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[Felix Lighter]

We're going with "I know you are but what am I?"

Yeah, that's a common thing he does. He takes the criticism directed at him and tries to make the same accusations against his opponent even when it makes no sense.

 

[Brawndo Addict]

This is a ~10% change in pro- opinion within each generation over about 5 years. The change here has been much, much faster than what we've seen with interracial marriage.

I didn't dispute that generations can change their minds or that they are, I was pointing out that said internal changes are largely outweighed by the generational changes.

Edit: Looking at Gallup's plain "do you think gay marriage should be legal" poll, that's shifted by about 40 points in 10 years (-20 to +20). That's not generational change.

I think I misunderstood, then. I agree that generational change outweighs changing minds in the sense that the difference between gay marriage approval 50 years from now to 15 years ago will be basically all about younger generations being more approving. But the huge increase in approval that we've seen in the last 10 years, which is largely responsible for gay marriage now being legal, is mostly due to mind-changing.

I've said it before but I'm not a statistician so I'm not qualified mathematically to make conclusions and apologize if my posts implied otherwise. When I say outweighed I meant more of a relative comparison from Boomers to Gen X'ers as you said.

But it was clearly wrong of me to discount the importance of internal shifts as that led to a critical reversal in public consciousness that allowed several states to legalize gay marriage and allowed Kennedy to feel intellectually secure in 'voting' to nationalize it.

As I think about it more, I do think the internet could be having an interesting effect of normalizing behavior much more rapidly than would otherwise occur in person relative to say interracial marriage, again as you pointed out. Or perhaps that was driven more by media representation and the insular communities of the internet balanced out its spreading of information.

 

[Holmes]

I don't think there's a clear answer on the emails. It'll be a cloud that hovers over Hillary into her Presidency. She'll be asked about it at every debate in the fall and Trump will dance on stage while she answers it while chanting "Crooked Hillary!"

 

[East Lake]

The obvious difference you are not addressing, of course, is that we haven't observed a Trump presidency.

There's simply no way to compare what W did with power to what Trump said as a candidate.

But to try to answer the question -- Yes, they are worse traits. How they would actually impact decision making compared to a bog-standard Republican is a matter we hopefully won't get to verify.

Well yeah we haven't observed a Trump presidency but those traits certainly don't seem to me to be indisputably worse than the religious fundamentalism that GW had.

 

[kess]

How did Joe Biden earn the "Diamond Joe" nickname?

Delaware is the "Diamond" state

 

[Beer Monkey]

Wow, he really does have little boy hands.

 

[User 463088]

Trump is going on about the baby again.
And he's going to take it to training school.
And he's doubling down on it......

"Beautiful baby, if you take her outside we don't have a problem"

 

[SexyFish]

Trump is going on about the baby again.
And he's going to take it to training school.
And he's doubling down on it......

"Beautiful baby, if you take her outside we don't have a problem"

Oh my god. He thinks this will help.

 

[Gotchaye]

I didn't dispute that generations can change their minds or that they are, I was pointing out that said internal changes are largely outweighed by the generational changes.

I think I misunderstood, then. I agree that generational change outweighs changing minds in the sense that the difference between gay marriage approval 50 years from now to 15 years ago will be basically all about younger generations being more approving. But the huge increase in approval that we've seen in the last 10 years, which is largely responsible for gay marriage now being legal, is mostly due to mind-changing.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I don't think there's a clear answer on the emails. It'll be a cloud that hovers over Hillary into her Presidency. She'll be asked about it at every debate in the fall and Trump will dance on stage while she answers it while chanting "Crooked Hillary!"

Which makes me wonder, when was the last time someone asked Trump about Curiel and Trump University? I guess they can only fit in so many questions when he has so many new fuck ups.

 

[User 463088]

And the media is so crooked because they cut him off from laughing.

And he has to win to fix the media.

