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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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hawk2025

Member
My election night THANG is going to the cinema to catch a movie or two as polls close, then checking the results afterwards. Sounds like I can catch an early movie and a single bill to boot.

We watched the results come in with my whole PhD program in 2012.

Drinks, cheering, etc as states came in. There were a couple of Republicans, too.

Ah, those were the good days. It was actually fun to debate with the Republicans and why they wanted Romney. Now they don't support Trump :(

Not sure what to do this year to watch the results. I wonder if bars hold election night events.
 

Grief.exe

Member
Trump can't win without Florida. Period.

Now we focus on the Senate races, I guess. The presidential race is over.

Nah, we are going to have more Russian-sponsored leaks and a potential perjury attempt from the House Benghazi Committee to look forward to.
 
1. I came for Florida polling.

2. https://newrepublic.com/article/136046/conservatives-laughable-effort-blame-liberals-trump

3. You all need to read that twice. Such a good, sober, honest accounting of this nonsense idea that smug liberal attacks on Romney are the reason we have Trump as a GOP nominee. What a fantastic article.

Choice sections:

Thanks for sharing. It is a great article.

Personally I wouldn't say it's laughable, but that it's actually hilarious. Gosh, I mean I hope it actually happened like that. That since we always called them racists, and idiots, and unfit to govern and all that, that they let that blind them to Trump outwardly and blatantly being all of those things.

In the boy who cried Wolf, the boy gets eaten, because he has lied about there being a wolf. It is his fault that the people of the town don't believe him. They didn't see the wolf.

*HERE* however, what has apparently happened, is that a wolf has wandered into town, and is hanging around with all the people and the boy has gone 'Look, that's a fucking wolf. I know I accused other people of being a wolf before, but that is a fucking wolf with a hat on. He's got fangs and claws and four legs and fur and he's fucking howling at the goddamn moon' and the towns people said 'Come on. We aren't falling for your lies again.'

In this version of the boy who cried wolf, the villagers get eaten.. and deservedly so.
 
Megan McArdle has a tweetstorm (along with an article I think) right now about the problems Obamacare is facing w/ providers pulling out.

She thinks that if the Dems don't get it fixed it's going to be a huge issue for them in 2020, and I don't think she's wrong. We need a tidal wave (and a dead fillibuster) to get changes in there pronto.

I agree. It's really bad, and they really need some reforms (YOU KNOW, THE STUFF YOU TINKER WITH AFTER A LAW IS PASSED TO SEE WHAT NEEDS TO BE CHANGED FOR THINGS YOU DIDN'T THINK OF/COULDN'T THINK OF WHILE DRAFT THE LAW) or else it's going to be a huge problem.
 
I'm feeling this is very possible. I think Trump might have a floor below 40 if he doesn't show to the debates, given the PPP Texas poll questions

Trump's campaign is like what would happen if a trainwreck collided with a dumpster fire but 15 points is hard to believe. There hasn't been a spread of more than 10 since Reagan won 49 states in '84.
 

Grief.exe

Member
Megan McArdle has a tweetstorm (along with an article I think) right now about the problems Obamacare is facing w/ providers pulling out.

She thinks that if the Dems don't get it fixed it's going to be a huge issue for them in 2020, and I don't think she's wrong. We need a tidal wave (and a dead fillibuster) to get changes in there pronto.

I agree. It's really bad, and they really need some reforms (YOU KNOW, THE STUFF YOU TINKER WITH AFTER A LAW IS PASSED TO SEE WHAT NEEDS TO BE CHANGED FOR THINGS YOU DIDN'T THINK OF/COULDN'T THINK OF WHILE DRAFT THE LAW) or else it's going to be a huge problem.

Obama would potentially be a good surrogate to help drum up public support for the tinkering.
 
I agree. It's really bad, and they really need some reforms (YOU KNOW, THE STUFF YOU TINKER WITH AFTER A LAW IS PASSED TO SEE WHAT NEEDS TO BE CHANGED FOR THINGS YOU DIDN'T THINK OF/COULDN'T THINK OF WHILE DRAFT THE LAW) or else it's going to be a huge problem.

Clinton is promising these kinds of fixes, and is the type of wonk to get this done. More reason to want her to be President I say.
 

Diablos

Member
I agree. It's really bad, and they really need some reforms (YOU KNOW, THE STUFF YOU TINKER WITH AFTER A LAW IS PASSED TO SEE WHAT NEEDS TO BE CHANGED FOR THINGS YOU DIDN'T THINK OF/COULDN'T THINK OF WHILE DRAFT THE LAW) or else it's going to be a huge problem.
I'm sure Dems didn't anticipate getting beat so badly in 2010. That was such a huge setback.

