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[Plinko]

Last I heard it was "everyone will flip by Monday." But here we are and nobody's flipped. If anything people are distancing themselves slightly more.

The CBO just came out. Give it time.

I also don't get how Murkowski isn't out against this already. It is career suicide to vote for this.

 

[whyamihere]

Well, McConnell gave our his two passes.

 

[Gruco]

Rand, Collins, Heller, and Lee. Would prefer another no from the "moderate" and right-wing factions, just for safety's sake. Perhaps there will will be a scattering like there was before the first House vote now that there is this much open criticism?

OR...this is it and two flip back.

 

[whyamihere]

The CBO just came out. Give it time.

I also don't get how Murkowski isn't out against this already. It is career suicide to vote for this.

Because McConnell needs her and she really doesn't want to vote yes.

 

[Kusagari]

I don't like Murkowski's waffling and the Lee, Cruz, Paul, Johnson brigade are snakes.

 

[The Technomancer]

this actually sort of reminds me of Hypernormalization and the idea that the failure of the left in the era of neoliberalism is its failure to present any sort of compelling alternative to the current status quo. After ceding power entirely to the right in the post-Reagan world it could not present itself as a compelling alternative, only a nicer version of the status quo. For all the (real) talk of the Southern Strategy killing the New Deal era, the social democratic left in the entire first world fell apart and parties that haven't adjusted to that are collapsing (PS, SPD, Labour until just now).

It's interesting how much of the vanguard of the new insurgent left really are just social democrats from before the total collapse of the social democratic left, Bernie isn't really all that different from a New Dealer just updated a bit for the 21st century, but the ideas are largely about returning to the past. Much as I love them, I think part of why the insurgent left struggles to take power is that it can't quite formulate its alternative other than in terms of a return to pre-1980s social democracy. It's something I think you've touched on indirectly when you criticize Sanders' trade stances.

I think I would broadly agree with this. I would certainly say that many of my...call them concerns with what you dub the insurgent left often stem from feeling that they're still operating in a different era. I've touched before on my suspicion of flavors of leftist thought that I find to be too labor centric, in that they center the idea of engaging in labor in a way that feels like it may become outmoded at an accelerating rate

 

[sangreal]

I'd rather they vote to proceed then tank the bill, which would kill instead of delay it

 

[Ogodei]

This is why the bill will still pass.

Benjy Sarlin @BenjySarlin

So next few days: Senators are not encouraged by the CBO score, but McConnell can spend $200b encouraging them. Don't assume it fails.

And in the time it takes him, they have to adjust CBO score. If he makes it separate spending legislation, then the Dems can filibuster.

 

[Loxley]

For what it's worth, Collins is doubling down on her "No" vote on Twitter right now.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

For what it's worth, Collins is doubling down her "No" vote on Twitter right now.

See, it's stuff like this and Heller's statement on Friday that makes me kind of not think this is planned.

These are really harsh criticisms of the bill that don't seem like they'd come from the pre-established "no" votes if this was all a charade.

 

[kirblar]

For what it's worth, Collins is doubling down her "No" vote on Twitter right now.

Given the rumors behind what went down w/ her in the ACA negotiations, this is both unsurprising and surprising at the same time.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Yes, especially her first tweet about wanting to work with Dems doesn't leave a lot of room for walking back.

 

[Autodidact]

Given the rumors behind what went down w/ her in the ACA negotiations, this is both unsurprising and surprising at the same time.

Would you mind recapping? I thought they made more of an effort to court Snowe, who voted for the ACA in committee but not on the floor.

 

[~Kinggi~]

I really needed a big bada boom today. seems it was not meant to be. no oppoium in ma veins today

 

[kirblar]

Would you mind recapping? I thought they made more of an effort to court Snowe, who voted for the ACA in committee but not on the floor.

There were rumblings that there was a group of GOPers saying behind the scenes (that I thought Collins was a part of) saying: "We support this but can't vote for it."

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I really needed a big bada boom today. seems it was not meant to be. no oppoium in ma veins today

The GOP attempting to take insurance away from 15 million people by the end of this year isn't a big bada boom?

 

[Ogodei]

So if Heller and Collins are solid, then it comes down to whether Paul sticks to his conservative principles: and he can't be bribed at least.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Where's Benjamin Wittes' promised oppo-droppo?

Am I going to have to treat him like Louise Mensch, basically ignoring all his "tick, tick" stuff from now on?

If it causes you this level of stress, then yeah, you should ignore Wittes and everyone else on Twitter.

 

[thefro]

See, it's stuff like this and Heller's statement on Friday that makes me kind of not think this is planned.

These are really harsh criticisms of the bill that don't seem like they'd come from the pre-established "no" votes if this was all a charade.

Well, if it passes it'll wipe out a bunch of Republicans' political careers.

Not worth it to get Trump a "win" and some temporary tax cuts for the rich (and some of the moderates allegedly like Obamacare privately).

 

[whyamihere]

I mean, my guess is that Capito and Murkowski absolutely do not want to vote for this. McConnell needs them. So... here we are.

