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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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Apparently the bill McConnell sent back to CBO still has most of the tax cuts for the wealthy. Good luck with that.

So it's almost the same bill but with junkier insurance on the exchanges?

I don't think it'll make the difference that they're hoping for.
 

KingK

Member
Donnelly is dead in the water though, no way do we hold Indiana. This state is like the epitome of Trump country.
 

dramatis

Member
Yeah this is bigger news for election junkies like me, whyamihere, NeoXChaos etc but Ann Wagner was the GOP's top recruit in Missouri and she just backed out of the race.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/t...nt-challenge-claire-mccaskill/article/2627674

GOP recruitment has been horrible this cycle, and a big part of that is Trump. There was an article recently about McConnell's frustrations, but Trump poached their best candidate in Montana (Ryan Zinke) for Secretary of the Interior and he didn't even consider the gambit of giving Manchin or Heitkamp cabinet positions (which would have almost certainly flipped their seats). On top of that, taking ads out against Heller and encouraging primary challengers against Flake is only going to make their math harder.

Now McCaskill will probably face some tea party idiot like Akin, Baldwin still doesn't have a challenger, Nelson and Brown have wildly unpopular challengers (Rick Scott and Josh Mandel), Casey and Stabenow are probably safe and Kaine and Klobuchar could be in the Senate for another hundred years if they wanted. The only vulnerable (or potentially vulnerable) D senator who hasn't caught a lucky break yet is Donnelly.

Donnelly is dead in the water though, no way do we hold Indiana. This state is like the epitome of Trump country.
Yeah I would say he's easily the most vulnerable. But incumbents from the minority party have an amazing track record of being re-elected, even in hostile states. Gregg nearly won last year so he just needs to do a little bit better.
 
What do they expect? Anyone with a brain can tell Trump and his administration are incompetent, least of all the Russians. Surely they know his admin is just not capable to doing things like that.

I feel like if trump announces the hand over to russia, someone in the IC should accidently leave the gas on and watch those compounds go up
 
Missouri and Indiana are both R+20.
I'm encouraged by the fact that they both had close elections last year, although discouraged by the fact that we ended up on the losing side of all of them. I feel a lot better about North Dakota and West Virginia even though those states are much further right, but their incumbents seem to be stronger.
 

Blader

Member
1st was a wave, 2nd was incumbency/lucky opponent breaks courtesy of Murdoch and Akin in IN and MO, Heitkamp in ND. Democrats lost Bill Nelson(NE) seat to now Senator Deb Fisher though.

Yeah, but wouldn't winning the House next year also constitute a wave?
 
Yeah, but wouldn't winning the House next year also constitute a wave?
Right, but the Senate map is more static.

We're defending 25 seats - even if we win all of them, that just means we hold the line. Winning a wave election in the Senate just makes the next cycle harder because there are now less opportunities. There are only 8 GOP-held seats and with the exception of Nevada (and maybe Arizona) all of them are in pretty red territory.

The other six are Texas, Tennessee, Nebraska, Mississippi, Utah and Wyoming. Of those, Texas is the only one I could see flipping and even that has to be a very remote chance as things stand. Winning those three seats means we have to surpass our wins in 2006 and 2012, which were already Dem waves (at least in the Senate, 06 was a House wave but 12 wasn't).
 

sphagnum

Banned
spaghnum, are tankies growing in numbers? My best friend is a former Commie (approx. 10-12 years ago) and claims he only ever met one sincere tankie, on some message board, but the @tankietakes Twitter account and ShitTankiesSay reddit sure makes the sentiment seem a little more common nowadays.

I wouldn't say so, the primary growth has been in DSA types. But tankies have been around for decades and are some of the loudest because they're convinced that everyone else is a revisionist.

There's also a lot of people who go through a tankie phase before understanding that Marx as interpreted by the USSR is not holy writ.
 
Bannon pushing tax hike on wealthy? Wat?

