shinra-bansho
Member
Lmfao. Yes this is clearly Pelosi's fault.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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Kid Kamikaze10
Member
Hot take: these races are more about strategies for 2018. And to me, they say get local and get real/fired up.
But none of that matters if voter supression gains more momentum
But none of that matters if voter supression gains more momentum
Autodidact
Banned
Yep. High turnout on your side works better if you depress the other side's turnout. The national attention this race got pushed Republicans to the polls. The only two scenarios that might have gone our way are (1) Ossoff winning in the jungle primary or (2) the whole race being quieter.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Yo SCOTUS can we just....accelerate that Wisconsin case?
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Stink of this is going to take a while to wear off but Rome wasn't sacked in a day.
I think KS and SC are good signs that the GOP base is at least somewhat complacent with a President Trump.
They'll turn out if they get wind of a national focus shifting toward them like with Montana and GA-06 but the focus in 2018 will be too diluted for that to play the same kind of role.
They'll turn out if they get wind of a national focus shifting toward them like with Montana and GA-06 but the focus in 2018 will be too diluted for that to play the same kind of role.
Unkl3 J0se
Neo Member
Doesn't that also apply to democrats?
whyamihere
Banned
Agreed.
Yep. Unfortunately the attention galvanized republicans as well.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Even better if they also complain about the lack of support for Parnell in SC-05!
smokeymicpot
Beat EviLore at pool.
WH senior official, in a text just now: "They haven't figured out how to beat Trump"
https://twitter.com/costareports/status/877346380506841088
https://twitter.com/costareports/status/877346380506841088
Autodidact
Banned
Of course they ignore those exit polls/articles showing that suburban voters waffled on Quist because of Bernie's endorsement. If we'd run a Berniecrat in a rich white district in GA, I guarantee he wouldn't have approached 47-49% of the vote.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
I will say that I'm wary of using Macron as any evidence for or against "centrism" in the US, just because the political landscape is so different
Called it!
JetBlackPanda
Member
I'm real close guys.. I can't handle these loses anymore.
I've always been interested in politics and stuff but it's past that now. It's beyond reason.
They are still winning even with Trump in office and horrible candidates if they ran decent candidates they would dominate even more.
I can't get invested anymore. It makes ZERO difference.
Yeah yeah I'm THAT guy right now but it's really getting to me lately.
I've always been interested in politics and stuff but it's past that now. It's beyond reason.
They are still winning even with Trump in office and horrible candidates if they ran decent candidates they would dominate even more.
I can't get invested anymore. It makes ZERO difference.
Yeah yeah I'm THAT guy right now but it's really getting to me lately.
VendettaRed07
Member
They could have adequately funded several different races instead of bank rolling one specific race and hyping it to a national level turning it into some sort of national referendum. If the hype hurt Ossoff by the party focusing on it so much then yeah that's a mistake on their part.
If we want to have "moral victories" based on improved margins then spreading the money out more and not dumping everything into one race likely would have done that. It also makes the democrats look worse here for still losing despite what they put into it.
The lefties have no problem using Europe as evidence for socialism in the US.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
There is nothing happening right now that would lead to a big shift to the Democrats. Republicans have their majority, just won the presidency, there is nothing happening with Trump that would cause an actual shift, and don't underestimate how much people are getting dumber instead of smarter.
The Republicans right now have the benefit of the doubt from voters, their policies have to backfire in an undeniable way for a real shift to happen. Beyond an unpopular war (unlikely) or an economic crisis, it will take time. Even with an economic downturn they would still get the benefit of the doubt and probably get more support to take action on taxes and such, like Bush.
Democrats need to keep their house in order, and be very active on tailing every policy and carrying the message about those policies' negative impacts along the way to everyone impacted.
The Republicans right now have the benefit of the doubt from voters, their policies have to backfire in an undeniable way for a real shift to happen. Beyond an unpopular war (unlikely) or an economic crisis, it will take time. Even with an economic downturn they would still get the benefit of the doubt and probably get more support to take action on taxes and such, like Bush.
