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[JP_]

How's Medicaid buy-in supposed to be better than private insurance? Because it has no deductible?

I was on Medicaid briefly (gap between when i turned 26 and when I got out of grad school and started making some decent income), but only ever used it for some prescription acne medicine, so i only saw what it gave me in co-pays.

Cheaper? Something as a backup plan if republicans roll back ACA protections?

 

[kirblar]

Sorry to respond to this post so late, but I see now why Ros-Lehtinen decided to "retire." She represents a D+5 district, won only by a respectable margin last November, and probably would have lost next year. If it's D+18 with an open seat, I can't imagine her incumbency advantage would've helped that much.

Kirblar, you live in Comstock's district, don't you? Has the VA Democratic Party any suitable challengers in mind? She only won 53-47 in November - not a squeaker but certainly not anything amazing, either. In a D+1 district, she should be finished next time, I would hope.

Last year's candidate was really bad on the outreach angle- I was receiving tons of Comstock fliers and such, none from her. She didn't lose by much though.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Watching this Tim Ryan fucker on CNN say Pelosi is more toxic than Donald Trump in some areas and that we shouldn't talk to black people and LGBT people as if they're a separate group because they don't want to be treated that way (or some other weird phrasing, I can't remember). Nice dog whistle for "fuck your issues", asshole. And then he said black people just want a job.

Defend the party against these motherfuckers with everything you've got. And he had the nerve to challenge Pelosi for the leadership?

 

[AntraxSuicide]

How's Medicaid buy-in supposed to be better than private insurance? Because it has no deductible?

I was on Medicaid briefly (gap between when i turned 26 and when I got out of grad school and started making some decent income), but only ever used it for some prescription acne medicine, so i only saw what it gave me in co-pays.

Cheaper and it's not employer care. We really need to separate that.

 

[Diablos]

Medicaid buy in for anyone who wants it is basically a public option
That pretty much speaks for itself

EVERY blue state should be doing this. Single payer is the most ambitious and ideal, yes, but it's also the most difficult and least likely especially given the position the party is in nationally speaking. Can anyone think of an easy way to actually fund a single payer healthcare system within a state that won't piss off even the most loyal of liberal voters? Fuck no.

Medicaid buy in is a really good idea, not just for disabled folks or underemployed folks but ANYONE who makes up to, say, 60k a year and wants to buy in.

 

[Ogodei]

Watching this Tim Ryan fucker on CNN say Pelosi is more toxic than Donald Trump in some areas and that we shouldn't talk to black people and LGBT people as if they're a separate group because they don't want to be treated that way (or some other weird phrasing, I can't remember). Nice dog whistle for "fuck your issues", asshole. And then he said black people just want a job.

Defend the party against these motherfuckers with everything you've got. And he had the nerve to challenge Pelosi for the leadership?

He from Youngstown?

Somebody out that way should primary his ass. Youngstown's actually the town on my birth certificate (though i never lived in Ohio), maybe i could take a run at him.

 

[metalslimer]

Yeah that healthcare bill is getting 50 votes. Just enough maneuvering of the toxic shit to either down the road or reworded that it gives some cover to the senators in 2018 and 2020.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Basically, black people vote consistently despite "liberals" trying to pin election losses on them.

It also reiterates a point I made last thread. The south has more potential than, say, Oklahoma or Kansas because of the south's black population. Maximize and increase black and Latino turnout, and you make the south and the entire Sun Belt competitive. Those groups will be the reasons we start winning elections there. Abandoning "identity politics" would be a bad move.

Kansas 12, 16

Obama 38%
Hillary 36%

Alabama 12, 16

Obama 38%
Hillary 34%

Mississippi 12, 16
Obama 44%
Hillary 40%

There arent many minorities in Kansas but the vote is almost matching Alabama lol.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Yeah that healthcare bill is getting 50 votes. Just enough maneuvering of the toxic shit to either down the road or reworded that it gives some cover to the senators in 2018 and 2020.

if Cruz and Paul are hard nos, hitting 50 seems near impossible. There's no room at all for any other senators to vote against it.

