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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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M

mo60

Member
VA and NC would become more red if the republicans diversified their party and appealed to minorities a bit more unless both states became more white.
 
B

Balphon

Member
Cybit said:
Going back to earlier talks about globalization...

https://bostonreview.net/forum/dean-baker-globalization-blame

Fantastic commentary that I wanted to point out (h/t to LGM)
Click to expand...

I'm not sure if the kind of credentialing programs he's suggesting would have the same impact on those sorts of professional jobs as they did on low-skill labor building widgets.

I guess I'd ask whether there have been similar results in professions that don't have such high barriers to entry? Has there been a flood of foreign-born electricians into the US?
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
avaya said:
But the shitty system means CA and NY are deemed less important than middle of nowhere USA. They shouldn't be, but they are.

The worry is what the fuck happened in PA to me, that is a substantial raw vote lead he dragged out. Was D turnout that anaemic in Philly burbs and Pittsburgh?
Click to expand...

But that's not my point. I'm arguing against the idea that the GOP or Trump is well liked. They aren't. Their voter distribution is better, but we don't need to give them ground they didn't earn.
 
T

Third Strike

Member
mo60 said:
VA and NC would become more red if the republicans diversified their party and appealed to minorities a bit more unless both states became more white.
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Think God I don't have to worry about the NC GOP doing that. ;) As NC becomes more diverse, the NC GOP becomes more divisive. It works well for the time being, but they're really shortsighted to what happens in the future.
 
S

soul creator

Member
sphagnum said:
Wouldn't be eligible for 3 more years even if I wanted to.
Click to expand...

Since Democrats are now the more Russophobic party, you'd have to run as a Republican anyway!

image.php
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
Reminder that NC has become about 1.5 points more Democratic relative to the nation as a whole in the past 8 years.
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Yes, but that's WITH all the voter suppression the NCGOP has done last year.

Eventually that wall the NCGOP has set up is going fall, and when it does the blue will come rushing in.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
TestOfTide said:
Yes, but that's WITH all the voter suppression the NCGOP has done last year.

Eventually that wall the NCGOP has set up is going fall, and when it does the blue will come rushing in.
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North Carolina's turnout in 2012 and 2016 was actually about the same, 64.8% of the voting eligible population.

Liberalizing voting is important but there's not really an indication that we lost because of turnout, unless the argument is that we lost because the black vote share went down and the white vote share went up. While this is probably true, it means that Trump's untapped voter strategy was successful and he galvanized nonvoters into supporting him, which means that demographic shifts there can be counterbalanced by rural surges or losing the rural margins by worse than before.

Also, it's R-tilt didn't change that much between 2008 and 2012 (a little under a point) and I don't think there was any tightening of voting rights in that period.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
North Carolina's turnout in 2012 and 2016 was actually about the same, 64.8% of the voting eligible population.

Liberalizing voting is important but there's not really an indication that we lost because of turnout, unless the argument is that we lost because the black vote share went down and the white vote share went up. While this is probably true, it means that Trump's untapped voter strategy was successful and he galvanized nonvoters into supporting him, which means that demographic shifts there can be counterbalanced by rural surges or losing the rural margins by worse than before.

Also, it's R-tilt didn't change that much between 2008 and 2012 (a little under a point) and I don't think there was any tightening of voting rights in that period.
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Yes, but you have to put that in the context of voter turnout by demographics. 2016 was the year in which rural conservative turnout was WAY UP while turnout among the Obama coalition was down compared to 2012.

Like, unless Trump is somehow able to repeat this rural conservative spike AND the Obama coalition continues to not turnout like they did for Obama, NC is trending blue in 2020.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Cybit said:
If trends hold the way they are, there's a very good chance that in 20-30 years, the election just basically comes down to Texas every time. Basically some version of this map.

OpDb7.png
Click to expand...

You'd also have a blue VA and NC. Also the EV power is going to keep shifting from the north to the sunbelt.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
TestOfTide said:
Yes, but you have to put that in the context of voter turnout by demographics. 2016 was the year in which rural conservative turnout was WAY UP while turnout among the Obama coalition was down compared to 2012.

Like, unless Trump is somehow able to repeat this rural conservative spike AND the Obama coalition continues to not turnout like they did for Obama, NC is trending blue in 2020.
Click to expand...
What if

a) liberalizing voting laws helps increase rural turnout, counterbalancing the liberated Democrats

b) the rural vote was a sleeping giant that has been awoken to discover its power to dominate the state elections and continues to vote like it did in 2016

c) the suburban college white voters Hillary pulled in abandon the Democrats as soon as they're offered a tax cut

d) Democrats saying "eh fuck off you hillbillies, we don't need you" pushes them to vote R in even wider margins than before

None of these are guarantees but all are possibilities and demographics are not destiny

whyamihere said:
You'd also have a blue VA and NC. Also the EV power is going to keep shifting from the north to the sunbelt.
Click to expand...
Plus Minnesota isn't have the same flight that its sisters in the lakes are and this election showed the Twin Cities can outvote the rural areas when they flip. It's not guaranteed but even if the rest of the Rust Belt is gone I don't think people should write off Minnesota.
 
