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[Y2Kev]

McConnell never really loses so I doubt he'd do something stupid.

 

[BlastProcessing]

McConnell never really loses so I doubt he'd do something stupid.

Everyone loses eventually. The current state of politics is quite different from how things were when McConnell had most of his success.

 

[Kevinroc]

The real question is who does McConnell let vote against this thing? Flake and Heller are both up for reelection in 2018. But I can't imagine some of the 2020 Rs like Collins and Gardner want to run with the AHCA attached to their hips. But is Murkowski going to vote for this just because she isn't up for reelection until 2022?

 

[Zolo]

What's the deadline for reconciliation now?

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

US shoots down Syrian government fighter jet that dropped bombs near coalition-backed forces fighting Isis

If I'm not mistaken that should be the first air to air kill by US forces since the Serbia conflict.

 

[Ogodei]

McConnell wants to force health care vote by July 4th

https://www.axios.com/mcconnell-schedule-health-care-vote-2444017826.html

I don't think he can pull it off unless he forces a vote on the unmodified House bill (which is parliamentarian-approved, barring certain provisions like the Hyde Amendment parts and some parts relating to Native Americans). The CBO delay alone should be enough to sink his hopes at this point. He's got 10 business days if they submit a bill tomorrow.

Edit: Rand Paul seems to be a hard no, so there's only one person they can afford to let flip on this voluntarily.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

The real question is who does McConnell let vote against this thing? Flake and Heller are both up for reelection in 2018. But I can't imagine some of the 2020 Rs like Collins and Gardner want to run with the AHCA attached to their hips. But is Murkowski going to vote for this just because she isn't up for reelection until 2022?

Those up in 2018 are going to be in trouble, whether they vote for or against it. It doesn't really matter, people blame the entire party.

 

[Emerson]

The real question is who does McConnell let vote against this thing? Flake and Heller are both up for reelection in 2018. But I can't imagine some of the 2020 Rs like Collins and Gardner want to run with the AHCA attached to their hips. But is Murkowski going to vote for this just because she isn't up for reelection until 2022?

Murkowski seems like a pretty likely no to me. She's still talking shit about it up to today. Rand Paul almost certainly is as well. So they can't really afford to lose anybody else.

 

[Lucky Forward]

That Chris Wallace interview with Trump's lawyer was something else.

:lol It's amazing when even Fox News is calling out the lawyer for Trump who can't keep his lies straight on whether or not he's being investigated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxAIaFyxzig

So apparently the FBI director has attorney client privilege with the president... Hmmm

Yeah, this was my favorite part:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-lawyer-mixed-messages-russia-mueller-tweets

On “Fox News Sunday,” however, Sekulow appeared to be less clear on his talking points.

“So he’s being investigated for taking the action that the attorney general and deputy attorney general recommended him to take, by the agency who recommended the termination,” Sekulow said.

“You’ve now said that he is being investigated after saying that you didn’t,” Chris Wallace noted.

“No, he’s not being investigated,” Sekulow interjected.

“You just said, sir, you just said that he’s being investigated,” Wallace said.

Sekulow then reversed direction.

“Let me be crystal clear so you completely understand. We have not received, nor are we aware of, any investigation of the President of the United States. Period,” Sekulow said, using similar phrasing for emphasis as he did on “Meet the Press.”

“You just said two times that he’s being investigated,” Wallace said.

 

[Zolo]

Yeah, this was my favorite part:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-lawyer-mixed-messages-russia-mueller-tweets

I wonder if this is supposed to be posturing or trying to establish a narrative, so that if Trump fires Mueller, they can say he wasn't aware he was under investigation.

 

[Ogodei]

Only people as stupid as Trump is will work for Trump, outside of the military at least. This much is clear.

 

[Zolo]

Only people as stupid as Trump is will work for Trump, outside of the military at least. This much is clear.

I guess he hired that one competent lawyer recently?

 

[Aaron Strife]

I don't think he can pull it off unless he forces a vote on the unmodified House bill (which is parliamentarian-approved, barring certain provisions like the Hyde Amendment parts and some parts relating to Native Americans). The CBO delay alone should be enough to sink his hopes at this point. He's got 10 business days if they submit a bill tomorrow.

Edit: Rand Paul seems to be a hard no, so there's only one person they can afford to let flip on this voluntarily.

Murkowski seems like a pretty likely no to me. She's still talking shit about it up to today. Rand Paul almost certainly is as well. So they can't really afford to lose anybody else.

Yeah, I mean never trust a Republican but I don't think they can count on Murkowski. Repealing the Medicaid expansion would destroy Alaska, and Murkowski unlike the shitheads in her caucus from Medicaid states actually seems concerned by that.

