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[digdug2k]

How is Trump getting away with constantly taking factual research, numbers and statistics and just calling them hoaxes?

Are his supporters just so anti-establishment that they'll listen to anything or are they all just stupid.

I know his primary fan base is the non-college educated white male demo and I don't mean to sound elitist but really only people with so disillusioned with the government and so ridiculously uninformed and ignorant can buy into this shit.

His economic "policy" does NOTHING to help the lower income families he claims to be championing and yet, they applaud.

He calls stats that proves him wrong hoaxes without giving a reason and yet, they applaud.

He says he has a feeling the election is going to rigged, just a feeling, the first time any candidate has even dared to suggest something to destructive and yet, they applaud.

This is all nothing new but how stupid can people get, and how power hungry and desperate was the GOP that they allowed this to happen and sit by and continue to support this mess while he undermines the very basic fabric of this election?

Wow. Just wow.

I listened to this speech for a while on the radio this morning, but.... isn't this all just the same basic Republican stuff they normally spout? I think Paul Ryan could have given this speech today, at least the part I heard.

I hadn't actually listened to any of his speeches until this one. The protesters are kinda annoying. They just drew the whole thing out. What do they hope to accomplish? Just to make sure everyone in the room knows that not everyone loves Mr Trump?

 

[WaffleTaco]

No.

Government debt is totally normal and the only times America hasn't been in debt we immediately had financial crises.

"Trillions" is a scary word but it just means there's an amount of debt commensurate with American GDP and taxation.

The R-R study about the dangers of debt load as a percentage of GDP has been debunked.

Treasury debt is currently trading at negative yields. People are paying money for the privilege of loaning cash to America, because they know it will be safe there.

For many years I've been arguing that we should be borrowing a lot more and spending it on infrastructure. I still think this but the fact that we might be near full employment is a little bit of a concern. But hey, let's goose that wage share of labor.

Honestly I'm going to come off as extremely stupid, because I have only taken Ecnomics 101 and I really don't remember too much. Anyway the gist of what you are saying is don't worry about it? I mean eventually we are going to have to pay it back right? My main thing about the debt, especially when arguing about politics is that Dems spend too much, and how are we/how could we pay for all of the services like free college and universal health care without spending so much more money. I usually just say taxes as an easy answer, but I really am looking for a better more explanatory one.

 

[HylianTom]

+13?

She didn't get a bounce.. she found Samus' Space Jump Boots. Hot damn.

 

[benjipwns]

At this point in 1976 Carter led Ford 54-32. And those were accurate polls, not lieberal polls that didn't account for reddit subscribers.

 

[Gruco]

Seriously, if you rightfully consider NH, PA, VA, and CO as Clinton states, Trump maxes out at 265 EV. In order to have a chance in hell he needs to swing one. If he wants to do better than tie, that one can't be NH.

 

[B-Dubs]

+13?

She didn't get a bounce.. she found Samus' Space Jump Boots. Hot damn.

Now we just have to see if she can use screw attack to keep that height.

 

[Fenderputty]

So I know this ain't economic Gaf, but is there any reason to be worried about the trillions of debt America is in?

Inflation says no.

Honestly I'm going to come off as extremely stupid, because I have only taken Ecnomics 101 and I really don't remember too much. Anyway the gist of what you are saying is don't worry about it? I mean eventually we are going to have to pay it back right? My main thing about the debt, especially when arguing about politics is that Dems spend too much, and how are we/how could we pay for all of the services like free college and universal health care without spending so much more money. I usually just say taxes as an easy answer, but I really am looking for a better more explanatory one.

We can print money. Taxes take money out of the economey. They're not used to fund programs. We put money in and take money out and watch for inflationary pressures at the most basic

 

[CygnusXS]

They want the indictment and conviction and sentencing over with already.

Little known fact: a similar case led to the creation of the Judges.

 

[Beer Monkey]

I'll say it again: need some polls from Ohio and hopefully Texas to see if this race is over before it even begins.

Kasich refusing to endorse Trump is hurting him here in Ohio, I see it all the time. I live in a blue county but work in one of the reddest large counties in the state. The republicans here are not enthused about Trump. And while most republicans fall in line, I expect to see fewer falling in line than in the last 20 years.

 

[Enter the Dragon Punch]

Jimmy Kimmel: Clinton Supporters Agree With Donald Trump Quotes

Pretty funny.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Now we just have to see if she can use screw attack to keep that height.

