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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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A

Armaros

Member
adam387 said:
He's going on and on about coal miners in Virginia. As of 2014, there were less than 3500 coal miners in the entire state.
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This is the person that went to the one of richest county in the country to talk about lost manufacturing jobs.
There are probably more people driving audis in the county then manufacturing jobs there.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
This is not the shit his crowd wants. Like, I don't get this at all.

Hillary is going to make America poor. Gonna lose your job. Gonna lose your wages. Gonna lose your medical. Obamacare is a disaster.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
I love that the only middle class group that Republicans openly embrace is a tiny group of workers whose job involves releasing deadly poison into the air.

Unless your job involves you destroying the planet, the GOP has nothing for middle class workers, lol.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
We're going to make it easier and cheaper and also less money.

I thought cheaper=less money.

Sopan Deb ‏@SopanDeb 43s44 seconds ago
I used to say that Trump rallies were like going to an Allman Brothers concert, w/ long winding jams. Now - more like Celine Dion.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Reading over this again, Trump is just saying nonsense words and then reporters are taking this to mean "THE PIVOT IS HERE"

The thirst and desperation from the media and the GOP to not have a Klan member as the GOP nominee is so obvious.
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The media desperately wants this to be a close race for ratings. I mean they are grading on a curve, but if they can portray Trump in a better light to make the race appear closer they'll do it.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Rebel Leader said:
And victims of crimes
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Oh ya, them too.

"This is a movement. And movements don't joke." WTF lol

And now try and pit African Americans and Latinos against each other and "illegals."

"I've asked the African American community to honor me with their vote"

Does that just seem weird? It sounds weird....
 
B

Boke1879

Member
adam387 said:
Oh ya, them too.

"This is a movement. And movements don't joke." WTF lol

And now try and pit African Americans and Latinos against each other and "illegals."

"I've asked the African American community to honor me with their vote"

Does that just seem weird? It sounds weird....
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With Trump. I think he's means "I'd be honored to have their vote."

But with him and the way he talks. It's pretty much. "You SHOULD honor me with your vote."

It's also damn near passive. "Well I've asked them to honor me. If they do it is an entirely different story."
 
B

Boke1879

Member
adam387 said:
It's Saturday. And...um...the Olympics suck right now. And....don't judge me. :(

Whaaaaaa

"She would rather provide a job to a Syrian overseas than to a young African American"

Whaaaaaaa. lol
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Ok this man is just talking now. It's Trump speech, but in a teleprompter format. This is NOT how you pander to the AA voter. So are Syrian refugees the boogeyman now and NOT "illegal immigrants for the GOP?
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
I'm not gonna fully say overt black American racism is less tolerated than racism towards muslims/Latinos, but I guess it seems more obviously racist to white people? Maybe just because there's been so much more pushback on black racism over the years but it seems more obvious to white people at least when it's overt.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Slayven said:
cheaper than opening officers in battle ground states
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LOL fair point.


David Rothschild weighing in on the USC poll:

USC/LA Times: interesting and exciting, but not too believable

Huffington Post’s Pollster does not include the USC/LA Times poll in their general election polling trend, but RealClearPolitics does. And, today, August 20, 2016 the USC/LA Times poll has Republican Donald Trump up 44.2 to 43.6. I do not believe the level of the poll (i.e., the head-to-head value), but I believe there is a lot of information in the movement of the poll. The sharp movement towards Trump does mean a movement towards Trump among the respondents in their panel, but their actual value of Trump up by 0.8 percentage points could be way off.

The poll uses a panel of 3,200 people who answer their demographics at the start of July and then answer their voting intention once per week through Election Day. They provide each respondent in a trailing seven day period with a weight that assures the sample resembles the voting population from 2012. Then, they further weigh each respondent by their stated likelihood to vote. Then, they report the fraction voting for each candidate.

I love this type of experimental polling, but there are few serious concerns on their methods:

1) Party ID: They are weighing people by their 2012 vote as proxy for latent party identification. This is a bad proxy, because a person’s four year old vote is actually more susceptible to change than their current stated party identification. You read that right. People have a serious problem remembering if and for whom they voted for in past elections. Generally, people overstate their vote for the winning candidate. What that means is the “Romney voters” in their panel are probably a more hardcore sub-section of Romney voters than actual Romney voters.

2) Modelling: They are raking their weights, rather than modeling the data. Depending on how representative their sample is to begin with and the randomness of the dropouts over time, once the weights get lager they become quite an issue. Modeling the data with some form of hierarchical regression provides additional power. I am particularly concerned with African-American support for Clinton dropping from 90 to 80 percentage points (and Trump’s support rising from near 0 to 13.6 percentage points). Could smaller demographics groups, like African-Americans, have too big of weights due to under-representation in the poll?