I mean what retribution would there even be for her? She lost a primary to a tea party idiot in 2010 and then won a write-in campaign. Who the fuck cares? She's basically invincible.

Assuming that Paul and Murkowski are out, then it all comes down to Collins. Which, god help us all.

 

[Diablos]

I think of Collins and Cassidy as a packaged deal on healthcare, or at least AHCA. Cassidy already rolled over, so...

 

[Autodidact]

We are screwed if we have to pin our hopes on Maine's Moderate Darling.

If it passes, that might quash the rumor of Collins running for governor next year. I have to think she'd have an uphill battle with the bill tied to her name, even with her clout in the state.

 

[GrapeApes]

Yeah, this was my favorite part:

I liked it when dude started holding up a piece of paper. Bro, some prop isn't going to make your arguments valid. No one sitting at home thinking this guy waving a piece of paper must be credible. The paper sure looks legal.

 

[whyamihere]

I don't think McConnell cares if the ACA is repealed ¯_(&#12484_/¯

 

[Aaron Strife]

I don't think McConnell cares if the ACA is repealed ¯_(&#12484_/¯

He probably just wants a vote so the base can't accuse the GOP of not trying. I don't think it'll work, they'll just accuse them of not trying hard enough and want to primary Susan Collins or some shit.

 

[neurosisxeno]

I don't think McConnell cares if the ACA is repealed ¯_(&#12484_/¯

Considering the seats they have gained from railing against it, odds are he wants to keep crippling it as much as possible and using it to campaign.

 

[Mizerman]

I don't think McConnell cares if the ACA is repealed ¯_(&#12484_/¯

Yeah, it sounds like Turtle Power wants this out of his hands...one way or another.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Collins is probably better off than you guys are saying here because no Medicaid expansion in Maine.

If you're letting No votes through it should be Flake and Heller.

 

[sc0la]

What's the deadline for reconciliation now?

Prodecdural rules don't matter anymore. Expect them to be dismantled if they are an impediment to the republican agenda. There is no calendar based window for complacency as long as they hold majorities and the White House.

 

[Zolo]

Prodecdural rules don't matter anymore. Expect them to be dismantled if they are an impediment to the republican agenda. There is no calendar based window for complacency as long as they hold majorities and the White House.

More that I thought they could be used as an excuse for Republicans on why it didn't pass.

Yeah, it sounds like Turtle Power wants this out of his hands...one way or another.

Yep. Nobody was prepared for this. They were expecting 8 years of obstruction.

 

[Autodidact]

He probably just wants a vote so the base can't accuse the GOP of not trying. I don't think it'll work, they'll just accuse them of not trying hard enough and want to primary Susan Collins or some shit.

I would cackle even though she'd probably win a fucking write-in campaign like Murkowski if it came to that.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Collins is probably better off than you guys are saying here because no Medicaid expansion in Maine.

If you're letting No votes through it should be Flake and Heller.

Yeah but I don't think Collins really wants ACA repealed.

I think she and Snowe would have voted for it in 2010 if the party strategy wasn't so explicitly "obstruct everything."

IIRC Obama or Biden said once they had 7 sitting Republican senators tell them in private they supported ACA, but leadership told them not to. I'd have to imagine the Maine Senators were at the top of that list.

God Collins is so fucking useless, but I still hope she does the right thing here.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Collins is probably better off than you guys are saying here because no Medicaid expansion in Maine.

If you're letting No votes through it should be Flake and Heller.

Yeah but I don't think Collins really wants ACA repealed.

I think she and Snowe would have voted for it in 2010 if the party strategy wasn't so explicitly "obstruct everything."

IIRC Obama or Biden said once they had 7 sitting Republican senators tell them in private they supported ACA, but leadership told them not to. I'd have to imagine the Maine Senators were at the top of that list.

God Collins is so fucking useless, but I still hope she does the right thing here.

May not need her as badly. With Paul sticking to the libertarian shtick, the GOP may need either Flake or Heller to vote Yes. This is all after keeping Collins and Murkowski on board.

 

[Aaron Strife]

May not need her as badly. With Paul sticking to the libertarian shtick, the GOP may need either Flake or Heller to vote Yes. This is all after keeping Collins and Murkowski on board.

I know they're more immediately vulnerable, but I'd expect them to vote for it sooner than the other two.

 

[sangreal]

Collins is probably better off than you guys are saying here because no Medicaid expansion in Maine.

If you're letting No votes through it should be Flake and Heller.

Collins problem would be defunding planned parenthood

 

[AntraxSuicide]

I know they're more immediately vulnerable, but I'd expect them to vote for it sooner than the other two.

