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[Joeytj]

They sure drew Teddy a nice body there...

Oh geez, I need help.

 

[nature boy]

Oh, you're watching Halperin? God bless you. Let me know how that works out for you.

My local news (Ohio) is covering the difference between Hillary's ground game and Trump's.

Hint: Only one candidate has a ground game.

Halperin is Halperin, but WADR has good guests. And Kornacki sucks.

Senate race in Missouri also close.

 

[RustyNails]

The last good FF was FF X-2

Cant disagree. But the last good mainline FF was FFX. And thats 15 years ago. Good lord.

 

[Slacker]

I liked FFXII a lot too. I liked the more strategic battle system.

 

[teiresias]

Trump aides still talking about him discussing "Law and Order." Do these people not realize that everyone, particularly minorities, actually do recognize this language as racist dog whistling? At least give the impression you're trying to hide your intentions.

 

[RustyNails]

I liked FFXII a lot too. I liked the more strategic battle system.

Completely forgettable storyline though.

 

[User 463088]

God, Trump's Ohio strategy is even worse than I thought. He's not doing anything in Cuyahoga County. While that will go overwhelmingly for Hillary, it still provides the GOP candidate with the third highest number of votes state wide. He's opened 15 offices this week, but there is absolutely nothing near Cleveland or the suburbs. And there's no evidence he has the volunteers to staff any of these offices.

 

[Slacker]

Completely forgettable storyline though.

But what about yeah you're right I can't remember a single character or thing that happened.

 

[jiggle]

Cant disagree. But the last good mainline FF was FFX. And thats 15 years ago. Good lord.

Ffxi was good...great even...before they turned it to shit...

I liked FFXII a lot too. I liked the more strategic battle system.

It was good until sandsea
Completely fell apart after

 

[whyamihere]

Halperin is Halperin, but WADR has good guests. And Kornacki sucks.

Senate race in Missouri also close.

Did they give a pollster? Or when numbers would be released? Or were they internal?

 

[Bowdz]

I honestly believe that if Clinton wins by 7-8% points on election day, she will take pretty much every Senate seat sans Iowa with her. That is just SUCH a massive pull at the top of the ticket and it is too much for most senators in swing states. It's like trying to escape a black hole.

Think about all of the Dem seats we picked up in 2008 going against a generally reasonable opponent and only with a 7.2% margin of victory.

 

[Fox318]

They sure drew Teddy a nice body there...

Oh geez, I need help.

man was a boxer, wrestler, sportsman, equestrian, outdoorsman, hunter, and all around crazy in the best ways.

He studied science and everything he could get his hands on.

Hell he even studied taxidermy. This was his work at 18.

Most popular President probably in the history of the nation.

 

[whyamihere]

I honestly believe that if Clinton wins by 7-8% points on election day, she will take pretty much every Senate seat sans Iowa with her. That is just SUCH a massive pull at the top of the ticket and it is too much for most senators in swing states. It's like trying to escape a black hole.

Think about all of the Dem seats we picked up in 2008 going against a generally reasonable opponent and only with a 7.2% margin of victory.

Yeah, I'm inclined to agree. Like if she wins NC by 1 or 2, maybe Burr can escape. Same with Portman. But if she wins these states by huge numbers? Yeesh.

 

[Cybit]

Great polls there!

Now, I just want to come back to this question and riff on it a bit, because since I'm an old guy, this approach always infuriates me and I'm guessing some of you youngsters don't get it.



Yes, it would be a foolish strategy. Because old people aren't really all that different from young people. They are not less vested in the future because they are old, they are not voting short term because they'll die sooner, they are voting - just like everybody else is voting - for what they think is best for the future. Bombard them with "think of the children" adverts and all they will do is double down on what they already think.

If they think that an America free of immigration, free of abortion, Christian-dominated and isolated from world trade is what they want, then that is also what they will want for their grandchildren.

(It's the politicians, not the voters, who are thinking short term.)

