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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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E

Ecotic

Member
Part of me believes strongly that this is a stubborn bounce that will dissipate. Or that it's still too early. It's never been this easy.
 
J

Judderman

drawer by drawer
Slayven said:
.
Click to expand...

With the way things are going...

CjUMvhZWYAAw6UU.jpg
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K

kadotsu

Banned
While we're talking about fund raising. Trump has raised a considerable amount but you don't really see that money at work. Little staff and ad buys. What is he using that money for?
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Read why Iowa is a better state for Trump

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ed-in-iowa-and-it-may-hurt-democrats-in-2016/

Republican Sen.-elect Joni Ernst easily won her race in Iowa last Tuesday, beating Democrat Bruce Braley by 8.5 percentage points. Her victory wasn’t shocking, but its size was (to everyone except pollster Ann Selzer, that is). The final FiveThirtyEight projection had Ernst winning by just 1.5 percentage points.
Click to expand...

tldr: Iowa has a bigger white non-college educated voter base than VA or CO or NC.
 
O

Owzers

Member
i'm going to diablos about Trump winning until the election is over and i can take in Hannity crying about it. Until then, i expect the worst. The debates are going to be awful, with Trump telling Clinton maybe she should keep her husband from raping so many people if she was actually against it and to stop killing people in Benghazi. Debate prep better be against someone in full asshole mode.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-...04/mississippi-poll-2016-clinton-trump-221572

This was in April. I can't see how its not close right now in MS.
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The floor is super high for her. She just needs a 6 point swing from 2012 to do it. I don't know if it's worth the effort, but targeting the Vietnamese population on the Coast and going for the moral argument would flip it here. I suspect Vietnamese participation is usually low, but Trump is going to end up targeting them too (as a lot of them are Vietnam War refugees or their families). Older church ladies could be persuaded to vote their conscience.

Honestly, if I was a billionaire, I'd dump truckloads into a PAC for the Constitution Party. A theocratic party could take some votes here.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
whyamihere said:
Suffolk Iowa:

Trump: 41
Hillary: 40

Trump: 37
Hillary: 36
Johnson: 6
Stein: 3
Click to expand...

Iowa is the one state where she's underperforming, but I agree with Nate in that it's probably because of her reliance on college educated whites. In a state that's 90% white, Trump is leading by 7 poll respondents. Interestingly, 52% of the people in that poll think Hillary will win. Only 32% think Trump will.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
PPP:

Florida:

Hillary: 46
Trump: 43

Rubio: 42
Murphy: 40

New Hampshire:

Hillary: 50
Trump: 37

Hassan: 47
Ayotte: 42


Hillary has already won (at 273 EVs in states she's dominant in), now just need Rubio and Ryan to lose also in November.
 
T

Teggy

Member
adam387 said:
Iowa is the one state where she's underperforming, but I agree with Nate in that it's probably because of her reliance on college educated whites. In a state that's 90% white, Trump is leading by 7 poll respondents. Interestingly, 52% of the people in that poll think Hillary will win. Only 32% think Trump will.
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Nevada too. But it's really not a big deal if she's crushing Ohio, PA, VA, etc.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Maybe Trumpism Doesn't Work Without Trump
That House Speaker Paul Ryan easily won his congressional primary on Tuesday, by a nearly 70-point margin, should not have surprised anyone. Yet the political world was watching the result on tenterhooks, waiting for a surprise that never came. The fact that there was no upset was, in this season of political surprises, news of its own sort: a signal that perhaps the Trumpist ideology that has disrupted the Republican Party this year doesn’t work for anyone not named Donald Trump, and may not outlast him as a force in the GOP.
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Thus, even though Trump was technically on Ryan’s side, Nehlen’s candidacy was a test of whether there’s actually a latent constituency in the GOP base for a Trumpist ideology of populist nationalism. Some Trump fans believe he represents a larger philosophical movement to overthrow the longstanding priorities of the party’s donor class—that his victory in the presidential primary has revealed the secret preference of the party’s voters for an agenda antithetical to everything the elites hold dear. Ryan favors an interventionist foreign policy, cuts to entitlement programs, and immigration reform; Trump espouses the opposite.
Click to expand...

The signal sent by Tuesday’s result, though, is bolstered by other pieces of evidence this year. Establishment-friendly candidates have won Republican primaries across the board; another incumbent member of Congress endorsed by Trump in a primary, North Carolina’s Renee Ellmers, went down to defeat. On this evidence, Trump would seem to have neither political clout nor an ideological hold over the party whose nomination he’s taken.
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That’s why Ryan’s victory is cheering news to the Republicans-in-exile who are hoping to take their party back once Trump passes into history. “This is Ryan’s party, not Trump’s,” the Republican consultant Patrick Ruffini tweeted after the results were in Tuesday. It’s too soon to say for sure, but the Wisconsin primary offered anti-Trump Republicans hope that their 2016 nominee may represent an anomaly rather than a revolution from within.
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Expect successful party reset after Trump. That's why taking the house now and ramming Clinton's legislation down everyone's gaping throats is dire.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
PantherLotus said:
New Hampshire puts her over the top, but Florida is the no-doubter. Not PA.
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I disagree. PA is the central "key"stone state that Trump absolutely requires for his Rust Belt path which is not happening now

the NYT model shows it being hyper difficult to near impossible for him without PA at this moment