 

[Balphon]

It was a shitty answer that still doesn't put this to bed. Clinton is in the right on the details on a lot of this, but she needs a short, concise answer. I know she's admitted wrong doing, but just do it again and leave it at that.

Her answers on the email question may not be great, but nothing will ever put it to bed. Whitewater and cattle futures are still talking points.

 

[Emarv]

Josh Barro with some hot takes

http://www.businessinsider.com/can-hillary-clinton-win-texas-2016-8

LET'S DOOOO THIS!

 

[User 463088]

I think their new plan is to give him talking points on a paper.

And the cartels that killed 150,000 people are now all, everyone, in the United States.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I just realized why the Clinton team gave a job to DWS right after being pushed out of her chair; they were hoping she could keep her senate seat and not end up having Bernie's pick beating her. Looks like she'll lose it.

 

[Holmes]

Which makes me wonder, when was the last time someone asked Trump about Curiel and Trump University? I guess they can only fit in so many questions when he has so many new fuck ups.

Dunno. But the email thing is so easy to hit Clinton on, and they must know she's just going to give the same fucking answer every time. But talking about emails is more important than immigration reform, or health care, or the minimum wage.

 

[titiklabingapat]

California Republicans are dead.

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/county-724744-republicans-democratic.html

This is fantastic. This bodes well for progressive props as well. It looks good for the LA transit prop Measure R2 which essentially doubles the rail system in the metro area.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I just realized why the Clinton team gave a job to DWS right after being pushed out of her chair; they were hoping she could keep her senate seat and not end up having Bernie's pick beating her. Looks like she'll lose it.

You seem awfully confused.

 

[User 463088]

I just realized why the Clinton team gave a job to DWS right after being pushed out of her chair; they were hoping she could keep her senate seat and not end up having Bernie's pick beating her. Looks like she'll lose it.

House seat
The "job" is ceremonial. and means absolutely nothing. It comes with nothing and we'll never hear from her again.
And I've seen no polling to suggest she's going to lose it.

 

[whyamihere]

Harry Enten believes that GA could become a swing state, and might already be one.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-georgia-becoming-a-battleground-state/

In these maps, Georgia is part of a “New South” backup plan for Clinton if Trump’s plan to win states in the Midwest and Northeast is successful. In these examples, you’d imagine Trump appealing to white voters without a college degree in states such as Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Clinton then counters these victories by appealing to voters in the more diverse Southern states with growing populations, including Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia. All of these states are at least one-third nonwhite.

The African-American population in Georgia, in particular, has grown a ton in recent years. Black voters made up just 23 percent of Georgia voters in the 2000 election compared with 30 percent in the 2012 election. Much of this growth has occurred in the Atlanta suburbs, in Rockdale and Clayton counties. Not surprisingly, those two counties are also first and fourth, respectively, in terms of the U.S. counties that trended the most Democratic from the 2000 to 2012 election.

Of course, having a large minority population isn’t a guarantee that a state will go Democratic (see Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, etc.). The white population in most of these states leans overwhelmingly Republican, but a Democrat, in order to carry the state, has to do not terribly with white voters. In 2012, President Obama lost white voters by about 60 percentage points in Georgia. That’s better than he did in Alabama and Mississippi but not good enough to carry the state. Obama lost white voters by between 25 and 35 percentage points in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia in 2012, all states he carried that year. The AJC poll, meanwhile, has Clinton losing white voters by just 37 percentage points. That movement probably is because of voters with at least a college degree, as we are seeing nationwide. Clinton is winning college-educated voters by 11 percentage points according to the AJC poll, after Obama lost them by about 20 percentage points in Georgia in 2012. Clinton and Trump are tied among non-college-educated voters, which is about the same result as in 2012.

Combine the trend of well-educated voters and Trump’s earning of just 2 percent of support black voters in the AJC poll, and Clinton has a real shot to win Georgia.

