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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
kirblar said:
Comparing only two data points is not how you identify trends.
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I was just correcting his false assertion that Virginia had moved to be more Republican between 2012 and 2016.

Though for what it's worth the trend from 2008->2012 was also Nevada becoming more Republican relative to the nation, going from a D+5.5 to D+2.8. Of course, it trended blue from 2004->2008 because Bush won it twice. It's almost like saying it isn't a swing state anymore is ridiculous!
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
Virginia went from even to D+3 from 2012->2016

All a future Democrat needs to do to lose is have their margins be slightly worse and have slightly lower Latino turnout, both of which are conceivable.
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You don't get what I'm saying so I'll explain it this way:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada,_2012
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada,_2016

Looking at the numbers, turnout was DOWN in the Blue parts of Nevada but UP in the Red parts compared to 2012. 2016 was basically the best case scenario for a republican and the democrat STILL won.

You are saying that all that needs to happen for a democrat to lose is for latino turnout to be slightly lower, but in truth it was already down AND for republican to win they would need to keep that rural white turnout way up like in 2016, which is the equivalent to expecting Obama to get the same sort of turnout for his base in 2012 than he got in 2008.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
broz0rs said:
Senator Johnson of Wisconsin opposing

https://twitter.com/DanaBashCNN/status/879505016150790145
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He implied a few days ago he didn't like the process, so this is just him confirming it again

He doesn't seem to particularly care about the contents of the law, he just doesn't like that it was rushed, so he's not a confident no (he'd likely vote for it in late July if they delayed the vote), but one that could kill it if the bill did come to a vote this week due to McConnell either being cocky, or not caring if it passes or not.
 
C

chadskin

Member
The red line is back

DDSrCgwWAAE44Q2.jpg
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Diablos said:
If Mitch changes the bill can the Dems filibuster?
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If Mitch changes the bill and tries to pass it before a CBO score comes out, then yes they can.

I don't think it matters at this point, because we are seeing that the Senate doesn't even have 50 votes that are willing to sign on to the HFC's demands.
 
D

Diablos

Member
TestOfTide said:
If Mitch changes the bill and tries to pass it before a CBO score comes out, then yes they can.

I don't think it matters at this point, because we are seeing that the Senate doesn't even have 50 votes that are willing to sign on to the HFC's demands.
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He could change the rules of course...
 
G

GrapeApes

Member
chadskin said:
The red line is back

DDSrCgwWAAE44Q2.jpg
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Can I get a link to that? Not finding it outright.

TestOfTide said:
While that's true, Rand voting for this bill would probably make him much more vulnerable to a primary challenge considering that this GOP healthcare bill doesn't even much support among republicans.
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I just don't buy these red state senators being primaried by someone to their left. Can't see bringing back Obamacare as a popular position in a GOP primary. This bill is a shit burger but it's their shit burger.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
GrapeApes said:
I just don't buy these red state senators being primaried by someone to their left. Can't see bringing back Obamacare as a popular position in a GOP primary. This bill is a shit burger but it's their shit burger.
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They're woried about losing to the left if it passes and being primaried by the ultra right if they don't repeal. Rand is setting himself up to vote no because the bill is not far right enough. I assume he thinks it will provide him cover and that's assuming he actually votes no. I speculated earlier that he may want this to fail since Kentucky is a Medicaid expansion state and his super right stance gives him cover to kill the for reason that keep him safe. Sort of having his cake and eating it too.

Who knows though. I fully expect Paul to flip to a yes if it's between his vote and not getting taxes done


Edit: "double" of something is a 100% gain. There's planety to pick at there besides silly word games
 
S

Snowman Prophet of Doom

Member
Fenderputty said:
They're woried about losing to the left if it passes and being primaried by the ultra right if they don't repeal. Rand is setting himself up to vote no because the bill is not far right enough. I assume he thinks it will provide him cover and that's assuming he actually votes no. I speculated earlier that he may want this to fail since Kentucky is a Medicaid expansion state and his super right stance gives him cover to kill the for reason that keep him safe. Sort of having his cake and eating it too.

Who knows though. I fully expect Paul to flip to a yes if it's between his vote and not getting taxes done


Edit: "double" of something is a 100% gain. There's planety to pick at there besides silly word games
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That's an incredibly weird phrasing, though. It was less than half the CBO estimate, or the CBO estimate was over 100% greater than what ended up actually happening, would be the ways a human being would put that.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
GrapeApes said:
I just don't buy these red state senators being primaried by someone to their left. Can't see bringing back Obamacare as a popular position in a GOP primary. This bill is a shit burger but it's their shit burger.
Click to expand...

