Supporters of the 45-year-old president have long maintained that Assad is the only man who can keep Syrias diverse sects from turning on each other, using examples of sectarian strife in neighboring Lebanon and Iraq to warn of the potential dangers if the president were to be toppled. But when the anti-regime protests broke out in February, Assads first tactic was a sectarian move: to discredit any peaceful popular revoltwhich started in poor, rural, Sunni regionsas a terrorist conspiracy led by Sunni religious extremists.
As demonstrations grew around the country in March and April, state television channels started reporting on how terrorists were killing civilians and policemen. The reports ignored the fact that any nonviolent demonstrations were occurring. Instead, the state news agency, SANA, reported that police had discovered large weapon caches in towns such as Deraa, where the international media was reporting mass pro-democracy protests.
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Assad hoped, a western diplomat in Damascus explained to me, that this rhetoric would scare Syrians into believing that he was the only man who could hold the delicate balance of Syrias competing sects intact, and he hinted repeatedly that his opponents were serving a foreign conspiracy to spread sectarian strife. His plan was to solidify his support among minority groups, such as Christians and Druze, by creating the specter of a Sunni extremist uprising. But, in fact, the rhetoric only served to alienate moderate Sunni Muslims, by labeling them as terrorists, into thinking along sectarian lines, the diplomat explained.
As the protests have grown, Assads second tacticrelying increasingly on his Alawite power base to crush pro-democracy protestshas naturally caused sectarian tension to grow still stronger. In addition to filling the top echelons of the security forces with loyal Alawites, Assad has also employed the services of the feared Shabbiha, a notorious Alawite paramilitary, who are accused of acting as unofficial enforcers for Assads regime.
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The opposition wants a neat revolution; but Syria is not Egypt. Assads violent crackdown and deliberately divisive rhetoric is fanning the flames of inter-group rivalries and score-settling, anddespite great efforts by peaceful protesters like Ranaquickly laying the foundation for even more sectarian bloodshed.
