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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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Blader

Member
They could have adequately funded several different races instead of bank rolling one specific race and hyping it to a national level turning it into some sort of national referendum. If the hype hurt Ossoff by the party focusing on it so much then yeah that's a mistake on their part.

If we want to have "moral victories" based on improved margins then spreading the money out more and not dumping everything into one race likely would have done that. It also makes the democrats look worse here for still losing despite what they put into it.

Or maybe the party poured more money into Ossoff's race because it was far and away the most winnable.

It's not like that support happened in a vacuum. The GOP began pumping heavily into the race too. It would be irresponsible for the DNC/DCCC not to respond in kind, everyone in here would be losing their shit if the party let that happen, and you know it.
 
It's not to the level of Hillary, but yeah. It does seem like too many people were expecting Ossoff to win instead of it being a toss-up.
Because that was the expectation set up by the party in bank rolling this and sending the other candidates nothing but a subway gift card and a ride home
 
Nate Silver's point that GA-06 hasn't moved to the left quite as much as we thought (yet), while other districts like SC-05, KS-04, etc also haven't moved as much to the right as we thought is important, I think. The movement is clearly somewhere in between

Certainly means we shouldn't write off the rust belt yet
 

Chumley

Banned
Democrats need a message. Now. It can't just be anti-Trump. Even if it's Bernie Socialism, they need something exciting to energize people. They have absolutely nothing coherent and unified right now that can penetrate to the dumbfuck electorate.
 

PBY

Banned
Nate Silver's point that GA-06 hasn't moved to the left quite as much as we thought (yet), while other districts like SC-05, KS-04, etc also haven't moved as much to the right as we thought is important, I think

Certainly means we shouldn't write off the rust belt yet

I mean... if the Dems write off the rust belt theyre fucked for the foreseeable future so...

Democrats need a message. Now. Even if it's Bernie Socialism, they need something exciting to energize people. They have absolutely nothing coherent and unified right now that can penetrate to the dumbfuck electorate.

It has to be "Bernie Socialism" (minus Bernie). Free college, 15 min wage, single payer, no intervention overseas. Fuck any compromises.
 
You know, I realized that after November I can never be shocked or devastated by an election result ever again. Disappointed, yes, or even angry; but never completely destroyed.
 
She's going to win by like 2-3 points. That's not really beating her polls -- polling in a special is hard, that's well within the MOE, and there was swing towards Handel near the end.
 
Democrats need a message. Now. Even if it's Bernie Socialism, they need something exciting to energize people. They have absolutely nothing coherent and unified right now that can penetrate to the dumbfuck electorate.

Democrats need to man the fuck up and rally behind Single Payer already.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
- Fairly or not, there is going to be a real conversation probably starting tonight about Pelosi going.

I like Peolsi for similar reasons to why I liked Hillary: she is clearly someone who has learned to navigate the actual mechanics of DC like a shark. But...yeah I dunno. If we lose her we lose a tremendous political operator in the case where we retake the house. On the other hand maybe we need someone who will go loud.
 

Chumley

Banned
You know, I realized that after November I can never be shocked or devastated by an election result ever again. Disappointed, yes, or even angry; but never completely destroyed.

If Trump wins in 2020 the country is literally done. Like, time to move to Canada done. I'm serious.
 
It's hard to seethe when this dumbasses keep voting for more surrogates for someone they apparently hate, but whatever.

If Trump wins in 2020 the country is literally done. Like, time to move to Canada done. I'm serious.

Republicans with a 7-2 SC majority is not a country I want to be in.
 

Kusagari

Member
Considering Trump doing horribly is the entire reason this election became a field day to begin with, I don't think Ossoff did near enough to tie Handel to him.

Handel rather inexplicably tied herself to everything Trump did and Ossoff didn't seem to take advantage.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Democrats need a message. Now. It can't just be anti-Trump. Even if it's Bernie Socialism, they need something exciting to energize people. They have absolutely nothing coherent and unified right now that can penetrate to the dumbfuck electorate.

Yep. I'd take Bernie socialism at this point. Unified main message with candidates that match the demographics of the areas in which they run.
 
I've been saying we need to hold voters more responsible for their part in all this for a while now except what that actually looks like on a practical level to mobilize people...I have no idea

The two biggest issues I think to overcome are:

- Your vote doesn't matter.
- Both sides are the same.