 

[Autodidact]

I mean, my guess is that Capito and Murkowski absolutely do not want to vote for this. McConnell needs them. So... here we are.

Grudge match and winner gets to vote no. Murkowski will win because she has crazy eyes like Carter Page.

But seriously, somebody needs to channel Satan in Paradise Lost and whisper in Murkowski's ear: "You're invincible. You won a WRITE-IN. What can they do to you? You hate those motherfuckers anyway. Just vote no."

 

[Poodlestrike]

For what it's worth, Collins is doubling down on her "No" vote on Twitter right now.

This I think is as much a consequence of the process as the product. Collins seems like she had her own ideas about Republican healthcare legislation and getting locked out of the writing had to have stung. Now, couple it with the accelerated timetable (designed to ram it down legislators throats before they have time to get pressured from the outside) and the obviously garbage nature of the bill, I can see why she'd bolt.

I mean, my guess is that Capito and Murkowski absolutely do not want to vote for this. McConnell needs them. So... here we are.

If Heller and Collins are as firm as they seem, and Rand stays obstinate... he kind of doesn't need them? Because, like, there's his voting majority right there.

If those three are for real expect to see Murkowski, Collins, and probably Flake all run for the hills too.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Grudge match and winner gets to vote no. Murkowski will win because she has crazy eyes like Carter Page.

They both have to vote yes. Heller + Collins is the two confirmed nos (not counting Rand). One more and it's dead.

 

[DonShula]

So if Heller and Collins are solid, then it comes down to whether Paul sticks to his conservative principles: and he can't be bribed at least.

I love how he keeps unintentionally saving the ACA.

 

[kirblar]

Alaska and WV both get destroyed by this. This is the problem w/ those two.

 

[Aaron Strife]

This I think is as much a consequence of the process as the product. Collins seems like she had her own ideas about Republican healthcare legislation and getting locked out of the writing had to have stung. Now, couple it with the accelerated timetable (designed to ram it down legislators throats before they have time to get pressured from the outside) and the obviously garbage nature of the bill, I can see why she'd bolt.

Yeah Collins (along with Cassidy) was the only senator to actually put forth a legitimate (albeit somewhat shitty) alternative to ACA. McConnell promising some secret sauce bill and having it be this fucking garbage that mirrors the House bill in every way must feel like some straight up bullshit.

If she holds her ground on this and the bill dies she might regain some of the respect I've lost for her (however irrelevant to her I'm sure that is). But if McConnell still gets to 50 without her I'm not giving her those props.

 

[TestOfTide]

There were rumblings that there was a group of GOPers saying behind the scenes (that I thought Collins was a part of) saying: "We support this but can't vote for it."

Biden also brought up last year that he knew of 10 Senators that privately admitted to him that the blocking of Garland was unacceptable.

These days GOP moderates have little to no power in the party, so it's not surprising that they are afraid to actually stand up to McConnell.


BTW, I'm calling it: Carter Page was flipped by the FBI and that's the BOOM that Wittes is waiting for. Why else would the FBI have interviewed him for TEN HOURS across 5 different meetings in the month of March.

 

[Vixdean]

I'll still never believe a single one of these R mother fuckers until they actually vote. Every one them paraded around with MAGA hats on and cheered their new sexual assaulter in chief in January. They are sociopaths, words mean nothing to them and they can always go back on them.

 

[royalan]

I'll still never believe a single one of these R mother fuckers until they actually vote. Every one them paraded around with MAGA hats on and cheered their new sexual assaulter in chief in January. They are sociopaths, words mean nothing to them and they can always go back on them.

Amen.

The GOP wants to maintain their dignity? Then let them do the honorable thing and stand by it for once.

Until then, I'm all out of fucks for what they say in private.

 

[TestOfTide]

I'll still never believe a single one of these R mother fuckers until they actually vote. Every one them paraded around with MAGA hats on and cheered their new sexual assaulter in chief in January. They are sociopaths, words mean nothing to them and they can always go back on them.

Amen.

The GOP wants to maintain their dignity? Then let them do the honorable thing and stand by it for once.

Until then, I'm all out of fucks for what they say in private.

I think you are thinking this is about morals when it's not. It's still about politics, but there are GOP Senators who have a lot to lose politically if they vote for this bill.

McConnell is trying to force Senators to vote for this bill by telling them that it's political suicide to fail to repeal the ACA, but some of the GOP Senators know that the real political suicide is to be on record for voting for the AHCA/PCRA.

 

[NeoXChaos]

https://twitter.com/jacobfhsmith/status/879482148578885632

Hardball‏Verified account
@hardball
"They have to get elected in states like OH, PA. Why would Toomey, Portman vote for (political) suicide?" @HardballChris on healthcare bill.

Jacob Smith‏ @jacobfhsmith 4m4 minutes ago
Jacob Smith Retweeted Hardball
Portman and Toomey are up in 2022. A political lifetime away, could well be another midterm with a D president.

Trump 2nd term it is then lol

 

[balladofwindfishes]

They're not negotiating? Does McConnell actually want this to fail?

