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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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G

Gruco

Banned
whyamihere said:
*whispers*

If Ossoff is up by 1-3, you'd expect a few polls to show that Handel is up as well.
Click to expand...

Agreed, but the data are also consistent with a post-debate boost fading away or something like that. I'm going to be cautious with how high to let the hopes get for another year or two.

NAILBITER
 
K

Kusagari

Member
The main reason Ossoff losing would be so disappointing is because Handel sucks. You would hope we could beat such a mediocre, if that, candidate.
 
B

BoogieWoogie

Banned
I swear, if votes start coming in for the Georgia special election and a polling station starts experiencing "technical difficulties", I'm going to drive to that mother fucker to make sure they're not greasing the votes.

Kusagari said:
The main reason Ossoff losing would be so disappointing is because Handel sucks. You would hope we could beat such a mediocre, if that, candidate.
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At the end of the day, she has an R next to her name, hates gays, and hates poors, which is good enough for most of the Republican base.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Spoiled Milk said:
Who the hell is concerned about Kamala Harris? I'm watching montages of her and she kicks ass. Basically already has my vote, damn.
Click to expand...

"Kicking ass" isn't the same as appealing to voters nationwide. I like her a lot, but it remains to be seen if she has what it takes to be a quality presidential candidate.
 
S

SJurgenson

Banned
gucpQCH.png


This is certainly a new era of civic participation, folks.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Plinko said:
"Kicking ass" isn't the same as appealing to voters nationwide. I like her a lot, but it remains to be seen if she has what it takes to be a quality presidential candidate.
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I'd talk about her being a newly elected Senator from California, but the real problem is that being a black woman is a lot to overcome in American politics. We all just saw what happened to Hillary because of her gender, if we're talking about winning election this is unfortunately still a big hurdle. I don't even like typing this shit, but I don't know how you could look at this country and think otherwise.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Just in case you all missed it earlier today, because I sure did....

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

The new Rasmussen Poll, one of the most accurate in the 2016 Election, just out with a Trump 50% Approval Rating.That's higher than O's #'s!
7:02 AM · Jun 18, 2017
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
whyamihere said:
Manchin up 50/41 over generic R, 57/39 approvals.

https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2017/06/15/west-virginia-senate-poll-joe-manchin/
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For being the worst Democrat in the Senate I've always counted Manchin among the likeliest to hold his seat next year.

Of the red state Democrats I'd rank it thus:

Stabenow (MI)
Casey (PA)
Nelson (FL)
Brown (OH)
Manchin (WV)
Baldwin (WI)
Tester (MT)
Heitkamp (ND)
McCaskill (MO)
Donnelly (IN)

With the caveat that several of these are interchangeable and I view them more as clusters (too 3 being the safest, middle 4 being decent bets for re-election, bottom 3 I'm still fairly concerned about).
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Basileus777 said:
I'd talk about her being a newly elected Senator from California, but the real problem is that being a black woman is a lot to overcome in American politics. We all just saw what happened to Hillary because of her gender, if we're talking about winning election this is unfortunately still a big hurdle. I don't even like typing this shit, but I don't know how you could look at this country and think otherwise.
Click to expand...

I'm sure Hillary's gender played somewhat of a factor in why some of her haters hated her so much, but I wouldn't put among the top 5 reasons Hillary lost to Trump.

I think the bigger factor, and something Kamala has an edge over Hillary in, is just how relentlessly the GOP targeted Hillary for years, particularly the last 4 years when everyone knew she was going to be the 2016 nominee.

The GOP simply does not have enough time to brew a "get 60% of voters to hate Kamala" stew like they had with Hillary and by the time they try to get it going it'll fail just like it did when they tried it on Obama.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
Aaron Strife said:
For being the worst Democrat in the Senate I've always counted Manchin among the likeliest to hold his seat next year.

Of the red state Democrats I'd rank it thus:

Stabenow (MI)
Casey (PA)
Nelson (FL)
Brown (OH)
Manchin (WV)
Baldwin (WI)
Tester (MT)
Heitkamp (ND)
McCaskill (MO)
Donnelly (IN)

With the caveat that several of these are interchangeable and I view them more as clusters (too 3 being the safest, middle 4 being decent bets for re-election, bottom 3 I'm still fairly concerned about).
Click to expand...

That's about where i'd draw the line, though i'd put Manchin below Tester and above Heitkamp, who may just luck herself into another Senate term by having a shit challenger).

