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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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W

whyamihere

Banned
DrForester said:
NBC poll says Trump up 10 with Military families. How the heck is that possible? Guy insults them, and practically promises to send them to war.

if_the_2016_election_were_being_held_today-_chartbuilder_ba9bde3e277e01afc173d17ea29ad091.nbcnews-ux-600-480.png
Click to expand...

This is actually really bad for Trump, since military families are extremely Republican.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Teggy said:
That ones been around for a while. Pre-convention at least.
Click to expand...

I haven't seen it on the ABC or NBC affiliates in the Cleveland market until today. I may have missed it. I really only watch from 4-7 for the news. (and not always depending on what I'm doing.)

DrForester said:
NBC poll says Trump up 10 with Military families. How the heck is that possible? Guy insults them, and practically promises to send them to war.

if_the_2016_election_were_being_held_today-_chartbuilder_ba9bde3e277e01afc173d17ea29ad091.nbcnews-ux-600-480.png
Click to expand...

Maybe I'm not remembering correctly, but i think that's pretty good for a Democrat among military families?
 
P

Piecake

Member
Three out of five Trump voters in the Lone Star State would back secession if the Democrat wins, a new poll finds.
Click to expand...

When politicians accuse their opponents of trying to divide the country, they usually don’t mean it literally. But in Texas, Donald Trump supporters dread a Hillary Clinton presidency so much that three out of five of them would rather the state secede than live through it.

In conducting a rare general-election poll of the Lone Star State, the left-leaning firm Public Policy Polling asked voters a (mostly) hypothetical question: Would you support or oppose Texas seceding from the United States?

Fortunately for Unionists, a clear majority of 59 percent of Texans said they’d rather stick with the Stars and Stripes, while just 26 percent said they wouldn’t. But that number dropped when the pollsters followed up by asking whether voters would support secession if Clinton won the election. Forty percent said they would, including 61 percent of Trump supporters. (While PPP is run by Democrats, it has a solid grade in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster accuracy ratings.)
Click to expand...

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/clinton-wins-texas-secedes/496166/

That's scary.

This is the consequence of just so much paranoid conspiracy theorist hate-mongering by the right-wing media.
 
T

Teggy

Member
I had to check that guy's site out. SMH

Florida: TRUMP vs Hillary vs Johnson vs Stein CBS/YouGov 8/10-8/12, 1194 LV

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mupqt8rpd1/ForRelease_FL_20160814.pdf
Hillary 45% | TRUMP 40% | Johnson 5% | Stein 2%
My Conversion: TRUMP 44.6% | Hillary 41.6% | Johnson 5.3% | Stein 2.5%
My Analysis(details)
1. well this time CBS/YouGov Poll, it looks like accurate sampling(demographics)
1) Party ID: DEM > REP: DEM +0.8% <- pretty realistic
2) Race %: White 67.7% | Hispanic 15.% | Black 12% <- considering turnouts, it makes sense.
2. But! There was a secret. This poll underweighted White Evangelical too much.

1) CNN Florida Exit Poll 2012: White Evangelicals 24%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/

2) CBS/YouGov 8/10-8/12. 164 LV / 1194 LV = 13.73%

What is this?!!!! :p.
3. Convert the Poll as realistic Demographics ratio (White Evangelicals 24% | Non-White Evangelicals 76% )
1) TRUMP: White-Evans(24%)x75% + Non-White-Evans(76%)x35% = 44.6%
2) Hillary: White-Evans(24%)x15% + Non-White-Evans(76%)x50% = 41.6%
3) Johnson: White-Evans(24%)x3% + Non-White-Evans(76%)x6% = 5.28%
4) Stein: White-Evans(24%)x1% + Non-White-Evans(76%)x3% = 2.52%

4. TRUMP got not bad supports of Hispanics in Florida- 39% (Hillary 53%. So
Spreads: Hillary +14%. it is much better than Obama 60% - Romney 39% in 2012.
Click to expand...
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
DrForester said:
NBC poll says Trump up 10 with Military families. How the heck is that possible? Guy insults them, and practically promises to send them to war.

if_the_2016_election_were_being_held_today-_chartbuilder_ba9bde3e277e01afc173d17ea29ad091.nbcnews-ux-600-480.png
Click to expand...

Military families tend to be very conservative and are often from the south or midwest. The fact that Trump is only up 10% is bad news for him.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Ah, it's clearly election season in Ohio.

A pro-Hillary ad.
An anti-Strickland ad.
A pro-Strickland ad.
An anti-Portman ad.
An ad for Ca$h Explosion
An anti-Hillary ad.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
whyamihere said:
This is actually really bad for Trump, since military families are extremely Republican.
Click to expand...

adam387 said:
Maybe I'm not remembering correctly, but i think that's pretty good for a Democrat among military families?
Click to expand...

theultimo said:
Military families are almost entirely GOP

thats actually good
Click to expand...