Typically yeah, but I'm optimistic given their own states.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Typically yeah, but I'm optimistic given their own states.

Thing is, if the GOP is expecting them to lose ANYWAY, they might go ham on trying to get them on board because why not?

 

[Basileus777]

Thing is, if the GOP is expecting them to lose ANYWAY, they might go ham on trying to get them on board because why not?

The GOP isn't expecting to lose any Senate seats in 2018 and the Senators themselves especially aren't thinking that way.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

The GOP isn't expecting to lose any Senate seats in 2018 and the Senators themselves especially aren't thinking that way.

Boy are they in for a surprise

 

[Ogodei]

I don't think Heller's inclined to vote no. Despite being target #1 in 2018, he's fairly conservative himself.

But the electorate in Nevada's gonna be in a fighting mood since they're trying to pass Medicaid for All at the state level and Sandoval (who's up in 2018) vetoed it.

 

[Grexeno]

Speaking of 2020 candidates what happened to Catherine Cortez Masto

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Thing is, if the GOP is expecting them to lose ANYWAY, they might go ham on trying to get them on board because why not?

The GOP isn't expecting to lose any Senate seats in 2018 and the Senators themselves especially aren't thinking that way.

Yeah, I kinda get thinking the House is gone if you're a Republican but they'll want the Senate around to at least keep nominations rolling. If we take that, the government stalls for two years, 100%. That's the calculus that Mitch has in mind anyway. Ryan and Trump may want to do whatever, but Mitch needs his Senate to hold.

 

[Basileus777]

Boy are they in for a surprise

Are they? Even with a wave election the GOP isn't especially vulnerable with the 2018 Senate map. Even the fantasy scenarios people here come up with require things like Texas electing a Democrat to the Senate as the only way for the Democrats to retake the Senate.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Are they? Even with a wave election the GOP isn't especially vulnerable with the 2018 Senate map.

If they repeal the ACA, the senate is absolutely on the table.

Even the fantasy scenarios people here come up with require things like Texas electing a Democrat to the Senate as the only way for the Democrats to retake the Senate.

Ted Cruz isn't really as safe as he'd like to believe. He's vulnerable during a wave.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I don't think Heller's inclined to vote no. Despite being target #1 in 2018, he's fairly conservative himself.

But the electorate in Nevada's gonna be in a fighting mood since they're trying to pass Medicaid for All at the state level and Sandoval (who's up in 2018) vetoed it.

We need Sprinkle to run for governor, he wrote the Medicaid bill. There's your platform.

Are they? Even with a wave election the GOP isn't especially vulnerable with the 2018 Senate map. Even the fantasy scenarios people here come up with require things like Texas electing a Democrat to the Senate as the only way for the Democrats to retake the Senate.

If they repeal the ACA, the senate is absolutely on the table.

Posted a link above but there is no state where ACA polls well. The closest is Oklahoma where it still has a 38/45 spread.

Considering they need *every* GOP Senator to vote for it, they're all on the hook for that shit. Nevada, Arizona and Texas are all in play. Even Nebraska and Tennessee have been competitive or won by Democrats recently.

I think the red state D incumbents would be helped too. Two senators for your state, one voted for AHCA, one didn't. Who would the electorate reward?

 

[Autodidact]

Are they? Even with a wave election the GOP isn't especially vulnerable with the 2018 Senate map.

Right. Heller and Flake may be the most vulnerable, but we've no guarantee of winning the latter's seat. (I pretty much think Heller's toast; recent trends and elections in NV portend a very tough time for him and the Rep. gubernatorial candidate next year.) Cruz, though theoretically vulnerable, will be a long shot. At best we'll have 51-49 after the midterms, so I can see why the Senate would be less panicked than the House.

 

[Basileus777]

If they repeal the ACA, the senate is absolutely on the table.


Ted Cruz isn't really as safe as he'd like to believe.

It's a longshot. And Donnelly may very well lose anyway requiring the Dems to pick up 4 seats for control which is probably impossible.

 

[Ogodei]

If they repeal the ACA, the senate is absolutely on the table.


Ted Cruz isn't really as safe as he'd like to believe. He's vulnerable during a wave.

The fact that literally everyone hates Ted Cruz would come back to him, though overcoming the evangelical bloc would be tricky.

 

[Autodidact]

Who'd be the next most vulnerable after the Heller/Flake/Cruz trifecta? Who's the least long shot of all the long long shots, basically?

Poor phrasing but you get my drift.

EDIT: Never mind, all deep DEEP red states.

 

[Aaron Strife]

It's a longshot. And Donnelly may very well lose anyway requiring the Dems to pick up 4 seats for control which is probably impossible.