 

[Diablos]

if Cruz and Paul are hard nos, hitting 50 seems near impossible. There's no room at all for any other senators to vote against it.

idk the proposed changes seem like a carefully crafted love letter to Collins
And of course Cassidy because he's a dishonest spineless nerdy weasel fuck
Capito will like these changes too I would think...

I really hate Cassidy lately. He like was trying to redefine himself as the reasonable guy in the room on health care after Trump got elected and now he's just rolling over after his little meeting with Mitch.
I just cannot stand politicians like that. If you really want to just slash and burn when its the 11th hour then do NOT prop yourself up as a voice of reason in a period of political turmoil. I HATE these kinds of people.

 

[Autodidact]

idk the proposed changes seem like a carefully crafted love letter to Collins
And of course Cassidy because he's a dishonest spineless nerdy weasel fuck

Roses are red, Democrats are blue
Dear Sue Collins, will you vote for this bill too?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

idk the proposed changes seem like a carefully crafted love letter to Collins
And of course Cassidy because he's a dishonest spineless nerdy weasel fuck

We'll have to see if they're able to swallow the bad press from the CBO estimate.

 

[TiredofWinning]

I've been at work all day so I've missed out on the meltdowns but I just gotta say if you really think by elections are indicative of national trends I dunno what to tell you.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I've been at work all day so I've missed out on the meltdowns but I just gotta say if you really think by elections are indicative of national trends I dunno what to tell you.

So I guess Nate Silver is an idiot?

 

[Diablos]

We'll have to see if they're able to swallow the bad press from the CBO estimate.

I think they already have an idea and that is why they changed their tune. Cassidy at least

Like when Cassidy emerges from the meeting saying "I did not get everything I wanted but that's life" it basically implies he made up his mind and is OK with it.

 

[Autodidact]

So who wins a three-way primary among Romney, Huntsman, and McMullin for Hatch's seat? I know only one high-profile person would probably run, but such a race would be interesting.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I think they already have an idea and that is why they changed their tune. Cassidy at least

Like when Cassidy emerges from the meeting saying "I did not get everything I wanted but that's life" it basically implies he made up his mind and is OK with it.

They might have an idea, but it's a different story when the news for three straight days before the vote is about how 20 million people are going to lose insurance

The timeline doesn't matter at all for the headlines.

 

[Aaron Strife]

So who wins a three-way primary among Romney, Huntsman, and McMullin for Hatch's seat? I know only one high-profile person would probably run, but such a race would be interesting.

I think Romney. Huntsman is Diet Romney and McMullin, despite his high pull last year, is probably a non-factor.

 

[Diablos]

RMoney baby.

Why Joe Biden wants him to run I'm not sure. Like I get it, he is the best one if you are a GOPer, but why would he care?

I think he's stuck in that mode where he doesn't know what to do about US politics continuing to erode, like when he suggested that McCain be John Kerry's VP. Lol

 

[kirblar]

I've been at work all day so I've missed out on the meltdowns but I just gotta say if you really think by elections are indicative of national trends I dunno what to tell you.

http://www.politico.com/story/2010/05/the-gops-special-failure-037473

May special election. GOP lost. In 2010. Perceived as a portent. (lol)

 

[Roland_Gunner]

So I guess Nate Silver is an idiot?

Silvers argument was that Georgia could have perceived importance among elected Republicans and finally split some of them off from Trump. Not that it had future predictive value.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-georgia-special-election-matters/

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

this isn't how you do science

Descriptive case studies are a valid way of generating knowledge.

 

[Pryce]

So who wins a three-way primary among Romney, Huntsman, and McMullin for Hatch's seat? I know only one high-profile person would probably run, but such a race would be interesting.

Romney easily. He has the most money, right?

 

[Autodidact]

Romney easily. He has the most money, right?

Huntsman's family is loaded, though probably not to the extent of Romney's.

Spoiler

Huntsman is also sexier even though they're both silver daddies.

 

[Pryce]

Huntsman's family is loaded, though probably not to the extent of Romney's.

Spoiler

Huntsman is also sexier even though they're both silver daddies.

I was pulling for Huntsman in 2012. I would still have voted for Obama but Huntsman vs. what the GOP has now...lord.

