The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
A race that's been this specifically publicized throws a wrench into everything IMO. Is this more like a regular state race or a presidential race? Couldn't tell you
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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Carpe Libertatem
Member
Considering that there is no incumbent and presidential approval matters a lot in special & midterm elections, I think both Cook's PVI and the margin Trump won are both relevant metrics.
It's everyone. It's a dumb poll used to push a particular narrative.
SJurgenson
Banned
If you want to set the Democratic party and the people watching up for defeat, please go ahead and pick the metrics that make anything but a win a total loss. Why bother even having a Republican party, if we're just going to do the spin for them?
Winning the seat is not as easy as you want to make it out to be. You do yourself a disservice by pretending it is.
If the seat is as winnable as you want to claim, then why were the Republicans dumb enough to open it by nominating Tom Price?
Hint: Because it's not supposed to be winnable.
But how can anyone believe that?
If all you look at is partisan registration and geography, we'll never win the house (or the senate) ever again. There are more red states than blue states and more bumfuk areas than cities. We have to compete in every reasonable place. An R+8 district is a seat where we CAN be playing. IMO.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
I wish someone would more formally study the correlation that Kirblar had me chart a while back showing that support for Bernie in the primary was inversely correlated with that state's black population. That's not a measure of his popularity among black Americans but possibly a look at how proximity to black Americans correlates with political decisions.
EDIT: I mean I think similar data does exist, I've seen it cited, but something updated for 2016/2017 would be useful
EDIT: I mean I think similar data does exist, I've seen it cited, but something updated for 2016/2017 would be useful
SJurgenson
Banned
I think maybe you're misunderstanding the quoted statement. I think the speaker's intent was not 'Why are we bothering?', but 'It's miraculous we're even this close.'
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Ossoff kind of sucks but hopefully he can be whipped into supporting decent stuff, in which case I won't care how affluent his district is.
All federal races are presidential races now imo
TestOfTide
Banned
Except the "Trump only won it by 1%" fact lines up much more with the actual primary results earlier this year than the R+8 PVI.
I would understand what you are arguing if Handel was actively distancing herself from Trump, but she isn't. She fully embraces him just like how the rest of the GOP have been fully embracing Trump.
How about because the GOP is betting everything on the idea that if they just go ball-deep appeasing Trump's fanbase, it doesn't matter what backlash they receive because the rest will just fall in line? How about because the GOP figures they have a massive majority over the Democrats in the house so it's not a big deal to give up a house seat to them (whereas with a Senate seat they are much more hesitant)?
How about because Democrats aren't the only ones that make arrogant moves that end up being risky/reckless in hindsight?
Yes and no. Trump is a hindrance to the moderate Republican base and energises the Dem base, so the more Handel is associated with Trump, the more it will likely skew results towards Trump's percentage win, rather than the wider GOP percentage.
The whole point of foreseeing a 2018 Dem wave is that Trump becomes a weight on every Republican politician's shoulders, so whilst Ossoff winning/losing does not denote a binary win/lose outcome for the future, we can infer quite a bit from it.
SJurgenson
Banned
You're comparing primary result with a general election. Do primaries have even 50% of the turnout a GE does?
They are not comparable, unless you want to paint an unrealistically easy narrative.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yup. 2018 is a presidential election year where the candidates are Trump and Pelosi.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
tbh I think it's more accurate to say it's an election between Trump vs. Generic Democrat
this is a connection I've never really made before though
TestOfTide
Banned
Except we are talking about a Jungle Primary, which in many ways is just a first round general election.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think the idea (Kos was pushing this) is that whatever scandal that sinks Trump will take down Pence too, and if Pelosi is next in line...
I don't quite think that's how things will shake out, I could see the GOP convicting Trump under the condition that they can keep Pence in the presidency, but who knows.
SJurgenson
Banned
The primary that was 9 weeks ago, with Trump already President and tons of backlash against him?
That primary result shows how far Ossoff came from a R+8 behind to get that close 9 weeks ago. That doesn't mean that the GE is now only a difference of 2%, and we should be ashamed if he doesn't win. It's still a R+8 election. The majority of any 'Trump Effect' was already in place 9 weeks ago, you cannot double-count it to claim this is an easily winnable GE.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
TestOfTide
Banned
When did I call it "easily winnable". Point out the post where I said this election should be "easily winnable". No where did I say that Ossof needs to win easily win this race.
