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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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I think this Ossoff race turned into a referendum for the election for a lot of people. Him losing should curb anyone's enthusiasm, unless they live in this district and wanted a Democrat win. Someone in PA being discouraged from 2018 by this would be ridiculous.Yes, but I think some enthusiasm necessary for 2018 is lost if Ossoff doesn't pull it.
And who knows what happens until late 2018
Bossoff or Godsoff if he wins?Has ossoff lost yet? His new name will be tossoff.
balladofwindfishes
Member
We're a year and a half away from midterms. Nobody is going to remember Ossoff or this race by then.Yes, but I think some enthusiasm necessary for 2018 is lost if Ossoff doesn't pull it.
And who knows what happens until late 2018
A lot of pressure is being put on this race, that I don't think is warranted.
cartoon_soldier
Member
If Ossoff's 1-2% margin loss is applied through 2018, Democrats still win a comfortable majority
GA-6 doesn't tell us much about the midterms.
What will happen is if Ossoff loses, Dem recruitment will take a hit, while GOP recruitment will boom because people will believe that Trump's unpopularity doesn't mean Republican leaning districts will vote for the Democrat.
Roland_Gunner
Member
GA-6 doesn't tell us much about the midterms.
What will happen is if Ossoff loses, Dem recruitment will take a hit, while GOP recruitment will boom because people will believe that Trump's unpopularity doesn't mean Republican leaning districts will vote for the Democrat.
If we understand that special elections have limited predictive value for the mid-terms I'm sure people thinking about spending a year of their life running for office have the same data.
neurosisxeno
Member
Ossoff should be fine. I expect it to be within 1 point, but I would like to see him win just to light a fire under the Democratic Party.
Yes, but I think some enthusiasm necessary for 2018 is lost if Ossoff doesn't pull it.
And who knows what happens until late 2018
Barring a massively embarrassing career-ending loss today, Ossoff will have to run again in 2018 anyway, so that enthusiasm will come right back!
Greigor The Fellhand
Member
today will be interesting either way this election goes. I'm sure Trump will have 2-3 tweets about ossoff whether he wins or loses
Interesting...did not realize that.
Yep, it's why everyone is interested in the prosecutors from NY, and why firing Preet Bharara was such a shock.
As to GA, I think Handel will eek it out.
shinra-bansho
Member
The never ending special election.
nature boy
Member
Yoni Appelbaum‏Verified account
@YAppelbaum
@RosieGray asked Steve Bannon why White House briefings are now off camera. He
texted back: "Sean got fatter.
LOL, Bannon is back
balladofwindfishes
Member
The UK and France changed up their entire government in the time we take to elect one man.
The bad news and dead heat will live on forever in our hearts.I'm so glad GA6 will be over in less than 24 hours
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Can we use the same criteria for getting rid of Spicer to get rid of Trump? He's MUCH fatter.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I think my only disappointment will be if Ossoff loses by more than 1.5%, which is what Trump won by in that area.
Move along, nothing to see here.
Bradd Jaffy‏Verified account @BraddJaffy
Trump's FBI director nominee removed reference to case involving Russian government from law firm bio http://cnn.it/2sLgBOh via @KFILE
Move along, nothing to see here.
tedrotheredro
Member
Move along, nothing to see here.
I thought this was an interesting quote about the energy company executive who he represented:
"The executive is an American citizen and lives in the United States," she continued. "During the course of the dispute, the Russian government sought to exert leverage against this executive and the company by initiating a criminal investigation in Russia against him. Chris and the firm were engaged to handle the U.S. legal issues that arose from the situation."
Could this be Tillerson? They couldn't be that crazy, though....could they?
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Approval for Trump among Republicans is now 72%. Isn't that the point of no return/when the GOP should start jumping ship? It's only going to crater from here.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/20/steep-drop-among-republican-support-for-donald-tru/
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/20/steep-drop-among-republican-support-for-donald-tru/
They're not jumping ship. This has become increasingly clear.Approval for Trump among Republicans is now 72%. Isn't that the point of no return/when the GOP should start jumping ship? It's only going to crater from here.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/20/steep-drop-among-republican-support-for-donald-tru/
Yep, it's why everyone is interested in the prosecutors from NY, and why firing Preet Bharara was such a shock.