 

[Sirpopopop]

https://nyti.ms/2tMRKXo

This is a great editorial from Ross Douthat on a survey about voter sentiment across economic and social issues. (Figure 2 of the survey)

It divided American voter sentiment into four different quadrants:

Socially liberal/economically conservative
Socially conservative/economically liberal
Socially liberal/economically liberal
Socially conservative/economically conservative

Essentially all the democratic voters are crowded in Socially liberal/economically liberal spectrum.So, it speaks to the fact that the Democratic base is fairly ideologically homogeneous.

However, Republicans won a lot of the votes in the socially conservative/economically conservative and socially conservative/economically liberal demographics. A lot of the Obama voters were in the socially conservative/economically liberal demographic.

Rather interestingly a lot of the third party voters resided in the socially liberal/economically conservative bracket. It was also the most sparsely populated bracket there. Essentially these are libertarians, and people like Evan McMullin.

 

[Autodidact]

I was pulling for Huntsman in 2012. I would still have voted for Obama but Huntsman vs. what the GOP has now...lord.

I would pull for him without hesitation.

 

[Aaron Strife]

RMoney baby.

Why Joe Biden wants him to run I'm not sure. Like I get it, he is the best one if you are a GOPer, but why would he care?

I think he's stuck in that mode where he doesn't know what to do about US politics continuing to erode, like when he suggested that McCain be John Kerry's VP. Lol

Maybe he wants guys like Romney in there so they can pretend there's some normalcy left in the GOP, the problem is the establishment Republicans are more than willing to indulge the crazies.

 

[Diablos]

Still mad at Joe for not running. He would have drowned Bernie out and I think he would have done fine in the primary especially since Obama would have endorsed him

Seriously all we needed for the Bern to fade was another old white guy who knows how to talk to crowds and he wouldn't have stood a chance.

And even if he lost to Hillary it still would have been better for the party because Bernie would have never really had an opportunity to take off like he did I think

 

[Pryce]

Still mad at Joe for not running. He would have drowned Bernie out and I think he would have done fine in the primary especially since Obama would have endorsed him

Seriously all we needed for the Bern to fade was another old white guy who knows how to talk to crowds and he wouldn't have stood a chance.

And even if he lost to Hillary it still would have been better for the party because Bernie would have never really had an opportunity to take off like he did I think

Well I'm certainly glad this didn't happen! Bernie has been good for the party.

A full Obama endorsement toward Biden would have given him the nomination, I think.

 

[Diablos]

Well I'm certainly glad this didn't happen! Bernie has been good for the party.

A full Obama endorsement toward Biden would have given him the nomination, I think.

Do you remember the DNC

Bernie generated some excitement yes. So would have Biden with Obama at his side. And the contrast he would have made between himself and Hillary would have been noticeable but done in a way that wouldn't have inspired a lot of the chaos that we saw during the primaries with Bernard, I think...

 

[Tarydax]

Still mad at Joe for not running. He would have drowned Bernie out and I think he would have done fine in the primary especially since Obama would have endorsed him

Seriously all we needed for the Bern to fade was another old white guy who knows how to talk to crowds and he wouldn't have stood a chance.

And even if he lost to Hillary it still would have been better for the party because Bernie would have never really had an opportunity to take off like he did I think

Yup. His constant attacks against the Democratic Party and his foot being permanently inserted into his mouth have done Democrats and vulnerable institutions like Planned Parenthood no favors. Bernie is actively harmful and if he runs in 2020 I hope someone is willing to stomp him into the ground.

Although given that a smart guy Tom Perez was dumb enough to capitulate to him, I'm not going to hold my breath.

 

[Autodidact]

Someone ask Shinra if Ossoff is Unemployed Man, too. Can there be two? Are they now palette swaps?

 

[Diablos]

Yup. His constant attacks against the Democratic Party and his foot being permanently inserted into his mouth have done Democrats and vulnerable institutions like Planned Parenthood no favors. Bernie is actively harmful and if he runs in 2020 I hope someone is willing to stomp him into the ground.

Hillary had her missteps and her campaign strategy was pretty hollow and pathetic looking back but holy shit, Trump attacking her relentlessly, the GOP always pushing the cloud of investigation along with everything else they do, and the DNC hacks were a NIGHTMARE. Those hacks were like a spinoff of the hostage crisis and how profoundly it could shape public opinion of a nominee and a party...