Only so the increased tax revenue can help white people. The neo-Nazi has principles, repugnant and racist though they may be.

Trump pushing for higher taxes on the wealthy, an idea anathema to Republicans, might break the camel's back.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I wouldn't say so, the primary growth has been in DSA types. But tankies have been around for decades and are some of the loudest because they're convinced that everyone else is a revisionist.

There's also a lot of people who go through a tankie phase before understanding that Marx as interpreted by the USSR is not holy writ.

I've noticed this. For most there seems to be a light bulb moment, no idea what causes it though as everyone who goes through this phase seems to want to pretend it never happened.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Donnelly is dead in the water though, no way do we hold Indiana. This state is like the epitome of Trump country.

I don't know if I'd go that far for 2018. Trump isn't on the ballot, so he won't be driving racists to the polls. Hillary wont be driving right-wing nuts who hate her to the polls. Could be an entirely different scene.
 
I wouldn't say so, the primary growth has been in DSA types. But tankies have been around for decades and are some of the loudest because they're convinced that everyone else is a revisionist.

There's also a lot of people who go through a tankie phase before understanding that Marx as interpreted by the USSR is not holy writ.

The meme I often see is "sounds tankie, but okay." It's pretty much a joke to most people, but there are some that definitely take it a bit too seriously for my tastes.
 

AndyD

aka andydumi
What do they expect? Anyone with a brain can tell Trump and his administration are incompetent, least of all the Russians. Surely they know his admin is just not capable to doing things like that.

It's a subtle hint that he should give them back. Remember he tasked his people with finding "deliverables". And this is Russia's subtle but overt way of saying that's one of the things they want.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
I've noticed this. For most there seems to be a light bulb moment, no idea what causes it though as everyone who goes through this phase seems to want to pretend it never happened.

actually reading Marx usually does the trick
 
What do they expect? Anyone with a brain can tell Trump and his administration are incompetent, least of all the Russians. Surely they know his admin is just not capable to doing things like that.

I wonder if the Russians knew this would be the result and just now noticing the problem.
 

DonShula

Member
I don't know if I'd go that far for 2018. Trump isn't on the ballot, so he won't be driving racists to the polls. Hillary wont be driving right-wing nuts who hate her to the polls. Could be an entirely different scene.

I'm inclined to believe this take. It's an uphill battle but not a done deal yet. Indiana loathed Hillary moreso than it loved Trump (we went for Obama in 08 after all). A lot of disenchanted Trump voters could stay home for the midterms. They went out to vote R for the general but it's a different thing to make the time to go out and vote for whoever challenges Donnelly. It's not the layup it looks like for the GOP and they need to bring a strong candidate.

Source: me listening to people in this state.
 
Yeah this is bigger news for election junkies like me, whyamihere, NeoXChaos etc but Ann Wagner was the GOP's top recruit in Missouri and she just backed out of the race.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/t...nt-challenge-claire-mccaskill/article/2627674

GOP recruitment has been horrible this cycle, and a big part of that is Trump. There was an article recently about McConnell's frustrations, but Trump poached their best candidate in Montana (Ryan Zinke) for Secretary of the Interior and he didn't even consider the gambit of giving Manchin or Heitkamp cabinet positions (which would have almost certainly flipped their seats). On top of that, taking ads out against Heller and encouraging primary challengers against Flake is only going to make their math harder.

Now McCaskill will probably face some tea party idiot like Akin, Baldwin still doesn't have a challenger, Nelson and Brown have wildly unpopular challengers (Rick Scott and Josh Mandel), Casey and Stabenow are probably safe and Kaine and Klobuchar could be in the Senate for another hundred years if they wanted. The only vulnerable (or potentially vulnerable) D senator who hasn't caught a lucky break yet is Donnelly.


Yeah I would say he's easily the most vulnerable. But incumbents from the minority party have an amazing track record of being re-elected, even in hostile states. Gregg nearly won last year so he just needs to do a little bit better.