All we can really do is educate people, both as kids and adults. The latter is more immediate, but the former is where the big gains are, I feel. We don't have the propaganda capabilities the right has, so trying to make sure all kids in blue states learn that it's not okay to hurt people and that they're expected to think for themselves could go a long way to dropping to overall % of the population that's effectively sociopathic.

Democrats need a message. Now. Even if it's Bernie Socialism, they need something exciting to energize people. They have absolutely nothing coherent and unified right now that can penetrate to the dumbfuck electorate.

I'd rather they wait and make sure it's the right message delivered by the right people. We've got until 2018.
 
She's going to win by like 2-3 points. That's not really beating her polls -- polling in a special is hard, that's well within the MOE, and there was swing towards Handel near the end.
Yeah you had polls where Ossoff was ahead on the back of literally one respondent. We need to stop treating polls like a binary result. Saw the same shit with "zomg Brexit" even though those polls were within the MoE too.
 
Yep. I'd take Bernie socialism at this point. Unified main message with candidates that match the demographics of the areas in which they run.

Howard Deans 50 state strategy mixed with Bernie socialism?

The thing that screws with my mind with stuff like this is, literally what are they voting for with her? Really..
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
People underestimate how much the Occupy Wallstreet movement helped the Dems. It got the whole 1% VS 99% into the mainstream dialect. That momentum has gone away over the past few years as the economy improved. You can't really just pull that out of a hat either. It's the same how Dems benefited from the unpopular war in Iraq, even if didn't translate into a victory in 2004 because it was too early, it definitely massively contributed to Obama's victory.

People have too short of a memory, they look too much under the rocks and miss the mountain.
 
Considering Trump doing horribly is the entire reason this election became a field day to begin with, I don't think Ossoff did near enough to tie Handel to him.

Handel rather inexplicably tied herself to everything Trump did and Ossoff didn't seem to take advantage.
i thought the same thing. I didn't come across any ads that tied her to trump in the same way that Ossoff was tied to pelosi and a terrorist gunman
 

royalan

Member
It is very hopeful to think that dilution of Republican attention in 2017 will prevent outcomes like this, but it remains to be seen whether the media predicting a Democratic wave will paradoxically energize Republican voters on a national level and allow them to hold on.

The question right now is if funneling Republicans into a separate information ecosystem, wherein the negative barbs of the mainstream media and Washington establishment, will allow them to assume something like a permanently energized state. They were already reliable voters, but it seems like we may be entering a state where the Republican floor is even higher, relative to their share of the population, than it has ever been, because anytime something goes wrong, they only have to hear about it through a filter that softens or utterly inverts it. In some ways, being so reprehensible that people can only justify reflexively supporting you by not engaging with mainstream sources of information at all, is a pretty brilliant political strategy.

This is my big fear.

I think it's really naive to think that nationalizing this race means only Democrats were tuning in. Republicans are going to turn 2018 as a do-or-die moment for all Republicans.
 
Hmm. Guess I have to stay on board the "inevitable second civil war/Balkanization" train. Was kind of looking forward to feeling positive tonight. Ah well, I guess tonight's wine is sad wine.
 
Considering Trump doing horribly is the entire reason this election became a field day to begin with, I don't think Ossoff did near enough to tie Handel to him.

Handel rather inexplicably tied herself to everything Trump did and Ossoff didn't seem to take advantage.

i thought the same thing. I didn't come across any ads that tied her to trump in the same way that Ossoff was tied to pelosi and a terrorist gunman

Overcorrection from examining Hillary's campaign, maybe? "Talk issues, not personality."
 

Zolo

Member
This is my big fear.

I think it's really naive to think that nationalizing this race means only Democrats were tuning in. Republicans are going to turn 2018 as a do-or-die moment for all Republicans.

It went against the traditional narrative of higher voter turnout being good for Democrats. I think nationalizing the issue is definitely going to be the biggest thing to look at from these results.
 
I think Royalan's onto something with the pathos argument. Republicans have it, most of our guys don't (or don't show it). S'why I like the cursing stuff, actually. Get angry, get loud. People like Ossoff are perfectly suited, actually. No stigma to a white man getting angry, he doesn't lose any points for being heated in the way a woman or a black man would.
 