I'm not sure what they can do. Maybe Hillary can work some executive order magic with a liberal SCOTUS backing her. Ugh. No way is anything getting done without the House.
 

Maledict

Member
Megan McArdle has a tweetstorm (along with an article I think) right now about the problems Obamacare is facing w/ providers pulling out.

She thinks that if the Dems don't get it fixed it's going to be a huge issue for them in 2020, and I don't think she's wrong. We need a tidal wave (and a dead fillibuster) to get changes in there pronto.

The problem is that without the tidal wave nothing will happen. All it takes is an ultra slim house majority for the republicans and any prospect of fixing it dies. And with that, any chance of improving it or moving towards better options.

There's only so long the USA can function without a working government, but it seems like the republicans are willing to test that notion as far as they can.
 

Kusagari

Member
More Florida voters approve (47%) than disapprove (39%) of the job Rubio has done in his term as U.S. Senator. Also, 40% of Florida voters hold a favorable opinion of Rubio and 33% have an unfavorable view, with 27% expressing no opinion of him personally. Rubio’s Democratic opponents are not as well known. Murphy earns a 22% favorable and 10% unfavorable rating, with 68% having no opinion. Grayson has a 14% favorable and 21% unfavorable rating, with 66% having no opinion.

Nobody still knows who the hell Murphy is. That's the problem.
 

kirblar

Member
I'm sure Dems didn't anticipate getting beat so badly in 2010. That was such a huge setback.

I'm not sure what they can do. Maybe Hillary can work some executive order magic with a liberal SCOTUS backing her. Ugh. No way is anything getting done without the House.
This is why if you get all 3, you bust the fillibuster.

The political reality may be that you can't pass anything with 59 votes.

The public doesn't care. They see you in control not doing anything. You own it, regardless of the actual reality.
 
Clinton is promising these kinds of fixes, and is the type of wonk to get this done. More reason to want her to be President I say.

No, definitely.

Does the ACA give the DHS some leeway in order to change ways in which they can try to carrot insurers to stay on the exchanges? That would be a temporary fix, since we're also seeing premiums increasing significantly -- that, of course, could be neutered by a public option.
 

Diablos

Member
This is why if you get all 3, you bust the fillibuster.

The political reality may be that you can't pass anything with 59 votes.

The public doesn't care. They see you in control not doing anything. You own it, regardless of the actual reality.
If you get all three you pass it via reconciliation/simple majority
 

TyrantII

Member
Megan McArdle has a tweetstorm (along with an article I think) right now about the problems Obamacare is facing w/ providers pulling out.

She thinks that if the Dems don't get it fixed it's going to be a huge issue for them in 2020, and I don't think she's wrong. We need a tidal wave (and a dead fillibuster) to get changes in there pronto.

McArdle is never right. Not even twice a day. Shes a hack pundit.
 

Holmes

Member
Uh, I sincerely doubt Clinton's margin of victory will be 16%, even if Trump calls her a bitch to her face in the debates. The country's gotten that polarized. I am comfortable in predicting that Clinton will win the white women vote nationally though, and the white vote will be a single digit win for Trump, maybe around 7% or so. Republicans will be hurting for a while and I think the establishment will take most of the blame.
 

Emarv

Member
I've felt pretty consistent about a +6.5 election night. Her ceiling if Trump falls apart is probably +10 and like 375 EVs. I'm not a believer in the huge double digit and 400 EVs dream.
 

kirblar

Member
The Senate map looks just like the House one btw- the majority of the "in play" seats are currently red- I think there's only 1 blue "danger" seat at the moment.
 
Uh, I sincerely doubt Clinton's margin of victory will be 16%, even if Trump calls her a bitch to her face in the debates. The country's gotten that polarized. I am comfortable in predicting that Clinton will win the white women vote nationally though, and the white vote will be a single digit win for Trump, maybe around 7% or so. Republicans will be hurting for a while and I think the establishment will take most of the blame.

Pretty sure the establishment gets off scot free for this one. The Trump phenomenon happened despite everyone in the GOP establishment screaming their heads off that this was a bad idea.

This is 100% on the lunatic fringe here that demanded a political outsider.
 

Iolo

Member
So you're saying she needs to do some ads in Korean?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...8a4282-37d3-11e6-9ccd-d6005beac8b3_story.html

But this year, there are new pockets of potential voters to register — and a new reason to draw them out: Donald Trump. The presumptive Republican nominee’s controversial statements about Muslims, Mexicans and immigrants have alienated legions of nonwhite Americans. The challenge for Democrats is to find those Americans and make sure they are eligible to vote. That’s exactly what they’re doing in a strong push across the country.

