What's the likelihood that Ryan gets primaried?
PredictIt has Ryan 94% favored.
What's the likelihood that Ryan gets primaried?
Will be proudly voting Democrat in GA this year in a year where it actually matters. Wasn't expecting this even if it turns out all for naught.
It's probably too little, too late, but looks like Trump is going to buy ads in... 17 states?
https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/640160?unlock=POGH92SV7TMTY79I
It's probably too little, too late, but looks like Trump is going to buy ads in... 17 states?
https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/640160?unlock=POGH92SV7TMTY79I
Unfortunately if no one finishes over 50 in Georgia Senate it goes into a runoff, which will probably doom Dems' chances there for a few more cycles.
This photo creeps me the fuck out each time.
Is that Ivanka or Tiffany?
EDIT: Oh, it's Ivanka. I didn't realize Tiffany was only 22. She was probably only just born around when this was taken.
Yeah, I hate that GA and LA do this.
Wait - I thought he specifically accounted for that? I thought he was taking both the turnout and the demographics and applying them both - hence his comment about the "voting figures". I'm assuming he is also accounting for not only what the percentage of voters of each demographic, but then also the percentage of voter turnout for a given demographic as well. Basically, if white voters above the age of 30 were 50% of the electorate, and they voted 75% for Obama, the number of white people over the age of 30 who did vote versus the total number of white people over the age of 30 would also be transposed, so you could go for raw votes and then work from there?
EDIT: Basically using Prodigy's example, I would normalize the GOP voters and the Dem voters so you get the same overall turnout. Meaning that it would need to still have 250 voters (so it'd be 125/125). Did he not do that?
In the wake of last months legal curb stomping of Chinas sweeping claims to nearly all of the South China Sea, observers have been anxiously watching to see how Beijing would digest the ruling. This week they got their answer: Not well at all. And apparently all Beijings troubles are Americas fault.
In the past few days, all three Chinese naval fleets have taken to the sea to practice for a sudden, cruel, and short conflict. Chinas Defense Minister, Chang Wanquan, called for a peoples war at sea to fend off any threats to Chinese sovereignty over distant reefs and rocks.
More ominously, perhaps, China has also changed its laws to arrest and jail anyone caught fishing in waters Beijing considers its own, even though many of those waters are precisely the bits that are disputed among Chinas neighbors in the South China Sea. Before, Chinese coast guard vessels would just chase away foreign fishermen, perhaps confiscating their boats. The stiffer penalties now, according to Chinese media, are meant to provide a legal justification for more aggressive Chinese patrols around the disputed shoals and islets.
And just to make sure the message was heard, Beijing also made sure to escalate the ongoing war of words with Japan whose most recent defense white paper noted concern over the South China Sea and sent more ships into disputed waters in the East China Sea. Chinas defense ministry blasted Japan for sowing discord among China and other Asian states.
And just to round out the week, Chinese state media slammed Australia for its public support of the July 12 ruling by the international arbitration panel in The Hague. Calling the land down under an offshore prison of the United Kingdom and a paper cat, the Global Times newspaper identified Australia as the ideal target of a strike in the event Canberra meddles in the South China Sea fracas. Then the paper doubled down with further threats.
Behind everything we can always glimpse the deep shadow of the Stars and Stripes, it concludes.
What's the likelihood that Ryan gets primaried?
They are trying to collect pants on fire I guess.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...-trump-wrongly-says-hillary-clinton-wants-ra/
Runoff got you Ted Cruz. Dewhurst lead the first round of votes. Lost runoff to Cruz
Just saw a new ad in Ohio on locals during the news.
It's Trump on Letterman. Letterman keeps pulling out shirts and ties, asking Trump where they're made. Trump says "He doesn't know." Then Letterman goes through each one. Trump just kinda looks at the camera and shrugs.
It's a good ad.
Runoff got you Ted Cruz. Dewhurst lead the first round of votes. Lost runoff to Cruz
Yeah, it's vicious. And it's not just a shrug, it's a smirk and a "whaddaya gonna do / badda bing!" shrug.
Haha, wtf? They actual got some linguistics dude to offer his opinion? Why not just, you know, look at Hillary's fucking tax plan?
I just saw this Jill Stein ad. WTF?!
Holy. Shit.
The Daily Caller‏ @DailyCaller
No Whites Allowed, Clinton Speaks To Press For First Time In 260 Days
...What?
It's definitely the knowing smirk that clinches the message.Yeah, it's vicious. And it's not just a shrug, it's a smirk and a "whaddaya gonna do / badda bing!" shrug.
The Iraq War, the financial meltdown, the utter failure of supply-side theory, climate denial, and our strange pursuit of theocratic legislation have all been troubling. Yet it seemed that Americas party of commerce, trade, and pragmatism might still have time to sober up. Remaining engaged in the party implied a contribution to that renaissance, an investment in hope. Donald Trump has put an end to that hope.
From his fairy-tale wall to his schoolyard bullying and his flirtation with violent racists, Donald Trump offers America a singular narrative a tale of cowards. Fearful people, convinced of our inadequacy, trembling before a world alight with imaginary threats, crave a demagogue. Neither party has ever elevated to this level a more toxic figure, one that calls forth the darkest elements of our national character.
With three decades invested in the Republican Party, there is a powerful temptation to shrug and soldier on. Despite the bold rhetoric, we all know Trump will lose. Why throw away a great personal investment over one bad nominee? Trump is not merely a poor candidate, but an indictment of our character. Preserving a party is not a morally defensible goal if that party has lost its legitimacy.
Fast-forward to our present leadership and the nature of our dilemma is clear. I watched Paul Ryan speak at Donald Trumps convention the way a young child watches his father march off to prison. Thousands of Republican figures that loathe Donald Trump, understand the danger he represents, and privately hope he loses, are publicly declaring their support for him. In Illinois our local and state GOP organizations, faced with a choice, have decided on complicity.
Our leaders compromise preserves their personal capital at our collective cost. Their refusal to dissent robs all Republicans of moral cover. Evasion and cowardice has prevailed over conscience. We are now, and shall indefinitely remain, the Party of Donald Trump.
I will not contribute my name, my work, or my character to an utterly indefensible cause. No sensible adult demands moral purity from a political party, but conscience is meaningless without constraints. A party willing to lend its collective capital to Donald Trump has entered a compromise beyond any credible threshold of legitimacy. There is no redemption in being one of the good Nazis.
I hereby resign my position as a York Township Republican committeeman. My thirty-year tenure as a Republican is over.
pretty good ad!
This is pretty scathing. This dude runs goplifer.com lol
Is this new on 538? It's a pretty good visualization
Is this new on 538? It's a pretty good visualization
This is pretty scathing. This dude runs goplifer.com lol
A party willing to lend its collective capital to Donald Trump has entered a compromise beyond any credible threshold of legitimacy. There is no redemption in being one of the good Nazis.
Um, so Trump tweets and clarifies that he was wrong about the video right? He Tweeted about it. Right? Like...that happened.
Now he's tweeting a Drudge Story that links to a Daily Mail Story that says maybe there really is a video!
That's not how you do this you orange fuckwit!
Um, so Trump tweets and clarifies that he was wrong about the video right? He Tweeted about it. Right? Like...that happened.
Now he's tweeting a Drudge Story that links to a Daily Mail Story that says maybe there really is a video!
That's not how you do this you orange fuckwit!
...That's a different kind of run off...