IDK she might get dizzy and have to be helped

 

[User 463088]

This is why I argue that PA is more important for Trump than Ohio

http://www.270towin.com/maps/0bWKx

If he loses PA, the best he can hope for is a 269-269 tie even if he takes Ohio. If he takes PA, but loses Ohio (incredibly unlikely, but whatever...)

http://www.270towin.com/maps/ldWJJ

Like I said, I don't think he wins PA. But PA is his best chance at winning the election.

 

[Basileus777]

Seriously, if you rightfully consider NH, PA, VA, and CO as Clinton states, Trump maxes out at 265 EV. In order to have a chance in hell he needs to swing one. If he wants to do better than tie, that one can't be NH.

Jut wait until we get some polling showing him down big in Florida.

 

[Incognito]

this mommouth outfit sounds like another rigged operation. awaiting hannity instructions.

 

[ampere]

For full info on the Monmouth poll:

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_080816/

Clinton 50
Trump 37 (!) <----GOP DEFCON 2

Hilldoge hitting that sweet 5 - 0

I hope to see more of this!

Wow.

The Tax Policy Center representative on NPR just eviscerated Trump's plan. Essentially labelled it a top down plan that has dubious ramifications for the bottom and middle of the tax bracket.

Reality has a liberal bias

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Remember, nearly everything right now is Trump's own self inflicted wounds from that horrible convention and his comments directly after it.

Yes, shit got real for people, however the entire swath of opposition research that the DNC has hasn't even really been touched up until this point.

I'm guessing at this point that is the "break open incase of October surprise" and they will coast till then.

 

[Holmes]

Without PA,VA,and CO he has absolutely no path. So he has to win a state that he's currently down double digits in to even have a narrow path.

Florida and Ohio don't even matter for the Presidency this cycle!

It was also the case in 2008, and in 2012 to a lesser extent. Without VA + NM/CO/NV, the Republicans are at a serious electoral college disadvantage. Republicans solidifying WV and KY isn't doing anything to help their chances.

 

[whyamihere]

How far do we think that Republicans can run ahead of Trump in the Senate?

Red state Democrats did a great job capitalizing on higher turnout in 2012 along with getting ticket splitting voters. Manchin ran 25% ahead of Obama. Heitkamp ran 11.54%. McCaskill ran 10.32%. Tester ran 6.88%. Donnelly ran 6.07%. Realistically, how much can Kirk/Johnson/Portman/Toomey/Burr/Blunt/McCain/Young/Grassley/Heck/Rubio expect to run ahead of Trump?

My guess is that Portman, Rubio and Grassley have the best chance of running far ahead of Trump, but I have no idea. How much can they expect? Even if they run 4-5% ahead of him, would that even matter in a 6-8 point race, nationally?

Remember that Heller only ran .22 ahead of Romney, but won because of a third party spoiler and the "None of these candidates" option.

Jut wait until we get some polling showing him down bigly in Florida.

ftfy

 

[B-Dubs]

Remember, nearly everything right now is Trump's own self inflicted wounds from that horrible convention and his comments directly after it.

Yes, shit got real for people, however the entire swath of opposition research that the DNC has hasn't even really been touched up until this point.

I'm guessing at this point that is the "break open incase of October surprise" and they will coast till then.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Clinton camp leaked smaller Trump scandals over the next two months to keep up the momentum if Trump doesn't supply them himself. Personally I give him a week before reverting to form.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Remember, nearly everything right now is Trump's own self inflicted wounds from that horrible convention and his comments directly after it.

Yes, shit got real for people, however the entire swath of opposition research that the DNC has hasn't even really been touched up until this point.

I'm guessing at this point that is the "break open incase of October surprise" and they will coast till then.

Yeah the question going forward is if the racist genie can be put up in the bottle. If the Khans caused this much damage, no amount of reboots, restarts, or whatever you wanna call it will be enough to get his support.

Especially if he keeps reading his policy speeches off a teleprompter and making it painfully obvious he hadn't read a word of the speech beforehand.

 

[gcubed]

How far do we think that Republicans can run ahead of Trump in the Senate?

Red state Democrats did a great job capitalizing on higher turnout in 2012 along with getting ticket splitting voters. Manchin ran 25% ahead of Obama. Heitkamp ran 11.54%. McCaskill ran 10.32%. Tester ran 6.88%. Donnelly ran 6.07%. Realistically, how much can Kirk/Johnson/Portman/Toomey/Burr/Blunt/McCain/Young/Grassley/Heck/Rubio expect to run ahead of Trump?

My guess is that Portman, Rubio and Grassley have the best chance of running far ahead of Trump, but I have no idea. How much can they expect? Even if they run 4-5% ahead of him, would that even matter in a 6-8 point race, nationally?