If you're going to do something targeted at older voters you need to focus on history rather than the future, because the one thing older people have in common is they have long memories.

So instead, take aim at past missteps. So, for example, point out the long-term impact of the Southern Strategy where the Republicans fought against change and lost out big time further down the road because social change happens anyhow and they alienated huge chunks of the electorate. The Reps are making the same mistake now, the party that embraced the social change is winning big time. If you don't want the Republican party to die off altogether don't vote for Trump.

Something like that at least.

(Sorry for the rant, but I get utterly fed up with old people being blamed for conservatism, Brexit etc etc when usually nobody has actually tried to engage them properly; and totally irate with the line that "they'll all die off soon anyway". Yes I know I will, and I really don't need reminding of it.)

QFT. Also, w/r/t Trump, that would actually increase his numbers.

Gallup did a pretty indepth study on Trump supporters

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2822059

The 2016 US presidential nominee Donald Trump has broken with the policies of previous Republican Party presidents on trade, immigration, and war, in favor of a more nationalist and populist platform. Using detailed Gallup survey data for a large number of American adults, I analyze the individual and geographic factors that predict a higher probability of viewing Trump favorably and contrast the results with those found for other candidates. The results show mixed evidence that economic distress has motivated Trump support. His supporters are less educated and more likely to work in blue collar occupations, but they earn relative high household incomes, and living in areas more exposed to trade or immigration does not increase Trump support. There is stronger evidence that racial isolation and less strictly economic measures of social status, namely health and intergenerational mobility, are robustly predictive of more favorable views toward Trump, and these factors predict support for him but not other Republican presidential candidates.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-widespread-theory-for-donald-trumps-success/

According to this new analysis, those who view Trump favorably have not been disproportionately affected by foreign trade or immigration, compared with people with unfavorable views of the Republican presidential nominee. The results suggest that his supporters, on average, do not have lower incomes than other Americans, nor are they more likely to be unemployed.

Yet while Trump's supporters might be comparatively well off themselves, they come from places where their neighbors endure other forms of hardship. In their communities, white residents are dying younger, and it is harder for young people who grow up poor to get ahead.

 

[nature boy]

Did they give a pollster? Or when numbers would be released? Or were they internal?

No, just a Missouri republican (unidentified).

But the most recent poll has Trump +2:

https://www.stlmag.com/news/in-missouri-voter-polls-president-governor/

A Remington Research Group poll of the presidential and statewide races in Missouri commissioned by Missouri Scout shows close battles throughout the ballot—with the exception of incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt, a Republican, leading Secretary of State Jason Kander, a Democrat, by seven percentage points in the U.S. Senate race.

While GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump trails Democrat Hillary Clinton in several national polls, he leads her 44-42 percent in Missouri. Libertarian Gary Johnson received 5 percent in the survey and Green Party candidate Jill Stein was at 2 percent. Seven percent of those contacted remained undecided.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Blunt leads Kander 47-40 percent with 7 percent of respondents remaining undecided. Libertarian candidate Jonathan Dine and Fred Ryman of the Constitution Party received 4 and 2 percent, respectively.

(I'm pretty sure this poll was posted here).

An older SurveyUSA poll post-RNC pre-DNC had Trump +10.

 

[Holmes]

God, Trump's Ohio strategy is even worse than I thought. He's not doing anything in Cuyahoga County. While that will go overwhelmingly for Hillary, it still provides the GOP candidate with the third highest number of votes state wide. He's opened 15 offices this week, but there is absolutely nothing near Cleveland or the suburbs. And there's no evidence he has the volunteers to staff any of these offices.

Most of those offices are just local GOP county offices. It's like someone told him to open some field offices and his team did the least.

 

[User 463088]

Are we really serious right now?

Nate has decided to include Zogby in their model. It's brought all of Hillary's numbers down. They're using polls from March to benchmark polls from August by fucking ZOGBY.

 

[User 85168]

Are we really serious right now?

