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[NeoXChaos]

Utah, Wyoming and Idaho are probably the only three states in that region Democrats have not won a Senate Seat since the 70's. The rest that have been named Democrats have had recent success in.

 

[Sciz]

I'd love to get rid of Bob Corker, but I don't see it happening unless the AHCA passes and does its damage in short order. Tennessee's gone all in on the religious right since Ford Jr.'s run.

 

[BoogieWoogie]

I'd love to get rid of Bob Corker, but I don't see it happening unless the AHCA passes and does its damage in short order. Tennessee's gone all in on the religious right since Ford Jr.'s run.

If the AHCA passes, something like 14 millions people will be booted off health care THIS YEAR, so there's that.

 

[Ogodei]

I'd love to get rid of Bob Corker, but I don't see it happening unless the AHCA passes and does its damage in short order. Tennessee's gone all in on the religious right since Ford Jr.'s run.

But Nashville's still expanding, right? Tennessee could get there in time.

I was thinking about the future, and really all of the states with growing urban areas (to discount stagnant or shrinking urban areas like Detroit) are likely to become bluer in the long term given population trends and rapid re-urbanization.

To that end, these could be the blue states by 2040 (assuming that there's no political realignment before then, a big caveat):

New Hampshire (the southern end of the state becomes a massive Boston commuter hub)
Vermont (the last remaining rural blue state, i don't see it changing long-term)
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Maryland
Delaware (where Wilmington will continue to dominate state politics as the greater Philly metro area grows)
Virginia
North Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Texas
New Mexico
Arizona
Nevada
California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii
Colorado
DC
Puerto Rico (by then)

The solid red states by 2040:
Maine
West Virginia
Kentucky
Ohio
Indiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Kansas
Nebraska
North Dakota
South Dakota
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah
Alaska
Wisconsin

The swing states:
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Montana
Tennessee

But i think we'll see a realignment take shape by the 2032 cycle, which could throw off the map here in either direction if we have parties that are harder to recognize (like if, somehow, we got a trans-racial working class party that unified whites and minorities that fought an upper-class party).

But once Texas turns and Florida solidifies, the GOP will have a time of it even if they start getting a consistent spread of Michigan-Ohio-Wisconsin.

 

[Extollere]

Oh look, republicans are playing dirty again:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/18/politics/kfile-obama-georgia-ad/index.html


Complete scum. I'd love to see what they said if democrats went nuts like this in 2018 and played every deceitful, dirty trick in the book. NOTE--not saying democrats SHOULD. Just wondering what GOP reaction would be if they did.

This is why Republicans win elections. Because they lie. Have been for decades. These tactics are common among their base. This with their propaganda machine will keep gullible people voting Republican forever.

 

[Kevinroc]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/876638772984770560

NEW INFO ON SENATE BILL: Word is bill submitted 2 CBO is actually MORE severe than the House bill.

Same House bill Trump described as mean.

When asked for clarification on how the Senate bill could be more severe: https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/876641581050286080

Bigger cuts to Medicaid

 

[kirblar]

Wouldn't we know if a bill was actually submitted to the CBO? Public organization and all that?

 

[ErasureAcer]

Minnesota solid red by 2040? Find that hard to believe.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

If the Senate bill is even harsher (presumably to make the budget-neutral reconciliation threshold), how the hell will Trump spin signing it when he not only ran on the opposite promise, but called the House bill "mean"?

I can't wait until the PBS documentary 5-10 years from now that tells us what the hell data Republicans are looking at that are telling them that draconian healthcare cuts to pay for tax reform will play well with anybody.

 

[Zolo]

If the Senate bill is even harsher (presumably to make the budget-neutral reconciliation threshold), how the hell will Trump spin signing it when he not only ran on the opposite promise, but called the House bill "mean"?

I can't wait until the PBS documentary 5-10 years from now that tells us what the hell data Republicans are looking at that are telling them that draconian healthcare cuts to pay for tax reform will play well with anybody.

He didn't say it in public if I remember right, so he can just say reports were wrong.

I'm still wondering why they're trying to kill their largest base.

 

[Chris R]

Their largest base tends to have a shitton of children, most of which grow up voting R.

As long as they keep pushing evangelical friendly positions they can do whatever the fuck they want, like killing health care or grabbing people by the pussy, and people will still vote for them

 

[BlastProcessing]

Hat tip to @yashar for finding this.

Trump 4 years ago today.

@realDonaldTrump
Do you think Putin will be going to The Miss Universe Pageant in November in Moscow - if so, will he become my new best friend?​

 

[Roland_Gunner]

I can't wait until the PBS documentary 5-10 years from now that tells us what the hell data Republicans are looking at that are telling them that draconian healthcare cuts to pay for tax reform will play well with anybody.