Wow. I thought Wagner had her eyes on that seat since she first won in 2012. Maybe that Nascar driver has her shook.
 
I'm inclined to believe this take. It's an uphill battle but not a done deal yet. Indiana loathed Hillary moreso than it loved Trump. A lot of disenchanted Trump voters could stay home for the midterms. They went out to vote R for the general but it's a different thing to make the time to go out and vote for whoever challenges Donnelly. It's not the layup it looks like for the GOP and they need to bring a strong candidate.

Source: me listening to people in this state.
Donnelly also won a really tough race in a horrible year for Democrats (2010). Sure, that was the House, but it's not like he's just gotten lucky. A lesser candidate still would have blown 2012.

Most vulnerable? Probably. Lean R might even be a fair rating at this juncture (I'd say Tossup). But not impossible.
 
I wouldn't say so, the primary growth has been in DSA types. But tankies have been around for decades and are some of the loudest because they're convinced that everyone else is a revisionist.

There's also a lot of people who go through a tankie phase before understanding that Marx as interpreted by the USSR is not holy writ.

I get that "Everything is evil, burn it all down" is attractive to angsty teens and college kids, but I do have a theory that a combination of temporal distance from most of the worst of the Stalinist/Maoist atrocities and the echo chambery nature of the internet that allows people to claim "Holodomor doesn't real" and genuinely believe such may make fewer people progress out of that stage.
 
Is this repeal only bullshit gonna pass?
I doubt it, but I wouldn't put it past them.

Passing a repeal-only bill is probably the worst thing they could do. It needlessly jeopardizes the healthcare system, and if they don't come up with a new plan in a year we just revert back to ACA and it becomes abundantly clear (clearer than now) that the GOP has absolutely no fucking ideas. This would also kick the can to right before the midterm elections.
 
I don't know if I'd go that far for 2018. Trump isn't on the ballot, so he won't be driving racists to the polls. Hillary wont be driving right-wing nuts who hate her to the polls. Could be an entirely different scene.

Nate Silver said that without Trump and Hillary, the map could look more 2012 than 2016, at least in the Midwest, meaning that we can compete in IN/MI/WI/PA et. al. He basically hypothesized that the Obama/Trump voters might come home and be willing to vote D for Congressional elections.

How the Sun Belt unfolds, I know not. With a more "normal" map, do they revert to their 2012 status, too? Some states - AZ, GA, even TX - have been creeping leftward for years, and I have a difficult time imagining them reversing course in the age of Trump. Ditto other prosperous, educated areas such as Orange County. Surely some of those voters had a wake-up call last year and won't vote Republican again, even without Trump on the ballot.

Then again, we've noted how Republicans seem able to separate Trump from down ballot candidates - hence his winning GA-6 by 1.5 but Price winning by 23. As of now, they can still say, "He doesn't represent us" and pull the lever for their Republican representative. I guess we should (1) campaign strenuously in the Midwest, (2) see if we can at least preserve the gains we've made in the Sun Belt, and (3) do our damndest to link Trump to the party at large and sway some of those Clinton/Republican rep. voters.

Thankfully, we've won some of the districts in that region before (AZ-02, TX-23), and some of those incumbents seem toast because of local forces (e.g., Darrell Issa). I try to remain cautiously optimistic.
 
I doubt it, but I wouldn't put it past them.

Passing a repeal-only bill is probably the worst thing they could do. It needlessly jeopardizes the healthcare system, and if they don't come up with a new plan in a year we just revert back to ACA and it becomes abundantly clear (clearer than now) that the GOP has absolutely no fucking ideas. This would also kick the can to right before the midterm elections.
I believe the analysts who say it would risk putting us into a recession, too. That is a ton of uncertainty and chaos for a sector that's 1/6th of the economy to absorb.
 