Correct. There was a poll not too long ago that had Trump obliterating her by like 30-40 points.This was, of course, before the Khantroversy.
 
M

mo60

Member
jevity said:
Fuck this is brutal. Sane person steamrolls Trumpette pushing Hillarys health "issues".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=my3qQ9d0cT8
Click to expand...

LMAO at that trumpette who said during that video clip that sean hannity is concerned about Hilary's health and wants her to release her medical records when the only reason sean hannity and other people like him like Cernovich are spreading this conspiracy theory is because they are trying to find something to help their buddy trump and hurt hilary in this election and they are desparate enough to spread conspiracy theories like this one to do it.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
adam387 said:
Ah, it's clearly election season in Ohio.

A pro-Hillary ad.
An anti-Strickland ad.
A pro-Strickland ad.
An anti-Portman ad.
An ad for Ca$h Explosion
An anti-Hillary ad.
Click to expand...

I so do not miss "real television".

I do have Playstation Vue this fall for MSNBC but I pause/skip the commercials breaks, can't stand them.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Well.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/08/16/clinton-runs-5-8-points-ahead-of-trump-in-red-states/

There is a lot of media drooling over polls showing Donald Trump cratering in state after state. I find this gloating to be unseemly. Here at PEC, you can do all your gloating in one go, saving time for other reactions, like schadenfreude.

Plotted below are median Clinton-minus-Trump margins in all states for which August polling is available, plotted against Obama-over-Romney margins at the same point in the 2012 campaign. This horizontal axis quantity is better to plot than the final Obama-Romney election margins, which include undecided voters’ final commitments – not a fair comparison.
Click to expand...

Poll-compare-aug2016-2012_1000px.jpg


Recall that the popular vote margin in 2012 was Obama 51.1%, Romney 47.2%. If Clinton’s strong performance were to persist until the election, 12 weeks from now, the popular margin would end up at approximately Clinton 54%, Trump 44%. If we assume a disaffected 6% go to other candidates, that leaves Clinton 51%, Trump 41%, 8% Johnson/Stein/McMullin.
Click to expand...
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Attacking Ted Strickland for the 89c in the Rainy Day Fund is stupid....but I'll be damned if the ads that do it aren't insanely well done and crack me up.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
My September - November hot scoops:

Persona 5 will be amazing, FFXIV patch 3.4 will result in yet another dead game, Fan Fest will disappoint with them announcing SAM... as a DPS. Final Fantasy XV will be pure shit and SE will go bankrupt.

And HIllary will be crowned Queen.

You're welcome, goddamnit.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Wilsongt said:
My September - November hot scoops:

Persona 5 will be amazing, FFXIV patch 3.4 will result in yet another dead game, Fan Fest will disappoint with them announcing SAM... as a DPS. Final Fantasy XV will be pure shit and SE will go bankrupt.

And HIllary will be crowned Queen.

You're welcome, goddamnit.
Click to expand...

tumblr_inline_nlpqr6fmEI1ryrchj.gif


I ain't never payed no Persona neither.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Chi said:
First, let's not talk about now-cast. Nothing's above .77 if you look at polls-only. These aren't the only ancient polls they've added recently either. Criticising their model is fine, but I think doing it because it's brought Hillary's numbers down or assigning motives behind them aggregating polls for their model is kinda not great.
Click to expand...

adam387 said:
Oh, no, I've been critical of their model for a while, irrespective of whose numbers it messes with. I'm not talking about their now cast. Their polls plus is supposed to be incredibly stable. Prior to the last update, Hillary was back up to 79.5%. They added national polls from Zogby, and bumped her down to 76.7%. And, because of that, it knocked down her percentages in places like Texas and even states she leads like Florida. Your stable model should not react so strongly to a poll from a company that is rated a C-, that doesn't release crosstabs/demo breakdowns outside "NASCAR" and "Walmart" voters.

They also randomly added a poll from January 12th today in Alabama. For a while, NC was Trump's because of a poll from March (this was as late as the conventions).

I mean, the difference is negligible, so whatever. But still.
Click to expand...

Plus or minus 5% is pretty damn stable when it comes to the probabilities involved.

Model has always seemed good, and the difference is that we're seeing what it looks like when it doesn't have as many data points as it normally does, and that we're so far out from the election. I mean, the debates haven't even happened yet.
 
J

jevity

Member
What are your predictions for Trump and Hannity tonight ?

Also, it looks like there are two different Trump and Hannity townhalls tonight ?