Nate has decided to include Zogby in their model. It's brought all of Hillary's numbers down. They're using polls from March to benchmark polls from August by fucking ZOGBY.

weighted at like .02. it's whatever

 

[User 463088]

weighted at like .02. it's whatever

Actually, weighted anywhere from 0.77 to 2.42 depending on your particular model. It's still ridiculous. If the model hasn't included them, even though they've been available since March, adding them now is stupid. Furthermore, there's no reason that one poll from a C- pollster (by their own definition) should shift their model 3% points, especially when that poll had Hillary winning anyway.

Bet you a dollar Nate tweets out that Trump's made movement for the first time in weeks.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The polling is like one team being up 21-0 at the end of the first quarter.

But what the polling misses is that the team down 21-0 is an 0-9 team with Ryan Leaf at QB and terrible offensive and defense lines.

 

[Fox318]

Speaking of taxidermy apparently FDR collected Birds.

Has anyone asked Hillary or Trump on their taxidermy collection?

 

[User 463088]

If we're going with the football metaphor, I'd argue that we're nearing halftime. Maybe getting close to the 2 minute warning.

 

[nature boy]

*RUNS*

 

[User 85168]

Actually, weighted anywhere from 0.77 to 2.42 depending on your particular model. It's still ridiculous. If the model hasn't included them, even though they've been available since March, adding them now is stupid.

Bet you a dollar Nate tweets out that Trump's made movement for the first time in weeks.

First, let's not talk about now-cast. Nothing's above .77 if you look at polls-only. These aren't the only ancient polls they've added recently either. Criticising their model is fine, but I think doing it because it's brought Hillary's numbers down or assigning motives behind them aggregating polls for their model is kinda not great.

 

[Rebel Leader]

If we're going with the football metaphor, I'd argue that we're nearing halftime. Maybe getting close to the 2 minute warning.

and what? The debate will be the entertaining half time or commercials?

 

[Geg]

Connecticut a toss-up lmao

 

[Basileus777]

*RUNS*

Not enough secret states are red.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

If they're gonna add Zogby why didn't they add People's Pundit Daily?

 

[marrec]

Speaking of taxidermy apparently FDR collected Birds.

Has anyone asked Hillary or Trump on their taxidermy collection?

The only stuffed thing Hillary collects are ballots!

-Trump, probably

 

[User 85168]

• KEY
• RACE
• ALERT

 

[Fragamemnon]

If we're going with the football metaphor, I'd argue that we're nearing halftime. Maybe getting close to the 2 minute warning.

Eh feels more like a 24-3 game at the start of the 3rd quarter, and the team that is down just went three-and-out and their QB is clearly playing with a concussion.

 

[Armoured Priest]

Speaking of taxidermy apparently FDR collected Birds.

Has anyone asked Hillary or Trump on their taxidermy collection?

Trump wears his on his head.

Spoiler

sorry, I know I shouldn't go for such easy shots...but it was right there

 

[Emarv]

Rebecca Berg from Real Clear Politics is adorable.

 

[Oblivion]

Eh feels more like a 24-3 game at the start of the 3rd quarter, and the team that is down just went three-and-out and their QB is clearly playing with a concussion.

This is more along the lines of what I was thinking. Way past the first quarter.

 

[User 463088]

First, let's not talk about now-cast. Nothing's above .77 if you look at polls-only. These aren't the only ancient polls they've added recently either. Criticising their model is fine, but I think doing it because it's brought Hillary's numbers down or assigning motives behind them aggregating polls for their model is kinda not great.

Oh, no, I've been critical of their model for a while, irrespective of whose numbers it messes with. I'm not talking about their now cast. Their polls plus is supposed to be incredibly stable. Prior to the last update, Hillary was back up to 79.5%. They added national polls from Zogby, and bumped her down to 76.7%. And, because of that, it knocked down her percentages in places like Texas and even states she leads like Florida. Your stable model should not react so strongly to a poll from a company that is rated a C-, that doesn't release crosstabs/demo breakdowns outside "NASCAR" and "Walmart" voters.

