People do reverse mortgages and the like to squeeze equity from their house, and they will definitely benefit from rising housing prices there. It's not just where they live. It's certainly a bad idea to use it as your sole investment vehicle, but people are stupid about saving money, even people who make more than enough (cue that "even middle class people couldn't come up with.$500" article.)
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
- Start date
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People do reverse mortgages and the like to squeeze equity from their house, and they will definitely benefit from rising housing prices there. It's not just where they live. It's certainly a bad idea to use it as your sole investment vehicle, but people are stupid about saving money, even people who make more than enough (cue that "even middle class people couldn't come up with.$500" article.)
Poodlestrike
Banned
Portman is secure in having 6 years to recover and also that the Ohio Democratic Party is run by credulous morons, apparently.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Ohio will also probably be further right by 2022, and if there's a Dem president Portman will probably be fine.
Autodidact
Banned
Good. Maybe Ohio will finally lose its status as the holiest of swing states. I've grown sick of hearing about it every election. (No offense to Ohioans.)
55% is still close
And if they have nothing then that means we are getting the House bill and things are worse than they were pre-ACA
Is either Schweitzer or Bullock popular enough to consider a run at Daines? Circumstances aside, all of them were able to win reelection.
TestOfTide
Banned
Because he got the additional medicaid cuts that he wanted.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
How do you work so hard for the people in your state as part of the GOP, put so much time in while also living under a religion that preaches peace and good will only to do everything in your power to crush them under your fucking foot so that millionaires can get an extra $50k a year that they're not even going to notice in their accounts anyway? How do you become that evil and how are there SO FUCKING MANY OF THEM?
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
The GOP is good at winning elections and politics, but when it comes to them governing, they fail.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Because only the rich are truly pious, and if the poor would just come back to Christ, their coffers would overflow with money
Once you believe that the poor are only poor because they're lazy or sinners, it's actually pretty easy to do harm to them and feel like you're justified and actually helping them.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Yeah you did
whyamihere
Banned
Hi, I'm whyamihere and why I'm here is to tell YOU about things to look forward to tomorrow!
1. What's the EV going to look like?
Unclear! Two things we know are probably true:
- Ossoff will win a lot less of the vote than he did in the early vote in round 1.
- The early vote will be a significantly larger % of the total vote than round 1.
If Ossoff is only up a few points in the early vote, he'll lose. If he's up like 10 points, get ready for a long night. If he's up in the high 50s, low 60s, he'll win.
Do not freak out when Ossoff does not do as well as round 1 early vote. Really.
2. What places should I be looking, county wise?
There are three (parts) of counties that make up GA-6: DeKalb, Fulton, and Cobb. Cobb went blue for the first time in years in 2016, but not the part of Cobb in GA-6. Save for the veeeeeeeeeeery few precincts on the western edge of the district, Cobb is the most conservative part of the district.
DeKalb, on the other hand, is the most reliably blue part of the district, even though it's the smallest part of the district overall. If there is huge turnout from DeKalb as well as big Ossoff numbers, that could overcome any deficits in Cobb.
Fulton is both the largest part of the district and the swing part of the district. Ossoff probably needs to win a little under 50% here if he intends to clear 50% overall because you'd expect high D numbers out of DeKalb (but lower ones out of Cobb).
3. Is all hope lost if Ossoff loses?
No. Though if he loses by more than 2%, I do not think the environment is right to take back the house in 2018.
4. When do polls close?
7pm EST. You should get the first results by 7:45pm, judging by the first round.
5. Is this bad new for Kay Hagan?
1. What's the EV going to look like?
Unclear! Two things we know are probably true:
- Ossoff will win a lot less of the vote than he did in the early vote in round 1.
- The early vote will be a significantly larger % of the total vote than round 1.
If Ossoff is only up a few points in the early vote, he'll lose. If he's up like 10 points, get ready for a long night. If he's up in the high 50s, low 60s, he'll win.
Do not freak out when Ossoff does not do as well as round 1 early vote. Really.
2. What places should I be looking, county wise?
There are three (parts) of counties that make up GA-6: DeKalb, Fulton, and Cobb. Cobb went blue for the first time in years in 2016, but not the part of Cobb in GA-6. Save for the veeeeeeeeeeery few precincts on the western edge of the district, Cobb is the most conservative part of the district.
DeKalb, on the other hand, is the most reliably blue part of the district, even though it's the smallest part of the district overall. If there is huge turnout from DeKalb as well as big Ossoff numbers, that could overcome any deficits in Cobb.
Fulton is both the largest part of the district and the swing part of the district. Ossoff probably needs to win a little under 50% here if he intends to clear 50% overall because you'd expect high D numbers out of DeKalb (but lower ones out of Cobb).
3. Is all hope lost if Ossoff loses?
No. Though if he loses by more than 2%, I do not think the environment is right to take back the house in 2018.
4. When do polls close?
7pm EST. You should get the first results by 7:45pm, judging by the first round.
5. Is this bad new for Kay Hagan?
This reminds of the discussion on The Weeds about a border wall. Maybe they should let us do their policy for them.
The real wall is in our hearts.
How does socialism make you feel?
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
In other news, Jake Tapper dropped some Superman knowledge today.
Here is the thread.
https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/876815765432926209
Here is the thread.
https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/876815765432926209
tl;dr I don't agree with socialism because I am an introvert and I don't want to have to socialize with people all the time, that's what that means right
As fine a definition as any on our journey to linguistic nihilism.
Autodidact
Banned
As they probably should be at this point. GA and AZ might very well flip (I'd bet on the latter), but even with AZ, Democrats will still need PA and MI. If they win GA, they only need to win PA.