M

mo60

Member
davepoobond said:
If I were a betting man I would say by the end of next year
Click to expand...

Or by the end of this year.

As long as trump is around and/or the GOP ideology is more right wing then center right college educated voters will continue to become more democrat even with tax cuts.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
What if

a) liberalizing voting laws helps increase rural turnout, counterbalancing the liberated Democrats
Click to expand...

Voters suppression rarely happens in rural white areas. It almost always is designed to target urban and minority voters.

b) the rural vote was a sleeping giant that has been awoken to discover its power to dominate the state elections and continues to vote like it did in 2016
Click to expand...

You don't get what I am saying. Trump did to the rural conservative vote what Obama did to the Obama Coalition vote. It's VERY unlikely that Trump will be able to recreate the same energy when his fanbase learns that the wall and muslim ban aren't happening.

c) the suburban college white voters Hillary pulled in abandon the Democrats as soon as they're offered a tax cut
Click to expand...

Very possible, but that would require the GOP to stop doing the things that piss off those college white voters in the first place (i.e. the blatant bigotry, the anti-intellectualism, and petty shit like the government shutdown).

d) Democrats saying "eh fuck off you hillbillies, we don't need you" pushes them to vote R in even wider margins than before
Click to expand...

Well yes, that would be a bad move. But I don't see that happening after this election.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
avaya said:
I trust you on this but I don't understand red VA or NC.
Click to expand...

whyamihere said:
You'd also have a blue VA and NC. Also the EV power is going to keep shifting from the north to the sunbelt.
Click to expand...

Eh, I wasn't trying to be too hyper specific about the states, the idea just being that the red / blue states end up evening out to the point where Texas becomes the deciding factor, and so the election just ends up being people voting in Texas. In that map, it's probably NC / FL / TX that really end up determining the election.

IE, don't read too much into the map beyond the idea of "post 2020 or 2030 census, Texas becomes big enough to be the deciding factor presidential elections"

Bonen no Max'd said:
What if

a) liberalizing voting laws helps increase rural turnout, counterbalancing the liberated Democrats

b) the rural vote was a sleeping giant that has been awoken to discover its power to dominate the state elections and continues to vote like it did in 2016

c) the suburban college white voters Hillary pulled in abandon the Democrats as soon as they're offered a tax cut

d) Democrats saying "eh fuck off you hillbillies, we don't need you" pushes them to vote R in even wider margins than before

None of these are guarantees but all are possibilities and demographics are not destiny
Click to expand...

Bingo.

One of the factors we have to account for is that as the hispanic / latino population grows, they will probably start becoming more diverse politically - this historically is what happens. If your counter-argument is that the GOP is racist and hispanics won't vote for them, I'll counter you with the argument that Trump bragged about sexual assault, is openly known as misogynistic, and won the white women vote. Sooo yeah. People have priorities on why they vote, and for a lot of women, pocketbooks > misogyny.

So the Sun Belt may slowly shift democratic, but considering that the GOP also has Cruz / Rubio / Haley on their bench as potential 2024 candidates, and we got a bunch of old white people for 2020 right now - demographics may not save us. (Also, I expect us to not win white college educated voters against anyone not named Trump, so that will shift things back)

Per http://www.270towin.com/news/2017/0...ectoral-vote-allocation_441.html#.WHgmVfkrKUk

Looks like NC, AZ, OR, FL, and TX are the states that will go up - so it might turn from a midwest race to a sun belt race, and the election coming down to basically "who wins Texas and Florida".
 
T

tuxfool

Banned
Mobius and pet octopus said:
How can any of trump's followers believe any of the shit he says, especially calling legit news "fake" when he has proven himself to be a pathological liar.
Click to expand...

They don't really care one way or the other. The only truth to them is the latest version of the lie he told. Whether the things he says happen to be true is a secondary concern.
 
M

mo60

Member
Cybit said:
Eh, I wasn't trying to be too hyper specific about the states, the idea just being that the red / blue states end up evening out to the point where Texas becomes the deciding factor, and so the election just ends up being people voting in Texas. In that map, it's probably NC / FL / TX that really end up determining the election.

IE, don't read too much into the map beyond the idea of "post 2020 or 2030 census, Texas becomes big enough to be the deciding factor presidential elections"



Bingo.

