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[Blader]

Which we're getting close to. His Republican approvals are close to Dubya's right before the death spiral. I think the Trump presidency is going to play out like Bush's second term.

I would honestly say, even with Trump's approvals in the toilet right now (and basically his entire presidency to date), we're probably still a year away from the point when Republicans start putting more and more distance between themselves and Trump. I think the midterms and the possibility of a primary challenger in 2019 will exacerbate that divide. I don't think there will be any serious abandonment of Trump this year, no matter what Russia dirt is dug up next, simply because he still has value as someone who can rubberstamp their terrible bills right now.

 

[Brawly Likes to Brawl]

Is there anyone worse than Steve King? The guy proposed using food stamp and Planned Parenthood funds to build a border wall.

Dude has straight up said that White People are the only ones that contribute to civilization. He's drinking pure sugar cane Racism Classic.

 

[numble]

You're cherry-picking the parts that focus on inequality out of a list of items that are part of a greater whole consisting of populist economic messaging. Yes, inequality is part of that messaging, but as we saw in this past election, it's far from central as a concern to many of these voters, as a super-rich New Yorker picked up the Economic Populism mantle alongside racism and narrowly got to a victory lying his ass off.

In fact, the main takeaway you can likely take from '08, '12 and '16 is that lying your ass off to these voters is probably the best strategy. (Obama going after Hillary on NAFTA in the '08 primaries, as an example) They want simple answers to complex problems that do not challenge their status quo. But those simple answers don't exist and their status quo is not sustainable.

The message from the initial focus group testing was that Income Inequality was a very bad headline message, and that still stands. You can include it as part of another message, but if you try to run on it as a primary message, you're likely to follow in the footsteps of OWS.

I am contrasting Galston's main argument in his pre-election Op-Ed, which focused on poll results for certain messages, with his post-election analysis, which focused on poll results for certain messages in a particular state. It is not cherry-picking to directly compare the two polling results to see a significant deviation--he says those messages are not important to the electorate due to the 45-46% response rate, whereas those messages get a 54%-62% response rate in Ohio.

 

[kirblar]

I am contrasting Galston's main argument in his pre-election Op-Ed, which focused on poll results for certain messages, with his post-election analysis, which focused on poll results for certain messages in a particular state. It is not cherry-picking to directly compare the two polling results to see a significant deviation--he says those messages are not important to the electorate due to the 45-46% response rate, whereas those messages get a 54%-62% response rate in Ohio.

Those latter polls weren't testing campaign messages, they were polling on policy preferences. They're not the same. (and we've repeatedly seen that people vote against their own policy preferences all the time depending on what they're prioritizing)

 

[Teggy]

Is there anyone worse than Steve King? The guy proposed using food stamp and Planned Parenthood funds to build a border wall.

Maybe not the worst of the worst, but proof that an honest to goodness racist/white supremacist can still be elected to congress.

 

[Autodidact]

I would honestly say, even with Trump's approvals in the toilet right now (and basically his entire presidency to date), we're probably still a year away from the point when Republicans start putting more and more distance between themselves and Trump. I think the midterms and the possibility of a primary challenger in 2019 will exacerbate that divide. I don't think there will be any serious abandonment of Trump this year, no matter what Russia dirt is dug up next, simply because he still has value as someone who can rubberstamp their terrible bills right now.

But what if they can't pass any of their terrible bills? Oftentimes, Congress needs a strong, persuasive executive to sell the bill to the public. The ACA passed partly because Obama advocated for it relentlessly. Trump has shown no knowledge of policy and no willingness to hit the stump to promote his Congress's legislation. He hasn't even consulted the insurance companies and providers whose business this bill would wreck. And when a Republican shuns big business, you know shit's gone wrong.

Keeping him around might be inimical to furthering their agenda - a true monkey's paw of a Republican president.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I still think the reason Trump called Flynn at 3am to ask him if the US dollar should be strong or weak is proof he was asking Flynn to tell him what policies he should favor because Flynn was the one communicating with a foreign government to establish policies to enact, and it's why Trump is so desperate to get Flynn cleared; he knows it leads to literal treason.

