whyamihere
Banned
Why do you guys do this to yourselves every few days.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
- Start date
- Status
Autodidact
Banned
When you get caught unawares, you want it not to happen again. Think of it as a coping mechanism.
TiredofWinning
Member
We need a massive supply of benzos to this thread tonight
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
It's in their contract.
Al Franken won by an incredibly narrow margin the year that Obama carried enormous coattails in 08. It is what it is.
One factor that hasn't recieved much attention in the post-mortem is I wonder how the Senate races of each of the respective states affected things.
Did turnout crater in Michigan because Dems didn't focus on spending money and turning out their base for a senate election? Ditto Feingold, who was considered to be a shoo-in for so long that the party didn't feel the need to invest resources into the state?
One factor that hasn't recieved much attention in the post-mortem is I wonder how the Senate races of each of the respective states affected things.
Did turnout crater in Michigan because Dems didn't focus on spending money and turning out their base for a senate election? Ditto Feingold, who was considered to be a shoo-in for so long that the party didn't feel the need to invest resources into the state?
Also, considering the seemingly enormous diminishing returns paid advertising seems to have, I think contesting all states - safe, swing, long shots - is a far better idea than concentrating all of the money into narrow paths to victory.
That's what the Republicans have been doing, and it works. There are many things to worry about in the 2018 and 2020 political landscapes, but I don't think fundraising will be one of them.
That's what the Republicans have been doing, and it works. There are many things to worry about in the 2018 and 2020 political landscapes, but I don't think fundraising will be one of them.
whyamihere
Banned
haha Ryan actually ran his worst race ever when he was running for VP in 2012!
Box of Kittens
Banned
A candidate with high unfavorable ratings who tried to run on how awful her opponent was lost by less than 70K votes in the states that made the difference when a negative story about her broke right before Election Day. Politics will never be the same again.
And before Bill Clinton was elected the conventional wisdom was that Republicans had an Electoral College Lock, as they called it, due to their ability to consistently win states like California, New Jersey, and Illinois.
No one actually knows what the landscape will look like in 2020. Maybe it'll be closely fought, or maybe Trump will be so unpopular we can win by running a ham sandwich. It's a ways off.
And before Bill Clinton was elected the conventional wisdom was that Republicans had an Electoral College Lock, as they called it, due to their ability to consistently win states like California, New Jersey, and Illinois.
No one actually knows what the landscape will look like in 2020. Maybe it'll be closely fought, or maybe Trump will be so unpopular we can win by running a ham sandwich. It's a ways off.
IggyChooChoo
Member
TBF, Franken was solely known as a comedian/media personality at that point and was a somewhat questionable candidate in his first-ever race. National Dems like Schumer really didn't want him to run. Obviously it's a totally different story now. His book gets into this stuff, although it never clears up exactly why Obama was so distant in the '08 race.
whyamihere
Banned
Always.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Paul Ryan was only saved by riding the coattails of the Vice Presidential candidate that year, Paul Ryan.
(Though the Romney ticket did worse so that joke doesn't totally work, oh well)
I'd be interested in crunching the data on this, but I wouldn't be surprised if this is pretty common. When a politician gets a national profile, easy to paint them as disconnected from the interests of their local constituents. Of course, pretty tiny sample size to work with.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Exactly. There's real benefit to spending money on races but that spending stops moving the needle quicker than most people would expect. That's not to say you invest the same amount in each race, but we should be spreading our resources out more, which helps in both the short and long term.
Aaron Strife
Banned
whyamihere
Banned
HAPPY OSSOFF DAY THE WORLD IS ENDING
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I thought he was holding out for more cuts to the other protections like minimum benefits, not medicaid. His stance was that it is "Obamacare Light" which isn't really medicaid related
Aaron Strife
Banned
Typical whyamihere whyamihering all over the place.
Four_Chamber
Member
Looking forward to hopefully a nice Ossoff win tomorrow night. A win would be awfully nice- I'm hoping the Ossoff ground game makes a big difference.
Aaron Strife
Banned
My hope is that Ossoff outruns the polls like he did last time. Iirc the highest any poll put him at for the primary was 46% and he finished a hair ahead of 48%.
Edit:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...th_district_special_election_-6198.html#polls
45% and the average was 42.8%. He ran ahead by over five points.
Of course, the dynamics were completely different, but hopefully that speaks to his ground game and he'll see a similar boost tomorrow night.
Related - Jamelle Bouie (@Slate Chief Political Correspondent. @CBSNews Political Analyst) tweeted about the classic Spidey story Kraven's Last Hunt recently:
https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/875921383674523648
I'm not terribly worried about Michigan flipping back (at least in the near term)...it was insanely close, it didn't get enough attention in the campaign, etc... The 2016 results should jolt it back to blue for at least another cycle or two before it eventually becomes an actual red state.