What I said is that we need to win this election, even if by a small margin. We need the win so that the Democrats can actually start scaring the GOP when they go really wide in race investment and to show that the suburbs are a viable way to counter the Southern Strategy going national.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Failed to realize that Pence invoked the "No Backsies" clause.
Autodidact
Banned
I think I'll just ignore all media on Tuesday and check the results at midnight on Wednesday. Election night in November gave me tremors.
aspiegamer
Member
The fact that any Sanders supporters felt persecuted enough in the first place to write that article and comment on a misleading conclusion proves the negative influence has become too toxic for the party. I know "persecuted" is a pretty harsh word but I can't think up a better term for it. Endless, infinite rancor. The left wing equivalent of evangelicals (except those do always reliably vote for their party).
I could very well see a situation is three election cycles from now where Democrats have Georgia, Texas, North Carolina and Arizona but lose Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin. Hell, Iowa may be lost already.
Basileus777
Member
I really hope this is sarcasm. The absurdity of this is just too much otherwise.
How is it any more absurd than the piece in question?
Basileus777
Member
It's just a questionable article about a poll. Having that crazy conclusion as a result of it is comical (or rather it's just someone choosing a bad excuse to vent about a long held opinion).
SJurgenson
Banned
Fair enough.
I've refuted the idea the Democrats 'need' to win this election previously, so I won't repeat that here - too much.
Ossoff losing by 2 votes is not a monumental difference as it relates to future elections. The GOP will be scared by just looking at how close he got.
The big difference will be in messaging. It a lot easier to say 'Democrats won this seat!' without going into details, than saying 'While the Democrats lost, they did close the gap on a R+8 seat to nearly win it, which if you extrapolate to the future, means...'
The messaging is certainly easier if he wins vs barely loses, but the underlying demographics and math are not that different. My point is, stop with this 'needs to win' garbage.
Do Democrats 'need' him to win? No. Would be be amazing if he did? Yes.
We/Democrats really need to work on not setting ourselves up for failure like this. If the Republicans lost a D+8 race under Obama by a couple of percentage points, they wouldn't be tearing into each other and proclaiming the end times like people here are setting up to do -- they would be riling up their base with congratulatory message, and proclaiming that their power will only get stronger.
You wonder why the Republicans are in power? Could it have something to do with being focused and diligent when the under-dog, and not self-destructing because some electoral metric moved only by 7 points and not 8 like they wanted?
If Trump had lost, you'd have Republican leaning messages boards going 'Damn. That was close, but it means good things for the future. We should work harder!'.
If Ossoff loses, people here will proclaim this is the start of 10,000 years of Republican control over the Galactic Federation.
Third Strike
Member
I think at the very least Pennsylvania will become the new Ohio and will stay competitive for the time being. The Philly metro is actually growing, while the rural areas are declining/stagnant.
nature boy
Member
SJurgenson
Banned
The poll has a MoE of ±4.0%, with 2000 respondents.
It'll be close, that's for sure.
They also forget the part where Presidential powers of pardon don't extend to impeachment. Trump's impeached, he's done. GOP couldn't bring him back from that without amending the constitution in Trump's favor.
Edit: Pennsylvania's different than other Upper Midwest states because Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have a certain vibrancy to them, unlike Detroit and Cleveland which are in decline.
Its gonna be a nail biter
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
That race will be 1-3 points by the end.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Maybe they think he'd resign before being impeached like Nixon, but then he's president again and they still would very much have the right to impeach him, hell even as an ex-president.
Doesn't it just say everything about Trump's fan base that they're like "Oh yeah, well Pence can just pardon him and he'll be president again!" They've already conceded he's committed impeachable offenses, now they're moving onto impeachment not mattering.
Another snag in their brilliant plan: the Vice President is nominated by the President and appointed by the Senate. Good luck getting the chamber that just threw the President out on his ass to reappoint the President.
CSP is the Center for Security Policy (pretty sure? It's the only result that comes up on Google), a right-wing think tank, and the top Google result for them is a poll being used by a dubious site called "thereligionofpeace.org" to claim that American Muslims have been radicalized.
TestOfTide
Banned
I swear to god if that fake ass "threat" ends up causing Handel to win I'm gonna be so pissed off.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
What is this now?
aspiegamer
Member
Sorry, yes. I can't lie and say I don't think there's some persecution complex from a small minority of persons, but the actual situation isn't anywhere near that ridiculous, no. Re-litigating the 2016 primaries is also extremely exhausting from all sides.
