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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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B

BoogieWoogie

Banned
Greigor The Fellhand said:
these L's
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/03/climate/court-blocks-epa-effort-to-suspend-obama-era-methane-rule.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share

Court Blocks E.P.A. Effort to Suspend Obama-Era Methane Rule

"In a 2-to-1 ruling, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit concluded that the EPA had the right to reconsider a 2016 rule limiting methane and smog-forming pollutants emitted by oil and gas wells but could not delay the effective date for two years while it sought to rewrite the regulation."
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Thank God
 
G

gaugebozo

Member
Atlagev said:
The Democrats won't be able to take back the Senate in 2018 because of partisan gerrymandering.
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The thing with gerrymandering is that it spreads out the vote of the party it benefits. Look at the graph in this WaPo article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...lanation-of-gerrymandering-you-will-ever-see/

On the graph, the gerrymandered red districts are 6 red to 4 blue. The issue is that in a wave year, if blue gets an across the board +3 bump (big but not crazy), red gets wiped everywhere. This is obviously a simplification, but it's clear: there has to be less +5 red districts to make this work, and so red is more prone than blue to swings.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
gaugebozo said:
The thing with gerrymandering is that it spreads out the vote of the party it benefits. Look at the graph in this WaPo article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...lanation-of-gerrymandering-you-will-ever-see/

On the graph, the gerrymandered red districts are 6 red to 4 blue. The issue is that in a wave year, if blue gets an across the board +3 bump (big but not crazy), red gets wiped everywhere. This is obviously a simplification, but it's clear: there has to be less +5 red districts to make this work, and so red is more prone than blue to swings.
Click to expand...

(The poster was being sarcastic, gerrymandering doesn't affect the Senate at all).
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

Dow hit a new intraday all-time high! I wonder whether or not the Fake News Media will so report?

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

Really great numbers on jobs & the economy! Things are starting to kick in now, and we have just begun! Don't like steel & aluminum dumping!

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

Thank you to Shawn Steel for the nice words on @FoxNews.
 
R

Rebel Leader

THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Wilsongt said:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

Dow hit a new intraday all-time high! I wonder whether or not the Fake News Media will so report?

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

Really great numbers on jobs & the economy! Things are starting to kick in now, and we have just begun! Don't like steel & aluminum dumping!

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

Thank you to Shawn Steel for the nice words on @FoxNews.
Click to expand...
Didn't he say during the campaign not to believe in the stock market?
 
D

Diablos

Member
Greigor The Fellhand said:
these L's
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/03/climate/court-blocks-epa-effort-to-suspend-obama-era-methane-rule.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share

Court Blocks E.P.A. Effort to Suspend Obama-Era Methane Rule

"In a 2-to-1 ruling, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit concluded that the EPA had the right to reconsider a 2016 rule limiting methane and smog-forming pollutants emitted by oil and gas wells but could not delay the effective date for two years while it sought to rewrite the regulation."
Click to expand...
SCOTUS time?
 
F

FyreWulff

Member
pass some legislation and maybe people will start caring about the stock market, Don. As itis, we're still running under the Obama economy setup.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
Scott Pruitt makes me ashamed of my state.

I haven't even decided whom to support in the Democratic gubernatorial primary because all three look like losers. The most promising one served as the AG for twelve years, but he couldn't even win the primary eight years ago.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Autodidact said:
Scott Pruitt makes me ashamed of my state.

I haven't even decided whom to support in the Democratic gubernatorial primary because all three look like losers. The most promising one served as the AG for twelve years, but he couldn't even win the primary eight years ago.
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Move away from Oklahoma!
 
K

KingK

Member
Plinko said:
I don't know if I'd go that far for 2018. Trump isn't on the ballot, so he won't be driving racists to the polls. Hillary wont be driving right-wing nuts who hate her to the polls. Could be an entirely different scene.
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DonShula said:
I'm inclined to believe this take. It's an uphill battle but not a done deal yet. Indiana loathed Hillary moreso than it loved Trump (we went for Obama in 08 after all). A lot of disenchanted Trump voters could stay home for the midterms. They went out to vote R for the general but it's a different thing to make the time to go out and vote for whoever challenges Donnelly. It's not the layup it looks like for the GOP and they need to bring a strong candidate.