So on top of all that, Bernie attacking her and the Democratic party from his self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist end of the spectrum was JUST NOT NEEDED whatsoever and was overkill. There is being competitive and there is sabotaging. If you are a low info voter and watch this unfold you're just gonna be like "welp, everyone hates Hillary therefore she sucks lol!" Bernie's unexpected surge went to his head I think and all he did was hurt his supporters more than they may even realize because Trump is now our President. He didn't come down from his high until it was too late

 

[Crocodile]

https://nyti.ms/2tMRKXo

This is a great editorial from Ross Douthat on a survey about voter sentiment across economic and social issues. (Figure 2 of the survey)

It divided American voter sentiment into four different quadrants:

Socially liberal/economically conservative
Socially conservative/economically liberal
Socially liberal/economically liberal
Socially conservative/economically conservative

Essentially all the democratic voters are crowded in Socially liberal/economically liberal spectrum.So, it speaks to the fact that the Democratic base is fairly ideologically homogeneous.

However, Republicans won a lot of the votes in the socially conservative/economically conservative and socially conservative/economically liberal demographics. A lot of the Obama voters were in the socially conservative/economically liberal demographic.

Rather interestingly a lot of the third party voters resided in the socially liberal/economically conservative bracket. It was also the most sparsely populated bracket there. Essentially these are libertarians, and people like Evan McMullin.

This is a very, very goo article and should be read by many. Both gives me hope but also makes me a bit worried depending on how Democrats should change their outreach.

EDIT: Also highlights mistake Clinton campaign made trying to separate Trump from rest of GOP

 

[Chris R]

I was pulling for Huntsman in 2012. I would still have voted for Obama but Huntsman vs. what the GOP has now...lord.

Same here.

 

[The Technomancer]

Out of the many reasons I dislike Bernie him causing Clinton to lose isn't one of them. I just don't think it mattered that much. His continual rhetoric now is a different matter, but I don't see a different set of actions from him in 2016 changing the election results she got

 

[Pixieking]

Silvers argument was that Georgia could have perceived importance among elected Republicans and finally split some of them off from Trump. Not that it had future predictive value.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-georgia-special-election-matters/

And let's not forget the entire last paragraph there:

In either case, the narrative that emerges from the Georgia 6 runoff will lack nuance and will oversimplify complex evidence. While special elections overall are a reasonably useful indicator in forecasting upcoming midterms, their power comes in numbers. A half-dozen special elections taken together are a useful sign; any one of them is less so. But we’re at a moment when Republicans have a lot of decisions to make now, and the story they tell themselves about the political environment matters as much as the reality of it. The narrative will probably be dumb, but it might matter all the same.

I'm no fan of Silver (though I don't hate him as much as others do), but this whole paragraph is just *ahem* gold.

 

[whyamihere]

Steve Schale speaks.

http://steveschale.com/blog/2017/6/20/one-big-lesson-from-ga-06.html

Pretty close to exactly 12 years ago, I took the reins of the political operation of the Florida House Democratic Caucus. During my three years there, we picked up nine Republican districts, including two swing seat Special Elections, including a special in a ruby-red type district like Georgia 06.

We made the decision to play in this race for one after passing on a few other specials. Why? We had exactly the right candidate -- and we had exactly the right GOP opponent.

It was in late 2007, and GOP State Representative Bob Allen had just resigned, the details of which I will leave to The Google. His district, in Brevard County, wasn't exactly home team territory, but like GA06, had one or two markers that at least piqued my attention.

The Republicans had a four-way primary, and in the process nominated arguably the worst possible candidate. one the Orlando Sentinel called "woefully unprepared" who "lacks even the basic knowledge of how Florida's tax structure or its school system works." Needless to say, that ad wrote itself.

On the other side, we had basically the unicorn candidate, a well-regarded City Commissioner from the district's population center, Tony Sasso. Sasso was a pure progressive on environmental issues, which gave him base bonafides, but was libertarian on enough issues to win over some right-leaning swing voters, and reasonable enough as a Commissioner to give moderate voters comfort. He was a well-liked known commodity.