Donnelly's probably toast because he really lucked into the job the first time and Indiana's just trending further right with time. McCaskill and Heitkamp could well make it with bad opponents in a strong D year (much as they did in 2012). Everyone above them is not much of a cause for worry.

Which surprises me about Manchin. A few months ago i was of the opinion that he was a dead man walking.

Edit: my math right now is we could lose one, flip three (believe in Cruzing for a Bruising, along with Heller and Flake), for a net gain of two, which wouldn't be enough but would mean that anytime Rand Paul wants to be principled, McConnell fails to pass.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Ogodei said:
That's about where i'd draw the line, though i'd put Manchin below Tester and above Heitkamp, who may just luck herself into another Senate term by having a shit challenger).

Donnelly's probably toast because he really lucked into the job the first time and Indiana's just trending further right with time. McCaskill and Heitkamp could well make it with bad opponents in a strong D year (much as they did in 2012). Everyone above them is not much of a cause for worry.

Which surprises me about Manchin. A few months ago i was of the opinion that he was a dead man walking.

Edit: my math right now is we could lose one, flip three (believe in Cruzing for a Bruising, along with Heller and Flake), for a net gain of two, which wouldn't be enough but would mean that anytime Rand Paul wants to be principled, McConnell fails to pass.
Click to expand...

If Hillary had won It would have in order of likeliest to lose been:

1. Donnelly
2. McCaskill
3. Heitkamp
4. Manchin
5. Tester.
6. Brown
7. Casey
8. Nelson
9. Stabenow
10. Kaine
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Ogodei said:
That's about where i'd draw the line, though i'd put Manchin below Tester and above Heitkamp, who may just luck herself into another Senate term by having a shit challenger).

Donnelly's probably toast because he really lucked into the job the first time and Indiana's just trending further right with time. McCaskill and Heitkamp could well make it with bad opponents in a strong D year (much as they did in 2012). Everyone above them is not much of a cause for worry.

Which surprises me about Manchin. A few months ago i was of the opinion that he was a dead man walking.
Click to expand...
Thing about West Virginia is it'll still elect a Democrat who's hard right on coal and other social issues, it's just that's so far removed from the national platform now that it's easier to just write them off as a red state.

Which they absolutely are, but I think if Manchin were the center of the party rather than being the right of it they'd still be willing to vote Dem in presidential elections rather than being more kneejerk Republican like other red states. Manchin is tailor made for the state's ideology.

I'm just gonna go for broke and say the DSCC should try to hold everything down and win the three you mentioned, Nevada, Arizona and Texas. I'm aware of the Herculean task this would be, but Christ would it suck if we managed to win those three and still were in the minority because Donnelly lost or something.

2020 we should be looking at Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia, Montana, Iowa and Alaska. 2022, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida and Georgia. Indiana and Missouri were on the table last year but I don't think they will be the next time they're up. Add Maine in 2020 and Iowa and Arizona in 2022, should Collins, Grassley and McCain step down.

TestOfTide said:
I'm sure Hillary's gender played somewhat of a factor in why some of her haters hated her so much, but I wouldn't put among the top 5 reasons Hillary lost to Trump.

I think the bigger factor, and something Kamala has an edge over Hillary in, is just how relentlessly the GOP targeted Hillary for years, particularly the last 4 years when everyone knew she was going to be the 2016 nominee.

The GOP simply does not have enough time to brew a "get 60% of voters to hate Kamala" stew like they had with Hillary and by the time they try to get it going it'll fail just like it did when they tried it on Obama.
Click to expand...
Conversely this is the problem Warren would have as a candidate. The GOP has openly bragged about their smear campaign against Warren being a redux of what they did to Hillary. It won't be enough to bring her down in Massachusetts but it's enough to make her a bad bet for the presidency.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Basileus777 said:
I'd talk about her being a newly elected Senator from California, but the real problem is that being a black woman is a lot to overcome in American politics. We all just saw what happened to Hillary because of her gender, if we're talking about winning election this is unfortunately still a big hurdle. I don't even like typing this shit, but I don't know how you could look at this country and think otherwise.
Click to expand...
So we just shouldn't run women or minorities? That's the logical conclusion of what you're arguing. (Which I very much disagree w/)

The potential problems w Harris as a candidate that some of us are seeing w Harris have absolutely nothing to do w her womanhood or ethnicity, or even how she treats her staff. Right now we're all shopping around and feeling out candidates, and part of that process is taking a hard look at someone's weaknesses and making a guess about how they might affect them in the GE.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
That Chris Wallace interview with Trump's lawyer was something else.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
luckily for him he's poised now to be 2020 frontrunner!