Source: me listening to people in this state.
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Aaron Strife said:
Donnelly also won a really tough race in a horrible year for Democrats (2010). Sure, that was the House, but it's not like he's just gotten lucky. A lesser candidate still would have blown 2012.

Most vulnerable? Probably. Lean R might even be a fair rating at this juncture (I'd say Tossup). But not impossible.
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Eh, hopefully you guys are right. I'm from Donnelly's home district (2010 was actually the first year I could vote and I helped him keep that seat), and I'm definitely pulling for him. I always appreciated him more than many of the other blue dogs, because he actually fell in line on Obamacare without a fuss, knowing the consequences.

My own anecdotal experience is that the area has radicalized to the right over Obama's presidency, and that Donald Trump was extremely successful in strongly appealing to a lot republicans and independents/non-voters. Maybe not having Trump on the ballot will be enough to save Donnelly. I just feel like the state has been drifting right, and Trump activated enough people to accelerate that and push it beyond reach.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
KingK said:
Eh, hopefully you guys are right. I'm from Donnelly's home district (2010 was actually the first year I could vote and I helped him keep that seat), and I'm definitely pulling for him. I always appreciated him more than many of the other blue dogs, because he actually fell in line on Obamacare without a fuss, knowing the consequences.

My own anecdotal experience is that the area has radicalized to the right over Obama's presidency, and that Donald Trump was extremely successful in strongly appealing to a lot republicans and independents/non-voters. Maybe not having Trump on the ballot will be enough to save Donnelly. I just feel like the state has been drifting right, and Trump activated enough people to accelerate that and push it beyond reach.
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Keep in mind that Trump is also losing popularity pretty much everywhere.

Anger at Trump turning voters against the GOP, no Trump on the ballot to energize his base, Donnelly has a shot.
 
E

Eusis

Member
Ac30 said:
The Republicans broke all precedent in 2016, so if the Dems win in 2018, fuck it, keep the seat open. Make up some "one justice per term!" rule.
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Hell, they could probably safely go "as a historically unpopular president it isn't right for him to decide on any further judges for the USA." At least if he keeps at this level or goes yet lower. And it really wouldn't be, why the fuck should America be haunted by the justice picks of a president who not only got in via luck of the electoral college, but largely did NOT have the backing of the people? Even W Bush had that much.
 
K

kirblar

Member
This article is godlike and worth your time: Primary Colors: On Democratic Presidential Politics, Neoliberalism, and the White Working Class

Will post over in OT in a bit as well.
The Left's story of the split between the white working class and the Party goes something like this. The white working class has, over the past several decades, seen a devastating decline in stable, well-paying industrial work. The Republican and Democratic parties have both proven unwilling to address their plight in part because both have been captured by neoliberalism—the valorization of free market principles and supply-side logic across all areas of public policy—with the GOP naturally falling a bit harder for it than the once progressive Democratic Party. Both parties have cooperated in making matters worse by hacking away at the social safety net and further empowering multinational corporations and the wealthy through deregulation, passing tax cuts, pursuing free trade and undermining unions—all policy aims that have effectively redistributed wealth upwards and significantly deepened economic inequality. What's more, Democratic liberals have spent years responding to the racist and bigoted attitudes of many white working class voters by calling them racist and bigoted, which has alienated them.

The white working class, dismayed, has responded to all this, and the lack of a truly pro-worker party, by either dropping out of the voting pool entirely or voting for Republicans who unlike the Democrats, are, refreshingly, nicer to them than they are to African-Americans, Hispanics, women, and LGBT people. Right-wing populist appeals, it is argued, have been the only truly populist appeals for decades. Consequently, white working class voters have swung right, in the direction of the only politicians that seem to acknowledge their pain—politicians who have, in fact, been deepening it even more than the liberal politicians who have ceased paying attention. The white working class, in short, has responded to the horrors neoliberalism has inflicted upon them by doing either nothing at all or voting for the more neoliberal party.

