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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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U

User 463088

Banned
nature boy said:
Diablosing over 6 EV.

C'mon. Trump's not going 3 for 3 in the South (GA,NC,SC). One of them at least will swing.
Click to expand...

I agree. What in the world....

Iowa is 6 EV. There have been two polls this week, one showing Hillary ahead by 4, one showing Trump ahead by 1. (Which has now been adjusted based on partisan lean to a tie by 538...which I still think is stupid). Not only is Trump ahead by 1 in the poll...he's, literally, only ahead by 7 respondents out of 500. SEVEN.

This is a state that is 93% white. She is currently ahead by at least 10 points in states that equal 273 electoral votes. We just got a poll showing her plus 3 in FL!

When the electoral map expands, it doesn't mean that you don't gain at the expense of something else. Iowa lacks the same level of college educated whites, African American and Latino voters that make up the coalition of the ascendant that is the current iteration of the Obama coalition.

Today's polling so far confirms a lead in Florida. It confirms a dominant lead in New Hampshire. It shows the potential for a pickup in South Carolina (and by extension confirming polling data in NC and GA, while raising questions about places like Texas). And a tight race in a state that is demographically made to fit Donald Trump.......

And a 1 point lead is the thing that causes polling amnesia?
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Here's 13 minutes of Rudy flailing against Chris Cuomo. The best part is at the end where Cuomo asks him to name one thing that Trump has apologized for, to which he responds that he apologized for his comments on McCain, which Trump never did. Then was made even better when Chris asked him if he would apologize if he ever said such a thing about McCain and he was like "dunno". Man, what a shitbag.

http://mediamatters.org/video/2016/...-comments-extreme-behavior-and-refusal/212326

adam387 said:
Or, according to Marist, she's up 4 in Iowa. You can't just decide that one poll is giving you the whole picture...especially when we have multiple polls to fall back on. Especially when Trump's lead is literally 7 votes out of a sample of 500 people.
Click to expand...

Didn't know we had more polls for Iowa today.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Every single person that says they approve of Obama in these polls but doesn't vote for Clinton (after Trump calls him the founder of ISIS and promises to destroy his legacy) is fucking dead to me.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
There need to be voter drives in Orlando. There are a lot of newly arrived Puerto Ricans who are citizens but don't vote yet.
Click to expand...
I believe Hillary is planning on doing just that. I read an article about a heavily PR community in Kissimmee where they received something like 8000 registrations in a week, and 90% of them were from people who had come to the state from the Island.

They decided they had to open up another polling location for early voting and election day voting based on the increase in registrations. I'll see if I can find the article once I get off work.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
adam387 said:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/QRnvw

BELIEVE! DON"T LET YOUR DREAMS STAY DREAMS!
DO IT!
Click to expand...

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Np67A

aNx2M89.gif
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Bowdz said:
Think about how every other losing candidate has behaved. Graciously concede defeat and then go silent for months allowing the party apparatus to reshape he party. That is not going to happen with Trump. I don't see the fractures in the GOP healing before 2020.
Click to expand...
Pat Buchanan and Bob Dole remained politically active in a party that redefined itself after their respective elections/losses.

TheLostBigBoss said:
Also did anyone expect some random dude to be able to get Trump supporters to vote for him en-mass in a primary?
Click to expand...
Eric Cantor certainly didn't expect some random professor to be able to get tea party supporters to vote for him en-mass in a primary.

pigeon said:
I don't buy this. The issue isn't the GOP's ability to keep down Trumpist candidates. The issue is that all the current GOP politicians have endorsed and supported Trump. This will be used against them, correctly, in every election they fight. They can't run from it even if they want to.
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That's an effective punch in a general election but not a primary. I'm saying that, ideologically, the party just snaps back to Romney after this election and normal GOP voters will actually vote the way they have again. Expect Hillary's coalition to be Obama's minus the white men that are gone but with increased participation to Hispanics. The party will just forget about Trump like a bad dream even if the Democrats try to bring him up again. After all, do the Republicans ever bring up Bush?

