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[Y2Kev]

The muslin ban is a losing issue. People like muslin bans.

Democrats should be hammering on like why your paycheck isn't bigger or something

 

[Fox318]

https://youtu.be/HxqnLG6UgQQ

Amazing take from the Cuban American here.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The muslin ban is a losing issue. People like muslin bans.

Democrats should be hammering on like why your paycheck isn't bigger or something

Opposing the Holocaust in Germany in 1930s would have been a losing issue, but I think German opposition parties (if they existed) should still have opposed it!

 

[kadotsu]

The muslin ban is a losing issue. People like muslin bans.

Democrats should be hammering on like why your paycheck isn't bigger or something

So is lack of gun control, yet here we are.

 

[Doc Holliday]

https://youtu.be/HxqnLG6UgQQ

Amazing take from the Cuban American here.

I would love to see his face if he got sent back to Cuba.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Manchin is like the most comical name possible for a guy who, if he had more charisma, would be running for president with basically the National Socialism platform.

You would be fired if you were a TV writer who gave Manchin his name after describing the policies he supported.

It mostly just reminds me of this.

(Source is Preacher, for those who don't know)

 

[sphagnum]

The muslin ban is a losing issue. People like muslin bans.

Democrats should be hammering on like why your paycheck isn't bigger or something

Do you only post drunk these days kev

 

[Dominican Power]

CNN reporting gorsuch is most likely the pick

And yes Greta on msnbc is awful

Just like Megyn Kelly is going to be a disaster on NBC.

 

[Jooney]

Ginsburg should have retired a couple of years ago

That was the position of a few folks here (including myself) prior to the 2014 midterms and I remember there were dealwithit.gif responses in return.

The court will be lost for a generation if she can't hang on for the next 4 years (let alone 8).

 

[Kusagari]

The Muslim ban isn't a losing issue so much as it's sort of irrelevant(as harsh as that might sound).

99.9% of people approving of Trump aren't going to be swayed away from him because of it. The hill he'll die on is if the Obamacare repeal is a disaster and/or the economy tanks because of his trade policies.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

"Okay, so here's a guy who loves coal miners, shooting guns, and workers. He's an authoritarian who doesn't care about civil rights and is basically the strawman version of a strongman for workers.

"His name... Joe MAN... CHIN."

"This pitch is ruined by that name, get some fucking creativity, loser."

 

[Good Job Bob]

The muslin ban is a losing issue. People like muslin bans.

Democrats should be hammering on like why your paycheck isn't bigger or something

It is likely illegal.

 

[Y2Kev]

Do you only post drunk these days kev

Opposing the Holocaust in Germany in 1930s would have been a losing issue, but I think German opposition parties (if they existed) should still have opposed it!

It is likely illegal.

Oh I really hope trump is swaying people away from him. Really. I think people's lives depend on it.

But I think people actually want this policy.

 

[Jooney]

I'm betting that support for the EO / muslim ban comes from the fact that Trump promised he would take action and then followed through - folks don't care for the specifics.

 

[Crocodile]

The muslin ban is a losing issue. People like muslin bans.

Democrats should be hammering on like why your paycheck isn't bigger or something

The Muslim ban isn't a losing issue so much as it's sort of irrelevant(as harsh as that might sound).

99.9% of people approving of Trump aren't going to be swayed away from him because of it. The hill he'll die on is if the Obamacare repeal is a disaster and/or the economy tanks because of his trade policies.

However, the Muslim ban is one of many issues that will galvanize the left and get those who sat out the election because "both sides" to actually get off their ass to vote.

 

[Dominican Power]

Wait until they repeal the ACA and don't have a replacement and ppl are assed out.

 

[Y2Kev]

However, the Muslim ban is one of many issues that will galvanize the left and get those who sat out the election because "both sides" to actually get off their ass to vote.

I am not sure. It's like one of those things where I'd like to see preference intensity. Merkuns care a lot. Protests are pretty encouraging but then you see polls where it's like 50/50. It's hard to reconcile.

 

[Hellwarden]

Spicer should, ya know, maybe get an aid to help him out.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

You don't need to change anyone's mind to win a midterm, your side just has to be angry enough.

Satisfied voters don't vote in midterms, fucking mad people vote.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

its not smug liberals, its panic liberals. the dis-empowered liberals that have always felt they can't win and conservatives always will.

Its the anthisis of Obama and Bernie-style optimism

But there's an implicit smugness to saying "everyone wants you to believe x when in reality you're being sheeple who don't see that zy0182382 is actually happening." It's the same type of thing conspiracy theorists (and cultists) do.

