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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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I just finished calling my senators in Arkansas for the first time. The lines were busy for both and I had to call multiple times just to leave a message. For Tom Cotton, it said his inbox was full and couldn't accept anymore messages.

Is this typical? Or is this a good sign that there are many unhappy constituents making their voices heard?
It's a sign that your senators don't give a flying fuck about being called and will never listen to that voicemail.
 
Do senators or congress people actually talk to people? I'm being serious. Asides for town hall type things.

I know that most letters that they send you, after you sent them a paper message, are just cut and paste generic responses.
 
Someone explain why Hardiman is better without pointing to the 538 graph and not knowing what the 538 graph is showing and has tire fire Pryor closer to the centre.
 

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
Do senators or congress people actually talk to people? I'm being serious. Asides for town hall type things.

I know that most letters that they send you, after you sent them a paper message, are just cut and paste generic responses.

My guess is only if they are in unsafe districts/states


You think the liberals wouldn't be texualist when need be?

Well we aren't getting a liberal to replace Scalia so I guess that's a moot point.



I'm really hoping the Marshalls thing isn't true. Cause we would have to rely on congress to do anything and that's not happening.
 

Balphon

Member
Thomas is the guy who argues passionately for domestic abusers to have guns.

Alito is the type of guy who would allow a conservative president to do literally anything he wanted.

Thomas is his own special kind of crazy that is interesting from a point of legal scholarship but which is so out there he'll never be able to build a practical consensus around anything transformative. Nobody is going to sign on to dumping 100+ years of precedent on substantive due process to reevaluate the Slaughterhouse Cases.

Alito is less jurisprudentially principled and is, at worst, an ideologue. Regardless, however, he is able to functionally move the Court to the right by pulling moderates (i.e. Kennedy) towards him. He's not the model you want to emulate.
 

Doc Holliday

SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Hey remember when brown people kept bringing up to Bernie or bust people that not voting for Hilary would be really bad for us.

yea, this is what we meant :/
 

daedalius

Member
With news of Trump's Celebrity Supreme Court Justice Pick, we appear to be hurtling every closer to our Idiocracy future, with less health care, and more corruption.
 

Teggy

Member
Disgusting

Jeff Zeleny‏ @jeffzeleny

White House is setting up Supreme Court announcement as a prime-time contest: prime-time contest: @JusticeGorsuch and @JusticeHardiman identical Twitter pages.
 

kmag

Member
Someone explain why Hardiman is better without pointing to the 538 graph and not knowing what the 538 graph is showing and has tire fire Pryor closer to the centre.

Hardiman hasn't got a stated position on most of the social issues essentially (mostly by virtue of not really presiding over many hot button social issue cases), which is a risk but probably better than Pryor or Gorsuch whos positions are clear on social issues.

Hardiman is almost certainly more authoritarian than either Pryor or Gorsuch. I don't think there's a case where he hasn't come down on the side of the cops or prisons.
 
How has his approval rating improved since the inauguration? I'm going to have an anxiety attack.

It hasn't really.

This

C3hKK5QWEAAmoTO.jpg:large
 
lol @ immigration being the reason why wages are low and stagnant. It has nothing to do with the 1% hoarding all the wealth, nope.
This is actually I think a big failure of Democratic messagimg (or, more cynically, a resounding success of moderate Democrats, heh). Hillary didn't really rail against huge monied interests. There was some talk about "an economy that works for everyone" but no messaging about who was to blame, or that the powers that be want you to believe it was immigration so that they weren't held accountable. Immigration was defended as it should be, but there wasn't a satisfying answer to "why is there such absurd income disparity" and instead we said "America is already great".
 
Ugh.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-immigration-poll-exclusive-idUSKBN15F2MG

Americans are sharply divided over President Donald Trump's order to temporarily block U.S. entry for all refugees and citizens of seven Muslim countries, with slightly more approving the measure than disapproving, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Tuesday.

The Jan. 30-31 poll found that 49 percent of American adults said they either "strongly" or "somewhat" agreed with Trump's order, while 41 percent "strongly" or "somewhat" disagreed and another 10 percent said they don't know.

But the responses were split almost entirely along party lines. Some 53 percent of Democrats said they "strongly disagree" with Trump's action while 51 percent of Republicans said they "strongly agree."
 

I've said it before and I'll say it again:

25-30% of America is made up of Trump's Deplorables. People who are not worth our time and honestly need to fuck off.

Another 10-15% of America are MOSTLY conservative people who KNOW that Trump is bad, but are very resistant to actually admitting to bad things about GOP leadership.

Why do I make that distinction? Because that 10-15% are USUALLY unreachable, but if these people are negatively affected in a way where they KNOW it was caused by Trump, they may be wiling to turn against him.

And I think this Gallup poll is good news for us, because it shows that 11 days in Trump is already pissing off a majority of the population to the point where aren't willing to approve him less than two weeks after he takes office.


I think the problem is that if you look at the details, only 31% of people polled actually think this order makes us "more safe".

It's hard to know how many people actually LIKE the executive order without details on how many "somewhat agreed" and how many "strongly agreed".
 

UberTag

Member
I just finished calling my senators in Arkansas for the first time. The lines were busy for both and I had to call multiple times just to leave a message. For Tom Cotton, it said his inbox was full and couldn't accept anymore messages.