TUESDAY, AUGUST 16, 2016 -

&#8203;WEST BEND, WI
Donald J. Trump
&#8203;Ziegler Building at the Washington County Fair Park & Conference Center

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule

Donald Trump will join Sean Hannity TONIGHT for the full hour!
The exclusive town hall conversation with Trump will take place at the Pabst Theater in Milwaukee, airing on Fox News Channel at 10:00pm ET.

http://insider.foxnews.com/2016/08/12/tune-trump-joins-sean-hannity-full-hour-tuesday
 
J

jevity

Member
Donald J. Trump
13 mins ·
This is my pledge to the American people: as your President I will be your greatest champion. I will fight to ensure that every American is treated equally, protected equally, and honored equally.
We will reject bigotry and hatred and oppression in all its forms, and seek a new future built on our common culture and values as one American people.
-Donald J. Trump

Trump now up 80% with minorities

Haha first comment

Tyler Conley I may be a young 21 year old..but i've never been more passionate about an election before..i hope you win mr. Trump..my entire family is voting for you..change the name of the game on capital hill
Like · Reply · 1,170 · 15 mins

A typo or a neoconian slip ?
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Slayven said:
Why are trump surrogates so terrible?

https://youtu.be/sOidbearkts

And they suppose to be on the same side
Click to expand...

I would assume some of them he plucked off the street. Donald Trump isn't consistent, lacks communication, and doesn't have detailed policies mostly. What can a surrogate do when they don't have nearly nothing to work with? All they really have are talking points and that's it.


jevity said:
Donald J. Trump
13 mins ·
This is my pledge to the American people: as your President I will be your greatest champion. I will fight to ensure that every American is treated equally, protected equally, and honored equally.
We will reject bigotry and hatred and oppression in all its forms, and seek a new future built on our common culture and values as one American people.
-Donald J. Trump

Trump now up 80% with minorities

Haha first comment

Tyler Conley I may be a young 21 year old..but i've never been more passionate about an election before..i hope you win mr. Trump..my entire family is voting for you..change the name of the game on capital hill
Like · Reply · 1,170 · 15 mins

A typo or a neoconian slip ?
Click to expand...

Why does Donald Trump proclaim so much crap, but never actually does anything with what he says? He just says shit and then nothing. No campaigning on that message, no building policies on that message, not building relationships with groups that can help on that message, nothing.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
jevity said:
Donald J. Trump
13 mins ·
This is my pledge to the American people: as your President I will be your greatest champion. I will fight to ensure that every American is treated equally, protected equally, and honored equally.
We will reject bigotry and hatred and oppression in all its forms, and seek a new future built on our common culture and values as one American people.
-Donald J. Trump

Trump now up 80% with minorities
Click to expand...

tumblr_nazgyaYSSo1rosb88o1_500.gif
 
J

jevity

Member
uh oh

CNN just confirmed Trump recieves first white house security briefing tomorrow,
while at the same time the CNN headline is this : Trump " I DON'T WANT TO PIVOT"

edit : CNN is calling it a " pivot on paper"

and now for some Corey on CNN encouraging Trump not to pivot
 
I

Iolo

Member
Trump to Air First TV Ads of General Election Campaign

As he continues to slip in the polls, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is poised to begin airing his first television ads of the general election starting Friday in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, according to a campaign adviser.

The upcoming ad buy was flagged with about 50 members of Congress in a conference call Tuesday afternoon with Mr. Trump’s campaign chairman Paul Manafort and two other staffers. Members were told the campaign would begin buying advertising more widely after Sept. 1.
Click to expand...
 
K

KMS

Member
Abinash117 said:
Why does Donald Trump proclaim so much crap, but never actually does anything with what he says? He just says shit and then nothing. No campaigning on that message, no building policies on that message, not building relationships with groups that can help on that message, nothing.
Click to expand...

Trump is a kindergartener of policy and how the government functions. He throws out fear and platitudes then switches topic before anything of substance can be said because he is completely incapable of taking the third step of laying out plans. He really is a bullshit artist! It may work for the primaries but he's been stripped bear and showing to be the charlatan he is the moment people expected him to become a serious candidate.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
It's not like it's mid-August or anything.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/08/16/trump-to-air-first-tv-ads-of-general-election-campaign/

As he continues to slip in the polls, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is poised to begin airing his first television ads of the general election starting Friday in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, according to a campaign adviser.

The upcoming ad buy was flagged with about 50 members of Congress in a conference call Tuesday afternoon with Mr. Trump’s campaign chairman Paul Manafort and two other staffers. Members were told the campaign would begin buying advertising more widely after Sept. 1.
Click to expand...

No word on the size of the buy.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Guys.

What if Trump "staying on message"...

Actually wouldn't help him at all because his message sucks and only appeals to 30-35% of the American electorate?
 
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