I hear you, but Pittsburgh and Philly (and eastern PA) could not deliver last year.
Even though I got called out for "Diablosing" I said many times there is no way Hillary loses PA, win or lose the GE...
In the end it was not enough. If all of those counties with voters out in the middle of nowhere stay at closer to 80/20 instead of 60/40 then I do not think the Democratic strongholds in this state will be enough to counter it. It sucks. Dems need to try winning elsewhere in the sun belt etc. I hope Wolf can hold on for another term.
Re: Ossoff. While the "not a binary outcome" crowd is correct, I also think that analysis is overlooking much of what makes this race important.
I do think it's true that the Democrats don't need GA-6 to win in 2018, and a close race still portends a 2018 wave. I also think it's true that losing this race would be a pretty big blow for the resistance. Basically, GA-6 is the last and best chance to throw a giant monkey wrench into the AHCA, and generally induce a wave of retirements / GOP reps running around like their heads were just cut off. That effect genuinely is binary. There's not going to be a better opportunity until the Gov races in November, and even those won't provide the same out-of-the-weight-class implications as Ossoff winning would.
If Ossoff wins, we get a "Republicans in disarray, unpopular president, look out for 2018, why are these guys so unpopular" narrative for a while. The Resistance gets a much needed boost. Trump cries on Twitter, extending the cycle. Legislators start thinking twice about the consequences of mindlessly supporting Trump. None of that really happens, certainly not the same way, if Handel wins by a half percent. It's a brief "wow Democrats fighting but couldn't seal the deal" story and then by in large back to lala land.
Which sucks, because this race really is important, even if only from a moral/narrative perspective.
I do think it's true that the Democrats don't need GA-6 to win in 2018, and a close race still portends a 2018 wave. I also think it's true that losing this race would be a pretty big blow for the resistance. Basically, GA-6 is the last and best chance to throw a giant monkey wrench into the AHCA, and generally induce a wave of retirements / GOP reps running around like their heads were just cut off. That effect genuinely is binary. There's not going to be a better opportunity until the Gov races in November, and even those won't provide the same out-of-the-weight-class implications as Ossoff winning would.
If Ossoff wins, we get a "Republicans in disarray, unpopular president, look out for 2018, why are these guys so unpopular" narrative for a while. The Resistance gets a much needed boost. Trump cries on Twitter, extending the cycle. Legislators start thinking twice about the consequences of mindlessly supporting Trump. None of that really happens, certainly not the same way, if Handel wins by a half percent. It's a brief "wow Democrats fighting but couldn't seal the deal" story and then by in large back to lala land.
Yeah, until I saw this I would have said Ossoff is a slight favorite. It's the only Handel win poll I've seen in a while, but even so. Looking to be a nail biter.
Which sucks, because this race really is important, even if only from a moral/narrative perspective.
Exactly.
I understand the technical reality of Ossoff coming close in what was supposed to be a safe seat for Republicans being a really good thing. But when it comes to grassroots organizing, almost doesn't count.
From a messaging standpoint, if Ossoff wins the Democrats gain a much needed voice. A young, charismatic voice who epitomizes the resistance and is not beholden to Bernie Sanders or his fucking purity tests. Democrats will finally have a winner to prop up as the way forward, instead of this growing crowd of loud losers.
Depends on who ends up being considered top of the ticket in 2018. Wolf on top could screw Wolf and Casey over. Casey on top would see Wolf winning on an anti-Trump boost.
Wolf's done better than Rauner at dealing with a completely hostile legislature, but that just ends up helping sell the narrative that Republicans are the ones who really run Pennsylvania.
Aaron Strife
Banned
The winner will be whoever wanted it more.
Emerson
May contain jokes =>
I've disagreed with the defeatism surrounding the previous special elections, and if Ossoff loses I still won't see that as a death knell for the Democrats in 2018.
Nevertheless, this is the election we have to win. It's winnable, the candidate is solid and the general morale needs a boost.
Nevertheless, this is the election we have to win. It's winnable, the candidate is solid and the general morale needs a boost.
https://twitter.com/superdeluxe/status/876526947047587840
Missed this when he first said it. Happy Father's Day!
Missed this when he first said it. Happy Father's Day!
Yeah, but:
Checkmate libruls.
While I know this is satire, once again, the Constitution:
Article 2 said:
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Who the hell is CSP polling?
Carpe Libertatem
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