Nate Silver said that without Trump and Hillary, the map could look more 2012 than 2016, at least in the Midwest, meaning that we can compete in IN/MI/WI/PA et. al. He basically hypothesized that the Obama/Trump voters might come home and be willing to vote D for Congressional elections.

How the Sun Belt unfolds, I know not. With a more "normal" map, do they revert to their 2012 status, too? Some states - AZ, GA, even TX - have been creeping leftward for years, and I have a difficult time imagining them reversing course in the age of Trump. Ditto other prosperous, educated areas such as Orange County. Surely some of those voters had a wake-up call last year and won't vote Republican again, even without Trump on the ballot.

Then again, we've noted how Republicans seem able to separate Trump from down ballot candidates - hence his winning GA-6 by 1.5 but Price winning by 23. As of now, they can still say, "He doesn't represent us" and pull the lever for their Republican representative. I guess we should (1) campaign strenuously in the Midwest, (2) see if we can at least preserve the gains we've made in the Sun Belt, and (3) do our damndest to link Trump to the party at large and sway some of those Clinton/Republican rep. voters.

Thankfully, we've won some of the districts in that region before (AZ-02, TX-23), and some of those incumbents seem toast because of local forces (e.g., Darrell Issa). I try to remain cautiously optimistic.
I could see Democrats picking up about 30 seats next year. This would be a combination of districts that Hillary improved on over Obama (AZ-2, CA-49, TX-23 like you mentioned but also districts like FL-27 and VA-10) but also the more traditional Midwestern swing districts where Obama won but Hillary lost (IA-1, ME-2, MN-2, NE-2... lot of 2s).

I think cracking the code will involve us dislodging incumbents like Erik Paulsen or Dave Reichert who sit in increasingly Dem districts but get to coast on personal popularity and perceived centrism. Ilena Ros-Lehtinen was like this. We either wait for them to retire or manage to get them in a wave (like Jim Leach in Iowa, 2006).
 
Apparently the bill McConnell sent back to CBO still has most of the tax cuts for the wealthy. Good luck with that.

So one of the biggest complaints from people who were voting no was "this just looks like a tax cut for the rich on the back of a crushing medicaid gutting" and then McConnell goes and does this

Why am I not surprised? He probably thinks he's got this covered and his idea is the best and is just ignoring everything everyone is saying.
 
So one of the biggest complaints from people who were voting no was "this just looks like a tax cut for the rich on the back of a crushing medicaid gutting" and then McConnell goes and does this

Why am I not surprised? He probably thinks he's got this covered and his idea is the best and is just ignoring everything everyone is saying.

"You need to come out of your shell, Mitch."
 
I believe the analysts who say it would risk putting us into a recession, too. That is a ton of uncertainty and chaos for a sector that's 1/6th of the economy to absorb.

Yeah repeal would suck money out of the economy. The ACA transfers money from people who aren't spending it (the rich) to people who will spend it right away (everyone else). Jobs would be lost and hospitals in rural/poor would shut down if it's repealed.
 
So one of the biggest complaints from people who were voting no was "this just looks like a tax cut for the rich on the back of a crushing medicaid gutting" and then McConnell goes and does this

Why am I not surprised? He probably thinks he's got this covered and his idea is the best and is just ignoring everything everyone is saying.
But he's a genius! It's not like he got his reputation as a master tactician by just saying No to everything for the last ten years.

Every time the media builds up these intellectuals in the GOP they always get exposed. Yes, Karl Rove was a brilliant tactician for barely scraping out a win for an incumbent wartime president that could have flopped had they lost Ohio. Fast forward eight years when he had a meltdown on Fox News over an early call. Wunderkind Paul Ryan will never get his fantasy budget passed because the minute he was put into a position of leadership it became clear how vapid and feckless he is. To say nothing of Trump's secret 11-dimensional political jiujitsu that never actually pays off.
 