The basic GOP rationale is out there. Pass AHCA and the Dem base will be more motivated than usual so they take a solid beating in the midterms but still have a decent shot at keeping the house. Don't pass it and the other side still hates Trump and turns out AND your base stays home or votes for third party candidates and its a complete wipe out. Elected Republicans are more afraid of their base than moderates or liberals.

 

[Zolo]

Their largest base tends to have a shitton of children, most of which grow up voting R.

As long as they keep pushing evangelical friendly positions they can do whatever the fuck they want, like killing health care or grabbing people by the pussy, and people will still vote for them

Depends. A lot of families have kids that have grown up to turn Democratic. At least here in the south, I've seen that issue with my fair share of families.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

The basic GOP rationale is out there. Pass AHCA and the Dem base will be more motivated than usual so they take a solid beating in the midterms but still have a decent shot at keeping the house. Don't pass it and the other side still hates Trump and turns out AND your base stays home or votes for third party candidates and its a complete wipe out. Elected Republicans are more afraid of their base than moderates or liberals.

I mean this makes sense in theory, but you could just as easily say that they only got the victory they did because Trump, with his history of Rockefeller Republicanism, somehow convinced typically apathetic or Dem-leaning rural whites that he wouldn't touch social services they actually use, which made it an acceptable risk to vote for his pro-cop, anti-Muslim rhetoric rather than staying home and grumbling. How are they going to avoid the inevitable "BETRAYAL!!!!" attack ads pointing out that the health bill is the exact opposite of what Trump promised? What are their focus groups saying that make this seeming suicide pact their best play?

 

[numble]

If the Senate bill is even harsher (presumably to make the budget-neutral reconciliation threshold), how the hell will Trump spin signing it when he not only ran on the opposite promise, but called the House bill "mean"?

I can't wait until the PBS documentary 5-10 years from now that tells us what the hell data Republicans are looking at that are telling them that draconian healthcare cuts to pay for tax reform will play well with anybody.

It is not harsher to make the reconciliation threshold. That is a given since it proposes so many cuts. It is probably harsher with larger Medicaid cuts but phasing it in over a long period of time. The "moderates" in the Senate are okay with it since it will not take effect until 4 election cycles. The Freedom Caucus will be happier with it because it is cutting even more.

The basic GOP rationale is out there. Pass AHCA and the Dem base will be more motivated than usual so they take a solid beating in the midterms but still have a decent shot at keeping the house. Don't pass it and the other side still hates Trump and turns out AND your base stays home or votes for third party candidates and its a complete wipe out. Elected Republicans are more afraid of their base than moderates or liberals.

Plus, they need AHCA passed to get to tax cuts this year. Their voters can only be bribed with a larger tax refund in April 2018 if they get tax cuts passed this year.

 

[neurosisxeno]

Hat tip to @yashar for finding this.

Trump 4 years ago today.

@realDonaldTrump
Do you think Putin will be going to The Miss Universe Pageant in November in Moscow - if so, will he become my new best friend?​

Putin moved in on him like a bitch.

 

[royalan]

The one good thing, if it turns out the Senate healthcare bill is even worse than the House bill, is that it will dispel once and for all the fiction that the Senate GOP is any less deplorable than their siblings in the House.

 

[sc0la]

Putin moved in on him like a bitch.

Putin took Donald furniture shopping?

 

[Chumley]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/18/politics/jay-sekulow-donald-trump/index.html

This is fucking surreal.

Like I don't understand this. Does this lawyer think he's fooling anyone? What planet am I living on?

 

[Kevinroc]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/876644861088235522

Strategy seems to be anchor the right and buy the moderates one by one.

Press needs to get the details out.

 

[Zolo]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/876644861088235522

So basically, figure who'll vote for it no matter what and then bribe the ones who are hesitant? Guess a nice exit package is good incentive if you're worried about your seat. Or at least a pledge for more campaign money.

 

[Chris R]

lol @ Murkowski being considered a moderate

 

[numble]

So basically, figure who'll vote for it no matter what and then bribe the ones who are hesitant? Guess a nice exit package is good incentive if you're worried about your seat. Or at least a pledge for more campaign money.

Those options are illegal.

"Buying out" means supporting pet "pork" projects that the politicians can tout as a benefit that they brought to their states.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I think Trump won't like the bill, will pretend it's great to get the Democrats to stand loudly against it, and then let them delay it so he doesn't have to pass it. He really thinks Obamacare will implode, so if he doesn't have a great magical bill everyone would love he'll just hope he can blame everything on the Dems and capitalize on it. He repeated this so many times it's clear he really believes it's the smartest thing to do.