I'm not saying Trump isn't dangerous, or that Bannon isn't a major threat. But they're fucking up what should have been a wide open shot. Cut taxes, "fix" Obamacare while working on a replacement plan for 2018, "temporarily" ban refugees (no religious litmus test, leave green cards/visas alone), etc. And then start getting tough in the spring with an insane budget while benefiting from decent approval ratings. But instead they decided to set themselves on fire.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Muslim ban becomes a lot less popular when families are broken up and people are giving personal stories

Same with DACA. Even Republicans know that - Gingrich has been telling Trump it's a losing issue, but Bannon/Sessions/etc are pushing for it

 

[Poodlestrike]

You don't need to change anyone's mind to win a midterm, your side just has to be angry enough.

Satisfied voters don't vote in midterms, fucking mad people vote.

This. Midterms are 110% about turning out your base. Muslim ban issue riles our guys up, and while theirs are on board with it, they're not throwing counter-protests like they do about abortion and guns. So I'd call it a winner.

In fact, I would argue that judging by the level of polarization and the 2016 results, that's all elections are about now: base turnout. The country is so harshly polarized that voter apathy on each side is the only determining factor, which means that we're probably looking at seesawing government for the foreseeable future.

Assuming we still have elections, I mean. Not guaranteed anymore.

But there's an implicit smugness to saying "everyone wants you to believe x when in reality you're being sheeple who don't see that zy0182382 is actually happening." It's the same type of thing conspiracy theorists (and cultists) do.

I'm not saying Trump isn't dangerous, or that Bannon isn't a major threat. But they're fucking up what should have been a wide open shot. Cut taxes, "fix" Obamacare while working on a replacement plan for 2018, "temporarily" ban refugees (no religious litmus test, leave green cards/visas alone), etc. And then start getting tough in the spring with an insane budget while benefiting from decent approval ratings. But instead they decided to set themselves on fire.

Remember, a lot of this is Bannon the Leninist. It's not about conservative victory in elections, it's about dismantling democracy.

 

[RastaMentality]

Trump will hoodwink all of us when he announces that Kennedy is retiring tonight and both of them are getting appointed.

 

[kirblar]

Forseeable fiuture?

We've BEEN in this seesaw mess since the Clinton era.

 

[shinra-bansho]

“One can justify provocative moves if they serve an important strategic goal,” Mr. Mearsheimer told me. “It is not clear what purpose these moves are designed to serve.”

And yet pointlessness is coming to define American foreign policy. Mr. Trump lacks an end game.

Security experts in the United States are baffled by Mr. Trump’s executive order abruptly barring entry by citizens from seven mostly Muslim countries, noting that it will ultimately put the security of the United States at risk by sending a uniform message of hostility to 1.6 billion followers of Islam.

In Mexico, government officials are scratching their heads about what Mr. Trump hopes to achieve by threatening to walk away from the trade agreement that has cemented bilateral relations for the last quarter-century. And who knows what Mr. Trump thinks the United States would stand to gain by leaving the World Trade Organization?

Cordell Hull, President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s long-serving secretary of state and a key architect of postwar foreign strategy, once wrote, “if we could increase commercial exchanges among nations over lowered trade and tariff barriers and remove unnatural obstructions to trade, we would go a long way toward eliminating war itself.”

Mr. Trump has little patience for this thinking. The president understands international relations as zero-sum competitions. To win at trade, one must export, he believes. Importers lose. Mutually beneficial, win-win solutions are a figment of some diplomat’s imagination.
...
“The trade deficit is the number that determines for him who wins and loses,” Professor Irwin said. “But trade deficits are not determined by trade agreements. Trade agreements just determine the rules for trade.”

Then there is the fact that Mr. Trump’s macroeconomic strategy, which looks set to marry increased government spending with high interest rates, is in some tension with his objectives on trade: By strengthening the value of the dollar, it will make the trade deficit bigger.

Finally, the problems that the president has resolved to tackle have largely petered out on their own. More Mexican immigrants are leaving the United States than coming in. And Chinese exports to the United States are actually declining.

Trump and Trade: Extreme Tactics in Search of a Point https://nyti.ms/2jRyljt

Sums up how dumb and nonsensical Trump’s approach to international relations is.

 

[Y2Kev]

This. Midterms are 110% about turning out your base. Muslim ban issue riles our guys up, and while theirs are on board with it, they're not throwing counter-protests like they do about abortion and guns. So I'd call it a winner.