 

[Host Samurai]

Would be beautiful if he's found guilty of crimes and doesn't get a pardon, but that would happen in 2020. I wonder what kind of backlash there would be if Pence or Ryan pardon him. Hopefully he's convicted of state crimes

 

[Vimes]

I'm fine with Easy D doubling down on the religious right. Their political credibility needs to be obliterated and he will just hasten it.

 

[Autodidact]

Would be beautiful if he's found guilty of crimes and doesn't get a pardon, but that would happen in 2020. I wonder what kind of backlash there would be if Pence or Ryan pardon him. Hopefully he's convicted of state crimes

Well, 1974 brought Republicans a nasty midterm backlash, and Ford lost two years later.

 

[Plinko]

Organized religion in America is mostly on its deathbed having been destroyed by the very political alliances it made to get more powerful. The moment organized religion became inconvenient is the moment the Republican Party began trying to undermine the organizations of many religions. Growing up Catholic, I'd see time and again "hardcore" believers and followers of the Church discount the teachings of their leaders because they were "irrelevant" to the real world (the War on Terror in particular). But Americans are still attracted to organized religion. For many, the Republican Party is that new religion.

LOL that's crazy hyperbole.

 

[kirblar]

One thing I'm not sure people appreciate- Nixon won in a landslide in '72 after a successful 4 year term, was incredibly popular and it still brought him down. He torpedoed himself for no reason because he was a hyper-paranoid mess despite actually pretty good on policy, all things considered.

 

[Diablos]

A lot of these nominees sure do have a lot of "family issues".

No one wants to be associated with this White House.

 

[Hindl]

I'm fine with Easy D doubling down on the religious right. Their political credibility needs to be obliterated and he will just hasten it.

I don't see how this damages their political credibility at all. Trump is already antithetical to pretty much all of the beliefs of the religious right besides maybe abortion. He's foul, crude, has had numerous failed marriages, is a sexual harasser, and all that shit. And they still tied their boat to him. They believe God's messenger can be flawed if it gets his will done. Once he goes down they'll just move on to the next one

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

He's not wrong though. Where is his legal problem? He clearly "omitted" this meeting on the requisite disclosure form, and nothing matters.

I don't know where you're getting the idea that someone's going to be arrested, like, 36 hours after it seems evident he violated a disclosure law. Kushner could get nailed on this a year or years from now and it would be within the normal course of an investigation of this scope.

 

[Autodidact]

I don't see how this damages their political credibility at all. Trump is already antithetical to pretty much all of the beliefs of the religious right besides maybe abortion. He's foul, crude, has had numerous failed marriages, is a sexual harasser, and all that shit. And they still tied their boat to him. They believe God's messenger can be flawed if it gets his will done. Once he goes down they'll just move on to the next one

I guarantee you he's paid for a mistress's abortion.

 

[Hindl]

I guarantee you he's paid for a mistress's abortion.

Oh yeah I'm sure he's done that, but he's at least advocating for defunding Planned Parenthood as President and being anti-abortion. It's all a show but he is doing what they want there

 

[Slacker]

This is my new favorite Trump Tweet™:

Donald J. Trump‏
The W.H. is functioning perfectly, focused on HealthCare, Tax Cuts/Reform & many other things. I have very little time for watching T.V.

I'm going to announce to my team at work: "Hey guys, just wanted to let you know the company is functioning perfectly. We are making money and depositing that money into an account that supplies your paychecks which will continue to be able to be cashed as normal. Also I have very little time to watch TV."

 

[Box of Kittens]

One thing I'm not sure people appreciate- Nixon won in a landslide in '72 after a successful 4 year term, was incredibly popular and it still brought him down. He torpedoed himself for no reason because he was a hyper-paranoid mess despite actually pretty good on policy, all things considered.

Always the most ridiculous aspect of the whole thing.

Nixon felt compelled to cheat against George McGovern.

 

[Teggy]

Do they misspell all the time on purpose?