None of this, the Left says, was inevitable. Liberals have erred, they argue, in casting all working class whites as politically and perhaps morally irredeemable for the undeniable bigotry and xenophobia of some. And in pushing a narrative of the white working class' exodus that centers their historical resistance to civil rights and identity politics, they say, liberals have ignored the class dynamics that have been the real driving forces behind their disillusionment—dynamics exacerbated by the Democratic Party's decision to face right and commit itself deeply to neoliberal economics, as exemplified by the ascendancy of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council (DLC). It was their move to the center, coupled with their disdain for white workers they see as marked by a kind of original sin that finally pushed those voters away and continues to do so. Blue collar whites have abandoned the Democratic Party simply because the Democratic Party abandoned progressive policies that spoke to the needs of workers and came to loathe the working class itself.

***

It's a story both simple and substantially untrue. In fact, the decline in white working class support for the Democratic Party at the presidential level began well before the party's retreat from progressivism and pro-worker politics. Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University, and Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress who presciently identified the disenfranchised white working class as a force to be reckoned with nearly 20 years ago in America's Forgotten Majority: Why the White Working Class Still Matters, laid out the timeline of their departure from the Democratic Party's coalition in a 2008 Brookings working paper called ”The Decline of the White Working Class and the Rise of a Mass Upper Middle Class". According to Teixeira and Abramowitz, the Democratic vote among whites without college degrees fell from an average of 55 percent in the 1960 and 1964 elections to 35 in the 1968 and 1972 elections—a decline of 20 points in just over a decade. What happened during the 1960s? Had the Party moved substantially to the center? Had the Party become less committed to progressive social programs that would help struggling whites? To the contrary—the 1960s and two Democratic administrations brought the creation of Medicare and Medicaid, the expansion of Social Security benefits, the revival of food stamps, minimum wage increases, the launch of the Head Start early childhood education program for lower-income children, increased federal funding for public education, the creation of the Job Corps youth employment program and other vocational education programs, and a dizzying array of other government initiatives that constituted the most expansive array of progressive successes since the New Deal. None of it mattered.

Perhaps, as the labor researcher Penny Lewis has suggested, the white working class was more perturbed by the Vietnam War than popular accounts of the antiwar movement—which commonly frame blue-collar workers as having been hawks pitted against young, relatively well-to-do college students—have portrayed. But most of the drop in support, as nearly every historian surveying the period has agreed, can be attributed to the Party's full embrace of not only civil rights, but also social liberalism more broadly. The Party emerged from the 1960s championing both economic and social justice and believed it could continue to do so without losing the downscale white voters it had relied on for years. As the election of 1968 made clear, it could not. Those voters fled to Richard Nixon and the segregationist former governor of Alabama George Wallace, who together won 64 percent of the white working class.

Those voters never really looked back. The theory that they would have had the Party offered up truly economically progressive candidates has to contend with the failed candidacies of George McGovern in 1972, whom Nixon trounced with 70 percent of the white working class vote and the staunchly pro-labor and union-backed Walter Mondale, whom neoliberal archdaemon Ronald Reagan trounced with 65 percent of their vote in 1984. Since 1968, two Democratic presidential candidates have done well with the white working class: Jimmy Carter, who dramatically outperformed George McGovern in the demographic by running as a conservative Democrat against Ford in 1976, and the DLC-anointed bubba neoliberal Bill Clinton. Ross Perot's insurgent populism and his warning that NAFTA would produce a ”giant sucking sound" as blue-collar jobs were lost to Mexico failed, ultimately, to prevent the man who backed and signed NAFTA from winning narrow pluralities of the white working class vote in 1992 and 1996.