Even with this perfect storm -- the perfect candidate on our side, the perfect opponent, and the perfect set-up for the race (again, you can google it), we had to claw our way to a very narrow win.

For those of you who know me well, you know my basic political sandbox: Candidates matter. There were probably 25,000 other Democrats in that state house seat that would have lost, and with all respect to my friend Tony, we probably would have lost had the GOP just nominated a decent candidate.

Taking nothing away from the campaign - I knew a lot of really smart people who did good work, and for the good of the cause, I think the party had to make some kind of an effort there (30 million was well beyond the point of diminishing returns), the basic match-up was uphill. Jon Ossoff, while an impressive young man, started out hardly more than a generic Democrat. The first time I spoke to one of my very smart Atlanta friends about Ossoff, she peppered her praise with a fair number of "but" to describe his weaknesses. Back when I was a candidate recruiter, I went out of my way to walk away from candidates whose qualities had to be modified by the word "but", especially in seats like this.

Karen Handel, on paper, was a proven commodity. Take ideology and everything else off the test, and she wins the bio test. I don't know if a more proven candidate, either some kind of prominent business leader, or prior elected, would have done better, but my gut says the odds are pretty decent. I was definitely in camp that our best shot here was in the big primary.

Even in districts like this, the road to 45-47%, with enough money and a good enough candidate, can be smooth. But the road from there to 50+1 can be like climbing Everest without oxygen -- sure it can be done, but it requires a really amazing climber and a fair amount of luck. Gwen Graham getting over the top in Florida 02 in 2014 (R+5 seat) when several others had come just short is a good example of this.

I don't think Democrats should get too down on this one, or Republicans get too excited. Districts like this show that the map in 2018 is likely to be fairly broad. Take away the money spent in the seat, and I think most Dems would rightfully feel very good about it. As we saw in South Carolina tonight, there are a lot of places that are more interesting than they normally are.

Which gets back to the lesson. One of the biggest forgotten lessons of 2006 is the importance of recruitment. My side will never have the money to go toe-to-toe with Republicans everywhere. We have to have the "better" candidate in a lot of places to win, particularly due to gerrymandering whch means we have to win more seats on GOP turf than they do on ours. At the Congressional level, the DCCC in 2006 fielded a rock-star slate of candidates. At the legislative cycle, in a year when we picked up seven GOP-held seats and held two Democratic open seats, we had the "better" candidate in almost every instance. We also recruited broadly, trying to find the best candidates we could in as many plausible seats as possible, to compete broadly, to give ourselves lots of options - and when the wave happened, the map blew wide open. Had we not put the work in on the recruitment side -- occasionally in places where a Democratic candidate had already filed, at best we would have gone plus 2 or 3, even with the wave. At same time, if we had more money, our +7 year might have been +10 or more.

Ossoff clearly has a bright future, and would have won in a lot of places last night. But in many ways, his was a candidacy created from whole cloth, and funding and turnout operations alone won't get just anyone across the line - especially somewhere like GA08. Even in this hyper partisan environment, campaigns aren't simply plug and play operations -- they are choices.

When folks ask me what the national and state party should be doing, my answer is simple: Two things, recruit high quality candidates, and register voters. And if Democrats expect to have success in November 2018, that is the work that must be done between now and then.

 

[B-Dubs]

Steve Schale speaks.

http://steveschale.com/blog/2017/6/20/one-big-lesson-from-ga-06.html

This seems smart and we'll thought out, I'm sure it will be ignored.

 

[Suikoguy]

This seems smart and we'll thought out, I'm sure it will be ignored.

Pretty much, it echos my earlier sentiment that i'm glad Trump tanked on day 0, it's helped recruiting candidates for 2018.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Steve Schale speaks.

http://steveschale.com/blog/2017/6/20/one-big-lesson-from-ga-06.html

Good advice.

There is something to be said for Handel's boringness as a candidate that I admittedly underestimated. Rich suburban Republicans vote for boilerplate candidates all the time. Romney won that district by 23 points. Clinton, the "boring" candidate last year almost pulled out a win. They didn't need to be inspired to vote the way some progressives do.

