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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Erodgan thinks that he can get Trump to extradite Gulen and can convince Trump that the Kurds are a terrorist group and that the U.S. should use only Turkish forces to defeat ISIS.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/11/world/middleeast/turkey-us-relations.html?ref=world&_r=0

I have no idea if Erodgan is right or not. Erdogan has Flynn on payroll so maybe Trump will go with Erodgan based on Flynn's advice, but the article rightly points out that a fight against ISIS only using Turkish forces is going to take forever.
 
S

sangreal

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Erodgan thinks that he can get Trump to extradite Gulen and can convince Trump that the Kurds are a terrorist group and that the U.S. should use only Turkish forces to defeat ISIS.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/11/world/middleeast/turkey-us-relations.html?ref=world&_r=0

I have no idea if Erodgan is right or not. Erdogan has Flynn on payroll so maybe Trump will go with Erodgan based on Flynn's advice, but the article rightly points out that a fight against ISIS only using Turkish forces is going to take forever.
Click to expand...

Trump can be convinced of anything except that people dislike him
 
A

Abinash117

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The GOP was planning to threaten a government shut down in April to fund THE WALL, but the legislators have seemingly no idea of anything that's going on and appear to have no plans or bills they're working on so who knows if that will happen.
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The government funding bill has to happen. I don't know if Paul will put the wall funding in the bill, I guess he is expecting the Democrats to oppose it and blame them for the shutdown. Although, your right there is seemingly no real plan right now.

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Erodgan thinks that he can get Trump to extradite Gulen and can convince Trump that the Kurds are a terrorist group and that the U.S. should use only Turkish forces to defeat ISIS.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/11/world/middleeast/turkey-us-relations.html?ref=world&_r=0

I have no idea if Erodgan is right or not. Erdogan has Flynn on payroll so maybe Trump will go with Erodgan based on Flynn's advice, but the article rightly points out that a fight against ISIS only using Turkish forces is going to take forever.
Click to expand...

Could happen, but one major problem. The SDF is the most effective at fighting ISIS right now, everyone in the government knows that. There would be major push back.

Just to understand the SDF has liberated thousands of km territory since their conception, and took over hundreds of villages, dams, a city, and killed hundreds of ISIS without losing much. The Turks and their rebel allies while they took a lot of territory in N.Aleppo they have been stuck fighting ISIS in Al-Bab for months even with the backing of Turkish military on the ground providing direct support.
 
B

BadenBadenLily

Banned
Diablos said:
SCOTUS is gone I think. Our best hope is a supermajority in congress someday that adds 2 more justices
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Even if Trump gets to replace one of Kennedy/Breyer/Ginsburg, Thomas will be 72 by the end of his term and much like Scalia he doesn't live a very healthy lifestyle. The court may be "gone", but it won't be gone "for a generation" if a Dem president gets to replace him.

Alito will also be 70 at the end of Trump's term.
 
E

Ernest

Banned
C4euLPfWMAAJ8nK.jpg


...will not be questioned.


How do they get away with saying shit like this?
 
M

mo60

Member
So it looks likely that trump's approval rating may reach sub 40% in like the next week or so at this point.This is insane. The people who thought that trump will end up being a one term president if he won the election last year may be right in the end.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
mo60 said:
So it looks likely that trump's approval rating may reach sub 40% in like the next week or so at this point.This is insane. The people who thought that trump will end up being a one term president if he won the election last year may be right in the end.
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you did not fit in your Canada reference......lol
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
Glenn GreenwaldVerified account
‏@ggreenwald

@No. I don't believe that unelected intelligence officials should go rogue and undermine the elected government.
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If the only people who resist are elected, there is no resistance.
 
E

ezrarh

Member
metalslimer said:
If these guys weren't running a circus that would be one of the scariest quotes i've ever read from the white house.
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It'd be scary if we had another 9/11 type attack. I don't think America's fear level is high enough to go along with this bullshit (outside of Trump's core supporters).
 
M

mo60

Member
NeoXChaos said:
you did not fit in your Canada reference......lol
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I'm going to laugh if trudeau lasts longer then trump in office at this point.Trump continues to not recognize that the one of th reason he won the election last year was because he was facing someone many people did not like. He is failing to appeal to the people that did not vote for him and as a result his approval rating is starting to drop at a consistent rate.

Anyway trudeau is going to meet trump tommorrow. I don't think Rachel Notley is ever going to speak to trump in person, but she's also meeting people in washington this week.
 
T

teiresias

Member
ezrarh said:
It'd be scary if we had another 9/11 type attack. I don't think America's fear level is high enough to go along with this bullshit (outside of Trump's core supporters).
Click to expand...