Paul Ryan didn't win because he rejected Trump. He didn't reject Trump. He supported Trump all the way down the line, and forced Trump to endorse him. The campaign against him failed because it was an impromptu mess and Paul Ryan is a great retail politician. But in November Paul Ryan, and all the other GOP house representatives, are going to have to take responsibility for Donald Trump.
Click to expand...
Not disagreeing with this. But our ongoing discussion has been about whether the Republican party will be different after this year. I'm arguing GOP reset/snap-back. Marco Robotos and Paul Ryans for everyone.
 
R

royalan

Member
Someone just brought this to my attention...

Where's Bernie "I will do everything in my power to make sure Trump doesn't make it into the White House" Sanders?

Now that Trump has come out with his trickle-down economic plan, you'd think he'd be out there front and center hammering him...
 
N

nature boy

Member
adam387 said:
I agree. What in the world....

Iowa is 6 EV. There have been two polls this week, one showing Hillary ahead by 4, one showing Trump ahead by 1. (Which has now been adjusted based on partisan lean to a tie by 538...which I still think is stupid). Not only is Trump ahead by 1 in the poll...he's, literally, only ahead by 7 respondents out of 500. SEVEN.

This is a state that is 93% white. She is currently ahead by at least 10 points in states that equal 273 electoral votes. We just got a poll showing her plus 3 in FL!

When the electoral map expands, it doesn't mean that you don't gain at the expense of something else. Iowa lacks the same level of college educated whites, African American and Latino voters that make up the coalition of the ascendant that is the current iteration of the Obama coalition.

Today's polling so far confirms a lead in Florida. It confirms a dominant lead in New Hampshire. It shows the potential for a pickup in South Carolina (and by extension confirming polling data in NC and GA, while raising questions about places like Texas). And a tight race in a state that is demographically made to fit Donald Trump.......

And a 1 point lead is the thing that causes polling amnesia?
Click to expand...

Even if Trump had Iowa locked up it's not reason to panic, when part of the South with more EV are up for grabs.

I just want that Texas poll, certainly it will under 10, which makes more a swing state than PA. Crazy to imagine that even a couple of months ago, but considering Trump seems to be preparing his loss already it's not that hard to imagine winning.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Honestly I wouldn't worry about Iowa in the end, just like I don't think Republicans should worry about South Carolina.
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
royalan said:
Someone just brought this to my attention...

Where's Bernie "I will do everything in my power to make sure Trump doesn't make it into the White House" Sanders?

Now that Trump has come out with his trickle-down economic plan, you'd think he'd be out there front and center hammering him...
Click to expand...

hahahahahaha

you thought he was actually going to campaign for her?
 
M

Maledict

Member
royalan said:
Someone just brought this to my attention...

Where's Bernie "I will do everything in my power to make sure Trump doesn't make it into the White House" Sanders?

Now that Trump has come out with his trickle-down economic plan, you'd think he'd be out there front and center hammering him...
Click to expand...

Right now the Democrat plan is to simply let Trump explode on a daily basis and work off that. As the linked times article put it:

He can set himself on fire at breakfast, kill a nun at lunch and waterboard a puppy in the afternoon. And that doesn’t even get us to prime time
Click to expand...

Bring out the policy guns when he's not in the middle of another immolation. Also bear in mind its the middle of summer so a relative quiet period.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
royalan said:
Someone just brought this to my attention...

Where's Bernie "I will do everything in my power to make sure Trump doesn't make it into the White House" Sanders?

Now that Trump has come out with his trickle-down economic plan, you'd think he'd be out there front and center hammering him...
Click to expand...

He bought a house. He's back to being an Independent from Vermont. He wrote an editorial that (barely) supported Hillary, and basically argued she understands things better than Trump.