“It’s definitely affected me to a very real sense. It’s personal because I come from a family of immigrants,” said John Choi, a 28-year-old Korean American who grew up in Gwinnett County and has seen the Asian population balloon there in recent years. A former staffer on a gubernatorial campaign in Massachusetts, Choi is outspoken about politics among his friends — but this year has made him more so.

...

In all these places, thousands of U.S. citizens of Asian descent aren’t registered to vote.

Many haven’t voted for a simple reason: They never thought to do so, and no one approached them about it before. They say they are unfamiliar with the American voting process and display tacit apathy. That makes them ripe for education and persuasion, and it explains why civic organizations across the country are working to engage them in politics, one voter at a time.

In Gwinnett County, outside Atlanta, the Asian population has grown more recently than in states such as California, Virginia and New York. Here, the grass-roots effort is slow and painstaking, relying on volunteers like Nguyen, proficient in eligible voters’ language and able to explain registration deadlines as well as the intersection of policy and everyday life.

...

Gwinnett County is home to one of the three highest populations of Asian Americans — mainly South Asians, Koreans, Chinese and Vietnamese.

That makes these Americans a potentially valuable slice of the electorate, able to make the difference in battleground states where margins of victory are slim.

AAAJ is part of a coalition of Asian American/Pacific Islander organizations directing civic engagement and voter outreach this year. The effort is ongoing in at least 25 states, tapping into existing community, faith, legal-aid and health organizations and creating local branches of national civic organizations in key areas such as Gwinnett County.
 

Holmes

Member
lol

Real talk, some minority outreach in the northern arc would do some good. Maybe steer clear of Forsyth County, but Cobb and Gwinnett are fair game.
Cobb and Gwinnett are important counties to flip for Democrats to win in Georgia, and so is Henry (a Romney county that Deal and Nunn both carry in 2014). Turnout in Atlanta, Savannah and the Black Belt needs to be pushed higher than ever before too.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Meh...still way too early to say the race is over.
 

kirblar

Member
Pretty sure the establishment gets off scot free for this one. The Trump phenomenon happened despite everyone in the GOP establishment screaming their heads off that this was a bad idea.

This is 100% on the lunatic fringe here that demanded a political outsider.
Sanders and Trump both got 45% -the same anti-establishment forces were present on both ends. Difference being, there were 0 good candidates on the GOP side this cycle.

I also don't think Sanders gets nearly as much traction vs a non-Clinton field.
 

Holmes

Member
Pretty sure the establishment gets off scot free for this one. The Trump phenomenon happened despite everyone in the GOP establishment screaming their heads off that this was a bad idea.

This is 100% on the lunatic fringe here that demanded a political outsider.
The people that voted to nominate Trump will be the same people voting in the GOP primary in 2020. They'll hate the establishment even more for not doing more to help Trump. I really doubt many of them will have a "come to Jesus" moment and suddenly be down with the establishment if (when) Trump loses.
 

TheFatOne

Member
Pretty sure the establishment gets off scot free for this one. The Trump phenomenon happened despite everyone in the GOP establishment screaming their heads off that this was a bad idea.

This is 100% on the lunatic fringe here that demanded a political outsider.

That fringe is their base though. It's not just some small number. You are talking about a big chunk of their voting block. Something like 35-45%. They have pandered to this part of their block for a long while now. Can't put the genie back into the bottle once you let it out. GOP establishment is going to feel the pain on from this cycle for a long time.

Edit: Talk show hosts like Hanity are already spinning it to that part of their base that if Trump loses it's the establishments fault.
 
Meh...still way too early to say the race is over.

These aren't margins that people can come back from, though. Sure, technically the race is not over, and you have to take the race seriously until Election Day. Something could happen. But, it's becoming increasingly unlikely with no signs of a Trump resurgence.

I forgot which podcaster said it, but it was something like "It's too early to say the race is over, but when we look back there's a chance we'll say 'that's when it was over'".

This is right.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
True but the Obamacare news today was really bad, and I'm not sure it can survive another four years of suffocation from House republicans.

Normally Congress would be able to patch-up the law a bit here and there so that it could adapt to unforeseen circumstances, but as you point out the GOP ain't having none of that.
 
Taniel ‏@Taniel 44m44 minutes ago
Today's state polls: Clinton leads by more in Virginia (+14% RV, +7% LV) & in Florida (+9%) than Trump leads in Texas (+6%).
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Thanks for sharing. It is a great article.

Personally I wouldn't say it's laughable, but that it's actually hilarious. Gosh, I mean I hope it actually happened like that. That since we always called them racists, and idiots, and unfit to govern and all that, that they let that blind them to Trump outwardly and blatantly being all of those things.

