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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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Tarkus

Member
Because it's Indiana?

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Chris Christie's son?
 
Seriously who're you all worried about getting complacent who's actively reading this thread? Adam? The dozen salty banned accelerationists?

idk mane. Dunno if I can be bothered to vote TBH. I've only waited for this day since 2004. I could go either way. She's so far ahead, my vote in Ohio won't mane a difference. Might get drunk on pineapple vodka and Dr Pepper (which actually works together, believe it or not)

Chris Christie's son?

That's cold brah. Even Indiana doesn't deserve to have a Christie attend school there.

To be clear, i only dislike Indiana's football team. Well, I say dislike. That's a strong emotion, and probably the most emotion Indiana's football team has brought out in a decade or two.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Sanders and Trump both got 45% -the same anti-establishment forces were present on both ends. Difference being, there were 0 good candidates on the GOP side this cycle.

I also don't think Sanders gets nearly as much traction vs a non-Clinton field.

I'd agree with this - if you had 3 or 4 other democrats running, Sanders could have gone into the convention with the most delegates due to game theory.

True but the Obamacare news today was really bad, and I'm not sure it can survive another four years of suffocation from House republicans.

Yeah - the problem is that the major way to fix ACA is to basically amp up the penalties for not having health insurance - the penalty to not have health insurance is really low, and many of the young, healthy folks that would even out the pool just decide to not have health insurance.

So happy about the new FL numbers. While we celebrate, I want to share this Quora answer with you. I especially find the comparrison of Hillary and Bill interesting. Being a bonafied extrovert myself, I occasionally have to force myself to hit the breaks and let the room breathe for a minute. To better understand the dynamics of being extrovert or introvert, or somewhere in the middle. I read Susan Cain's book and it's so interesting and sad to read about how we in the western world has shifted from lauding "men of character" to "men of personality".

Kathy Hutchinson
64.5k Views
One of my very best friends absolutely hated Hillary Clinton. She totally despised HRC for not leaving Bill when he cheated, and she bought into the argument that HRC was only out for herself and would do anything for power.

Well, my friend was one of the high level staff at Columbia Baptist Hospital in NY, where Bill was brought after his heart attack. My friend was directly responsible for interacting with both Clintons during Bill’s stay. She called me, contrite, and said that she had to eat humble pie, because HRC was one of the most pleasant, most interesting, kindest persons that she had ever had to deal with ( and she is used to dealing with VIPs). She also said that she had to beat the nurses off Bill with a stick because he has so much charisma that everyone falls under his spell.

Because HRC is not as natural with people the way Bill is, it is easy to portray her as “not a people person”, or as a cold fish. When people meet her one on one, they get a totally different impression. I suspect HRC is a lovely person, but an introvert who pales in social skills next to her very gregarious husband.

Bingo. A chunk of Hillary's perception problem is that she is married to arguably the most charismatic human being on the planet. Compared to him, she's going to look terrible.

Vs a Mitt Romney Clinton would be in a rough race.

But vs Trump,Clinton has very specific strengths relative to an "up and comer" like '08 Obama that make her very appealing to moderate Rs.

I think Romney beats Clinton this year - the wikileaks / email stuff would have been much bigger news if Trump wasn't saying something new and ridiculous every day.
 
Donald J. TrumpVerified account
‏@realDonaldTrump
'It's just a 2-point race, Clinton 38%, Trump 36%'

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/pow-its-just-a-2-point-race-clinton-38-trump-36/article/2599471

The convention polling bumps for Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton and Republican Donald Trump are over, and they are practically even, according to a new poll of likely voters.

A Zogby Analytics survey provided to Secrets Tuesday shows:

Hillary Clinton 38%

Donald Trump 36%


Trump's team believes that online polls more accurately show the horserace because more and more voters prefer to give their opinions anonymously.

Pollster John Zogby is a specialist in digging into specific voting blocks, some of which he has given names like NASCAR and Weekly Walmart voters. Zogby revealed in the new poll analysis that those two groups of voters trended Democratic under President Obama, but are now behind Trump.

Overall, Zogby said that Clinton leads middle income voters, blacks, women and Hispanics. Trump leads among independents, men and older voters.

LMAO
 

Slayven

Member
A more interesting question is not "is it over?" but "what was the time of death?"

I'm torn between that crazy post-RNC presser where Trump went after Cruz or when Khan went ham with that pocket Constitution on the DNC stage.

Runner up: Joe Biden's ethering of Trump at the DNC.

Trump's campaign was already dead when the DNC started. The RNC failed to put his campaign in a viable framing.

I say the Khan thing was the final nail
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
A more interesting question is not "is it over?" but "what was the time of death?"

I'm torn between that crazy post-RNC presser where Trump went after Cruz or when Khan went ham with that pocket Constitution on the DNC stage.

Runner up: Joe Biden's ethering of Trump at the DNC.

Trump's campaign was fatally wounded when the DNC started. The RNC failed to put his campaign in a viable framing.

I'd say the Khantroversy was the point of no return.
 
When we get into the final week(s), I wonder if Trump's campaign would attempt the last ditch effort of trying to reduce democratic voting by playing up that it's over and you don't need to vote?

Logic would dictate NO, that's fucking stupid.

I think it was back in 2008 when calls were being placed to black neighborhoods from murky sources on election day telling people that Obama had it in the bag and there was no need to vote. Of course that kind of approach has all the subtlety of flyers telling voters that due to high turnout Democrats will vote on Wednesday. I can't imagine it fools many people.
 
It's so crazy that the candidate would be flogging a single poll like this instead of his surrogates and minions.

It's also Zogby, welcome back sweet prince.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
I can't believe he just did this.