And North Carolina wouldn't be the biggest surprise. We won it once, though it has gotten nastier in the last two years or so.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
I completely agree with your conclusion but there are a lot of people who view their home's value as money in their hands. Even though you're correct that they'll never "use" it.
As for homeless people, conservative areas just ship them out. Any homeless people in North Mississippi get shooed up to Memphis like stray animals. It's actually one of the grosser, less mentioned elements of rural conservative life.
Yup.
Its hard to vilify people as the reason for your problems when you meet and see them as normal people.
Part of the reason why gay marriage was able to turn around in approval so much was people bravely came out of the closet. Then everyone realized that they have a gay family member, coworker, or neighbor and they weren't stalking the streets dressed as the village people.
Its not as easy with race obviously because you have culture, religion, economic class and crime all wrapped up in it.
Autodidact
Banned
Yeah, the homophobic attacks and dog whistles don't work nearly as well as they did even five years ago. Gay marriage was one of the BIGGEST campaign issues in 2004. Last year, scarcely mentioned. This country made an amazingly quick turnaround on that front because of the reasons cited above.
whyamihere
Banned
Paul Ryan gets a challenger.
http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/lo...cle_2b0ee469-56b9-5ae1-91d8-4fd4763a2431.html
WI-1 was a 52/47 Romney district and a 53/42 Trump district (Obama won it 51/48 in 08 though I'm unsure if that's for the old lines or the current lines).
http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/lo...cle_2b0ee469-56b9-5ae1-91d8-4fd4763a2431.html
WI-1 was a 52/47 Romney district and a 53/42 Trump district (Obama won it 51/48 in 08 though I'm unsure if that's for the old lines or the current lines).
neurosisxeno
Member
PA/MI/WI was a Trump fluke, odds are by 2020 they are Blue again.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
I don't think so? I think the only WI districts Clinton won were Madison and Milwaukee. Are you confusing it with Paulsen's district next door?
TestOfTide
Banned
It's good that we are already starting to see a lot of challengers pop up.
Perhaps we can start using the Street Fighter reference every time a new one comes up?
Perhaps we can start using the Street Fighter reference every time a new one comes up?
Autodidact
Banned
Eh, he represents an R+5 district, which would be vulnerable in a wave, but he also has incumbency advantage and a certain undeserved stature. Though the PVI makes it look deceptively easy, it wouldn't be unless we had a massive wave and excellent candidate.
I'd love to have a Portillo moment...
I'd love to have a Portillo moment...
whyamihere
Banned
I meant 53/42 Trump, sorry.
That and you can't campaign on gay marriage destroying society when almost half the nation legalized it and weren't facing locusts or rivers of blood.
Plus republicans figured out that if you let it go you take away a major issue for people to head to the polls and vote about.
People don't get excited for a vote on the importance of keeping the death tax in place but when you take away the ability for your friend or neighbor to get equal access to heathcare and the ability to marriage people show up.
Its why I almost wish democrats would figure out a way to loosen up on gun control or figure out a better way to market it. They would steal an issue that has become a cultural one. A GOP rep can't go and tell an out of work person living in a rural area that the democrats want to destroy his heritage or take his guns. Then they have to explain why they are against food stamps or why they are against a living wage.
whyamihere
Banned
Ralston on Rosen.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Ryan actually already had a challenger but he was a hot mess, some goon from Ohio. This guy seems legit though.
RIP Spicey
Ralston, even though he has a very narrow focus (Nevada politics) is probably the best pundit in the country. IIRC he was the only major nonpartisan voice in 2010 saying Reid would win.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
Tillerson wants to do what now?
They better be. I went back to 270towin (kind of hurts) and you start to realize Democrats are fucked if they can't get those states back. It's bad enough that OH and IA seem to be lost forever. If Dems can't get PA/MI/WI back then they need to make gains in tne south and AZ. Good luck with that...
I'm reminded that 2020 is going to be really tough. I don't even want to know right now what Trump will try to do to further complicate odds for Democrats...
whyamihere
Banned
Okay.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
He did say that he wanted to build a wall.
whyamihere
Banned
EDIT: I read that as Reid wall, lmao
AntraxSuicide
Banned
What a loser.
This is why I want some slight accelerationism in blue states to really blow open the gap between red states and blue states. Kansas is a shithole and CA is better, but we're still not at the point apparently that people notice or care enough.
It'll be interesting to see how this goes with Congress considering how unanimous the bill with Russia sanctions were as well as both parties agreeing on Russia hacking.
TestOfTide
Banned
PA was definitely somewhat of a fluke, because Hillary actually did better than Obama's 2012 numbers in the suburbs, She only lost because Trump got ridiculous numbers in the rural parts of PA.
MI was close enough that I think it can easily flip back with the right kind of turnout.
WI I'm less optimistic about though.
Also, you have many options besides PA/WI/MI for flips, such as:
- PA + FL
- PA + AZ + MI
- FL + AZ
- MI + GA + AZ
Autodidact
Banned
We'll need to expend some resources in Minnesota, which stayed blue but by a way closer margin than it should have.
TestOfTide
Banned
All the more reason to have Al Franken as the VP on the ticket.
If rural PA shows up next time then it's gonna go red again.
Also the fact that dems need to spend more money just to keep MN of all places safe speaks volumes towards how much the party needs to do to win. They've gotta go after so much. It's going to be a formidable task and 2016 changed the dynamics of how you run for office forever. Politics as we knew it got curb stomped last year. We have nothing to compare this to.
Also the fact that dems need to spend more money just to keep MN of all places safe speaks volumes towards how much the party needs to do to win. They've gotta go after so much. It's going to be a formidable task and 2016 changed the dynamics of how you run for office forever. Politics as we knew it got curb stomped last year. We have nothing to compare this to.
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