In the boy who cried Wolf, the boy gets eaten, because he has lied about there being a wolf. It is his fault that the people of the town don't believe him. They didn't see the wolf.

*HERE* however, what has apparently happened, is that a wolf has wandered into town, and is hanging around with all the people and the boy has gone 'Look, that's a fucking wolf. I know I accused other people of being a wolf before, but that is a fucking wolf with a hat on. He's got fangs and claws and four legs and fur and he's fucking howling at the goddamn moon' and the towns people said 'Come on. We aren't falling for your lies again.'

In this version of the boy who cried wolf, the villagers get eaten.. and deservedly so.

Not exactly. In this story, the wolf was real the whole time.
 
Meh...still way too early to say the race is over.

It's over.

Even if he ran a proper campaign, it's difficult to change perceptions.

The question becomes how big the Clinton victory is, and how Trump was a gift from Heaven, because Clinton is far from unbeatable.
 
I forgot which podcaster said it, but it was something like "It's too early to say the race is over, but when we look back there's a chance we'll say 'that's when it was over'".

Nate Cohn, maybe? He said something similar in an article. Basically "when we look back from after election day, we'll either be saying 'the race was over in August' or 'August was the beginning of the most unprecedented and unexpectedly impressive comeback in American political history.'"
 
Sanders and Trump both got 45%

Not exactly. Trump benefited from his opposition dropping out before the official end of the primary. He was unopposed for NE,WV,OR,WA,CA,MT,NJ,NM, and SD.

That inflates his popular vote total vs Sanders- who faced viable competition throughout the primary and split support with Clinton.

-the same anti-establishment forces were present on both ends. Difference being, there were 0 good candidates on the GOP side this cycle.

absolutely not. There is a big difference between the "we want more liberal policies" crowd that backed sanders and the "fuck it, burn it all down" crowd that backed Trump and simply did not care that he had no actual policies and was laughably unqualified for office.

I also don't think Sanders gets nearly as much traction vs a non-Clinton field.

depends on who was running against him. If Clinton magically wasn't available there are any number of other democratic politicians that could be viable contenders, and not all of them have particularly clean hands. We've been a bit spoiled that Obama and Biden have been entirely scandal free throughout their careers.
 
Cobb and Gwinnett are important counties to flip for Democrats to win in Georgia, and so is Henry (a Romney county that Deal and Nunn both carry in 2014). Turnout in Atlanta, Savannah and the Black Belt needs to be pushed higher than ever before too.

I'm doubtful it will flip, but out and about here in Cherokee County, I'm surprise at all the anti-Trump chatter in stores and restaurants.
 

jevity

Member
So happy about the new FL numbers. While we celebrate, I want to share this Quora answer with you. I especially find the comparrison of Hillary and Bill interesting. Being a bonafied extrovert myself, I occasionally have to force myself to hit the breaks and let the room breathe for a minute. To better understand the dynamics of being extrovert or introvert, or somewhere in the middle. I read Susan Cain's book and it's so interesting and sad to read about how we in the western world has shifted from lauding "men of character" to "men of personality".

Kathy Hutchinson
64.5k Views
One of my very best friends absolutely hated Hillary Clinton. She totally despised HRC for not leaving Bill when he cheated, and she bought into the argument that HRC was only out for herself and would do anything for power.

Well, my friend was one of the high level staff at Columbia Baptist Hospital in NY, where Bill was brought after his heart attack. My friend was directly responsible for interacting with both Clintons during Bill’s stay. She called me, contrite, and said that she had to eat humble pie, because HRC was one of the most pleasant, most interesting, kindest persons that she had ever had to deal with ( and she is used to dealing with VIPs). She also said that she had to beat the nurses off Bill with a stick because he has so much charisma that everyone falls under his spell.

Because HRC is not as natural with people the way Bill is, it is easy to portray her as “not a people person”, or as a cold fish. When people meet her one on one, they get a totally different impression. I suspect HRC is a lovely person, but an introvert who pales in social skills next to her very gregarious husband.
 
Florida democrats are a fucking embarrassment if they manage to lose to Rubio.

How much attack material did he fucking gift rap to you during this primary. Something a political opponent could only dream of, and he's not damage proof like Trump.

He talked about the size of his dick in a presidential debate. FFS beat him you useless POS
 

kirblar

Member
It's over.

Even if he ran a proper campaign, it's difficult to change perceptions.

The question becomes how big the Clinton victory is, and how Trump was a gift from Heaven, because Clinton is far from unbeatable.
Vs a Mitt Romney Clinton would be in a rough race.

But vs Trump,Clinton has very specific strengths relative to an "up and comer" like '08 Obama that make her very appealing to moderate Rs.
 
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