As to GA, I think Handel will eek it out.
Yeah, I think Schneiderman is investigating Manafort, isn't he? In which case, any charges that arise from there also couldn't be pardoned by Trump?
If Ossof loses, don't think it means anything. But no moral victories - it's still a massive failure.
Also - I'm so so so done with Russia.
Doesn't mean anything, just a massive failure for the party and base. lol
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Anyone else see the ad for Paul Ryan's opponent in 2018? Ryan's going to be in some trouble:
https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/877161989956653057
https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/877161989956653057
Yes.Doesn't mean anything, just a massive failure for the party and base. lol
"A random sample of 1,117 adults..." that is not a particularly reliable poll.Approval for Trump among Republicans is now 72%. Isn't that the point of no return/when the GOP should start jumping ship? It's only going to crater from here.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/20/steep-drop-among-republican-support-for-donald-tru/
They're not jumping ship. This has become increasingly clear.
Support among Rs has gone down about 12 points in a month.
"A random sample of 1,117 adults..." that is not a particularly reliable poll.
Sure jan.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Huh?"A random sample of 1,117 adults..." that is not a particularly reliable poll.
I mean his numbers are trash. But I'm convinced congressional Rs are just going to go down with this ship.Support among Rs has gone down about 12 points in a month.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Anyone else see the ad for Paul Ryan's opponent in 2018? Ryan's going to be in some trouble:
https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/877161989956653057
I love the ad.
No worries, though. I'm sure republicans will spread some fake trash around about him to make sure he has no chance.
"A random sample of 1,117 adults..." that is not a particularly reliable poll.
Actually it is.
Anyone else see the ad for Paul Ryan's opponent in 2018? Ryan's going to be in some trouble:
https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/877161989956653057
Yeah, it's a great ad. Interesting that he's using the same phrasing as Hillary did during the campaign - "We can do so much more", "We're so much stronger if we carry them with us", and "We can do so much better, together".
Regarding GA-06, Nate Silver has an interesting article up on 538
Why The Georgia Special Election Matters
Heres the thing, though: Sometimes dumb things matter if everyone agrees that they matter. Congressional Republicans could use a signal of any kind right now to coordinate their strategy around two vexing issues: first, their health care bill, and second, their behavior toward President Trump and the investigations surrounding him.
And in the final paragraph
In either case, the narrative that emerges from the Georgia 6 runoff will lack nuance and will oversimplify complex evidence.
Which is undoubtedly going to be true.
IggyChooChoo
Member
Bannon making fat jokes -- is Priebus going to be calling people alcoholics next?LOL, Bannon is back
balladofwindfishes
Member
Which is undoubtedly going to be true.
This is the single most spot on sentence for this race that ever existed
"A random sample of 1,117 adults..." that is not a particularly reliable poll.
Yeah I know right, there's like 350 million people in the US. That's way more than 1117.
IggyChooChoo
Member
Someone the other day, I forget who, was pointing out that the generic, lame, forgettable democratic slogan from 2006 in which we picked up 31 seats was "together, America can do better."Yeah, it's a great ad. Interesting that he's using the same phrasing as Hillary did during the campaign - "We can do so much more", "We're so much stronger if we carry them with us", and "We can do so much better, together".
Beer Monkey
Member
I mean his numbers are trash. But I'm convinced congressional Rs are just going to go down with this ship.
The 2018 election doesn't feel real enough to them yet.
fredrancour
Member
That's how polling works. The sample size needed to get solid predictions is typically a tiny fraction of the population. There's also a lot of well-researched math around guessing the limits of your own data and analyses"A random sample of 1,117 adults..." that is not a particularly reliable poll.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Regarding GA-06, Nate Silver has an interesting article up on 538
Why The Georgia Special Election Matters
And in the final paragraph
Which is undoubtedly going to be true.