Democrats need to keep their house in order, and be very active on tailing every policy and carrying the message about those policies' negative impacts along the way to everyone impacted.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
What the fuck does this mean?
I mean if it's better for your personal health to drop back a bit then do it (just don't forget to still vote at least!)
Autodidact
Banned
Honey (I say comfortingly not condescendingly), don't feel that way. We just came within striking distance in two red districts in two red states. The Democrats will learn from these races. Right now a win or loss makes no difference because Republicans still have majorities, but in 2018, any race that was remotely close in 2016 is ripe for the picking.
It's not to the level of Hillary, but yeah. It does seem like too many people were expecting Ossoff to win instead of it being a toss-up.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
People in here are saying "I'm so tired of Russia," but tha investigation may be the only thing hurting the GOP in the near future. The AHCA is going to kick the can down the road by phasing things out after the next elections. I'm not certain that ends up hurting GOP too much until after 2020.
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
It is very hopeful to think that dilution of Republican attention in 2017 will prevent outcomes like this, but it remains to be seen whether the media predicting a Democratic wave will paradoxically energize Republican voters on a national level and allow them to hold on.
The question right now is if funneling Republicans into a separate information ecosystem, wherein the negative barbs of the mainstream media and Washington establishment, will allow them to assume something like a permanently energized state. They were already reliable voters, but it seems like we may be entering a state where the Republican floor is even higher, relative to their share of the population, than it has ever been, because anytime something goes wrong, they only have to hear about it through a filter that softens or utterly inverts it. In some ways, being so reprehensible that people can only justify reflexively supporting you by not engaging with mainstream sources of information at all, is a pretty brilliant political strategy.
The question right now is if funneling Republicans into a separate information ecosystem, wherein the negative barbs of the mainstream media and Washington establishment, will allow them to assume something like a permanently energized state. They were already reliable voters, but it seems like we may be entering a state where the Republican floor is even higher, relative to their share of the population, than it has ever been, because anytime something goes wrong, they only have to hear about it through a filter that softens or utterly inverts it. In some ways, being so reprehensible that people can only justify reflexively supporting you by not engaging with mainstream sources of information at all, is a pretty brilliant political strategy.
The ACA didn't take effect until 2014 but it sure as hell still mattered in 2010.
JetBlackPanda
Member
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
That's because a black man was behind it, and it galvanized the racist GOP base.
Emerson
May contain jokes =>
I think that's fair aside from the fact that these people were also incredibly quick to say the exact same thing about the recent UK election proving their point.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Vox piece:
https://www.vox.com/2017/6/20/15839452/georgia-special-election-results-ossoff-handel
Less an argument for Bernie style socialism being an "obvious winner" than that the Democrats just don't have a coherent message at the moment which is...well, yes, that is an enormous problem. How the hell do we develop a unified, loud message?
https://www.vox.com/2017/6/20/15839452/georgia-special-election-results-ossoff-handel
Less an argument for Bernie style socialism being an "obvious winner" than that the Democrats just don't have a coherent message at the moment which is...well, yes, that is an enormous problem. How the hell do we develop a unified, loud message?
No, it's because it was a midterm year and that's just what happens.
I mean BOTH SIDES(!) can use Europe between Corbs and Macron. I'm cool with whatever keeps them involved and energized. I don't have a problem with people wanting to push the party left and others wanting to keep it not quite as left, as that's a primary thing people vote on in their party. It's more if people take their ball and go home after the fact that's the issue, which I guess is sort of the Bernie stuff in a nutshell, but yeah, that's the part that can't happen.
Poodlestrike
Banned
#HotTake: This demonstrates the crippling weakness a lack of personal responsibility, empathy, and critical thinking amongst voters has introduced into our system. Democracies aren't designed around a populace that can't think for themselves, feels no concern for the lives of others, and if they get called out for either of the above shifts blame. The real core of GOP voter suppression lives there.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Someone on Twitter said the mood inside congress right now is that they need to get the AHCA through because they're afraid the Russia stuff is going to blow up soon and make things even more impossible
An economic populist message. That's what Dems need.