They also randomly added a poll from January 12th today in Alabama. For a while, NC was Trump's because of a poll from March (this was as late as the conventions).

I mean, the difference is negligible, so whatever. But still.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

My updated election map prediction:

Vienna pulls in very strongly for Clinton, but Trump's support is so broad in the countryside that this is going to be a nail biter.

 

[Beer Monkey]

God, Trump's Ohio strategy is even worse than I thought. He's not doing anything in Cuyahoga County. While that will go overwhelmingly for Hillary, it still provides the GOP candidate with the third highest number of votes state wide. He's opened 15 offices this week, but there is absolutely nothing near Cleveland or the suburbs. And there's no evidence he has the volunteers to staff any of these offices.

Remember, Hamilton County (Cincinnati) broke for Obama in 2008 and 2012, (and by a greater percentage than the state as whole, which may surprise some). But...it still brought the second (2012) and third (2008) largest number of Republican votes in the state by county.

And the operation is still non-existent here within the county proper, with no office opened as of four days ago according to the Enquirer. The new southwest Ohio offices for Trump are in Clermont and Butler counties, distant red suburbs and farm country. You can't make this shit up.

Romney had 40 field offices in Ohio and got almost half of his votes in 70 or so rural counties (out of 88 counties total in the state). Will Trump open 20 offices in Ohio? I doubt it.

 

[Fox318]

also found this

Somebody should have told Hillary that they make pants for women.

 

[Teggy]

Are we really serious right now?

Nate has decided to include Zogby in their model. It's brought all of Hillary's numbers down. They're using polls from March to benchmark polls from August by fucking ZOGBY.

How is the adjusted leader of the Zogby poll Trump+1?!

 

[Sibylus]

Somebody should have told Hillary that they make pants for women.

With no pockets.

 

[whyamihere]

@Politics1com
Evan McMullin (I) missed the deadline to qualify for CA ballot & Jill Stein (G) bounced from GA ballot for insufficient signatures.

No Jill Stein in GA. As of now, she's also failed to qualify for NV, IN, NC, OK, TN, and SD.

 

[jevity]

Fuck this is brutal. Sane person steamrolls Trumpette pushing Hillarys health "issues".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=my3qQ9d0cT8

 

[lyrick]

Wow John McLaughlin died.

RIP.

But my PBS addiction, how will I get my Pat Buchanan intake?

 

[Iolo]

How is the adjusted leader of the Zogby poll Trump+1?!

Wait what happened to Kristopher?

The name 'Spoiled Milk' was somehow less toxic

 

[Fox318]

Aside from golf I'm not sure Trump even goes outdoors.

Even less so for Hillary.

Does she enjoy outdoors at all? At this point she has spent half her life with secret service protection so I doubt she trained for a marathon or went for a hike.

 

[User 463088]

Finally seeing some anti-Hillary ads. They're still dwarfed by Hillary and pro-Hillary ads.

This one is cutting back and forth between Bill (I did not have sexual relations with that woman interview) and Hillary saying she didn't send classified information on her email server. lol The fact that they're immediately going there is pathetic.

There's also one hitting the Clinton foundation, but it just randomly shows a bunch of bank names while Hillary says they left the White House dead broke.

 

[nature boy]

No Jill Stein in GA. As of now, she's also failed to qualify for NV, IN, NC, OK, TN, and SD.

BUT BUT CNN TOWNHALL

Lester Holt as a potential presidential moderator?

 

[Teggy]

Finally seeing some anti-Hillary ads. They're still dwarfed by Hillary and pro-Hillary ads.

This one is cutting back and forth between Bill (I did not have sexual relations with that woman interview) and Hillary saying she didn't send classified information on her email server. lol The fact that they're immediately going there is pathetic.

That ones been around for a while. Pre-convention at least.

 

[DrForester]

NBC poll says Trump up 10 with Military families. How the heck is that possible? Guy insults them, and practically promises to send them to war.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

*RUNS*

"Share it on Facebook as much as Possible"