Rand Paul seems to be moving more into a hard no at this rate

 

[thefro]

I think you are thinking this is about morals when it's not. It's still about politics, but there are GOP Senators who have a lot to lose politically if they vote for this bill.

McConnell is trying to force Senators to vote for this bill by telling them that it's political suicide to fail to repeal the ACA, but some of the GOP Senators know that the real political suicide is to be on record for voting for the AHCA/PCRA.

Even the Trump fans at work think this bill as-is is shit.

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

I am also having serious doubts that the backlash is going to be gathered and appropriately focused for maximum gain by Democratic leadership. I'd love to be proven wrong. I see better ideas for Dem messaging on GAF than what we end up getting on TV.

That's less prophecy and more history given the lethargic mumbling.

Biden also brought up last year that he knew of 10 Senators that privately admitted to him that the blocking of Garland was unacceptable.

These days GOP moderates have little to no power in the party, so it's not surprising that they are afraid to actually stand up to McConnell.

They're not a voting block is why. Even the Tuesday Group held out for a month before *unknown* happened. They have power, they just wont USE it. And they'll keep getting whipped by amoral, unethical, ignorants until they manage to.

How much power is a primary threat in a Dem wave anyways?

 

[Suikoguy]

I'd change my bet from could go either way, to probably not passing.

 

[Emerson]

They're not negotiating? Does McConnell actually want this to fail?

Rand Paul seems to be moving more into a hard no at this rate

I still don't really think McConnell gives a shit about this bill. It's not his pet project and it's nothing but an enormous albatross around his neck. The vast majority of Republican senators would prefer this bill never have left the House to fester in their lap.

Maybe he really just wants to get a vote and have it done with win or lose.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

When they leave office (Which I think a lot of these people want to get out of dodge fast), they will get a huge cushy job that is probably waiting for them from some conservative CEO that bribed them.


Oh, and tax cuts for themselves.

 

[RustyNails]

This has always been the case. It's not like anyone on the fence forgot about this. The recent waffling has that factored in.

"Waffling has that factored in" is my new favorite sentence.

 

[Plinko]

Dave Weigel‏Verified account @daveweigel

One effect of #GA06 is that Rs think that whatever happens w this bill -- if they face angry voters -- they can paper over it w Pelosi ads

LOL

 

[RustyNails]

I'd change my bet from could go either way, to probably not passing.

I want to keep my optimism in check but as of right this moment it looks like this might blow up in turtle's face.

 

[BlastProcessing]

@etuckerAP
Carter Page tells AP that FBI "acknowledged that I'm a loyal American veteran but indicated that their 'management' was concerned" (1/2)

"The FBI was pretty cool. It got really hot for some reason and this one nice guy gave me water. I liked him. The other guy was SUPER mean, but that's ok."

 

[SomewhatGroovy]

So how did Gorsuch rule in the case of the gay couple against the bakers?

 

[Owzers]

I don't trust people who want to do worse things to save us from bad things.

Team Heller and Collins vote no and it passes.

 

[Autodidact]

LOL

Nah, the Pelosi strategy only worked (1) because it was one race that had garnered national attention and (2) they hadn't yet produced a firm piece of legislation with these horrific numbers. They can't scapegoat Pelosi this time.

Of course, certain "progressive" people will say again that she needs to go.

 

[royalan]

I think you are thinking this is about morals when it's not. It's still about politics, but there are GOP Senators who have a lot to lose politically if they vote for this bill.

McConnell is trying to force Senators to vote for this bill by telling them that it's political suicide to fail to repeal the ACA, but some of the GOP Senators know that the real political suicide is to be on record for voting for the AHCA/PCRA.

That this isn't about morals is kinda my point.

The achy breaky feelings of some of the GOP behind the scenes rarely has any bearing on how they actually vote. It's a useless exercise meant to make some on the left feel better about the inherent "goodness" of Washington.

We'll see what happens when they vote. I'd like to be proven wrong, but I rarely am when it comes to the GOP and their ability to shut up and fall in line.

 

[Plinko]

They're not negotiating? Does McConnell actually want this to fail?

Rand Paul seems to be moving more into a hard no at this rate

Probably because Paul wants concessions that make it worse, and the GOP already knows it's terrible. They are probably accepting his no and moving to others.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Probably because Paul wants concessions that make it worse, and the GOP already knows it's terrible. They are probably accepting his no and moving to others.

They can't accept his no. His no would kill the bill.

 

[Fenderputty]

They can't accept his no. His no would kill the bill.

Does rand care more about tax cuts of political grandstanding?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Does rand care more about tax cuts of political grandstanding?

I don't care why Rand opposes the bill, just that he does.

 

[Poodlestrike]

@etuckerAP
Carter Page tells AP that FBI "acknowledged that I'm a loyal American veteran but indicated that their 'management' was concerned" (1/2)

"The FBI was pretty cool. It got really hot for some reason and this one nice guy gave me water. I liked him. The other guy was SUPER mean, but that's ok."

Wow, he really is so unbelievably incredibly stupid.
There's... like, I can't understand this. How does a man this dumb not kill himself trying to walk and breath at the same time?