This seems like a very good summary of the implications of GA-06. Practically Ossoff losing by one or two points will have very little impact on how the Democrats approach the next 18 months leading up to the mid-terms. Him winning could provide elected Republicans with a justification to break with Trump and further bog down his agenda.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Approval for Trump among Republicans is now 72%. Isn't that the point of no return/when the GOP should start jumping ship? It's only going to crater from here.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/20/steep-drop-among-republican-support-for-donald-tru/
This is where GA-6 matters.
if Rs are winning house seat with Trump at 36% approval, why would they abandon him?
Polls last couple of days haven't been kind for Ossoff.
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/0...ossoff-and-handel-deadlocked-in-georgias-6th/
The shooting thing I had allueded to yesterday helping Handel
The poll showed a majority of voters who had yet to cast their ballots said the recent shootings had no effect on their decision. About one-third of election-day voters said the attack would make them ”more likely" to cast their ballots, and most of those were Republican.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Someone the other day, I forget who, was pointing out that the generic, lame, forgettable democratic slogan from 2006 in which we picked up 31 seats was "together, America can do better."
I'm not convinced slogans mean anything any more.
BlastProcessing
Member
I think my only disappointment will be if Ossoff loses by more than 1.5%, which is what Trump won by in that area.
Move along, nothing to see here.
I was just thinking how odd it is that there hasn't been an official roll out for Wray yet.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
I was just thinking how odd it is that there hasn't been an official roll out for Wray yet.
Don't think he was a serious pick, just a flailing attempt to distract from Comey
balladofwindfishes
Member
Polls last couple of days haven't been kind for Ossoff.
One poll had him losing (within the MoE)
And some mediocre ones showing them tied
These aren't outside the range of polls that would exist if he was in the lead by 1-2 points
I'm not convinced slogans mean anything any more.
How can you say that on the back of Make America Great Again?
It's arguably one of the most successful campaign slogans of modern history.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
"A random sample of 1,117 adults..." that is not a particularly reliable poll.
Sarcasm, right?
Fenderputty
Banned
Ossoff loses by 1 point is my prediction.
On average how have Dems performed compared to cartoon_soldier's pessimism?
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
How can you say that on the back of Make America Great Again?
It's arguably one of the most successful campaign slogans of modern history.
Because I think he could have had just about anything on that hat and the underlying racism/sexism would have carried him to the presidency.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Seriously the way any Republican has their balls fondled (ask the President for the female equivalent of this phrase) by the (((liberal))) media every time they step out of line from the GOP orthodoxy (when 99% of the time they don't act on it) is fucking embarrassing and probably single-handedly responsible for all of our current problems.
Like when every Democratic Senator started coming out in favor of same-sex marriage and the media would tut tut at the holdouts, whereas any Republican Senator (which maybe ended up being like 2 or 3?) had a fucking parade thrown in their honor for bravely saying they support it because their nephew is gay but it should be a state's rights issue or some shit.
Btw when Democrats take back everything they should pass the Equality Act and roll in the Respect for Marriage Act. Codify that shit in case SCOTUS ever has an antigay majority.
Walker is so transparent too. Is it an election year? Time to make a big show of how moderate he is with some ultimately pretty meaningless gestures. Then the moment he's re-elected it's time to take a hard turn to the right. See the passage of right-to-work in 2015.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Because I think he could have had just about anything on that hat and the underlying racism/sexism would have carried him to the presidency.
I don't really agree
MAGA works because
- It's catchy and easy to remember
- Flexible. It can be adjusted to "make cars great again" "make our military great again" and so on, while still being part of the overall brand of "great again." Whenever I see ____ great again, I instantly think of Trump.
- It can follow in speeches from literally everything, while still sounding natural. "We're taking our country back from 'them' and we'll make America great again"
- It attacks Obama at the same time as propping Trump up. America is terrible right now because of "him", and only I can fix it, but said in just four words.
It's actually a really well designed slogan.
One-third of election-day Republican voters saying they were more compelled to vote because of the baseball shooting is exactly the kind of thing I imagine happening. Particularly ironic considering their party's stance on gun control in the first place!
Meh, they'd probably have voted anyway
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