Is this typical? Or is this a good sign that there are many unhappy constituents making their voices heard?
Might also be an indication that they're doing the White House equivalent of taking their phone off the hook so they don't have to talk to any of their constituents.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Most Americans, however, don't think the country should show a preference for Christian refugees, as Trump has suggested. Some 56 percent, including 72 percent of Democrats and 45 percent of Republicans, disagreed that the country should "welcome Christian refugees, but not Muslim ones."
That's an interesting statistic. I suspect the more detailed questions and specific policy issues would yield higher levels of disapproval, compared to simply asking whether they approve the order.

Also, "The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online in English in all 50 states."
 
I mean, he won 46% of the electorate, it'd be sort of weird if his job approval was in the 30s after a week and a half in his presidency.

Also, "The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online in English in all 50 states."

It's a scientific online poll.
 
Hardiman hasn't got a stated position on most of the social issues essentially (mostly by virtue of not really presiding over many hot button social issue cases), which is a risk but probably better than Pryor or Gorsuch whos positions are clear on social issues.

Hardiman is almost certainly more authoritarian than either Pryor or Gorsuch. I don't think there's a case where he hasn't come down on the side of the cops or prisons.
I mean if it's about taking the risk on the devil you don't know I guess that's ones prerogative. But I don't know where the sentiment that he's the moderate pick is coming from. Other than the 538 graph - with people not reading that JCS scores are based on nominating President (W for all three contenders) and home state Senator ideology.

There was a different metric used in an article on Merrick Garland a while back based on clerk ideology/political donations. There's a boredom project for someone. Based on who they've sent up to the SC though, which is not the same as the above I know, Pryor has fed clerks to Thomas and Alito, Gorsuch to a broader mix of Kennedy, Kagan, Alito. The latter having clerked for Kennedy.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
I mean, he won 46% of the electorate, it'd be sort of weird if his job approval was in the 30s after a week and a half in his presidency.



It's a scientific online poll.
I'm more interested in the English-only element.
 
People are really really racist and would probably be against letting Jews into the country if the original German Nazis were resurrected, took over Israel and promised to slaughter every Jewish person in Israel unless the Jewish people were allowed into America.

But it's mobilized like 25% of people and made them angrier than they've ever been and those people voting is all you need to dominate midterms.

But he'll need to fuck up and let a city drown (he will) or let the economy crash (he will) or show general incompetence (he will) to lose in 2020 (he will).
 
I've said it before and I'll say it again:

25-30% of America is made up of Trump's Deplorables. People who are not worth our time and honestly need to fuck off.

Another 10-15% of America are MOSTLY conservative people who KNOW that Trump is bad, but are very resistant to actually admitting to bad things about GOP leadership.

Why do I make that distinction? Because that 10-15% are USUALLY unreachable, but if these people are negatively affected in a way where they KNOW it was caused by Trump, they may be wiling to turn against him.

And I think this Gallup poll is good news for us, because it shows that 11 days in Trump is already pissing off a majority of the population to the point where aren't willing to approve him less than two weeks after he takes office.



I think the problem is that if you look at the details, only 31% of people polled actually think this order makes us "more safe".

It's hard to know how many people actually LIKE the executive order without details on how many "somewhat agreed" and how many "strongly agreed".

To me it's either 1) Conservative media is far better at persuading ignorant people(in the sense of what's going on) or 2) people DGAF about optics.

Democrats need to forget about "who we are" strategy and just focus on issues that affect people.
Shove Trumpcare down everyone's throats.
 
Guys, Americans were strongly in favor of letting Jews be slaughtered in camps back during WW2 instead of letting them into the nation. Every public poll from ever shows Americans hate immigrants.

This isn't a messaging thing or a conservative media brainwashing thing.
 
People are really really racist and would probably be against letting Jews into the country if the original German Nazis were resurrected, took over Israel and promised to slaughter every Jewish person in Israel unless the Jewish people were allowed into America.

But it's mobilized like 25% of people and made them angrier than they've ever been and those people voting is all you need to dominate midterms.

But he'll need to fuck up and let a city drown (he will) or let the economy crash (he will) or show general incompetence (he will) to lose in 2020 (he will).

Just so everyone understands, that poll says that only 31% of the respondents think that this EO makes us "more safe".

If it was actually 49% approving of this order, then it would show in a similar number saying that this makes us "more safe".

Meanwhile a good 41% already don't like the EO, because they also found that 41% feel that this law "sets a bad example".

To me it's either 1) Conservative media is far better at persuading ignorant people(in the sense of what's going on) or 2) people DGAF about optics.

Democrats need to forget about "who we are" strategy and just focus on issues that affect people.
Shove Trumpcare down everyone's throats.

They are better at infecting the ignorant with ideas, but they haven't shown to be able to convince people to LIKE being negatively affected by conservatives.

If conservative media were as effective as you are suggesting, Obama wouldn't have left office with such high approval ratings.
 

Balphon

Member
People are really really racist and would probably be against letting Jews into the country if the original German Nazis were resurrected, took over Israel and promised to slaughter every Jewish person in Israel unless the Jewish people were allowed into America.

Time to resurrect the Slattery Report.

We'll turn Alaska blue yet.
 
It's true he did deport more people and there was a huge outrage. He was trying to create goodwill to get an immigration law passed but it blew up in his face.

They were so close back in like 2014 to passing a bill.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
This is actually I think a big failure of Democratic messagimg (or, more cynically, a resounding success of moderate Democrats, heh). Hillary didn't really rail against huge monied interests. There was some talk about "an economy that works for everyone" but no messaging about who was to blame, or that the powers that be want you to believe it was immigration so that they weren't held accountable. Immigration was defended as it should be, but there wasn't a satisfying answer to "why is there such absurd income disparity" and instead we said "America is already great".

Preach!
 
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