I know the trends in Indiana wouldn't necessarily correlate with those in the Sun Belt, but any environment that lets us swing Texas would probably be enough for Donnelly to hang on.

 

[Plinko]

Oh look, republicans are playing dirty again:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/18/politics/kfile-obama-georgia-ad/index.html

(CNN)An outside group that supports President Donald Trump is running a radio ad in Atlanta ahead of Georgia's special election Tuesday that takes the voice of former President Barack Obama out of context to make the argument that Democrats take black voters for granted.

Great America Alliance, a pro-Trump non-profit group that previously ran ads attacking former FBI director James Comey during his testimony, is running an ad that quotes Obama narrating his autobiographical book "Dreams From My Father." The ad, however, does not mention that in the selected passage, Obama is actually quoting someone else who is speaking about the black community and Chicago politics before the early 1980s.
The ad begins with narration from conservative activist Autry Pruitt.

"Hi, my name is Autry Pruitt, a fellow black American working hard every day, just like you. It may seem out of season, but all of a sudden, Democratic politicians have started coming around again. We normally only see them every other November, swarming around and making promises to get our vote. But nothing ever changes for us, does it? Here's what President Barack Obama had to say about it."

Then Obama can be heard saying, "Plantation politics. Black people in the worst jobs. The worst housing. Police brutality rampant. But when the so-called black committeemen came around election time, we'd all line up and vote the straight Democratic ticket. Sell our souls for a Christmas turkey."

Complete scum. I'd love to see what they said if democrats went nuts like this in 2018 and played every deceitful, dirty trick in the book. NOTE--not saying democrats SHOULD. Just wondering what GOP reaction would be if they did.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

It's a longshot. And Donnelly may very well lose anyway requiring the Dems to pick up 4 seats for control which is probably impossible.

If we're taking Ted Cruz's seat, there's no way we'd lose any seats. It would be an historically obscene wave

 

[Basileus777]

Who'd be the next most vulnerable after the Heller/Flake/Cruz trifecta? Who's the least long shot of all the long long shots, basically?

Poor phrasing but you get my drift.

Deb Fisher I guess, but she'll win handily in any scenario. The remaining R seats are in Wyoming, Utah, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Nebraska.

I know the trends in Indiana wouldn't necessarily correlate with those in the Sun Belt, but any environment that lets us swing Texas would probably be enough for Donnelly to hang on.

Perhaps, but it's no guarantee.

If we're taking Ted Cruz's seat, there's no way we'd lose any seats. It would be an historically obscene wave

The 2018 map is already the result of 2 Democratic wave elections. Losing a seat in Indiana is hardly out of the question.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Who'd be the next most vulnerable after the Heller/Flake/Cruz trifecta? Who's the least long shot of all the long long shots, basically?

Next would probably be Nebraska's Deb Fischer, Tennessee's Bob Corker, and Mississippi's Roger Wicker. The first we won in 2006, Tennessee we lost 51-48 thanks to a horribly racist ad the Republicans ran, Mississippi went 55-45 in the special election that elected Wicker in 2008. Then there's Utah and Wyoming which not even in my wildest dreams. Maybe if you got Jim Matheson to run, and if Hatch retired, and even then he'd have like a 5% chance at best. Only good candidate I can think of for Wyoming is Dave Freudenthal, and even he wouldn't have much of a shot.

 

[thefro]

I know the trends in Indiana wouldn't necessarily correlate with those in the Sun Belt, but any environment that lets us swing Texas would probably be enough for Donnelly to hang on.

I don't see a continued trend for Indiana to get more Republican. The state just hated Clinton and Trump had big coattails. Margin's really no different between Trump & Clinton than Bush and Kerry in 2004.

Pretty large bias towards moderates here, which will help Donnelly. I think the environment for him will be better than 2012 since Dems will be more motivated to vote than Republicans.

2012 wasn't a "Dem Wave election" locally. Only person who won statewide was Donnelly & Glenda Ritz.

 

[Chumly]

I'm from Nebraska guys and we have zero democratic candidates for anything right now. There's no way someone half decent is even up for running.

Honestly democrats have better shots at Tennessee and Mississippi. Had brad ashferd not lost his congressional seat to don bacon he might have had a shot

 

[Aaron Strife]

I'm from Nebraska guys and we have zero democratic candidates for anything right now. There's no way someone half decent is even up for running.

Brad Ashford just announced for NE-2. He needs to get his ass in gear on fundraising though.

The interesting thing about Nebraska is that its split EVs is basically the only reason why it draws any national attention. Sure, the Congressional seat is winnable, but being able to pick off an extra EV seems to resonate more with folks even though an extra vote in the House is probably more valuable.