 

[Vimes]

I don't see how this damages their political credibility at all. Trump is already antithetical to pretty much all of the beliefs of the religious right besides maybe abortion. He's foul, crude, has had numerous failed marriages, is a sexual harasser, and all that shit. And they still tied their boat to him. They believe God's messenger can be flawed if it gets his will done. Once he goes down they'll just move on to the next one

Isn't there some evidence that this cycle is part of the reason americans are gradually steering away from organized religion as a whole? Or am I just being naive?

 

[pigeon]

I don't have faith in our institutions. That's the problem.

Well, you should.

I mean, no, this is clearly dumb as hell. Our institutions have already failed.

It is genuinely a massive constitutional and governmental crisis that the Republicans are clearly aware that Donald Trump is manifestly unfit to lead, that he has no intention of serving the American people, and that he has significant already-uncovered relationships with a foreign government who deliberately intervened in American elections, and that they are currently doing nothing about it because they want to get political benefits from tolerating it.

Saying "the system is working as designed!" is enormously ignorant. Things could get a lot worse, sure. But American government has already failed to a very great degree. The question is whether it can be repaired.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Always the most ridiculous aspect of the whole thing.

Nixon felt compelled to cheat against George McGovern.

http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/DickDastardlyStopsToCheat

But real.

 

[Ogodei]

LOL that's crazy hyperbole.

The bolded isn't quite the right phrasing, but the rest of the post pans out. Christianity sold its soul to the paleoconservative zeitgeist and it quickly becomes apparent that when there's a clash between, say, Fox News and the Pope, the flock will go with Fox, because the only truth anymore is the truth that makes them feel good, which is this sort of Supply Side Jesus heresy built up by Moral Majority hucksters to feed the Republican Party.

Much as they want thought-free politics, they want thought-free religion, so the theologians who put actual thought and work into how to interpret the scriptures for modern life are ignored whenever their findings conflict with the felt truth of conservatism.

You could argue it's become more of a religion than the religions, because religions themselves have always been about introspection and questioning the truth (within certain bounds. Like in Christianity you couldn't question the trinity, but a lot of other ideas have been tested by church thinkers over the years). Conservatism has become a felt truth, intuitively known and thus impenetrable to scrutiny among its followers.

 

[Hindl]

Isn't there some evidence that this cycle is part of the reason americans are gradually steering away from organized religion as a whole? Or am I just being naive?

It's possible, and that might just correlate to younger generations being less religious than their parents. I'm sure there's data saying organized religion is on the decline in general and Trump's attitude may be assisting that. But it's still a massive institution, and no matter what happens with Trump, I'm sure organized religion will play a big role in politics for at least the next several decades.

 

[RumbleHumble]

LOL that's crazy hyperbole.

Fair, speaking out of turn and all that, but organized religion as it pertains to Christianity in the United States is on the decline among white citizens. Calling referring to it as on its "deathbed" is admittedly going too far. A large enough contingent of these voters still appear to be looking for a religion that the Republican party is more than happy to provide.

 

[RumbleHumble]

The bolded isn't quite the right phrasing, but the rest of the post pans out. Christianity sold its soul to the paleoconservative zeitgeist and it quickly becomes apparent that when there's a clash between, say, Fox News and the Pope, the flock will go with Fox, because the only truth anymore is the truth that makes them feel good, which is this sort of Supply Side Jesus heresy built up by Moral Majority hucksters to feed the Republican Party.

Much as they want thought-free politics, they want thought-free religion, so the theologians who put actual thought and work into how to interpret the scriptures for modern life are ignored whenever their findings conflict with the felt truth of conservatism.

You could argue it's become more of a religion than the religions, because religions themselves have always been about introspection and questioning the truth (within certain bounds. Like in Christianity you couldn't question the trinity, but a lot of other ideas have been tested by church thinkers over the years). Conservatism has become a felt truth, intuitively known and thus impenetrable to scrutiny among its followers.

That's essentially what I'm trying to argue, but based mostly on anecdotal evidence and previous experience as a person who used to be deeply religious/conservative.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Always the most ridiculous aspect of the whole thing.