We have Warren, the superior Bernie Sanders.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
Bernie continues to be the hilldawgs' favorite whipping boy because he won't campaign forher hard enough/disavow his most crazed supporters hard enough/denounce every stupid thing out of trump's mouth fast enough

Did it ever occur to you that maybe he's eating a bowl of fruity pebbles right now and has no idea about any of this
 
H

Holmes

Member
There really haven't been any Clinton surrogates making solo appearances on the trail for the general yet, has there? Aside from Kaine (if that counts) and Bill. I'm sure it'll ramp up after Labor Day, and I know Obama's pretty much scheduled to campaign throughout all of October.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Wilsongt said:
So how long before Hillary is sent to jail this time?
Click to expand...

Speaking of which, I swear it seems like conservatives are conspiring against me to not actually answer any questions about emailgate. Every time we have a thread on that subject, or if someone brings it up in an related (or unrelated) topic, these people will make some annoying offhand remark and then just disappear into the ether. :mad:
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Good Nate

Will Poundstone ‏@kernals12 43m43 minutes ago
@Nate_Cohn she must be doing well in Texas

Nate CohnVerified account
‏@Nate_Cohn
@kernals12 maybe a 6 pt race or so
Click to expand...

If ppp found her leading PoliGAF would implode.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
royalan said:
Someone just brought this to my attention...

Where's Bernie "I will do everything in my power to make sure Trump doesn't make it into the White House" Sanders?

Now that Trump has come out with his trickle-down economic plan, you'd think he'd be out there front and center hammering him...
Click to expand...

Hillary's up 8 and has basically already clinched the presidency, come on.
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Kristoffer said:
Pat Buchanan and Bob Dole remained politically active in a party that redefined itself after their respective elections/losses.

Eric Cantor certainly didn't expect some random professor to be able to get tea party supporters to vote for him en-mass in a primary.

That's an effective punch in a general election but not a primary. I'm saying that, ideologically, the party just snaps back to Romney after this election and normal GOP voters will actually vote the way they have again. Expect Hillary's coalition to be Obama's minus the white men that are gone but with increased participation to Hispanics. The party will just forget about Trump like a bad dream even if the Democrats try to bring him up again. After all, do the Republicans ever bring up Bush?

Not disagreeing with this. But our ongoing discussion has been about whether the Republican party will be different after this year. I'm arguing GOP reset/snap-back. Marco Robotos and Paul Ryans for everyone.
Click to expand...

Josh Marshall is arguing the opposite, that GOP elites recognize the hardcore Trumpers have to be appeased and aren't going anywhere, which is a sign they're stronger than the moderates. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-gathering-storm--2

I am not sure I agree, but only because it is all so unprecedented for leadership to disavow a presidential candidate after the convention, it may be that they are scared of doing something unprecedented rather than looking specifically disloyal to Trump or Trumpism.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
IggyChooChoo said:
Josh Marshall is arguing the opposite, that GOP elites recognize the hardcore Trumpers have to be appeased and aren't going anywhere, which is a sign they're stronger than the moderates. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-gathering-storm--2

I am not sure I agree, but only because it is all so unprecedented for leadership to disavow a presidential candidate after the convention, it may be that they are scared of doing something unprecedented rather than looking specifically disloyal to Trump or Trumpism.
Click to expand...
Interesting take. I guess we will see after the election :)
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
BenjaminBirdie said:
HAMILTUCK!!!

I went to school there, Hi5.
Click to expand...

Now, Hamilton, Ohio (the city) is in Butler County, not be be confused with Hamilton County, home of Cincinnati.

Hamilton, Ohio is frequently nicknamed "Hamiltucky".

And sadly, Trump will probably win Butler county by 20 points. That's how different the rural suburbs are from Cincinnati itself.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
BenjaminBirdie said:
aw what's wrong with silver
Click to expand...

He's turned pundit, as much as he denies it. And probably a bit too conservative on his predictions this election. A lot of people see it as a reaction to blowing it on Trump (he didn't believe he would win and was a bit of a pedant about it).

But, he's still one of the best out there and everybody still cares about what he says.
 
H

Holmes

Member
It's actually funny to think about how weak Hillary is in Iowa, all the way back from the 2008 caucus, to the 2016 caucus, to probably election day. I have no doubts that she'll win it, but it'll probably be a measly ~5% win, whereas neighbouring MN/WI/IL will all be double digit wins.
 
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