Remember that Heller only ran .22 ahead of Romney, but won because of a third party spoiler.



ftfy

i think that depends on if the people abandoned Trump, or if they abandoned him for Johnson

I think the big benefit of a blowout would be GOP voters staying home.

 

[Basileus777]

It was also the case in 2008, and in 2012 to a lesser extent. Without VA + NM/CO/NV, the Republicans are at a serious electoral college disadvantage. Republicans solidifying WV and KY isn't doing anything to help their chances.

It's just even more extreme now because Trump losses with college educated voters have turned CO and VA into states where he isn't even competitive.

 

[Retromelon]

so, gang, anyone have an idea how trump will reduce the debt without touching entitlements? Because if you cut taxes and there is little or no growth, then you've not only made the problem significantly worse, but you've also contributed to the rising trend of wealth inequality, which trump has paid lip service as being a bad thing.

 

[B-Dubs]

so, gang, anyone have an idea how trump will reduce the debt without touching entitlements? Because if you cut taxes and there is little or no growth, then you've not only made the problem significantly worse, but you've also contributed to the rising trend of wealth inequality, which trump has paid lip service as being a bad thing.

Laffer curve?

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

so, gang, anyone have an idea how trump will reduce the debt without touching entitlements? Because if you cut taxes and there is little or no growth, then you've not only made the problem significantly worse, but you've also contributed to the rising trend of wealth inequality, which trump has paid lip service as being a bad thing.

going into bankruptcy and renegotiate our debt with CHINA

 

[Basileus777]

so, gang, anyone have an idea how trump will reduce the debt without touching entitlements? Because if you cut taxes and there is little or no growth, then you've not only made the problem significantly worse, but you've also contributed to the rising trend of wealth inequality, which trump has paid lip service as being a bad thing.

Trump would cut taxes and watch the debt explode in time honored GOP tradition.

 

[brainchild]

You're being disingenuous, because this happens in the United States. Whenever an oppressed group tries to assert themselves, they have been shut down. This is especially true of organized groups who seek to change American society. Look at what happened to the Socialist Party, CPUSA, and the Black Panthers. Fred Hampton was quite literally murdered in his bed. Hell, MOVE and all its members were bombed in the fucking 1980s.

A socialist government absolutely shouldn't use force to maintain control, but neither should a capitalist government. Socialists who advocate for violent revolution aren't just being edgy. They believe that voting away wealth is impossible, especially when liberal democracy is so heavily dominated by the elite. While I don't consider myself revolutionary, there are volumes of evidence to support their belief.

If you're going to continue to ignore my actual argument, then we have nothing left to discuss. I'm not interested in your strawman about the fact that the US isn't being ruled and won't be ruled by authoritarian socialists, SINCE I'VE ALREADY SAID AS MUCH. I was talking about the far left [hypothetically] coming to power while still having fringe support and how they would be able to keep their power once they're in such a position.

HYPOTHETICALS, how do they work?!

 

[RustyNails]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Bi-iePG1O6SzduOV96VkRtTlk/view

Polling out of Illinois

Queen-51
Trump-32

But more interestingly

Tammy-44
Kirk-37

She's plus 4, he's down 1 since their last polling

The Duck vs Kirk is giving me anxiety. She has a court settlement looming over her and Kirk is hitting her very hard. His ads are all over Illinois.

 

[hawk2025]

so, gang, anyone have an idea how trump will reduce the debt without touching entitlements? Because if you cut taxes and there is little or no growth, then you've not only made the problem significantly worse, but you've also contributed to the rising trend of wealth inequality, which trump has paid lip service as being a bad thing.

Declare bankruptcy?

Haircuts?



Anyways... with the new poll:


Polls-Plus: 78.7%
Polls-Only: 86.6%
Nowcast: 95.4%

 

[nature boy]

Nate Cohn thinks South Carolina could be in play.

Kasich refusing to endorse Trump is hurting him here in Ohio, I see it all the time. I live in a blue county but work in one of the reddest large counties in the state. The republicans here are not enthused about Trump. And while most republicans fall in line, I expect to see fewer falling in line than in the last 20 years.

Interesting, could be an important factor, no popular governor endorsement and the perception he's going to lose.

 

[DopeyFish]

538 now has AZ dem lean on polls only and SC lean on now cast

Trump now sub 5% win chance on now

 

[User 463088]

HYPOTHETICALS, how do they work?!

I mean, hypothetically speaking.....

So, ya, this poll gives me hope that this bump is going to be sustained. I mean, the only evidence to the contrary is the pooy Reuters poll and who cares.