3) Probability of Voting: While some good work has been done in the past on asking probability of voting, it is not clear how well it will hold up in an election like this. It is possible that inferring likely voting (from past voting records and other implicit questions) would actually be a more stable and realistic measure of likeliness of voting. Asking the respondents probably exaggerates shifts. Further, why derive this each week anew, when they have a full panel of data on the respondents? Surely they can model the likeliness to vote more efficiently with all of that response data.

Most likely the party ID issues is making the poll a few points too favorable for Trump.

But, does that not discount that the movement may still hold valuable information about the race tightening a little. They have a relatively steady group of people and show a 2.7 percentage point drop in support for Clinton from her peak and 2.6 percentage point increase for Trump from his bottom. Someone is moving towards Trump and someone is moving away from Clinton, but it is not clear from where and by how much.
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B

Boke1879

Member
RastaMentality said:
I'm not gonna fully say overt black American racism is less tolerated than racism towards muslims/Latinos, but I guess it seems more obviously racist to white people? Maybe just because there's been so much more pushback on black racism over the years but it seems more obvious to white people at least when it's overt.
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Trump and the GOP officially will say Democrats don't help the black community and that they are bamboozled into voting for them.

And while I think their is a majority of Americans who believe this. You will probably never here Trump say Blacks are lazy and don't give their fair share.

If he EVER said that he's done. Like I really believe that would be the thing that sinks him.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
http://www.amnestyusa.org/research/...-torture-disease-and-death-in-syria-s-prisons

Syrian prison report. Trigger Warning: Rape, torture, and more rape and more torture and just torture and it's horrible.

The report highlights new statistics from the Human Rights Data Analysis Group (HRDAG), an organization that uses scientific approaches to analyse human rights violations, which indicate that 17,723 people died in custody across Syria between March 2011 when the crisis began and December 2015. This is equivalent to an average of more than 300 deaths each month. In the decade leading up to 2011, Amnesty International recorded an average of around 45 deaths in custody in Syria each year – equivalent to between three to four people a month.

However, the figure is a conservative estimate and both HRDAG and Amnesty International believe that, with tens of thousands of people forcibly disappeared in detention facilities across Syria, the real figure is likely to be even higher.



The majority of survivors told Amnesty International that the abuse would begin instantly upon their arrest and during transfers, even before they set foot in a detention centre.

Upon arrival at a detention facility detainees described a “welcome party” ritual involving severe beatings, often using silicone or metal bars or electric cables.

“They treated us like animals. They wanted people to be as inhuman as possible… I saw the blood, it was like a river… I never imagined humanity would reach such a low level… they would have had no problem killing us right there and then,” said Samer, a lawyer arrested near Hama.

Such “welcome parties” were often described as being followed by “security checks”, during which women in particular reported being subjected to rape and sexual assault by male guards.

At the intelligence branches detainees endured relentless torture and other ill-treatment during interrogation, generally in order to extract “confessions” or other information or as a punishment. Common methods included dulab (forcibly contorting the victim’s body into a rubber tyre) and falaqa (flogging on the soles of the feet). Detainees also faced electric shocks, or rape and sexual violence, had their fingernails or toenails pulled out, were scalded with hot water or burned with cigarettes.

Ali, a detainee at the Military Intelligence branch in Homs, described how he was held in the shabeh stress position, suspended by his wrists for several hours and beaten repeatedly.

The combination of poor conditions in the intelligence branches, including overcrowding, lack of food and medical care, and inadequate sanitation amount to cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment and are prohibited by international law.

Survivors described being held in cells so overcrowded they had to take turns to sleep, or sleep while squatting.

“It was like being in a room of dead people. They were trying to finish us there,” said Jalal, a former detainee.

Another detainee, “Ziad” (whose name has been changed to protect his identity), said ventilation in Military Intelligence Branch 235 in Damascus stopped working one day and seven people died of suffocation:

“They began to kick us to see who was alive and who wasn’t. They told me and the other survivor to stand up… that is when I realized that… seven people had died, that I had slept next to seven bodies… [then] I saw the rest of the bodies in the corridor, around 25 other bodies.”



Detainees often spend months or even years in the branches of the various intelligence agencies. Some eventually face outrageously unfair trials before military courts – often lasting no more than a matter of minutes – before being transferred to Saydnaya Military Prison where conditions are particularly dire.