Nixon felt compelled to cheat against George McGovern.

Isn't the general thinking that Nixon never knew about the break in at the time but participated/ordered the cover up?

 

[RumbleHumble]

Isn't the general thinking that Nixon never knew about the break in at the time but participated/ordered the cover up?

At the very least, it was never proven that Nixon gave any orders/consented to the break-in. The cover-up is always what kills in cases like these because the cover-up is usually the easiest thing to prove.

 

[Autodidact]

Trump will be best thing ever to happen to Nixon's reputation.

 

[Maledict]

The bolded isn't quite the right phrasing, but the rest of the post pans out. Christianity sold its soul to the paleoconservative zeitgeist and it quickly becomes apparent that when there's a clash between, say, Fox News and the Pope, the flock will go with Fox, because the only truth anymore is the truth that makes them feel good, which is this sort of Supply Side Jesus heresy built up by Moral Majority hucksters to feed the Republican Party.

Much as they want thought-free politics, they want thought-free religion, so the theologians who put actual thought and work into how to interpret the scriptures for modern life are ignored whenever their findings conflict with the felt truth of conservatism.

You could argue it's become more of a religion than the religions, because religions themselves have always been about introspection and questioning the truth (within certain bounds. Like in Christianity you couldn't question the trinity, but a lot of other ideas have been tested by church thinkers over the years). Conservatism has become a felt truth, intuitively known and thus impenetrable to scrutiny among its followers.

Um, there are many branches of Christianity, and there's absolutely no reason for evangelical protestants to give a single shit about what the pope says, heck, for many years they considered the pope the antichrist (and some still do!).

The issue with the religious block vote is complicated. It's not that they are dumb, or that they ignore how bad Trump is. It's not even that they are hypocritical - they *know* he's a complete dick. But evangelical faith also has the strong notion that god works through flawed champions (David etc), and that a single issue can be more important that a persons character. If you honestly think that abortion is murdering babies, then the candidate more opposed to that is the one you will vote for regardless of what an evil, immoral person he is personally. Saving innocent babies lives is more important than Donald trump being crude, cheating on his wife, and generally being a dick.

It's a good reason why playing for the elderly evangelical vote is a complete waste of time. Until the Democratic Party changes its stance on abortion (which let's hope to fuck it never does!) those voters are out of reach no matter how religious the D candidate is and how evil and immoral the R candidate is.

 

[Host Samurai]

Trump will be best thing ever to happen to Nixon's reputation.

and Dubya

 

[Maledict]

At the very least, it was never proven that Nixon gave any orders/consented to the break-in. The cover-up is always what kills in cases like these because the cover-up is usually the easiest thing to prove.

I think in this case the old adage of it being the coverup that gets you not the crime will be proven false, for the simple fact we have written evidence of treason by the guilty party...

 

[Dan]

WaPo: State Department spent more than $15,000 for rooms at new Trump hotel in Vancouver

The State Department spent more than $15,000 to book 19 rooms at the new Trump hotel in Vancouver when members of President Trump’s family headlined the grand opening of the tower in late February.

The hotel bookings — which were released to The Washington Post under a Freedom of Information Act request — reflect the first evidence of State Department expenditures at a Trump-branded property since President Trump took office in January.

The department redacted many of the details on the invoice from the U.S. Consulate General in Vancouver and declined to provide additional information about the nature of the State Department’s presence at the hotel. Although the Secret Service is responsible for protecting the president’s family, the State Department provides assistance with security and logistics for international trips.

The president’s sons, Donald Jr. and Eric, their spouses, and the president’s daughter, Tiffany, were flanked by a heavy security presence on Feb. 28 during a ribbon-cutting ceremony and a VIP party hosted by developer Joo Kim Tiah, the son of one of Malaysia’s wealthiest businessmen.

The Trump Organization does not own the Trump International Hotel and Tower in Vancouver but instead has a management and licensing deal. Trump’s most recent financial disclosure reflects that he earned more than $5 million in royalties from the Vancouver project during the last reporting period, which covers the year 2016 through April 2017.

