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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I think rethuglicans are still going to run on TAX AND SPEND LIBERALS and I do think that's effective. I think we should run on how we are into giving people stuff.
 
I'm not totally sure what Dems should be running on in 2018, but whatever it is they should make sure it's a Big Deal and not concern themselves overmuch with the details. Better to promise the moon and fail to deliver (but have control of all 3 branches of government) than promise exactly what we can deliver while being honest about potential pitfalls and downsides and lose bigly.

People want their unicorns.
 
Replying to @sahilkapur
Trump says Dems have been "unbelievably nasty," next sentence bashes Jon Ossoff as "this kid who forgot to live in the community he was in."
 
Actually an in-depth evaluation of all four special elections could be worthwhile, as you have four different regions, four different demographic layouts, and four very different Democrats running different strategies. Between them you could get a good picture of what works and what doesn't as a generalized playbook.
this isn't how you do science
 
He's such a mind fuck, jesus christ.

I mean, Howard Stern and Larry King were right about this dude. This basically sums it up perfectly (said during the speech just now)

Daniel Dale‏Verified account @ddale8 20m20 minutes ago
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Donald Trump on him and Republicans: "The truth is: people love us."

For a summary on what he has said, follow Dale and Sahil Kapur. They both wrote up most of his zingers.

edit:

Daniel Dale‏Verified account @ddale8 1m1 minute ago
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Trump: Why could Obama deal with Iran, which is so bad to "the gays, the women," but I can't deal with anybody without getting yelled at?
 

Ernest

Banned
Not to rehash Russia's involvement in our elections, but this is fucking INSANE to me:

"The Department of Homeland Security insists that no one hacked actual votes—but admits it never ran an audit to check."

Like, are you fucking kidding me?

"There's not way this lump could be cancer, and I never got a biopsy to check"

Similar to how people won't go to see a doctor, fearing bad news, I think a lot of people really don't want to know if a foreign actor could change our vote counts, so they'd rather live in willful ignorance than face the possibility of an ugly truth.
 
The US government cannot admit anything that would lend credence to the idea of Russians changing actual vote totals, regardless of whether it was true or not. That's basically game over for anyone interested in preserving a sense of legitimacy with our electoral system.

Once that door is opened, it's never going to close. Now maybe it's just a matter of time before it happens and maybe the electoral process is illegitimate for other reasons, but openly admitting that would be apocalyptic.
 
Still did better than Quist.
nsPMeAJ.jpg
 
Damn at South Carolina coming out of nowhere with the closest result of all the red districts.

But it shouldn't be surprising, I guess. The district had a Democratic representative as recently as 2010, I think.
 

kirblar

Member
Can't speak to Larry King, but Stern was convinced Trump was running for fun and to boist his businesses, and that he didn't want to be president at all.
Given that "TRUMP NEWS" was supposed to launch the day after the election, this is likely accurate. It was "THE PRODUCERS" in non-ironic campaign form.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I'm more and more convinced that we should put a per-capita limit on race spending.
If they get more donations then the cap, split the funds with additional GOTV efforts, and other races. Not sure what the split should be.

Would actually look good for the party too.

The diminishing returns on these local races is real.
 
Damn at South Carolina coming out of nowhere with the biggest swing of all the red districts.

But it shouldn't be surprising, I guess. The district had a Democratic representative as recently as 2010, I think.
Don't know how it stacked up last year, but SC has been moving up over the last few elections as far as states with the highest Dem vote share. The same factors making NC, GA, TX etc bluer should be in SC too just a bit later.

It was Obama's 31st best state in 2012 and Clinton's 31st in 2016. Obama's 33rd best in 2008, Kerry's 36th best, Gore's 38th.

The vote total has been remarkably consistent - Obama scored 44% there in both his elections, Clinton, Gore and Kerry all pulled 40%. High floor, low ceiling.
 
Don't know how it stacked up last year, but SC has been moving up over the last few elections as far as states with the highest Dem vote share. The same factors making NC, GA, TX etc bluer should be in SC too just a bit later.