 

[numble]

I think Trump won't like the bill, will pretend it's great to get the Democrats to stand loudly against it, and then let them delay it so he doesn't have to pass it. He really thinks Obamacare will implode, so if he doesn't have a great magical bill everyone would love he'll just hope he can blame everything on the Dems and capitalize on it. He repeated this so many times it's clear he really believes it's the smartest thing to do.

He already celebrated its passage in the Rose Garden:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pres...t-trump-healthcare-vote-house-representatives

So what we have is something very, very incredibly well-crafted. Tell you what, there is a lot of talent standing behind me. An unbelievable amount of talent, that I can tell you. I mean it. (Applause.) And coming from a different world and only being a politician for a short period of time -- how am I doing? Am I doing okay? I’m President. Hey, I’m President. Can you believe it? Right? (Applause.) I don’t know, it’s -- I thought you needed a little bit more time. They always told me, more time. But we didn’t.

But we have an amazing group of people standing behind me. They worked so hard and they worked so long. And when I said, let’s do this, let’s go out, just short little shots for each one of us and let’s say how good this plan is -- we don’t have to talk about this unbelievable victory -- wasn’t it unbelievable? So we don’t have to say it again. But it’s going to be an unbelievable victory, actually, when we get it through the Senate.

And there’s so much spirit there. But I said, let’s go out -- we have a little list of some of the people -- and I think after that list goes, if they don’t talk too long, our first list, we’re going to let some of the other folks just come up and say whatever you want.

But we want to brag about the plan, because this plan really -- uh oh. (Laughter.) Well, we may. (Laughter.) But we’re just going to talk a little bit about the plan, how good it is, some of the great features.

 

[Aaron Strife]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/876644861088235522

Yes, more Medicaid cuts, that'll win Murkowski over.

 

[Kusagari]

I'm guessing the Medicaid cuts were to get Rand to switch over and they'll let Collins and Murkowski be the token nays.

 

[Zolo]

Those options are illegal.

"Buying out" means supporting pet "pork" projects that the politicians can tout as a benefit that they brought to their states.

Yeah....I figured they'd be. -.- I was thinking about corporations that could donate to certain political campaigns.

I think Trump won't like the bill, will pretend it's great to get the Democrats to stand loudly against it, and then let them delay it so he doesn't have to pass it. He really thinks Obamacare will implode, so if he doesn't have a great magical bill everyone would love he'll just hope he can blame everything on the Dems and capitalize on it. He repeated this so many times it's clear he really believes it's the smartest thing to do.

That would be seen as a loss. He'd rather pass it and spin it.

 

[neurosisxeno]

That would be seen as a loss. He'd rather pass it and spin it.

There is no spinning this piece of shit. It's bad legislation. The American people hate it. The CBO is going to tell us it's horrific. And the only justification for passing it is so they can say they did something. They aren't even trying to spin it as a beneficial bill. Paul Ryan outright said the bill is designed not to fix healthcare, but to be passable through Budget Reconciliation. It's nothing but a massive tax cut that is going to dump 20-30 million Americans from their health insurance, and lose every Republican that voted for it their seat. I mean, how many Democrats were given the axe for the ACA? And that actually benefited people and had some decent PR prior to Republican craziness...

 

[AntraxSuicide]

But Nashville's still expanding, right? Tennessee could get there in time.

I was thinking about the future, and really all of the states with growing urban areas (to discount stagnant or shrinking urban areas like Detroit) are likely to become bluer in the long term given population trends and rapid re-urbanization.

To that end, these could be the blue states by 2040 (assuming that there's no political realignment before then, a big caveat):

New Hampshire (the southern end of the state becomes a massive Boston commuter hub)
Vermont (the last remaining rural blue state, i don't see it changing long-term)
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Maryland
Delaware (where Wilmington will continue to dominate state politics as the greater Philly metro area grows)
Virginia
North Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Texas
New Mexico
Arizona
Nevada
California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii
Colorado
DC
Puerto Rico (by then)

The solid red states by 2040:
Maine
West Virginia
Kentucky
Ohio
Indiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Kansas
Nebraska
North Dakota
South Dakota
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah
Alaska
Wisconsin

The swing states:
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Montana
Tennessee

But i think we'll see a realignment take shape by the 2032 cycle, which could throw off the map here in either direction if we have parties that are harder to recognize (like if, somehow, we got a trans-racial working class party that unified whites and minorities that fought an upper-class party).