A State Department official did not answer questions about who stayed at the Trump hotel and the reasons for their stay.

Important to note this is on top of the Secret Service expenditures.

The Post previously reported that the Secret Service spent $88,320 for lodging on Eric Trump’s business trip to Uruguay in early January to promote a Trump hotel and condominium tower under construction in the resort town of Punta del Este.

The State Department — through the U.S. Embassy in Montevideo — paid an additional $9,510 for hotel rooms to assist the Secret Service for the visit, according to purchasing orders.

If the ratio is at all like the Uruguay trip, the Secret Service might have spent another $139k on lodging for this Vancouver trip, a portion of which gets funneled right back to the Trump Organization.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Bush was in the mid to low 40s before the Katrina response/aftermath and Iraq war implosion(s) cratered his presidency. Trump is currently in the low 40s to high 30s, meaning he has less breathing room than Bush did. Trump really hasn't done anything to rise or fall significantly in the polls - it seems like the movement is largely due to the overwhelmingly negative media coverage he's getting, including various leaks, as well as his hyper partisan attributes. While all this is going on...the economy continues to improve and we're not involved in some large scale military conflict (at least not officially). Everything was in place for him to be somewhat popular or tolerable...and he still fucked it up.

So imagine where he'll be if he's actually faced with a crisis and fails in his response. Or if an unpopular, unnecessary war pops off and goes badly (say...we unilaterally attack NK and Seoul gets obliterated).

Trump has been pretty damn lucky thus far as president, compared to Clinton/W/Obama who faced some pretty big events early on.

 

[RumbleHumble]

White House twitter makes post claiming CBO crunches numbers inaccurately. Misspells "inaccurately" . Promptly removes post for more accurate representation.

https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/885197726329253889

 

[RumbleHumble]

I think in this case the old adage of it being the coverup that gets you not the crime will be proven false, for the simple fact we have written evidence of treason by the guilty party...

Which is why "Stupid Watergate" is such a great description of what's going on here.

 

[Not]

LOL that's crazy hyperbole.

I'll say. It's stronger than ever.

Religion's what's keeping white supremacy afloat.

 

[Ogodei]

Um, there are many branches of Christianity, and there's absolutely no reason for evangelical protestants to give a single shit about what the pope says, heck, for many years they considered the pope the antichrist (and some still do!).

The issue with the religious block vote is complicated. It's not that they are dumb, or that they ignore how bad Trump is. It's not even that they are hypocritical - they *know* he's a complete dick. But evangelical faith also has the strong notion that god works through flawed champions (David etc), and that a single issue can be more important that a persons character. If you honestly think that abortion is murdering babies, then the candidate more opposed to that is the one you will vote for regardless of what an evil, immoral person he is personally. Saving innocent babies lives is more important than Donald trump being crude, cheating on his wife, and generally being a dick.

It's a good reason why playing for the elderly evangelical vote is a complete waste of time. Until the Democratic Party changes its stance on abortion (which let's hope to fuck it never does!) those voters are out of reach no matter how religious the D candidate is and how evil and immoral the R candidate is.

I was using the pope as an example. Religious thought leaders across denominations are losing credibility when their reflections clash with that of the right-wing thought bubble.

For instance, the Southern Baptist Convention recently denounced the Alt Right. None of that's going to sink in to the congregants who need to absorb that message the most.

 

[RumbleHumble]

Um, there are many branches of Christianity, and there's absolutely no reason for evangelical protestants to give a single shit about what the pope says, heck, for many years they considered the pope the antichrist (and some still do!).

The issue with the religious block vote is complicated. It's not that they are dumb, or that they ignore how bad Trump is. It's not even that they are hypocritical - they *know* he's a complete dick. But evangelical faith also has the strong notion that god works through flawed champions (David etc), and that a single issue can be more important that a persons character. If you honestly think that abortion is murdering babies, then the candidate more opposed to that is the one you will vote for regardless of what an evil, immoral person he is personally. Saving innocent babies lives is more important than Donald trump being crude, cheating on his wife, and generally being a dick.