I mean, we KNOW he's ignoring everyone else because Paul, Heller, Collins, Portman, Johnson, Cruz, and the other 51 Republican senators have been telling us he's just ignoring them. Not answering Rand's calls, ignoring Portman entirely, not including Johnson or Collins in the crafting of the bill (despite both wanting a part), all have been stories from the last few weeks

McConnell the master strategist
 
But he's a genius! It's not like he got his reputation as a master tactician by just saying No to everything for the last ten years.

Every time the media builds up these intellectuals in the GOP they always get exposed. Yes, Karl Rove was a brilliant tactician for barely scraping out a win for an incumbent wartime president that could have flopped had they lost Ohio. Fast forward eight years when he had a meltdown on Fox News over an early call. Wunderkind Paul Ryan will never get his fantasy budget passed because the minute he was put into a position of leadership it became clear how vapid and feckless he is. To say nothing of Trump's secret 11-dimensional political jiujitsu that never actually pays off.
I think this is exaggerating. The bill that Paul wanted passed the house.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Yeah, but wouldn't winning the House next year also constitute a wave?

yes but in terms of the Senate Class 1 seats:

Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Indiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

In a generic R vs D race removing incumbency 80% of these with the exception of the swing states would go blue or red leaving not many realistic pickup opportunities.

Give Hillary the presidency, NV and AZ to Berkely and Carmona in 12' and D's would be running straight defense this year with a possible bloodbath double digit Senate R gain.
 
I think this is exaggerating. The bill that Paul wanted passed the house.
With the full knowledge that whatever the Senate came up with would be the final bill.

I mean if we're doing that we should give credit to Pelosi for passing the DREAM Act, cap & trade and a public option. And AHCA was supposed to be a slam dunk whereas cap & trade and ACA certainly were not.
 

teiresias

Member
How active has the health insurance lobby been in influencing the process thus far? Have they been advocating for or against or have they just been silent? If it's them advocating for or staying silent, then I take that as tacit confirmation that Democrats would be well within their rights to not give a damn about the health insurance lobby if they gain power and try to tackle universal coverage in some form. By that I mean, the Dems don't necessarily strike out to find a system that dismantles the private insurance market, but they certainly need not go out of their way to acquiesce to their desires or maximize their profits at the expense of maximizing coverage for US citizens.
 
But he's a genius! It's not like he got his reputation as a master tactician by just saying No to everything for the last ten years.
He never had to pull off a hard vote in life. Since House holds the purse strings, Boehner actually had to work with teaparty toddlers to keep the government open (mostly) and enact budgets. McConnell simply said no to everything and somehow he's this dark arts master of GOP that media is in awe of.
 

Zereta

Member
For someone who wants to destroy the status quo, isn't the best move for Bannon to come out of the WH now, when its going nowhere, and actually just reveal everything?

Its not a sound strategy but seems like Bannon is the kind of guy to pull it off. He has the right kind of political thinking and media apparatus to really fuck this up for the Trump Administration and America.
 

dramatis

Member
Meet one of the negotiators who helped free Otto Warmbier from North Korea

Sarah Wildman
Can you give me an example of where a State Department person, for example, would be more constrained than you are?

Mickey Bergman
I'll give an example of a different North Korea case — Kenneth Bae and two others who were there five years ago. Through conversations, we realized there was a humanitarian crisis in North Korea around children with disabilities, basically: artificial limbs and wheelchairs did not exist. It was something that was important to [the North Koreans].

Gov. Richardson grabbed me after one of the meetings, and said, "Mickey, we're going to help them with their wheelchairs." He says, "I will raise the money for this, but find us a Christian charity organization that we will work with, we will send them over there so they can do the assessment and deliver the chairs."

Two of the three Americans that were held at the time in North Korea were held [because of charges] related to Christianity. Jerry Fowler had left his bible in the nightstand at the hotel. He was an 86-year-old vet that was there in a tour that was completely legal, but that was his “crime.”