 

[PantherLotus]

(((Jeff Tiedrich))) @jefftiedrich
Republicans should be forced to carry their candidates to term. Even when the life of the party is in danger. politico.com/story/2016/08/…

9:10am · 5 Aug 2016 · Twitter Web Client

 

[BlastProcessing]

I just realized why the Clinton team gave a job to DWS right after being pushed out of her chair; they were hoping she could keep her senate seat and not end up having Bernie's pick beating her. Looks like she'll lose it.

She is in the House not the Senate and I don't think that was the calculus. I think it was a carrot to get her to leave ASAP.

 

[User 463088]

"The United States will be the United States. The United States will be the United States again."

Trump...what does that mean?

They're going to come all over the place.

OH MY.

 

[SexyFish]

They're going to come all over the place.



Welp.

 

[User 463088]

They're going to come all over the place.



Welp.

Okay, so I'm not the only one with a dirty mind.

Trump just said Virginia like eleven times in 2 minutes.

"Pence is going to in the back ways to get (Indiana) number 1 with the vets"

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN!?

Now Trump is saying the released prisoners from Iran had to wait at the airport for the plane to land with the money. He admits he has nothing to base this on BUT WHY THE HELL NOT!?

 

[SexyFish]

Did..did he just mention the nonexistent military base again?

 

[Wilsongt]

But what about Kay Hagan?

Prospect souds like bad news.

 

[nature boy]

He's really looking a lot at his notes.

 

[Gotchaye]

Although as I think about it more, I do think the internet could be having an interesting effect of normalizing behavior much more rapidly than would otherwise occur in person (relative to say interracial marriage's history as you pointed out).

I think this might contribute, but I feel like with opinions about homosexuality in particular the bigger driver is that it snowballs due to gay people coming out of the closet. When approval ticks up, some number of additional closeted gay people come out, which means that members of younger generations are more likely than their elders to have respectful relationships with gay people, which means that they're more approving, which means that the next generation of gay people have even less reason to be closeted, etc. Like, what's always striking to me listening to members of my parents' generation talk about gay people they know is that there's absolutely no way they knew this in high school.

Racism doesn't go away as quickly across generations because everyone already knew who all the black people were (and white people avoid/ed respectful relationships with them). Desegregation helps but it's not as if we're /that/ desegregated.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

Damn..

 

[ampere]

Well yeah we haven't observed a Trump presidency but those traits certainly don't seem to me to be indisputably worse than the religious fundamentalism that GW had.

You don't think "why can't we use our nukes?" isn't worse than religious stuff? I mean I didn't like that at all about W, but Trump is far more dangerous

o

m

f

g

 

[CoolOff]

...fuck...

 

[Bowdz]

You seem to know the facts. What should she say? Short and concise? Why is that the measure of a truthful or satisfactory answer?

Nothing will completely put this to rest, but the reason the media keeps bringing this up is the notion that Clinton keeps trying to conflate Comey's statement about her truthfulness in the FBI interview and her public statements which Comey himself said were not entirely true.

So, in my unprofessional armchair opinion, I think if she just said her usual "I made a mistake, I regret it, and I wouldn't do it again" followed by "I made statements to the public that I thought were accurate, but per the FBI's thorough investigation, they found some of them to be false. I recognize that fact, I apologize for any statements that turned out to be false, and I am fully dedicated to learning from my mistakes and taking Director Comey's remarks to heart so nothing like this happens again."

 

[Ecotic]

It was a shitty answer that still doesn't put this to bed. Clinton is in the right on the details on a lot of this, but she needs a short, concise answer. I know she's admitted wrong doing, but just do it again and leave it at that.

Yeah, she needs a 3 sentence rote answer.

1. The FBI did not indict me.
2. Despite this, I must hold myself to a higher standard.
3. I've learned from this experience and will not make the same mistake again.

Say this every time and only this. She messes up by getting into details and trying to justify what she did. Above all just don't say anything new.