I think Paul is showing how a clever politician can blur the lines between right and left. If this bill is the disaster everyone expects someone like Murkowski could definetly get hit for voting for a bill than left health care overly regulated and full of inefficiencies or some garbage. People won't care what the cause is just that their healthcare is terrible and she voted for the BRCA.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
12m
Steve Kopack‏ @SteveKopack
Officials at CENTCOM tell BuzzFeed that they have "no idea" what prompted the White House threat to Assad tonight
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That oppo coming must be something huge.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
Yeah, if it didn't work back when more people were still in the "give him a chance" phase, it won't work now. He got like a fleeting 1% bump from those strikes.

But if they're this desperate, maybe my prediction of intercepted communications/emails is correct, or maybe - if we're really, REALLY lucky - audio or video of some sort.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Autodidact said:
Yeah, if it didn't work back when more people were still in the "give him a chance" phase, it won't work now. He got like a fleeting 1% bump from those strikes.

But if they're this desperate, maybe my prediction of intercepted communications/emails is correct, or maybe - if we're really, REALLY lucky - audio or video of some sort.
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Pee Pee Tape incoming
 
C

chadskin

Member
Buzzfeed updated its story: https://www.buzzfeed.com/claudiakoerner/white-house-says-syria-may-be-preparing-another-chemical
Five defense officials reached by BuzzFeed News said they not only did not know where the potential chemical attack would come from, but they were unaware the White House was planning to release the statement. Usually such statements are coordinated across the national security agencies and departments before they are released.
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Like what the hell. Is Spicey going rogue?
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
It may not even be about Trump himself, but maybe we'll get concrete charges against someone in the inner circle. WaPo's story about Page today seemed to be setting the stage for something of that sort.
 
V

Vixdean

Member
Rebel Leader said:
From the cbo thread




Holy shit.
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It's also a straight up lie. Yes, the CBO overestimated the amount of people who would be covered by plans purchased from the exchanges, but they also vastly underestimated the amount of people who would gain coverage through Medicaid. The total amount of new insured that they predicted was right on.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Surfinn said:
Could be delayed because of the healthcare stuff.

Whatever it is must be big if they're actually planning a day of the week for the thing. Not to mention the desperate and seemingly random flailing of the WH.
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No one would delay a huge story. A big scoop is how to distinguish yourself from the competition and only a fool would give their competition an opportunity to beat them to the punch. If there's something big coming the only reason it's not out yet is simply because it hasn't been nailed down and is still going through the editorial process.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
For someone who supposedly cares so much about the military and respects the intelligence community, the Trump administration continuously fails to give them even the most basic of notice before doing things...

B-Dubs said:
No one would delay a huge story. A big scoop is how to distinguish yourself from the competition and only a fool would give their competition an opportunity to beat them to the punch. If there's something big coming the only reason it's not out yet is simply because it hasn't been nailed down and is still going through the editorial process.
Click to expand...

The only thing I would add, is that its justifiable to sometime delay a story to ensure you have adequate sources or consult with council to avoid going to jail.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
neurosisxeno said:
For someone who supposedly cares so much about the military and respects the intelligence community, the Trump administration continuously fails to give them even the most basic of notice before doing things...
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Good. The less courtesy and loyalty he shows to them, the less loyal they'll be to him and the more likely they'll be to question his decisions.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
neurosisxeno said:
The only thing I would add, is that its justifiable to sometime delay a story to ensure you have adequate sources or consult with council to avoid going to jail.
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I mean, that's part of the whole editorial process. If you've got a big scoop like something on the Russia thing, it's only natural you're going to let the lawyers have a day or two with it to make sure you aren't going to jail or exposing your paper/network/website to litigation.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
B-Dubs said:
I mean, that's part of the whole editorial process. If you've got a big scoop like something on the Russia thing, it's only natural you're going to let the lawyers have a day or two with it to make sure you aren't going to jail or exposing your paper/network/website to litigation.
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Exactly. It was hinted at on Friday, could take them a few days to verify everything and consult with council, leading to a Tuesday Oppo Dropo. The media loves Tues/Thu dumps.
 
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