The usernames of both of you are way to close to each other. I kept thinking you were the same person but you avatar was sometimes on and sometimes off LOL
To be fair, if they spent less money in GA-06 and still lost, people would complain "why didn't you spend more money here?!". I guess they just need to spend more money everywhere?
Autodidact
Banned
Trump has even less knowledge about politics than Congressional Republicans. He's gotten complacent, but many Republicans feel scared, as the article about Martha McSally (a prime pickup opportunity) noted last week.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
I'm with Panda, I need to take a step back from all this.
Handel is a straight up monster and she won easily, beating the fucking spread no less because apparently pollsters just can't ever be right about anything. It's so God damn frustrating.
Handel is a straight up monster and she won easily, beating the fucking spread no less because apparently pollsters just can't ever be right about anything. It's so God damn frustrating.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
I've been saying we need to hold voters more responsible for their part in all this for a while now except what that actually looks like on a practical level to mobilize people...I have no idea
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
whyamihere
Banned
A few thoughts:
- This is obviously a disappointing result that's a little different than most others. Hillary got 46% here and we were only able to get a 3% swing with Trump's approval at 38ish and a candidate tailor made for the district. That sucks.
- I do not think there is a fundamental difference in terms of swings with a 1-2 point difference when assessing our future. A few thousand votes and Ossoff is a congressman. It's a shame and unbelievably frustrating, but it is what it is.
- In terms of what we're looking at going into 2018, I'm not quite sure what the end result is. This was obviously the most expensive House race of all time, something that can't really be replicated in a 2018 scenario. What happens in 2018 when we're trying to field all of these candidates? I have no idea.
- This was supposed to by type of district that we should be targeting. It's frustrating that we couldn't clear 50%, and we need to reasses our messaging going into 2018. We are making our biggest gains in districts that Hillary did very poorly in but where the turnout is low, versus this, where our turnout was super high but our gains were modest. Not sure what to do about that.
- I think the Impeach Trump stuff is actually a bigger cloud over a lot of this than people are giving it credit for and maybe something that also fires up the GOP base in ways that are counter productive.
- Fairly or not, there is going to be a real conversation probably starting tonight about Pelosi going.
- This is obviously a disappointing result that's a little different than most others. Hillary got 46% here and we were only able to get a 3% swing with Trump's approval at 38ish and a candidate tailor made for the district. That sucks.
- I do not think there is a fundamental difference in terms of swings with a 1-2 point difference when assessing our future. A few thousand votes and Ossoff is a congressman. It's a shame and unbelievably frustrating, but it is what it is.
- In terms of what we're looking at going into 2018, I'm not quite sure what the end result is. This was obviously the most expensive House race of all time, something that can't really be replicated in a 2018 scenario. What happens in 2018 when we're trying to field all of these candidates? I have no idea.
- This was supposed to by type of district that we should be targeting. It's frustrating that we couldn't clear 50%, and we need to reasses our messaging going into 2018. We are making our biggest gains in districts that Hillary did very poorly in but where the turnout is low, versus this, where our turnout was super high but our gains were modest. Not sure what to do about that.
- I think the Impeach Trump stuff is actually a bigger cloud over a lot of this than people are giving it credit for and maybe something that also fires up the GOP base in ways that are counter productive.
- Fairly or not, there is going to be a real conversation probably starting tonight about Pelosi going.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
All of it from grassroots don't forget
We work too hard, and make too little
That would be a good basis, combine that with everyone should have healthcare (verbatim from that republican at that townhall)
Autodidact
Banned
I know you live in the district and worked incredibly hard. Thank you for your efforts and please know they mean so much despite this loss.
The final result will end up around 52-48, which would be within the MoE or just outside it, sadly.
The two biggest issues I think to overcome are:
- Your vote doesn't matter.
- Both sides are the same.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Blegh, Handel gets the red checkmark.
Next year in Jerusalem.
Next year in Jerusalem.
The man has a point.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I'll believe it when I see it. I originally predicted a democratic takeover of the House, but I'm not entirely convinced they know how to do it.
Trump effect is happening with these polls. Add 2-3 points for GOP each time.
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