Rick Scott can fix Florida for Trump by screwing with long line ups and messing with polling station shenanigans.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Kristoffer said:
Maybe Trumpism Doesn't Work Without Trump
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The only problem with this is that Trump's not going to graciously fade away into the night when he loses. He's going to blame a rigged election and all of the Republicans that didn't support him as the reason he lost. His rabid fan base will probably be more inclined to believe him than the same never Trump people who will be claiming that they need.to be more inclusive to win. Think about how every other losing candidate has behaved. Graciously concede defeat and then go silent for months allowing the party apparatus to reshape he party. That is not going to happen with Trump. I don't see the fractures in the GOP healing before 2020.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
gutter_trash said:
I disagree. PA is the central "key"stone state that Trump absolutely requires for his Rust Belt path which is not happening now

the NYT model shows it being hyper difficult to near impossible for him without PA at this moment
Click to expand...

The same NYT model shows Florida being the most important in the paths-to-win analysis.

Here's the most helpful visual way of explaining this that I've seen, from 538:

GJfhGIL.png


Clearly PA is important, but NH is the state to watch because it's her least secure (lol) state needed to put her over the top. While Florida represents the 'this thing is over' harbinger of a landslide.

(I don't think there's a big separation between our points of view or sources here)
 
Z

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Im suprised he hasn't had more success in Penn. Seemed like his economic "policy" would try to pull out some of the residents. Maybe Penn is just allergic to bullshit.
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
Kristoffer said:
Maybe Trumpism Doesn't Work Without Trump

Expect successful party reset after Trump. That's why taking the house now and ramming Clinton's legislation down everyone's gaping throats is dire.
Click to expand...

Trump is a symptom of the ills of the GOP, not the cause.

Anyone can replace Trump with the same rhetoric and the same people will flock to him.

Also did anyone expect some random dude to be able to get Trump supporters to vote for him en-mass in a primary?
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
NH Republicans are George H.W. Bush Republicans. Trump pissed all over them and Ayotte is struggling to hold on her seat.

NH is out of reach for Trump
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Oblivion said:
Is this including Iowa (which she's currently losing)?
Click to expand...

Or, according to Marist, she's up 4 in Iowa. You can't just decide that one poll is giving you the whole picture...especially when we have multiple polls to fall back on. Especially when Trump's lead is literally 7 votes out of a sample of 500 people.
 
Z

Ziltoidia 9

Member
One thing im concerned about is the 40% of the population that usually doesn't vote. If he can bring out an additional 5% of white, poorer, working class people that don't usually vote, he could swing it just from that. Are the polls being conducted based on the 2012 model on who voted?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Kristoffer said:
Maybe Trumpism Doesn't Work Without Trump








Expect successful party reset after Trump. That's why taking the house now and ramming Clinton's legislation down everyone's gaping throats is dire.
Click to expand...

I don't buy this. The issue isn't the GOP's ability to keep down Trumpist candidates. The issue is that all the current GOP politicians have endorsed and supported Trump. This will be used against them, correctly, in every election they fight. They can't run from it even if they want to.

Paul Ryan didn't win because he rejected Trump. He didn't reject Trump. He supported Trump all the way down the line, and forced Trump to endorse him. The campaign against him failed because it was an impromptu mess and Paul Ryan is a great retail politician. But in November Paul Ryan, and all the other GOP house representatives, are going to have to take responsibility for Donald Trump.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Diablosing over 6 EV.

C'mon. Trump's not going 3 for 3 in the South (GA,NC,SC). One of them at least will swing.

In GA, from the Breibart poll out today:

Deeper inside the poll, Clinton leads Trump with significant minority communities: African-Americans, 82 percent to 13 percent; among Asian-Americans 53 percent to 42 percent, and among Hispanics 66 percent to 31 percent. Among white voters Trump leads Clinton 62 percent to 24 percent.
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Yeah wishful thinking.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
nature boy said:
Diablosing over 6 EV.

C'mon. Trump's not going 3 for 3 in the South (GA,NC,SC). One of them at least will swing.

In GA, from the Breibart poll out today:

Deeper inside the poll, Clinton leads Trump with significant minority communities: African-Americans, 82 percent to 13 percent; among Asian-Americans 53 percent to 42 percent, and among Hispanics 66 percent to 31 percent. Among white voters Trump leads Clinton 62 percent to 24 percent.
Click to expand...

Yeah wishful thinking.
Click to expand...

None of those demographics are accurate, not even close.
 
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