As I said on the Twitters, Trump and his minions (well, okay mostly his minions) had to dig and dig and dig to find one poll, ANY poll that made him look good, and the best they could come up with was one that STILL has him losing by +2. This is amazing.
 
If people are calling Texas a swing state, is it fair to say it's pretty much over and the fat lady has sung?

I don't think Texas is really a swing state because no one is going to really make a play for it on the Dem side. It's "swung" towards us a bit, but it's not super in play. (And even if it was, it's not worth the investment to run ads.) Now the other stuff? We should do, but not at the expense of the real swing states of Arizona and Georgia.
 
I would to be in the room when he's pitching to donors:

"Only 2 points behind! Don't give up!"
"Oh really? Which poll?"
"Zogby"
"OK, this money goes to down ballot races."
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Great polls there!

Now, I just want to come back to this question and riff on it a bit, because since I'm an old guy, this approach always infuriates me and I'm guessing some of you youngsters don't get it.

Stupid question : Given that this election is so absurdly different, would it be a foolish strategy to target the seniors in Texas with a heavy bombardement of adds that SOLELY focus on the future of their grand children ? History reveals that this is a reliably Republican demographic, but maybe history is changing enough right now to create a snowball effect, that could push them the last final steps towards the Dems ? ?

Yes, it would be a foolish strategy. Because old people aren't really all that different from young people. They are not less vested in the future because they are old, they are not voting short term because they'll die sooner, they are voting - just like everybody else is voting - for what they think is best for the future. Bombard them with "think of the children" adverts and all they will do is double down on what they already think.

If they think that an America free of immigration, free of abortion, Christian-dominated and isolated from world trade is what they want, then that is also what they will want for their grandchildren.

(It's the politicians, not the voters, who are thinking short term.)

If you're going to do something targeted at older voters you need to focus on history rather than the future, because the one thing older people have in common is they have long memories.

So instead, take aim at past missteps. So, for example, point out the long-term impact of the Southern Strategy where the Republicans fought against change and lost out big time further down the road because social change happens anyhow and they alienated huge chunks of the electorate. The Reps are making the same mistake now, the party that embraced the social change is winning big time. If you don't want the Republican party to die off altogether don't vote for Trump.

Something like that at least.

(Sorry for the rant, but I get utterly fed up with old people being blamed for conservatism, Brexit etc etc when usually nobody has actually tried to engage them properly; and totally irate with the line that "they'll all die off soon anyway". Yes I know I will, and I really don't need reminding of it.)
 
Trump town hall in Milwaukee moderated by Hannibal, tonight 10 pm ET
Yeah right. I'm 100% positive the entire thing will be scripted. Trump will be given the questions beforehand. There will be some poor woman who cries because OBAMACARE has burdened her. This is Hannity's project to save his orange master.
 

Tarkus

Member
Aww, shit. i don't think I can watch that. I'm going to be doing literally anything else in the world at that time. Shit.
I'm sure you'll be a doing a whole lotta of nothing, trashed off of a mixed drink made from some shitty flavored Pinnacle Vodka and a soda.
 
Also, while I'm not sold on the UPI/Cvoter method, I do think their latest release kind of gives us an indication that Hillary's bounce is solidified. She's adding to her lead, Over the last 7 days she's added 1.3 points to her lead, while Trump has stayed flat.

If this is the new normal, it's over...but not over, because fear is a powerful motivator, etc.
 
Yeah right. I'm 100% positive the entire thing will be scripted. Trump will be given the questions beforehand. There will be some poor woman who cries because OBAMACARE has burdened her. This is Hannity's project to save his orange master.

Tempted to watch because there's a HE'S AN ARAB style moment waiting to happen at one of these town halls when one of his supporters goes off the reservation.
 
I don't think Texas is really a swing state because no one is going to really make a play for it on the Dem side. It's "swung" towards us a bit, but it's not super in play. (And even if it was, it's not worth the investment to run ads.) Now the other stuff? We should do, but not at the expense of the real swing states of Arizona and Georgia.

What other stuff?
 
Great polls there!

Now, I just want to come back to this question and riff on it a bit, because since I'm an old guy, this approach always infuriates me and I'm guessing some of you youngsters don't get it.



Yes, it would be a foolish strategy. Because old people aren't really all that different from young people. They are not less vested in the future because they are old, they are not voting short term because they'll die sooner, they are voting - just like everybody else is voting - for what they think is best for the future. Bombard them with "think of the children" adverts and all they will do is double down on what they already think.

If they think that an America free of immigration, free of abortion, Christian-dominated and isolated from world trade is what they want, then that is also what they will want for their grandchildren.

(It's the politicians, not the voters, who are thinking short term.)

If you're going to do something targeted at older voters you need to focus on history rather than the future, because the one thing older people have in common is they have long memories.

So instead, take aim at past missteps. So, for example, point out the long-term impact of the Southern Strategy where the Republicans fought against change and lost out big time further down the road because social change happens anyhow and they alienated huge chunks of the electorate. The Reps are making the same mistake now, the party that embraced the social change is winning big time. If you don't want the Republican party to die off altogether don't vote for Trump.

Something like that at least.

(Sorry for the rant, but I get utterly fed up with old people being blamed for conservatism, Brexit etc etc when usually nobody has actually tried to engage them properly; and totally irate with the line that "they'll all die off soon anyway". Yes I know I will, and I really don't need reminding of it.)

Great post.

If I may ask, how old are you? At nearly 50 I feel like one of the oldest people here (me and the Mankies).
 
What other stuff?

Voter registration. Some targeted GOTV with Hispanic voters (mainly). Anything to increase attention winnable congressional districts. Maybe a few radio/print ads if you're really feeling it. Most important thing is to work on creating a Democratic infrastructure. Get those people registered. Make them feel comfortable voting democratic.
 
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