It's a good reason why playing for the elderly evangelical vote is a complete waste of time. Until the Democratic Party changes its stance on abortion (which let's hope to fuck it never does!) those voters are out of reach no matter how religious the D candidate is and how evil and immoral the R candidate is.

I really hope no one is taking what I said to mean that. That'd be dumb as hell. If anything, I thought I argued the opposite. Those voters are lost due to their adoption of the religion of the Republican party.

Your point about Protestantism helps prove the overall point though. Protestantism is a broad term that encompasses a gigantic variety of denominations and churches, some of which have very rigid organizational structures and some of which that have literally no structure at all. Due to this variety, I have yet to meet a white Protestant (and, in some cases, white Catholics) who hasn't gone "church shopping" to find a church that "suits" them. And when those churches teach something that goes against their political beliefs, guess what usually happens?

 

[Suikoguy]

Do they misspell all the time on purpose?

I wonder if it's the same reason Nigerian-like scam emails are the same way?

 

[RumbleHumble]

I was using the pope as an example. Religious thought leaders across denominations are losing credibility when their reflections clash with that of the right-wing thought bubble.

For instance, the Southern Baptist Convention recently denounced the Alt Right. None of that's going to sink in to the congregants who need to absorb that message the most.

There was a big schism about it if I remember correctly:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politic...-convention-alt-right-white-supremacy/530244/

 

[Plinko]

The Trump tax proposals are mindbogglingly stupid.

 

[Blader]

If the CBO's numbers aren't trustworthy, then we can't trust its numbers on how much AHCA/BCRA will yield in savings.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Would love to see the look on a hardcore trump supporters face when he finda out trump is raising his taxes.

 

[PBY]

Damn, this WH really has abolished the on-camera press briefings.

I wish the press would uniformly just say fuckit and turn on their cameras. I find this enormously frustrating.

 

[chadskin]

House Democrats are finally going after the settlement in May in the Magnitsky Act case against Prevezon, the company Natalia Veselnitskaya represented: https://democrats-judiciary.house.g... FRAUD SETTLEMENT, MEETING AT TRUMP TOWER.pdf

The CNN story at the time raised some concerns:

The trial was set to start on Monday, but late Friday night, federal prosecutors in New York announced they settled the case with Prevezon, the company accused of buying up "high-end commercial space and luxury apartments" with laundered money.

The abrupt conclusion has some involved in the trial wondering why this Russian investigation had been cut short.

"What most concerns me is: Has there been any political pressure applied in this?" asked Louise Shelley, an illicit finance expert who was set to testify in support of the US government on Tuesday.

Shelley — who founded George Mason University's Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center — said the alleged money launderers got off easy.

"I think they won something. There's no recognition of wrongdoing," she said.

The US Attorney's office did not respond to CNN's request for comment.

In the settlement, Prevezon and its business associates did not acknowledge any wrongdoing, and the government agreed to "release" them all from any future lawsuits in connection with this case.

The case against Prevezon was a civil matter, so the federal government's inherent goal was to recover money. That it did.

The $5.9 million settlement is three times the value of the $1.9 million in supposedly laundered money tied to funds stolen from the Russian state coffers. But it's far less than the value of Prevezon's real estate in Manhattan -- which Shelley estimates at $17 million -- that had been partially acquired with those allegedly laundered funds.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/13/world/prevezon-settlement/index.html

 

[RumbleHumble]

The Trump tax proposals are mindbogglingly stupid.

This is going to go well.

And among those in the middle class, almost a quarter would see their taxes go up, according to the TPC analysis. For households with annual incomes between $49,000 and $86,000, those facing a hike would see an average annual increase of $1,000.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...r-of-the-middle-class/?utm_term=.cf4dd24d6d75

 

[Plinko]

If the CBO's numbers aren't trustworthy, then we can't trust its numbers on how much AHCA/BCRA will yield in savings.

No, no, you can--those are correct, but anything negative about it is false.

 

[Autodidact]

"The savings are real, the losses are fake."