In fact, I would argue that judging by the level of polarization and the 2016 results, that's all elections are about now: base turnout. The country is so harshly polarized that voter apathy on each side is the only determining factor, which means that we're probably looking at seesawing government for the foreseeable future.

Assuming we still have elections, I mean. Not guaranteed anymore.



Remember, a lot of this is Bannon the Leninist. It's not about conservative victory in elections, it's about dismantling democracy.

You think murkins don't care that much? Interesting. I don't know.

 

[BronzeWolf]

So I was discussing with my dad.

If push comes to the shove and Trump tries to cancel Mexican green card holders from the US, would Mexico retaliate with US expats in Mexico?

Because there seems to be quite a whole lot of them. (1 Million)

Expats in Mexico usually are old retirees whose pension would amount for peanuts in the US, but live like kings here. $30k/year USD is poverty line in USA, while it's certainly luxurious here.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

So I was discussing with my dad.

If push comes to the shove and Trump tries to cancel Mexican green card holders from the US, would Mexico retaliate with US expats in Mexico?

Because there seems to be quite a whole lot of them. (1 Million)

Expats in Mexico usually are old retirees whose pension would amount for peanuts in the US, but live like kings here. $30k/year USD is poverty line in USA, while it's certainly luxurious here.

Mexico's main possible response is to stop the drug war.

Mexico sacrifices thousands of lives a year to stop heroin from entering the U.S. and Mexico could kill a lot of Trump voters while saving their own people if they stopped the drug war.

Who knows what steps they would take after that.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Forseeable fiuture?

We've BEEN in this seesaw mess since the Clinton era.

Even moreso, I guess. I'm betting on a lot of 1-term presidents moving forward. If we manage to un-gerrymander things in 2020 without rigging it on our favor, I'd stretch that to a lot of House and Senate seats as well.

I mean, assuming the Democratic base becomes complacent with every win, which feels likely.

You think murkins don't care that much? Interesting. I don't know.

Not relative to how much our side does, apparently. Makes a good wedge issue. Something to hammer on that gets us mobilized without drumming up an equal and opposite reaction from the right. Kind of the opposite of guns. If it pans out, anyway.

 

[sphagnum]

Mexico's main possible response is to stop the drug war.

Mexico sacrifices thousands of lives a year to stop heroin from entering the U.S. and Mexico could kill a lot of Trump voters while saving their own people if they stopped the drug war.

Who knows what steps they would take after that.

Gives Trump pretense for an invasion maybe?

 

[BronzeWolf]

Mexico's main possible response is to stop the drug war.

Mexico sacrifices thousands of lives a year to stop heroin from entering the U.S. and Mexico could kill a lot of Trump voters while saving their own people if they stopped the drug war.

Who knows what steps they would take after that.

Before 2017, I didn't even think Mexico had some kind of leverage on the US but it seems it does after all.

- All the border states depend on commerce with Mexico
- The Mexican community is strong in the US
- Big food community depends on them
- Capital and productive chains sunk into manufacturing in Mexico are too huge for US industry to ignore
- Drug war without Mexico's cooperation is flawed from the start.
- Immigration containment from South America without Mexico's cooperation is flawed from the start
- Expats living in Mexico

Any of these issues would make a Mexico-punitive action a political non-starter.

Gives Trump pretense for an invasion maybe?

The 20% tariff was a dud, let alone a war

 

[Doc Holliday]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/trump-cnn-press-234455

White House ices out CNN
Trump administration refuses to put officials on air on the network the president called 'fake news.'

The White House has refused to send its spokespeople or surrogates onto CNN shows, effectively icing out the network from on-air administration voices.

”We're sending surrogates to places where we think it makes sense to promote our agenda," said a White House official, acknowledging that CNN is not such a place, but adding that the ban is not permanent.

[T]Just like Obama did with Fox News! [/T]

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Before 2017, I didn't even think Mexico had some kind of leverage on the US but it seems it does after all.

- All the border states depend on commerce with Mexico
- The Mexican community is strong in the US
- Big food community depends on them
- Capital and productive chains sunk into manufacturing in Mexico are too huge for US industry to ignore
- Drug war without Mexico's cooperation is flawed from the start.
- Immigration containment from South America without Mexico's cooperation is flawed from the start
- Expats living in Mexico

Any of these issues would make a Mexico-punitive action a political non-starter

Auto parts is the biggest killer. They stop the flow or make it more expensive it's going to directly effect the factory workers who assemble them as companies reduce hours and shifts.