Crocodile

Member
I think its fair to say Ossoff sometimes came off as wooden but its hard so see what obvious campaign mistakes he made. I had heard his ads more anti-Trump to start with but data showed that wasn't super effective even if Trump isn't popular in that district. I'm also skeptical that going more "populist" is a good fir for GA-06? The same message can't work for every congressional district local race can it? GA06 seems like a bad fit for it.
 

PBY

Banned
I think its fair to say Ossoff sometimes came off as wooden but its hard so see what obvious campaign mistakes he made. I had heard his ads more anti-Trump to start with but data showed that wasn't super effective even if Trump isn't popular in that district. I'm also skeptical that going more "populist" is a good fir for GA-06? The same message can't work for every congressional district local race can it? GA06 seems like a bad fit for it.
This is true. Local campaigns have to be narrowly tailored to their audience.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Seth Moulton
Seth Moulton‏ @sethmoulton

#Ossof Race better be a wake up call for Democrats - business as usual isn't working. Time to stop rehashing 2016 and talk about the future.

Democratic Congressman from MA.
 

Zolo

Member
I think Royalan's onto something with the pathos argument. Republicans have it, most of our guys don't (or don't show it). S'why I like the cursing stuff, actually. Get angry, get loud. People like Ossoff are perfectly suited, actually. No stigma to a white man getting angry, he doesn't lose any points for being heated in the way a woman or a black man would.

Trump's "Keep America Great" message certainly isn't going to go as well.

But yeah. Running on "America's already great', "Everything's fine", "Vote to keep everything like it is" generally aren't messages that are good to run on.
 

royalan

Member
It is not the message. It is the messenger.

We have seen Sanderistas lose.

We're now seeing traditional Democrats lose.

Bernie Sanders is the biggest loser of them all, but one thing that can not be said is that he didn't have a simple, easy-to-digest message. Simple policy. It wasn't enough.

Barack Obama was a handsome, charismatic black politician promising blanket hope at a time when that was exactly what we needed in order to tap into the cultural zeitgeist of the moment.

Democrats need to start picking people who can inspire before they even utter a single word.
 
Nationalizing a message early carries the same risks as nationalizing a race, I feel. Republicans take it, distort it, feed it to their base as fear-fuel.
 
I think its fair to say Ossoff sometimes came off as wooden but its hard so see what obvious campaign mistakes he made. I had heard his ads more anti-Trump to start with but data showed that wasn't super effective even if Trump isn't popular in that district. I'm also skeptical that going more "populist" is a good fir for GA-06? The same message can't work for every congressional district local race can it? GA06 seems like a bad fit for it.

Yeah, I was thinking his early ads and general message were all about being a check on Trump and how Trump is not fit to lead. I had wondered where that went.
 
I think Ossoff lost because it's a traditionally GOP district that if there was a 1-on-1 ARV with HRC and Trump, would've probably ended with the same result.

Trump's favorables are lower now, though, so something to think about!!!
 
It is not the message. It is the messenger.

We have seen Sanderistas lose.

We're now seeing traditional Democrats lose.

Bernie Sanders is the biggest loser of them all, but one thing that can not be said is that he didn't have a simple, easy-to-digest message. Simple policy. It wasn't enough.

Barack Obama was a handsome, charismatic black politician promising blanket hope at a time when that was exactly what we needed in order to tap into the cultural zeitgeist of the moment.

Democrats need to start picking people who can inspire before they even utter a single word.

We need to keep this in mind for 2020.
 
It is not the message. It is the messenger.

We have seen Sanderistas lose.

We're now seeing traditional Democrats lose.

Bernie Sanders is the biggest loser of them all, but one thing that can not be said is that he didn't have a simple, easy-to-digest message. Simple policy. It wasn't enough.

Barack Obama was a handsome, charismatic black politician promising blanket hope at a time when that was exactly what we needed in order to tap into the cultural zeitgeist of the moment.

Democrats need to start picking people who can inspire before they even utter a single word.