It was Obama's 31st best state in 2012 and Clinton's 31st in 2016. Obama's 33rd best in 2008, Kerry's 36th best, Gore's 38th.

The vote total has been remarkably consistent - Obama scored 44% there in both his elections, Clinton, Gore and Kerry all pulled 40%. High floor, low ceiling.

Basically, black people vote consistently despite "liberals" trying to pin election losses on them.

It also reiterates a point I made last thread. The south has more potential than, say, Oklahoma or Kansas because of the south's black population. Maximize and increase black and Latino turnout, and you make the south and the entire Sun Belt competitive. Those groups will be the reasons we start winning elections there. Abandoning "identity politics" would be a bad move.
 

GrapeApes

Member
Why are people even watching Trump rallies? Why are they broadcasting 2020 rallies in 2017? Just say no, kids. No need to look at the car crash. No real news will be made. Trump will just let the audience felate him for the whole time.
 
DCCC doing some damage control, they released a memo indicating Democrats are winning 17 GOP-held districts in internal polling, tied in 3 and behind by a point in 4 more. Some were tested against Generic Democrat, but others were tested against prominent opponents.

Always take a grain of salt (or a heaping bag's worth) with internals, but I thought I'd share.

FL-27 (OPEN) +18 ]

Sorry to respond to this post so late, but I see now why Ros-Lehtinen decided to "retire." She represents a D+5 district, won only by a respectable margin last November, and probably would have lost next year. If it's D+18 with an open seat, I can't imagine her incumbency advantage would've helped that much.

Kirblar, you live in Comstock's district, don't you? Has the VA Democratic Party any suitable challengers in mind? She only won 53-47 in November - not a squeaker but certainly not anything amazing, either. In a D+1 district, she should be finished next time, I would hope.
 

Chart neglects to mention that Montana has actually voted Dems in before (See: Montana's governor and Tester). Same with the SC district. (2010 saw the Dem there wash out) Different context entirely than our fellow in Georgia.

If you're still going to go on a, "Ossoff should have run on a Bernie platform," that a lot of you want to utilize, then I suppose using deceptive charting is a good way to do it.

Regardless, I honestly want the Democrats to run on a Bernie platform everywhere. It would flop. Then we could go back to a reasonable 50-state solution with this Tea Party-style uprising in the party nipped, once and for all.
 

RaidenZR

Member
Not to rehash Russia's involvement in our elections, but this is fucking INSANE to me:

"The Department of Homeland Security insists that no one hacked actual votes—but admits it never ran an audit to check."

Like, are you fucking kidding me?

"There's not way this lump could be cancer, and I never got a biopsy to check"

Similar to how people won't go to see a doctor, fearing bad news, I think a lot of people really don't want to know if a foreign actor could change our vote counts, so they'd rather live in willful ignorance than face the possibility of an ugly truth.

Why isn't this getting more limelight? Wtf?
 

JP_

Banned
Listened to both 538 and The Weeds analyze GA-6/SC-5. I don't remember 538 even bringing up the incumbent factor, but it was a good point brought up on The Weeds -- these special elections don't have incumbents, most of the races in 2018 will. So it's probably not smart to extrapolate these special election swings across the board. When dems are trying to take a seat from an incumbent R, it'll be significantly tougher.
 
Sorry to respond to this post so late, but I see now why Ros-Lehtinen decided to "retire." She represents a D+5 district, won only by a respectable margin last November, and probably would have lost next year. If it's D+18 with an open seat, I can't imagine her incumbency advantage would've helped that much.

Kirblar, you live in Comstock's district, don't you? Has the VA Democratic Party any suitable challengers in mind? She only won 53-47 in November - not a squeaker but certainly not anything amazing, either. In a D+1 district, she should be finished next time, I would hope.
VA-10 has several credible challengers luckily.
 

Ogodei

Member
How's Medicaid buy-in supposed to be better than private insurance? Because it has no deductible?

I was on Medicaid briefly (gap between when i turned 26 and when I got out of grad school and started making some decent income), but only ever used it for some prescription acne medicine, so i only saw what it gave me in co-pays.
 
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