But once Texas turns and Florida solidifies, the GOP will have a time of it even if they start getting a consistent spread of Michigan-Ohio-Wisconsin.

Missing some states here (unless you're thinking that several states will fail by 2040, which isn't unreasonable for Mississippi).

 

[Crocodile]

Having Medicaid phase out means its a campaign issue for several cycles. Does doing a phase out really accomplish much politically?

I mean this makes sense in theory, but you could just as easily say that they only got the victory they did because Trump, with his history of Rockefeller Republicanism, somehow convinced typically apathetic or Dem-leaning rural whites that he wouldn't touch social services they actually use, which made it an acceptable risk to vote for his pro-cop, anti-Muslim rhetoric rather than staying home and grumbling. How are they going to avoid the inevitable "BETRAYAL!!!!" attack ads pointing out that the health bill is the exact opposite of what Trump promised? What are their focus groups saying that make this seeming suicide pact their best play?

There is audio, video and tweets of Trump promising not touch Medicaid, etc. There is no universe in which the ads won't be devastating even in deep red States/Counties.

 

[A Human Becoming]

lol @ Murkowski being considered a moderate

Moderate or not her state could be hit the hardest.

 

[sangreal]

I'm guessing the Medicaid cuts were to get Rand to switch over and they'll let Collins and Murkowski be the token nays.

I don't think that does anything for Rand. His problem is the bill affords too many protections -- aka Obamacare light. I think only one of murkowski and Collins will be a no depending on what the right flank is willing to cave on -- Medicaid or defunding PP

 

[Aaron Strife]

I don't think that does anything for Rand. His problem is the bill affords too many protections -- aka Obamacare light. I think only one of murkowski and Collins will be a no depending on what the right flank is willing to cave on -- Medicaid or defunding PP

I've heard not defunding PP is a nonstarter for some of the far right votes. They might gain Collins but at the expense of someone else.

If the tweet about the new bill cutting Medicaid further is true, then they're clearly not angling for Murkowski's support here.

 

[Chumley]

Oh boy, Chris Wallace takes the fucking dipshit Trump lawyer to task.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxAIaFyxzig

One of the only men with integrity on FOX.

 

[Zolo]

Oh boy, Chris Wallace takes the fucking dipshit Trump lawyer to task.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxAIaFyxzig

One of the only men with integrity on FOX.

Damn. That Lawyer lost it. Did Trump push him on there?

 

[neurosisxeno]

One of the only men with integrity on FOX.

Him and Shep vs. The World.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Trump's lawyer saying he has never tweeted anything that has given him trouble is probably the biggest lie any human has ever told

 

[Chumley]

Morning Joe taking a dump on Kasowitz right now lol

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Having Medicaid phase out means its a campaign issue for several cycles. Does doing a phase out really accomplish much politically?.

I was thinking this as well. Instead of being an issue for safe senators in 2018, the problems get extended well into 2022, when there aren't as many safe senators and quite a few in trouble.

Cutting Medicaid so drastically doesn't really do anything for them other than bump up the uninsured number from the CBO report that Democrats can now campaign on for several cycles.

 

[neurosisxeno]

Watching House of Cards, and at this point I would take Frank Underwood as president over Trump any day...

 

[nature boy]

 

[Blader]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/876644861088235522

I mean, every congressional GOP strategy is to swing hard to the right to secure conservatives, then pick up moderates one by one.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

This is like 10,000th on the list of things wrong or weird about Trump but this tweet is another example of him having no perception of what other people know or don't know. "Who's Karen H?" 98% of his Twitter followers say. "Vote where? How? For what?" He's completely stuck in his own brain.

 

[Genius at Work]

The Dems want good healthcare and border security by stopping tax cuts (to the rich)? Sounds good to me.

 

[Plinko]

Classy GOP in Georgia claiming "the shooting is going to win" the election for them.

Edit: Just saw in the other thread how dirty they actually are. Unreal. Democrats may need to start fighting back in this way.

 

[Veritigo_X]

Heading to the local school to vote for Karen H now. I don't want P to increase.

 

[Tommy DJ]

P as in pee? Probationary licenses?

 

[Ogodei]

Missing some states here (unless you're thinking that several states will fail by 2040, which isn't unreasonable for Mississippi).

Alabama and Mississippi just end up underwater while Florida and Louisiana go on stilts.

I could see Alabama possibly going swing state if Montgomery becomes another sunbelt business hub, Mississippi is one of those states that'll get worse, especially if you see its black population migrate to more progressive southern metro areas. A new Great Migration, but instead of South-North it's just rural blacks from the Plantation Belt migrating to big cities in that same belt (Charlotte and Atlanta, notably)