 

[Cybit]

the article is completely built on a false premise, so i can see why its confusing. Its built on a premise that demographics changes are what drives elections, but ignores party turnout for ... some ungodly reason?

If you have more GOP voters shockingly, all demographic vote share changes.

Its a trash article, and shame on Enten for writing such drivel

You don't seem to be getting his point at all.

his argument is that there were not more GOP voters suddenly, only fewer Democratic voters

basic math time: there are 100 GOP voters and 150 Dem voters in some random place, then in the midterm it's 100/100 instead, the percentage of GOP voters went up! the actual number did not

Wait - I thought he specifically accounted for that? I thought he was taking both the turnout and the demographics and applying them both - hence his comment about the "voting figures". I'm assuming he is also accounting for not only what the percentage of voters of each demographic, but then also the percentage of voter turnout for a given demographic as well. Basically, if white voters above the age of 30 were 50% of the electorate, and they voted 75% for Obama, the number of white people over the age of 30 who did vote versus the total number of white people over the age of 30 would also be transposed, so you could go for raw votes and then work from there?

EDIT: Basically using Prodigy's example, I would normalize the GOP voters and the Dem voters so you get the same overall turnout. Meaning that it would need to still have 250 voters (so it'd be 125/125). Did he not do that?

 

[Brawndo Addict]

I think this might contribute, but I feel like with opinions about homosexuality in particular the bigger driver is that it snowballs due to gay people coming out of the closet. When approval ticks up, some number of additional closeted gay people come out, which means that members of younger generations are more likely than their elders to have respectful relationships with gay people, which means that they're more approving, which means that the next generation of gay people have even less reason to be closeted, etc. Like, what's always striking to me listening to members of my parents' generation talk about gay people they know is that there's absolutely no way they knew this in high school.

Ah, I hadn't really thought about the non-linear impacts of that kind of self-reinforcing as that really upends the analogy I was making even further. In the interracial marriage context, increasing approval doesn't make white people suddenly more aware of black people because they already exist in their public consciousness; it's not like each uptick makes schools or neighborhoods less segregated and thus more interracial interactions occur which leads to more understanding on a faster timescale.

However, as you pointed out, that actually does happen in the gay marriage context, or perhaps more appropriately, acceptance of gays in general. The numbers of gay Americans who exist isn't magically increasing, it's just that people are suddenly learning that their friend Joe or Annie are gay which leads to personal reflection and changes on a much faster timescale.

That said, that might be a very unique circumstance relative to other kinds of societal change where there is no self-reinforcing mechanism of that kind of magnitude.

 

[whyamihere]

It's probably too little, too late, but looks like Trump is going to buy ads in... 17 states?

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/640160?unlock=POGH92SV7TMTY79I

The Trump cam­paign’s me­dia buy­er, Stra­tegic Me­dia Ser­vices, re­ques­ted TV ad rates in 17 states on Thursday, ac­cord­ing to two sources with know­ledge of the move. The states on the list are: Ari­zona, Col­or­ado, Flor­ida, Geor­gia, In­di­ana, Iowa, Maine, Min­nesota, Michigan, Mis­souri, New Hamp­shire, Nevada, North Car­o­lina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vir­gin­ia and Wis­con­sin.

Re­quest­ing rates in these states doesn’t ne­ces­sar­ily mean the cam­paign will air ads there ahead of the Novem­ber elec­tion. But it marks the first time the cam­paign has shopped for air­time since the primar­ies.

If he ul­ti­mately de­cides to hit the air­waves, Trump is start­ing at a massive dis­ad­vant­age. Clin­ton and al­lied out­side groups, which have been on air throughout the sum­mer, have re­served nearly $100 mil­lion in ad time across a hand­ful of swing states and na­tion­ally, NBC News re­por­ted this week. The Clin­ton cam­paign cur­rently has TV ads booked through early Septem­ber, while the main su­per PAC sup­port­ing her can­did­acy, Pri­or­it­ies USA, has air­time re­served through Elec­tion Day.