We went to OFAC [Office of Foreign Assets Control] [because] you have to be under the constraints of the sanctions — then we worked with a Christian organization to help [bring the chairs].

Sarah Wildman
Which organization?

Mickey Bergman
Joni and Friends. They went over there on an assessment trip with a representative from our center, and then delivered 200-plus [wheel]chairs.

Then we would sit with our [North Korean] contacts and say, "We're happy those children in need will get the assistance, but you know, people are asking, how is it that you're very comfortable getting those contributions from a Christian-based organization, and yet you're holding these people with these accusations?"

Two weeks later, Jerry Fowler was on his way back home. This was under the Obama administration.
Good quick read.
 
He never had to pull off a hard vote in life. Since House holds the purse strings, Boehner actually had to work with teaparty toddlers to keep the government open (mostly) and enact budgets. McConnell simply said no to everything and somehow he's this dark arts master of GOP that media is in awe of.
Democrats also ran the Senate while Boehner was Speaker and had a vested interest in keeping things running. Just about every big budget deal has been negotiated by Pelosi too.
 

sphagnum

Banned
I get that "Everything is evil, burn it all down" is attractive to angsty teens and college kids, but I do have a theory that a combination of temporal distance from most of the worst of the Stalinist/Maoist atrocities and the echo chambery nature of the internet that allows people to claim "Holodomor doesn't real" and genuinely believe such may make fewer people progress out of that stage.

I think that's probably true, but I dont think it's growing out of proportion with the rest of the movement. It's certainly not surging like literal fascists are with the right wing youth. Sanders, Corbyn, Melenchon etc aren't made of that kind of stuff (well, Melenchon a bit more than the others perhaps). Maybe the popular reformist socialists are blunting it. Which, to be fair, gives some credence to the idea that socialism will only be subverted through a bourgeois democratic process.

I certainly went through my tankie phase early on, but then again I've also been a neocon, a libertarian, and an anarchist.

Bannon pushing tax hike on wealthy? Wat?

Fascists aren't fans of capitalism per se, they just don't like communists trying to collectivize property (because they'll give it to outsiders). Capitalism is permissible so long as it benefits the volk. Remember, "a nation is more than just an economy". Civic nationalism! The wealthy have to pay their fair share to defend the white race!

Also Jews.
 
For someone who wants to destroy the status quo, isn't the best move for Bannon to come out of the WH now, when its going nowhere, and actually just reveal everything?

Its not a sound strategy but seems like Bannon is the kind of guy to pull it off. He has the right kind of political thinking and media apparatus to really fuck this up for the Trump Administration and America.

No, because he's been implicated in the Russia scandal. We speculated some time ago that the neo-Nazi wing might actually be innocent of treason, but last week's articles confirm that Bannon has some involvement, too. Regardless of what he believes, he has to stick with the rest of them now.
 
I think that's probably true, but I dont think it's growing out of proportion with the rest of the movement. It's certainly not surging like literal fascists are with the right wing youth. Sanders, Corbyn, Melenchon etc aren't made of that kind of stuff (well, Melenchon a bit more than the others perhaps). Maybe the popular reformist socialists are blunting it. Which, to be fair, gives some credence to the idea that socialism will only be subverted through a bourgeois democratic process.

I certainly went through my tankie phase early on, but then again I've also been a neocon, a libertarian, and an anarchist.



Fascists aren't fans of capitalism per se, they just don't like communists trying to collectivize property (because they'll give it to outsiders). Capitalism is permissible so long as it benefits the volk. Remember, "a nation is more than just an economy". Civic nationalism! The wealthy have to pay their fair share to defend the white race!

Also Jews.

I think the "fascist surge" has been overstated, somewhat - most of those kids will grow up to be bog-standard Republicans, which is certainly not good but a pretty long distance from fascism - but I agree tankies are not particularly worrisome since they don't seem to have any real outwardly-directed political drive, unlike the alt-right and Neoreactionaries.
 
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