Even then I'm not sure if the country would go along with it. There hadn't been an event like 9/11 since probably Pearl Harbor, but nowadays, particularly with the growing feeling that Trump is actually bad for our international relations he'd likely be blamed for it since this administration doesn't have the discipline to harness it like the Bush administration did.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
mo60 said:
I'm going to laugh if trudeau lasts longer then trump in office at this point.Trump continues to not recognize that the one of th reason he won the election last year was because he was facing someone many people did not like. He is failing to appeal to the people that did not vote for him and as a result his approval rating is starting to drop at a consistent rate.

Anyway trudeau is going to meet trump tommorrow. I don't think Rachel Notley is ever going to speak to trump in person, but she's also meeting people in washington this week.
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After breaking his promise on electoral reform I'd be uh, nervous about Trudeau staying in office since it's hard to peel off NDP voters when you lied about what you'd do, especially since you only need like 40% of the vote in Canada to get a majority parliament.
 
Emerson

Emerson

May contain jokes =>
Any photos or video of who is/was outside his Florida estate today, since we're calling him a liar?

I'm sure he is lying, but it'd be nice to know.
 
M

mo60

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
After breaking his promise on electoral reform I'd be uh, nervous about Trudeau staying in office since it's hard to peel off NDP voters when you lied about what you'd do, especially since you only need like 40% of the vote in Canada to get a majority parliament.
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The Liberal Party in Canada is still polling like 5%+ higher then the conservatives on average in polls. I'm not worried right now. Trudeau's not in danger of losing the next election as long as the federal NDP stays below 20% in polls.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Imagine how the White House Correspondents' Association dinner will go, lol.

edit: Lol at people thinking the NDP will get votes. The problem will be the CPC.

edit2: Also, Flynn is probably the courier between Trump and Russia.

Holmes said:
Trudeau should be able to hang on if the new Conservstive leader sucks Hudak-style (very likely) and voters have the fear of Trump in their hearts (very likely). But now New Democrats know him as the fraud he is.
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What New Democrats? That party is finished. I see no interest at all here, less than ever.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Trudeau should be able to hang on if the new Conservstive leader sucks Hudak-style (very likely) and voters have the fear of Trump in their hearts (very likely). But now New Democrats know him as the fraud he is.
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Ether_Snake said:
Imagine how the White House Correspondents' Association dinner will go, lol.
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This is a perfect opportunity to shut the dinner down. It's truly the worst example of how cozy administrations and the media can get.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
I've been thinking about this quote from Nixon on Iran Contra a lot.

Reagan will survive, because, when all is said and done, Reagan can get up and say 'I am an idiot and therefore I can't be blamed,' and everyone will agree. I never had that option.
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Trump has run on anti-intellectualism, but Trump has prided himself and has gotten voters to vote for him based on his supposed competence and intelligence. When Trump fails at an external crisis or when he's caught in a controversy that he should have known about, I have to wonder how the numbers will react...
 
D

Dubbedinenglish

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I've been thinking about this quote from Nixon on Iran Contra a lot.



Trump has run on anti-intellectualism, but Trump has prided himself and has gotten voters to vote for him based on his supposed competence and intelligence. When Trump fails at an external crisis or when he's caught in a controversy that he should have known about, I have to wonder how the numbers will react...
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Difference with Trump is he'll just say, "No I was right"
 
F

Freeza Under The Shower

Member
Y2Kev said:
They should bring the West Wing back.
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Another horror show about how the reality you don't want becomes it? I just finished watching Parks & Recreation, I don't think I can stomach another horror show like that.
(Season 4 was basically the 2016 election to a scary degree)
I liked how they framed the one episode where they had Bradley Whitford in the style of the West Wing though.

But I think for a more realistic show you should probably watch Braindead (2016, CBS).

Frankly, I don't think the voter you want to reach will watch what you need them to see (and know about). It would be great to see another West Wing level show, but I think the US and other western countries are past the point where bipartisanship is still a thing.
 
M

mo60

Member
It would be crazy if Iowa flipped back to being a blue state again but it's likely if trump pisses off enough people in that state.
 
M

Mobius and pet octopus

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The amount of Socialists who call for ending all student debt has me rolling my eyes. Yeah, the people making 100k a year as engineers are really the people we need to redistribute wealth to right now.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/fe...protests-historic-chance-170211094824566.html

I mean, maybe you can call for eliminating all student debt from students from for profit colleges, but all student debt? Please. There are lots of people who have student debt but are going to be upper middle class very soon and need help way less than almost anyone else.
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I think college enrollment should be free. The benefits are too high to be ignored. The people who attend will earn more over their life times and contribute more to federal taxes, along with the benefits their job provides to society. I think people have called for public service of some sort to qualify and that will contribute as well.

I sort of see it as the fact that public education is free and paid for by taxes, why stop at high school? The needs of our society requires higher education than ever before. People shouldn't go broke trying to enter the work force that we actually need to progress imo.