 

[smokeymicpot]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/trump-cnn-press-234455





[T]Just like Obama did with Fox News! [/T]

I guess Cooper spooked Kellyanne.

 

[BronzeWolf]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/trump-cnn-press-234455





[T]Just like Obama did with Fox News! [/T]

No more surrogates without bursting ulcers available confirmed

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Let's say Trump called for a ground invasion of Mexico in which the only objective was "take the oil!"

How many Republican Senators would vote to authorize this war?

 

[A Human Becoming]

I think it was the NPR political podcast that mentioned the possibility of Senate Democrats letting Trump's nominee in but doing what Republicans did to Merrick Garland for any others. Maybe it is better to follow their example instead of blocking it up front. Let the people decide in the November 2020 elections!

 

[Sibylus]

Canadian parliament holding an emergency debate on Muslim ban in about 30 minutes.

You get out of the country, bro?

Also, I imagine gloating about being right about the nazis is never truly satisfying. Like you were right but you wish you hadn't been.

Shite if this isn't me right now. There is zero satisfaction in having seen this coming.

 

[Jooney]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/trump-cnn-press-234455





[T]Just like Obama did with Fox News! [/T]

Jeff Zucker's cozying up to Trump in the campaign paying off!

 

[nature boy]

Manchin won't filibuster SC pick

Fuckin' worthless Manchin.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

CNN just had its commentators basically repeat what was written in Vanity Fair's Can Jared and Ivanka Outrun Donald Trump’s Scandals?, where they claim that from sundown on friday to sundown on saturday, things go awary because Kushner/Ivanka follow the Sabbath and that allows Trump to get out of control without his counsel, and that this pattern is likely to continue.

That article is basically saying Kushner is getting fed up.

It's because it's hard to work with their skillset without villains they can point to. Even the supposed masterminds like Bannon and whatnot are really only good at being edgy online when they're not in charge.

Now that they are The Man, they have to actually defend themselves, not punch everybody else. And none of them (clearly) have that skillset. At all.

She didn't give in to trash populist economics. That's a good thing.

If someone's looking for a scapegoat, she was never going to beat the answer Trump was giving them.

Yeah, I'm certainly better if we lie about this stuff versus something like switching to an All Lives Matter platform (the latter might legit lose my vote), but it's still a lie. Protectionism is a disaster and will do nothing for most Americans.

I can't help but feel the "here's what's actually going on/this is calculated chaos/etc" stuff is like the worst aspects of smug liberal shit transferred to a minority power level. There is no conspiracy here. This guy has been an unstable narcissistic fascist his entire life. He's been obsessed with punishing or embarrassing his enemies ever since he won. One of the very first things he did was make Mitt Romney grovel for the Sec of State job only to throw him in the bushes. Now he's rewarding his fervent supporters and punishing groups that hate him. But not just minorities/immigrants...he's also shitting on GOP leadership.

And...it's turning out to be a disaster, he's losing support, etc. Being bad at your job is not a strategy, unless you're the Philadelphia 76ers.

The GOP also has to be prepped for impeachment at any time. If something else comes out that's highly illegal (and when the guy is running around with an Internet-connected unsecured phone and other assholes who've never sniffed clearance are getting top military seats, there will be leaks), they can't ignore the worst case scenarios. What happens if actual foreign correspondence were to leak, with say, Russia? That's treason territory. You can't just ignore that (and in fact, to do so pre-2018 would just lead to Dems sweeping both houses and then impeaches him anyway).

The Muslim ban isn't a losing issue so much as it's sort of irrelevant(as harsh as that might sound).

99.9% of people approving of Trump aren't going to be swayed away from him because of it. The hill he'll die on is if the Obamacare repeal is a disaster and/or the economy tanks because of his trade policies.

The people who want these things in the abstract still want them to be done with no roadblocks or screwups though. Look at Iraq; most people these days would say the Iraq War was bad, but don't mistake that for "Most Americans sympathize with the Iraqi people and the costs of war." Right wing people who regret Iraq only do so because it was a botched engagement that wasn't quickly finished.

If Dubya had killed Saddam a week into Iraq and then pulled all troops out (and stolen oil), then a shit ton of the current "Iraq was bad" people would be saying the opposite.

This Muslim ban has been insanely poorly done. It's a complete joke; I've got hardcore alt-righters talking about being against some of the execution of this thing. Take every Hillary voter (who's mad about the racism) and then add the Trump voters who are now mad that Trump got carte blanche and is fucking it up.