This is why I feel so hopeless. Dems need to find a perfect angel super candidate to make the slightest headway, Republicans can shit themselves on stage while yelling the N word and still win handily.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I think its fair to say Ossoff sometimes came off as wooden but its hard so see what obvious campaign mistakes he made. I had heard his ads more anti-Trump to start with but data showed that wasn't super effective even if Trump isn't popular in that district. I'm also skeptical that going more "populist" is a good fir for GA-06? The same message can't work for every congressional district local race can it? GA06 seems like a bad fit for it.

There was a swing in the last few days that seemed to do him in. It could just be that nationalizing the race was a mistake and made it easier of Handel to tie him to the rest of the party, which is what I was afraid of what the party started inserting itself in the race and spending tons of cash. It may well have made it harder for him to differentiate himself from the party as a whole.

I think Ossoff lost because it's a traditionally GOP district that if there was a 1-on-1 ARV with HRC and Trump, would've probably ended with the same result.

Trump's favorables are lower now, though, so something to think about!!!

We all knew he'd have a hard time once we saw the vote totals from the primary. He may want to try again when the eyes of the nation aren't on the election.
 
It's obviously early but I think the main takeaway should be that Sun Belt districts are within reach but not guaranteed and probably should not constitute the entirety of the path towards winning the House in 2018. If Democrats paid me those disgusting consulting dollars I would say a plausible path to victory next year would involve winning back a combination of Rust Belt districts like OH-1 and IA-1 and those close districts in California, Kansas City, the swing districts in Florida, etc.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
It is not the message. It is the messenger.

We have seen Sanderistas lose.

We're now seeing traditional Democrats lose.

Bernie Sanders is the biggest loser of them all, but one thing that can not be said is that he didn't have a simple, easy-to-digest message. Simple policy. It wasn't enough.

Barack Obama was a handsome, charismatic black politician promising blanket hope at a time when that was exactly what we needed in order to tap into the cultural zeitgeist of the moment.

Democrats need to start picking people who can inspire before they even utter a single word.

Get ready for President Oprah Winfrey!

There was a swing in the last few days that seemed to do him in. It could just be that nationalizing the race was a mistake and made it easier of Handel to tie him to the rest of the party, which is what I was afraid of what the party started inserting itself in the race and spending tons of cash. It may well have made it harder for him to differentiate himself from the party as a whole.

I wonder how much those last Photoshopped ads had to do with it. Those things actually work to drive repubs to the polls.
 

Kusagari

Member
It is not the message. It is the messenger.

We have seen Sanderistas lose.

We're now seeing traditional Democrats lose.

Bernie Sanders is the biggest loser of them all, but one thing that can not be said is that he didn't have a simple, easy-to-digest message. Simple policy. It wasn't enough.

Barack Obama was a handsome, charismatic black politician promising blanket hope at a time when that was exactly what we needed in order to tap into the cultural zeitgeist of the moment.

Democrats need to start picking people who can inspire before they even utter a single word.

There is no Barack Obama II coming. He was a once in a generation politician.

If the only way to win is to replicate Obama then we've already lost.
 
If we want to write off all these house special elections fine.

But, If democrats do not win the house in 2018

EVERYONE needs to go. Every position of leadership. Every position of power. Every section from top to bottom, I do care who they are, they seriously needs to get the fuck out and go away for good.

No more bullshit. No more excuses. I don't want to hear any " well GOP just excited their base what can you do!"

Mass exodus if we don't win the house and make MAJOR halls in governors mansions.

Sound fair?
 

Valhelm

contribute something
Nate Silver's point that GA-06 hasn't moved to the left quite as much as we thought (yet), while other districts like SC-05, KS-04, etc also haven't moved as much to the right as we thought is important, I think. The movement is clearly somewhere in between

Certainly means we shouldn't write off the rust belt yet

Waiting for demographic changes seems like a really bad idea. Statistically, the trend is rarely your friend, and a lot of unforeseen factors could interrupt this demographic process.
 

PBY

Banned
If we want to write off all these house special elections fine.

But, If democrats do not win the house in 2018

EVERYONE needs to go. Every position of leadership. Every position of power. Every section from top to bottom, I do care who they are, they seriously needs to get the fuck out and go away for good.

No more bullshit. No more excuses. I don't want to hear any " well GOP just excited their base what can you do!"

Mass exodus if we don't win the house and make MAJOR halls in governors mansions.

Sound fair?
YES.
 
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