Also, I'm not a socialist in case you're rolling your eyes right now.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Roland_Gunner said:
Didn't see this posted earlier; Queen Ann Selzer has a new poll out showing 51% of Iowans are now opposed to Trump's Muslim EO. If the wwc is already turning against Trump 2018 could be yuuuge for the Dems.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...s-disagree-trumps-immigration-order/97764116/
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Disagreement with the executive order rates highest in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District, which includes Des Moines, where there are several immigrant and refugee enclaves. Support for the order runs highest in the vast and rural 4th District — the only district in the state where a majority say they agree with the ban.
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Interesting. The 3rd is pretty Republican.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
BadenBadenLily said:
Even if Trump gets to replace one of Kennedy/Breyer/Ginsburg, Thomas will be 72 by the end of his term and much like Scalia he doesn't live a very healthy lifestyle. The court may be "gone", but it won't be gone "for a generation" if a Dem president gets to replace him.

Alito will also be 70 at the end of Trump's term.
Click to expand...

I'd guess there's around 50/50 odds either Alito or Thomas die in office by 2032, assuming democrats win the next 3 presidential elections to block them out of retiring. And democrats would need the senate to avoid another Garland situation.

Certainly not impossible that it's only lost for a decade, but I don't love the odds, and am not very comforted by 10 years of strong conservative control.


Ever since Nixon annihilated the Warren Court 45 years ago, there's only really been 3 opportunities to drastically change the court's ideology.

- Thurgood Marshal who resigned for health reasons in 1991 and was replaced by Thomas. Thurgood Marshal didn't die until after Clinton took office.

- William Rehnquist, who announced a cancer diagnosis 2 weeks before the 2004 election, and died the next year. The seat would have likely turned liberal if Kerry had won, or at least more moderate than Roberts.

- Antonin Scalia, who you all know the story of.

So I wouldn't bank too much on back and forth swings here, given how rare the opportunities are, and how hard it is to execute on it. Democrats really need to keep all of Kennedy/Breyer/Ginsburg to hold until they win back the presidency.
 
M

mo60

Member
TiredofWinning said:
Doesn't Iowa depend on trade with China a lot?
Click to expand...

Yep. And other countries like Mexico.

thepotatoman said:
I'd guess there's around 50/50 odds either Alito or Thomas die in office by 2032, assuming democrats win the next 3 presidential elections to block them out of retiring. And democrats would need the senate to avoid another Garland situation.

Certainly not impossible that it's only lost for a decade, but I don't love the odds, and am not very comforted by 10 years of strong conservative control.


Ever since Nixon annihilated the Warren Court 45 years ago, there's only really been 3 opportunities to drastically change the court's ideology.

- Thurgood Marshal who resigned for health reasons in 1991 and was replaced by Thomas. Thurgood Marshal didn't die until after Clinton took office.

- William Rehnquist, who announced a cancer diagnosis 2 weeks before the 2004 election, and died the next year. The seat would have likely turned liberal if Kerry had won, or at least more moderate than Roberts.

- Antonin Scalia, who you all know the story of.

So I wouldn't bank too much on back and forth swings here, given how rare the opportunities are, and how hard it is to execute on it. Democrats really need to keep all of Kennedy/Breyer/Ginsburg to hold until they win back the presidency.
Click to expand...

It's going to really hard for democrats to win the next three presidential elections unless trump destroys the republican party for the next decade or two if he loses the next election.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Mobius and pet octopus said:
I think college enrollment should be free. The benefits are too high to be ignored. The people who attend will earn more over their life times and contribute more to federal taxes, along with the benefits their job provides to society. I think people have called for public service of some sort to qualify and that will contribute as well.

I sort of see it as the fact that public education is free and paid for by taxes, why stop at high school? The needs of our society requires higher education than ever before. People shouldn't go broke trying to enter the work force that we actually need to progress imo.

Also, I'm not a socialist in case you're rolling your eyes right now.
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I'm fine with the argument that college should be free.

I don't like the idea of paying off student loan debt of people that now have high paying jobs. It doesn't create any incentives that will create more doctors or engineers and instead just gives more money to the upper middle class when the poor could use the money more.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
whyamihere said:
Interesting. The 3rd is pretty Republican.
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In 2012 it voted for Obama along with the 1st and 2nd.

Iowa's swing was interesting because you went from Obama winning three of the four to Trump winning all four, a particularly volatile shift. I won't say that Biden or Sanders would have won the state, but I do think Clinton just proved to be an absolutely horrible fit for Iowa.

I think the best we can hope for is for a minor Dem resurgence in the Midwest driven by backlash against Trump and residual blue dog support. Obviously these states are going red in the long-term, but we'll need them unless AZ/GA/TX realign dramatically more quickly. Maybe not to hit 270, but if we want a Democratic House and Senate again anytime soon.
 
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