I think the plan was to appoint Bobby Scott, at least that's what Perriello said
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I think Scott was meant to be a placeholder for McAuliffe to run, but now that I think about it I remember them saying they wanted Scott to boost black turnout for the special election, so maybe not.
 
M

Mr.Mike

Member
US shoots down Syrian government fighter jet that dropped bombs near coalition-backed forces fighting Isis

American forces have shot down a Syrian government fighter jet accused of attacking Kurdish-led troops fighting Isis.

US Central Command said the SU-22 dropped bombs near the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who are being supported by the US-led coalition as they advance on the terrorist stronghold of Raqqa.

”In accordance with rules of engagement and in collective self-defence of Coalition partnered forces, it was immediately shot down by a US F/A-18E Super Hornet," a statement said.
Click to expand...
 
O

Ogodei

Member
RustyNails said:
What would be the Dem equivalent of GA-6th?
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Probably PA-17, which is basically the one blue collar district in PA that Dems still hold.

Although i'm not sure a Dem President would recruit from remotely vulnerable districts. Like a Montana special election is one thing, but on the Dem side you'd see something more like the recent special election for CA-34 which was Dem v Dem because it's East LA or something.
 
K

Kevinroc

Member
McConnell wants to force health care vote by July 4th

https://www.axios.com/mcconnell-schedule-health-care-vote-2444017826.html

Sources close to Mitch McConnell tell me the Majority Leader is dead serious about forcing a Senate vote on the Obamacare repeal-and-replace bill before the July 4 holiday.

Some senators want to delay the vote but McConnell views that as delaying the inevitable. There are no mysteries about what the toughest disagreements are over — Medicaid funding and insurance market regulations.

This week is crucial: the Senate won't vote without a CBO score, which means they need to finalize negotiations this week.

Behind-the-scenes: McConnell and Senate leaders have been at this for all of May and now first couple weeks of June, turning their weekly lunches into working sessions on various aspects of the healthcare legislation. They've whittled down the stack of items that people don't agree on. I've spoken to a number of people who know McConnell well who speculate that he'll force a vote regardless of whether he knows he has 50 votes.

They say he's desperate to move on to tax reform and can't have healthcare hanging around like a bad smell through the summer.

On the House side:

Following the White House's "Workforce Development Week," House GOP leadership will vote on two workforce bills. The big one: a bipartisan bill to reauthorize the "Perkins Act" for six years — providing more than $1 billion per year in federal support for career and technical education programs.

Wednesday's conference meeting is expected to be more policy-focused than usual. (They had to cancel Friday's meeting due to the fallout from last week's shooting.) A senior House aide tells me the Wednesday conference will focus on the budget caps and appropriations.

Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy will both address the National Association of Manufacturers. Ryan pushing tax reform and McCarthy on reg reform and workforce development.
Click to expand...
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Kevinroc said:
McConnell wants to force health care vote by July 4th

https://www.axios.com/mcconnell-schedule-health-care-vote-2444017826.html
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"240 years ago, our Founding Fathers sent a list of grievances that they had suffered under an unjust government. And now, the Republican Party has taken those steps to become such an unjust government. In 2017, here is a modern Declaration of the grievances that the Republican Party and the Trump Administration has committed or intends to commit against the people of this country"

Proceed to write up some good red meat, market it, win Congress. Remember the hokey pocket Constitutions? Americans love that shit. Fucking people over on Independence Day is begging for a rebuttal.
 
S

SJurgenson

Banned
Zaraki_Kenpachi said:
:lol It's amazing when even Fox News is calling out the lawyer for Trump who can't keep his lies straight on whether or not he's being investigated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxAIaFyxzig

So apparently the FBI director has attorney client privilege with the president... Hmmm
Click to expand...

I really liked Wallace's handling of the Presidential debate he moderated.

Also, at least we know 2 of Trumps lawyers are completely out of their league.

That guy couldn't even survive a Fox News interview for Pete's sake.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
I find it hard to believe he'd put up a vote even if he knew it would fail

He could easily just say "we are postponing work on the repeal due to whatever and such and such" and everyone would forget about it.
 
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