Wisconsin is far more worrisome because that was a case of voter suppression fuckery succeeding beyond their wildest dreams. If we can't reverse that ...stop it from spreading ...
Wisconsin is far more worrisome because that was a case of voter suppression fuckery succeeding beyond their wildest dreams. If we can't reverse that ...stop it from spreading ...
RustyNails
Member
Looking forward to Nancy Pelosi Agenda finally taking hold in GA-6.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Hopefully Ossoff wins and Pelosi walks on stage and assumes direct control of GA-6
Autodidact
Banned
That Pelosi reign just won't let up.
VendettaRed07
Member
If I remember correctly there was an article posted on here that their strategy in Michigan was purposefully ignoring it and not setting up any infrastructure in order to scare the GOP away from thinking they could contest it because it was so safe.
Yes, people working in one of the most important elections in our lifetime were that stupid.
whyamihere
Banned
There's also a case to be made that Obama's numbers in Michigan in 08 and 12 were inflated from the crash and then fell Let Detroit Go Bankrupt.
aspiegamer
Member
Short memories in that state, apparently. I was extremely wrong when I thought the Flint thing would turn MI blue for a decade+. Apparently you can literally and deliberately poison the public's drinking water with lead and have your party rewarded for it. Fuck this country. Not even a "oh, a republican was accidentally in power when the disaster broke" situation! It's an actual 1:1 "they did this and then that happened" and still apparently meant nothing. Black vote was even down!
Box of Kittens
Banned
I don't want to minimize the impact of voter suppression, but it's not actually clear that it is what flipped Wisconsin. The study claiming it prevented 200K people from voting has been criticized. Certainly Wisconsin was subject to the same patterns seen elsewhere in the Midwest, like the strong movement to the right among communities near the Mississippi River.
What do you mean?
Autodidact
Banned
Presidents can only pardon federal charges, not state ones.
Interesting...did not realize that.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Aww but shucks, that Rick Snyder is just so lovable and moderate, just like his buddy Scott Walker.
Walker, Snyder, Pence, Kasich, Rauner, Corbett. Going across the Midwest between 2010 and 2014 is just a collection of faux moderate shitheels elected by hysterical white people. At least Pence and Corbett are gone, although in Pence's case for the worse.
Autodidact
Banned
A moderate Republican puts lead in your water.
An extreme Republican puts oil in your water.
~~~Bless the moderate darlings~~~
Aaron Strife
Banned
Seriously the way any Republican has their balls fondled (ask the President for the female equivalent of this phrase) by the (((liberal))) media every time they step out of line from the GOP orthodoxy (when 99% of the time they don't act on it) is fucking embarrassing and probably single-handedly responsible for all of our current problems.
Like when every Democratic Senator started coming out in favor of same-sex marriage and the media would tut tut at the holdouts, whereas any Republican Senator (which maybe ended up being like 2 or 3?) had a fucking parade thrown in their honor for bravely saying they support it because their nephew is gay but it should be a state's rights issue or some shit.
Btw when Democrats take back everything they should pass the Equality Act and roll in the Respect for Marriage Act. Codify that shit in case SCOTUS ever has an antigay majority.
whyamihere
Banned
I'm so glad GA6 will be over in less than 24 hours
Aaron Strife
Banned
If Ossoff loses I won't be.
Would rather suffer with the anticipation than deal with liberal hand-wringing for two weeks.
A Serious Man
Member
What a wonderful world it would be if all the inevitable hand-wringing was limited to two weeks.
whyamihere
Banned
This is so funny to imagine Trump saying this.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah, well I can imagine him saying this:
"News traveled slowly," a-yup, that was it. Fucking bigoted moron.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Juneteenth should be a holiday. Democrats should run on adding some holidays. I can't imagine who that wouldn't be popular with except some shitty business people but even they should like it because they can sell more shit for it.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
neurosisxeno
Member
Convenient that nobody has pointed out he won pretty handily in 2014. When Democrats got basically slaughtered, and he refused to embrace the strategy of "Obama? Never heard of him!" that a lot of Democrats were embracing. He actually campaigned on the Obama administration--and the Minnesota Governors--accomplishments and did pretty damn well.
IggyChooChoo
Member
That is a nice piece of both irony and courage.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Ossoff loses by 1 point is my prediction.
nature boy
Member
If Dems can't win an affluent District that doesn't really like the President, then I have no expectations regarding winning the House in 2018
Dems need a W, not a "close enough, this is huge for 2018"
Dems need a W, not a "close enough, this is huge for 2018"
balladofwindfishes
Member
If Ossoff's 1-2% margin loss is applied through 2018, Democrats still win a comfortable majority
nature boy
Member
Yes, but I think some enthusiasm necessary for 2018 is lost if Ossoff doesn't pull it.
And who knows what happens until late 2018
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