Mean­while, Trump has yet to launch a single TV since wrap­ping up the Re­pub­lic­an nom­in­a­tion in May, and sup­port­ive out­side groups have re­served less than $1 mil­lion in ad time for the fall. Trump who has re­lied heav­ily on press cov­er­age and so­cial me­dia to get his mes­sage out, of­ten ques­tions the value of run­ning TV ads. His cam­paign only spent $19 mil­lion on TV ads dur­ing the GOP primary, far less than many of his well-heeled rivals.

 

[SexyFish]

Trump saying he can solve the drugs coming over our borders with one phone call to Mexico's leaders. People eat this shit up.

 

[Rebel Leader]

He's talking about japan

and now NATO has to pay

--

If you not going to vote for me vote for pence. It's the same thing

 

[Bowdz]

Yeah, she needs a 3 sentence rote answer.

1. The FBI did not indict me.
2. Despite this, I must hold myself to a higher standard.
3. I've learned from this experience and will not make the same mistake again.

Say this every time and only this. She messes up by getting into details and trying to justify what she did. Above all just don't say anything new.

This.

 

[PantherLotus]

Ever stop and think how hilarious and sad it is that, for the right amount of money, Candidate X can make the PERFECT commercial to convince Constituent Y to vote one way or another?

It strikes me as madness.

 

[Bowdz]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/290579-poll-gop-senator-up-6-points-in-georgia

Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) leads his Democratic opponent by just 6 points, according to a new poll released Friday.

Isakson has 48 percent support and Jim Barksdale has 42 percent, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll said.

The result will renew fears among Republicans that GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump's low poll numbers could hurt down-ballot Republicans.
A separate poll released Friday showed Democrat Hillary Clinton 4 points ahead of Trump in Georgia.

The GOP candidate has won the state in seven of the last eight presidential elections.

Isakson, who is seeking his third term in the Senate, won his previous two general elections by 18 and 19 percentage points.

Barksdale is an Atlanta investment manager and a political newcomer self-funding much of his upstart bid.

“I’m proud of my record of service to Georgia, and being ahead in any poll is humbling,” Isakson said in a statement Friday.

“Our campaign is taking nothing for granted and will be working for every vote until polls close on Election Day,” added Isakson, who has endorsed Trump.

Barksdale’s campaign said Friday’s results show Georgia’s voters are hungry for change in their lawmakers.

“Multiple polls this week show that Georgia’s U.S. Senate race is at single digits, and it’s because of the appeal of Jim Barksdale’s outsider candidacy,” said campaign manager David Hoffman.

Holy shiiiiiiiiiit...

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

I think she is just so used to trying to control messages and such that she gets too deep into trying to damage control it. The emails isn't going to cause anything now. Not with the last 2 weeks (Good DNC followed by a shity week for trump)

All she has to do is act humble/continue talking policy and she is waltzing into the oval office with probably 400+ electoral votes.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/290579-poll-gop-senator-up-6-points-in-georgia



Holy shiiiiiiiiiit...

Bwaaaaaaaaaaa. Dear sweet lord pecan praline baby Jesus let this happen.

 

[Dominican Power]

What's the likelihood that Ryan gets primaried?

 

[whyamihere]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/290579-poll-gop-senator-up-6-points-in-georgia



Holy shiiiiiiiiiit...

And Jim Barksdale is literally just some rich dude.

 

[BravesCountry]

Will be proudly voting Democrat in GA this year in a year where it actually matters. Wasn't expecting this even if it turns out all for naught.

 

[nature boy]

What's the likelihood that Ryan gets primaried?

Zero.

 

[Bowdz]

The Dems and Clinton need to start aggressively campaigning in AZ, GA, MO, IA, and NC. All of them have had polls within spitting distance of unseating long standing GOP Senators.

 

[BrokenFiction]

And Jim Barksdale is literally just some rich dude.

With a fine newsboy cap to boot.