One of the factors we have to account for is that as the hispanic / latino population grows, they will probably start becoming more diverse politically - this historically is what happens. If your counter-argument is that the GOP is racist and hispanics won't vote for them, I'll counter you with the argument that Trump bragged about sexual assault, is openly known as misogynistic, and won the white women vote. Sooo yeah. People have priorities on why they vote, and for a lot of women, pocketbooks > misogyny.

So the Sun Belt may slowly shift democratic, but considering that the GOP also has Cruz / Rubio / Haley on their bench as potential 2024 candidates, and we got a bunch of old white people for 2020 right now - demographics may not save us. (Also, I expect us to not win white college educated voters against anyone not named Trump, so that will shift things back)

Per http://www.270towin.com/news/2017/0...ectoral-vote-allocation_441.html#.WHgmVfkrKUk

Looks like NC, AZ, OR, FL, and TX are the states that will go up - so it might turn from a midwest race to a sun belt race, and the election coming down to basically "who wins Texas and Florida".
Click to expand...

I don't see the republicans ever getting above 40% of the hispanic vote again unless they diverse their party. The democrats will probably never get 80%+ of the hispanic vote either.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Dierce said:
Hypothetically speaking, could the Democrats do to rural voters what republicans have done to minorities and the poor?
Click to expand...
Do you mean in relation to voting rights?

Because the rural voters often are poor (and a lot of the ones we lost this year were longtime Democrats) so they're also hurt by Republican policy that hurts the poor.

That said when I was looking up 2012 exit polls I saw some stuff that should be encouraging wrt taking the Rust Belt in 2020 if Republicans fuck up repealing the ACA as much as they look to.

michigan said:
ovXjdjr.png
Click to expand...
wisconsin said:
XBqXtZ9.png
Click to expand...
pennsylvania said:
cWmcAD8.png
Click to expand...
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Dierce said:
Hypothetically speaking, could the Democrats do to rural voters what republicans have done to minorities and the poor?
Click to expand...

No, because it's a lot harder to suppress the rural vote than it is to suppress the urban vote.

For example, all the GOP has to do to suppress the urban vote is close down some polling places in urban areas until suddenly the lines are horrendously long.

Doing that in Rural areas is pretty much impossible because the lines are never packed in rural places.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Assad threatened Israel.

BREAKING: Syrian army accuses Israel of attacking military airport near Damascus, warns of repercussions
Click to expand...

If Trump took questions more frequently than once every six months, this would be an important thing to ask him about.

https://twitter.com/haaretzcom/status/819709032831348736

(Assad isn't going to attack Israel but Trump is still allying with someone who just threatened to attack Israel while Trump says he's as pro-Israel as possible).
 
B

Brawly Likes to Brawl

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Assad threatened Israel.



If Trump took questions more frequently than once every six months, this would be an important thing to ask him about.

https://twitter.com/haaretzcom/status/819709032831348736

(Assad isn't going to attack Israel but Trump is still allying with someone who just threatened to attack Israel while Trump says he's as pro-Israel as possible).
Click to expand...

BB is stupid if he thinks it's a good idea to jump into Trump's arms because of what the UN did a little while ago.
 
N

NihonTiger90

Member
TestOfTide said:
No, because it's a lot harder to suppress the rural vote than it is to suppress the urban vote.

For example, all the GOP has to do to suppress the urban vote is close down some polling places in urban areas until suddenly the lines are horrendously long.

Doing that in Rural areas is pretty much impossible because the lines are never packed in rural places.
Click to expand...

The only way you could do that would be to do two things:

1.) Eliminate many rural voting locations

2.) Cut postal service to rural areas, making it harder for them to receive their voting info on time.

Both are fairly awful ideas that shouldn't be entertained.
 
D

Dierce

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
Do you mean in relation to voting rights?

Because the rural voters often are poor (and a lot of the ones we lost this year were longtime Democrats) so they're also hurt by Republican policy that hurts the poor.

That said when I was looking up 2012 exit polls I saw some stuff that should be encouraging wrt taking the Rust Belt in 2020 if Republicans fuck up repealing the ACA as much as they look to.
Click to expand...

TestOfTide said:
No, because it's a lot harder to suppress the rural vote than it is to suppress the urban vote.

For example, all the GOP has to do to suppress the urban vote is close down some polling places in urban areas until suddenly the lines are horrendously long.

Doing that in Rural areas is pretty much impossible because the lines are never packed in rural places.
Click to expand...

NihonTiger90 said:
The only way you could do that would be to do two things:

1.) Eliminate many rural voting locations

2.) Cut postal service to rural areas, making it harder for them to receive their voting info on time.

Both are fairly awful ideas that shouldn't be entertained.
Click to expand...

Yeah, it will probably happen on its own due to republican totalitarianism. They only believe in democracy to keep the front of legitimacy alive. We are almost at that stage where that won't be needed.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
It would be something if elections were decided by who could win the second biggest electoral prize. There could a ton of EV/PV splits.
 
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