 

[TestOfTide]

The world and media landscape is drastically different from even 9 years ago when Bush left office.

And said media landscape failed to make people hate Obama in spite all their efforts.

Trump has already disappointed a number of his voters; those who realize he will actually repeal the ACA and they'll be worse off, and those with family caught in the immigration confusion. Even a few who were probably turned off with him focusing on inauguration crowds rather than anything else and congress trying to nerf the ethics committee.

I imagine the bulk are still quite happily in the "hey, look at all this action!" mode.

Once those "wait and see" voters (or their friends or family) lose their healthcare entirely, see their insurance premiums rise or terms change unfavourably, lose access to Planned Parenthood services, don't get their coal job back, see terrorist attacks happen anyway and the country remaining "unsafe", start paying more for Mexican produce, and/or are exposed to ongoing food/water poisoning, I certainly expect he'll lose more favorability. And that only accounts for what Trump has planned, much less whatever hare brained schemes he comes up with along the way (that Bannon feeds him).

Of course, recent history has proved an unfavorable candidate can still be considered "better than the other guy at least", so we'll have to wait and see what kind of candidate Democrats put out there in the face of poor favorables for Trump.

Think about it this way: Unless the nominee in 2020 is Elizabeth Warren, the GOP is going to have a VERY hard time turning the 2020 nominee into three next "Hillary".

 

[Sibylus]

Starting a half hour early: http://www.cpac.ca/en/

 

[Aaron Strife]

Even moreso, I guess. I'm betting on a lot of 1-term presidents moving forward. If we manage to un-gerrymander things in 2020 without rigging it on our favor, I'd stretch that to a lot of House and Senate seats as well.

I mean, assuming the Democratic base becomes complacent with every win, which feels likely.



Not relative to how much our side does, apparently. Makes a good wedge issue. Something to hammer on that gets us mobilized without drumming up an equal and opposite reaction from the right. Kind of the opposite of guns. If it pans out, anyway.

Democrats seem to get complacent if the sun is out.

Even the Bernie bros. who seemed to think Bernie would win California and New York easily because hurr hurr blue states, and that as soon as he got elected he'd wave his little magic wand and we'd wake up to free college and healthcare for everyone on Jan 21. Like fundamentally too many people are just ignorant.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Manchin won't filibuster SC pick

Fuckin' worthless Manchin.

Why do you guys ever expect Manchin to do anything progressive that isn't based on union interests or working class wages and benefits?

He's an authoritarian, racist, anti-environmentalist who cares about the working class and unions. He's pretty clearly defined by this point...

 

[Dominican Power]

https://twitter.com/Phonycian/status/826282688717930496

lolmerica

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Why do you guys ever expect Manchin to do anything progressive that isn't based on union interests or working class wages and benefits?

He's an authoritarian, racist, anti-environmentalist who cares about the working class and unions. He's pretty clearly defined by this point...

Yeah, this is like saying that Mississippi was a bastion of left-wing principles since our state legislature was held by Democrats until 2011.

Party doesn't mean everything.

 

[Hindl]

Why do you guys ever expect Manchin to do anything progressive that isn't based on union interests or working class wages and benefits?

He's an authoritarian, racist, anti-environmentalist who cares about the working class and unions. He's pretty clearly defined by this point...

Seriously. I don't get why people are surprised by Manchin. The D next to his name doesn't make him the same as Gillary

 

[Poodlestrike]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/trump-cnn-press-234455





[T]Just like Obama did with Fox News! [/T]

And nothing of value was lost.

Seriously, they're not getting any useful information out of these people--whenever they've had them on, all they do is burn a few minutes of airtime lying about nonsense. CNN will get the relevant news when everybody else gets it, and now they don't have to spend time debating with stooges. Win/win.

Democrats seem to get complacent if the sun is out.

Even the Bernie bros. who seemed to think Bernie would win California and New York easily because hurr hurr blue states, and that as soon as he got elected he'd wave his little magic wand and we'd wake up to free college and healthcare for everyone on Jan 21. Like fundamentally too many people are just ignorant.

It's definitely something we're going to have to work on. People looking at unseating representatives are looking the wrong way, imo. Need to get people consistently fired up about voting before trying to run specific candidates is going to do any long-term good.

 

[Diablos]

Aw fuck, Kennedy, don't step down. If the WH is really picking Gorsuch to signal that... fffuuuuuck