 

[whyamihere]

The Duck vs Kirk is giving me anxiety. She has a court settlement looming over her and Kirk is hitting her very hard. His ads are all over Illinois.

There are many things I worry about, but Duckworth getting elected is not one of them.

 

[Holmes]

538 now has AZ dem lean on polls only and SC lean on now cast

Trump now sub 5% win chance on now

 

[royalan]

Wait, the Never Trump movement just put up an actual candidate? This is happening?

 

[B-Dubs]

Wait, the Never Trump movement just put up an actual candidate? This is happening?

Nah, it's too late. This is just sour grapes that won't do shit.

 

[Basileus777]

Wait, the Never Trump movement just put up an actual candidate? This is happening?

McMullin probably won't be on the ballot in many states and few will notice his existence.

 

[User 463088]

The fact that we're living in a world in which smart people, very smart people (and Nate Silver) think there's a chance that SC might be slightly close?! Amazing. Such big league winning. I hope we win biggly.

 

[whyamihere]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/762708940350164992

@Nate_Cohn
I think that Alaska and South Carolina are about as interesting as third-tier battlegrounds as IN/MO

 

[campfireweekend]

Inflation says no.



We can print money. Taxes take money out of the economey. They're not used to fund programs. We put money in and take money out and watch for inflationary pressures at the most basic

This thread has a problem, and yes, I'm implicating you, with giving MMT responses to questions that have widely accepted answers in neo Keynesian economics.

No debt isn't a problem. This is because of debt to gdp ratio, which historically isn't too high, and globally pales compared to Japan. So if Japan hasn't exploded, with like 200% debt/gdp, why should we, when people trust American debt more than its Japanese counterpart.

Anything anyone says about printing money and using taxes to slow down inflation is spitting unproven fringe economics. They don't think interest rates have any effect on inflation because of straight IS/LM curves. That means they're crazy.

 

[Boke1879]

The fact that we're living in a world in which smart people, very smart people (and Nate Silver) think there's a chance that SC might be slightly close?! Amazing. Such big league winning. I hope we win biggly.

We're gonna win bigly folks.

 

[User 463088]

We're gonna win bigly folks.

We're going to tell Hillary STOP WINNING so bigly. Because we're going to be so sick and tired of winning. So tired of it.

 

[Aaron Strife]

How far do we think that Republicans can run ahead of Trump in the Senate?

Red state Democrats did a great job capitalizing on higher turnout in 2012 along with getting ticket splitting voters. Manchin ran 25% ahead of Obama. Heitkamp ran 11.54%. McCaskill ran 10.32%. Tester ran 6.88%. Donnelly ran 6.07%. Realistically, how much can Kirk/Johnson/Portman/Toomey/Burr/Blunt/McCain/Young/Grassley/Heck/Rubio expect to run ahead of Trump?

My guess is that Portman, Rubio and Grassley have the best chance of running far ahead of Trump, but I have no idea. How much can they expect? Even if they run 4-5% ahead of him, would that even matter in a 6-8 point race, nationally?

Remember that Heller only ran .22 ahead of Romney, but won because of a third party spoiler and the "None of these candidates" option.



ftfy

I'd say maybe five points.

McCaskill and Donnelly were aberrations due to weak opponents. Tester benefited from a third party candidate. Manchin never faced any serious opposition. Heitkamp might be the example the GOP would want to follow, but ND is also one of the more elastic states, correct?

I could see Portman and maybe Rubio winning in spite of a Clinton landslide, but I think Johnson, Kirk, Ayotte and Toomey are dead men (+woman) walking.

 

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/762708940350164992

Clinton should have residual ground game in South Carolina from the primaries that she can tap into, but Alaska not so much. And organizing in Alaska seems really annoying just for 3 electoral votes.

 

[RustyNails]

That Monmouth poll is near brutality for Trump. The LV screen basically concludes that Hillary's daunting lead with minorities is baked in and Trump's biggest loss is coming from white women with college degree. Romney won them in 2012 by 6 points, but Trump is trailing them by 20.

 

[ampere]

South Carolina!?

What's next, Texas is a battleground state?

 

[mo60]

538 now has AZ dem lean on polls only and SC lean on now cast

Trump now sub 5% win chance on now

I have been noticing the movement with SC awhile ago on 538's three models.

 

[User 463088]

South Carolina!?

What's next, Texas is a battleground state?

To be honest, I want to see some polling. I really, really do.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

South Carolina!?

What's next, Texas is a battleground state?

It is according to now-cast. Trump projected to win it by 3%.

But now-cast is a bad model and we should not look at it.

 

[BobTheFork]

Just label and Trump's whole plan as Brownback economics. done