Ossoff wasn't perfect but was a good candidate in his own right. Although Kander was much better, I liken this to Missouri's Senate race last year, where you had a rock star Democrat up against an inoffensive Republican who ended up coasting in a good Republican year. You only had one half of the perfect storm. As Schale says, there are many other races where Ossoff would have had a winning campaign - just like Kander.

Hoping that Democratic recruitment this year yields good candidates. Having these crowded primaries is great so long as we don't end up with a bunch of some dudes. Randy Bryce seems like the perfect candidate on paper to take on Paul Ryan, even if suggesting his odds are long would be generous.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

If you are a low info voter and watch this unfold you're just gonna be like "welp, everyone hates Hillary therefore she sucks lol!" Bernie's unexpected surge went to his head I think and all he did was hurt his supporters more than they may even realize because Trump is now our President. He didn't come down from his high until it was too late

I think a more apt caricature of the low info voter (if we're going to mock them) would be Hillary sucks because of x and hey all of Hillary's critics reaffirm what I believe.

 

[Autodidact]

Wow, I'd never read the Gwen Graham story before. Redistricting done her dirty. That must've sucked after she put in so much work to win a fairly strong Republican (R+5) district.

 

[Makai]

I think a more apt caricature of the low info voter (if we're going to mock them) would be Hillary sucks because of x and hey all of Hillary's critics reaffirm what I believe.

A low information voter hasn't seen criticism of Hillary because they're not following politics at all. The bar is whether they can correctly identify which party is liberal and which is conservative.

 

[kirblar]

Good advice.

There is something to be said for Handel's boringness as a candidate that I admittedly underestimated. Rich suburban Republicans vote for boilerplate candidates all the time. Romney won that district by 23 points. Clinton, the "boring" candidate last year almost pulled out a win. They didn't need to be inspired to vote the way some progressives do.

Ossoff wasn't perfect but was a good candidate in his own right. Although Kander was much better, I liken this to Missouri's Senate race last year, where you had a rock star Democrat up against an inoffensive Republican who ended up coasting in a good Republican year. You only had one half of the perfect storm. As Schale says, there are many other races where Ossoff would have had a winning campaign - just like Kander.

Hoping that Democratic recruitment this year yields good candidates. Having these crowded primaries is great so long as we don't end up with a bunch of some dudes. Randy Bryce seems like the perfect candidate on paper to take on Paul Ryan, even if suggesting his odds are long would be generous.

We do love our boring technocrat Dems here in NOVA.

 

[Pixieking]

A low information voter hasn't seen criticism of Hillary because they're not following politics at all. The bar is whether they can correctly identify which party is liberal and which is conservative.

I would definitely debate this definition of "low information voter" here. "Hasn't seen criticism of Hillary because they're not following politics at all" doesn't track with the crazy amount of coverage she had, across so many newspapers, "Tonight at 11" teasers, and actual news reports. If a voter knew nothing else about Hillary, it was that there was some problem with emails, and something about Benghazi. And that's if they just tuned into NCIS and football matches, and read the National Enquirer at the checkout.

Now, I would personally add this to confirmation-bias against women and liberals. For instance "Women don't know tech", and "Damned libruls getting our troops killed abroad". So, those low info voters were "marketed to", in a way, by the GOP's relentless narrative (which was helped by all the media, of course).

But I don't think this can be extrapolated for future candidates - someone with Hillary's weaknesses isn't going to be fielded again (though that also means her accumulated potential strengths are unlikely to be seen in a candidate again anytime soon). So I think we got damned unlucky with low info voters in '16.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Someone ask Shinra if Ossoff is Unemployed Man, too. Can there be two? Are they now palette swaps?

No. He can be Tossoff.
Besides he's politically spent for now.

 

[neurosisxeno]

Besides he's politically spent for now.

Could try a Senate run down the road. Would probably have a better chance in a Statewide election than the Congressional District he tried this time around.

 

[Blader]

So who wins a three-way primary among Romney, Huntsman, and McMullin for Hatch's seat? I know only one high-profile person would probably run, but such a race would be interesting.

Isn't Huntsman going to be ambassador to Russia? And McMullin running for Chaffetz's seat?