“In [the intelligence branch] the torture and beating were to make us ‘confess’. In Saydnaya it felt like the purpose was death, some form of natural selection, to get rid of the weak as soon as they arrive,” said Omar S.

The torture and other ill-treatment in Saydnaya appears to be part of a relentless effort to degrade, punish and humiliate prisoners. Survivors said prisoners there are routinely beaten to death.

Salam, a lawyer from Aleppo who spent more than two years in Saydnaya, said: “When they took me inside the prison, I could smell the torture. It’s a particular smell of humidity, blood and sweat; it’s the torture smell.”

He described one incident when guards beat to death an imprisoned Kung Fu trainer after they found out he had been training others in his cell: “They beat the trainer and five others to death straight away, and then continued on the other 14. They all died within a week. We saw the blood coming out of the cell.”

Detainees at Saydnaya are initially held for weeks at a time in underground cells which are freezing cold in the winter months, without access to blankets. Later they are transferred to cells above ground where their suffering continues.

Deprived of food some detainees said they ate orange rinds and olive pits to avoid starving to death. They are forbidden from speaking or looking at the guards, who regularly humiliate and taunt detainees apparently just for the sake of it.

Omar S described how on one occasion a guard forced two men to strip naked and ordered one to rape the other, threatening that if he did not do it he would die.
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Hmmmmmmmmm

*Vomits everywhere*
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Boke1879 said:
Trump and the GOP officially will say Democrats don't help the black community and that they are bamboozled into voting for them.
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41rydKC0RYL.jpg
 
U

User 463088

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...80s-deportation-arab-muslim-immigrants-214177

Reagan thought about putting Muslims in camps, Jesus fucking christ
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This sentence annoys me:

The 40-page memo described a government contingency plan for rounding up thousands of legal alien residents of eight specified nationalities: Libya, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Tunisia, Algeria, Jordan and Morocco.
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Shouldn't it be blah blah blah...Libyan, Iranian, Syrian, Lebanese, Tunisian, Algerian, Jordanian and Moroccan.

I know that's so not the point....
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
In interviews 30 years later, the members of the ABC Committee insist that the document was not seriously considered—a bureaucratic fantasy with few meaningful ramifications—even as they defended the rationale that produced it.

In 1987, after the memo’s existence was briefly exposed, the ABC Committee was promptly terminated, the subgroup and the plan abandoned.
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One day recently, over lunch at a Virginia mega-mall, I placed the memo beside the plate of one former member of Group IV of the ABC Committee. How did it come to be? I asked him. He was pleasant, but indignant. The government is loaded with contingency plans like you wouldn’t believe, he told me. Best to stop worrying. “You said the department had to scrap this after it was leaked?” he asked. “If they withdrew this in 1986, they probably had something operational by 1992,” he continued. “They’d be foolish not to.”
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In interviews over the past several months with Politico Magazine, former members of the ABC Committee struck a note of indignant stoicism about the 1986 memo—a brittle shell, earned from years toiling in the most political branch of federal policy. Didn’t I know anything about immigration, the men asked me. Didn’t I know how complex a time this was?
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“Let’s be realistic,” he said. “If I’ve been told to watch out for bad Iranians or whatever—I do some work and quickly determine there’s 3,000 of these people in my county. So I’m going to go out and I’m going to follow 3,000 people? Oh, so I’ll start alphabetically?”

“Believe it or not, everything is not roses,” he said. “And ultimately, it takes force in order to enforce the laws.”

When I asked him about Mineta’s comments about the internment camps, he cocked his head and shot me a plaintive smirk. “Don’t you think that’s a bit hyperbolic?” he said. “If you really want to see genocide in the United States, go back and look to see what happened to the American Indian in California. That’s 1849.” He blinked, considering this for a moment. “Now, the Japanese were rounded up on the entire West coast. You don’t know. You’ve just been attacked—Hawaii! If the Japanese had sent troops, they would have had Hawaii.” He shakes his head, trailing off in a murmur. “We were wiped out. Very few ships got out.”
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Still, the men of ABC retain a sense of common cause. They agree, for instance, that other branches of government—and civilians—simply don’t understand the tribulations of enforcing immigration law. In most of our conversations, there was a palpable nostalgia for some of the more benign proposals that the document laid out—a registration system, for instance; a way to track outgoing alien departures, not just entries; and, especially, a deportation process unmolested by the maneuverings of finicky defense counselors.
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If only there was a Michelle Malkin to show them how right they were in trying to keep this country safe rather than surrendering to terrorists and their sympathizers.
 
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