This is not a voting record that inspires confidence that the white working class has been itching, deep down, to cast votes against neoliberal economics upon hearing the right progressive pitch. But looking at general election results offers only an incomplete picture of the white working class' exit from the Democratic fold. They largely tell a now-familiar story about Democratic collapse among blue-collar and other whites in the south that masks the gradual erosion of white working class support in northern states where Trump won. It's the Democratic primaries in the wake of the New Deal coalition's final rupture in 1968 that provide the clearest picture of how even the portion of the white working class presumably most sympathetic to left-of-center politics—northern blue-collar whites—has moved rightward.
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Some comments from the author on twitter-
@OsitaNwanevu

What I realize over and over again reading 20th century history is that both a lot and very little have changed
DDz-AB4XUAALxUM.jpg
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@OsitaNwanevu

lol
DDz-xxYWAAAi8A_.jpg
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The most important takeaway:
DD1TQ8EUQAALu07.jpg
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A

Autodidact

Banned
What a nice young man to spend time with his peepaw!

His health may not even endure for one term.

And who is that boy? Some administration person's kid? I thought the Secret Service normally balked at letting members of the general public get that close.
 
C

Chained Prometheus

Member
BoogieWoogie said:
From today, THREE SCOOPS (Christ he looks terrible):

DD2hUAmXsAYd8eq.jpg
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Yikes.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I think it's just as likely that Trump randomly keels over from a heart attack brought on by his poor health and inability to function in a constant high-stress environment as it is that he gets impeached or resigns from sheer frustration.
 
C

Chumley

Banned
Chained Prometheus said:
Yikes.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I think it's just as likely that Trump randomly keels over from a heart attack brought on by his poor health and inability to function in a constant high-stress environment as it is that he gets impeached or resigns from sheer frustration.
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Yep. I've always thought all this shit ends with him just croaking in his sleep, and then calls for the investigation to end out of courtesy for the dead or whatever.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
Chumley said:
Yep. I've always thought all this shit ends with him just croaking in his sleep, and then calls for the investigation to end out of courtesy for the dead or whatever.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't Republicans just secretly fucking love that?

I want this country to learn a lesson from this ordeal. If he dies, the chances of our learning that lesson drop from 1 in 100 to zero. We'll be told "not to speak ill of the dead" as his supporters and the GOP talk about "what could've been if he'd just had the opportunity." They would exploit his death to save themselves so fucking fast, and we'd make not one inch of progress.
 
P

Poor GRIMES

Banned
BoogieWoogie said:
If Trump died, Mueller would continue investigating everything around Trump anyway. His empire would be in crumbles that much faster.
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Yeah, even if he leaves Trump alone after death he would still go after Page, Manafort, Flynn, Kushner, etc; and Trump will look guilty by association. The Republicans have no way to run from this.
 
C

Chained Prometheus

Member
Chumley said:
Yep. I've always thought all this shit ends with him just croaking in his sleep, and then calls for the investigation to end out of courtesy for the dead or whatever.
Click to expand...

Autodidact said:
Wouldn't Republicans just secretly fucking love that?

I want this country to learn a lesson from this ordeal. If he dies, the chances of our learning that lesson drop from 1 in 100 to zero. We'll be told "not to speak ill of the dead" as his supporters and the GOP talk about "what could've been if he'd just had the opportunity." They would exploit his death to save themselves so fucking fast, and we'd make not one inch of progress.
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Oh I'm sure the GOP will try to shut it all down if Trump keels over before the investigation is over, but the whole investigation extends beyond Trump himself. So even if Trump dies before they can catch him, I bet Mueller and the IC will still be out to get the rest of his gang.

BoogieWoogie said:
If Trump died, Mueller would continue investigating everything around Trump anyway. His empire would be in crumbles that much faster.
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Poor GRIMES said:
Yeah, even if he leaves Trump alone after death he would still go after Page, Manafort, Flynn, Kushner, etc; and Trump will look guilty by association. The Republicans have no way to run from this.
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Yup.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
I think you're wrong. When Trump is gone, he will be seen as an unique anomaly that hijacked the Republican party. They will not be responsible for him.
 
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