Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Gallup daily approval still drifting lower after a slight recovery for not saying anything monumentally stupid after the shooting.
Being quiet doesn't help him much anymore.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
- Start date
- Status
Gallup daily approval still drifting lower after a slight recovery for not saying anything monumentally stupid after the shooting.
Being quiet doesn't help him much anymore.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Correct!
Wait, hold on. That's not what you argued! You analogized Brexit to racial issues and said that Labour downplayed Brexit. It would be more correct to say that Labour elected a leader who SUPPORTED Brexit -- he's known to, after all. That is not "not abandoning social justice." Labour absolutely abandoned Brexit.
And my fear immediately came to pass! Despite the fact that almost 50% of Britishers don't want Brexit, because no major party was willing to represent those voters, Brexit is now accepted as mostly an inevitability. And this is a policy that is both extremely bad in obvious ways and that the government is not competent to do! By contrast, the American government is quite competent at oppressing people of color and it would have immediate benefits for white people. It would be much easier to normalize and have much more popularity.
Lord Fagan
Junior Member
Oh man. This is the "prize" he was offering for personal donations a few days ago, right? Free hotel room, dinner and a chance to meet the president.
Feeding into that temporarily disgruntled millionaire mindset by fleecing his blue collar acolytes on the hope they might have the chance to sit in an expensive room with a bunch of actual rich people so they can feel real pretty.
Guy really knows the heart and soul of his audience.
Sirpopopop
Member
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I do find it amazing that a non-binding vote, where a not-insignificant number of voters changed their mind on, was treated as binding. Nobody had the courage to push the idea that: "Hey, that vote was non-binding, won by a slim margin, shifted 7 points by November... Let's perhaps reconsider the whole thing!"
That's a total lack of backbone that people criticize Democrats for!
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Yes. I think using health care as the number one campaign message along with the staggering tax cuts republicans gave the rich is going to be crucial. I want a nice mix of scare-tactic ads along with clear, concise advertisements about what democrats will do when they retake the House.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
This is where these analogies pass ways, though, since Brexit was decided well before 2017. There are many people who disagree with the result of the referendum, but understand that we have a basic democratic duty to respect it. This is not the same for America, since Trump's protectionism was never offered as a referendum and not separated as a distinct issue from the rest of his package, and because racism is innately conflictual with democracy - we have no democratic prior to support votes on voter suppresion even if they pass.
whyamihere
Banned
lol the end of this Politico article. I can't believe it's so long until 2018.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/06/21/archie-parnell-2017-campaign-215290
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/06/21/archie-parnell-2017-campaign-215290
Box of Kittens
Banned
That's some great analysis by Politico there. Thompson lost by 7 in a district you would expect a Democrat to lose by about 30. What a failure.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Carpe Libertatem
Member
We need to run millionaire Wall St. execs who can self fund and don't need help from the party.
But nonetheless it's good news that all types of candidates are doing well relative to what they should - moderate, centrist, left leaning, whatever. Definitely means there is no "one size fits all" silver bullet.
Except military vets named Jason.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
I think the lesson is to stop worrying about every dumb turn of phrase and just run everywhere. Districts can surprise you.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Anyone notice a strange lack of bragging about the GOP's amazing unprecedented best win ever that destroyed the Democrats and caused a wave leading to GOP control until 2040 at the minimum?
Maybe someone actually realized it was kind of a scary night for the GOP
Maybe someone actually realized it was kind of a scary night for the GOP
Autodidact
Banned
I am going to run for office one day.
I am going to be a fabulous neoliberal shill and say so in all my campaign literature and ads.
And any bragging about Georgia might have been negated by the South Carolina result. NOBODY expected that, which makes it even scarier for them.
But I am actually serious about running for shit in a few years, even local offices. I just need to find a place that will elect an effeminate gay man with a penchant for Shakespeare and polysyllabic expression.
I am going to be a fabulous neoliberal shill and say so in all my campaign literature and ads.
And any bragging about Georgia might have been negated by the South Carolina result. NOBODY expected that, which makes it even scarier for them.
But I am actually serious about running for shit in a few years, even local offices. I just need to find a place that will elect an effeminate gay man with a penchant for Shakespeare and polysyllabic expression.
whyamihere
Banned
Yes, I think they all do. They're more relieved than excited.
metalslimer
Member
It does seem quite amazing that with not a single piece of major legislation passed people are losing their minds about barely losing a bunch of special elections that dems in any other year had no chance in.
Trump doesn't have to deal with much at all.
Trump doesn't have to deal with much at all.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
What's the opinion on https://randybryceforcongress.com/about/
Who recently announced he was running for Ryan's seat.
His twitter handle is @IronStache
Who recently announced he was running for Ryan's seat.
His twitter handle is @IronStache
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Iron Stache should become Speaker if he scalps Ryan.
Autodidact
Banned
*He has the veteran thing going, which helps a bit in red districts or states (cf. Kander).
*He's had health problems, so he could use those to attack Ryan's health care policies.
*He doesn't mention social issues, but a race against Paul Ryan might not need to.
I have an old acquaintance who lives in Wisconsin. I'll see if she's heard anything local about him.
whyamihere
Banned
I'm pro-Iron Stache, but I would also hope that Dems have done some good background on him so there's no Quist-esque secrets.
VendettaRed07
Member
Paul Ryan being unseated by this man would be absolutely amazing
He should market himself as
"I would be Paul Ryan's cool uncle if Paul Ryan had a real human family"
He should market himself as
"I would be Paul Ryan's cool uncle if Paul Ryan had a real human family"
Box of Kittens
Banned
He's had some earlier runs for the state legislature. He lost by a lot but those districts are super gerrymandered. He has a great story and I really like his opening ad. I certainly like him better than the previously declared candidate who literally moved from Ohio just to challenge Ryan and seems to indulge in conspiracy theories.
Ryan's district isn't that safe but he should get a boost just from bring Speaker and he has a good constituent services record. It'll probably take quite a big blue wave to take him out but you never know if you don't try.
Ryan's district isn't that safe but he should get a boost just from bring Speaker and he has a good constituent services record. It'll probably take quite a big blue wave to take him out but you never know if you don't try.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
He's run for the state legislature before I think so he's at least had whatever vetting would come with that, though Wisconsin Dems are lol so maybe not. He's at least better than the crazy guy from Ohio.
balladofwindfishes
Member
No language regarding abortion coverage isn't going to sit right with a pretty large chunk of politicians in Washington.
The bill draft doesn't seem particularly friendly towards the FC, mostly seems to be a tailor made for moderate voter bill, punting the major garbage way into the future
The bill draft doesn't seem particularly friendly towards the FC, mostly seems to be a tailor made for moderate voter bill, punting the major garbage way into the future
Autodidact
Banned
I agree. As I said in OT, I imagine Cruz and Paul object to the subsidies in general. The conspiracy theorist in me says they've kept the abortion funding because they secretly want the bill to fail.
balladofwindfishes
Member
They can't include the abortion stuff and still use reconciliation. They were specifically told that.
But I mean, they don't seem to really care what the parliamentary says, so yea, maybe they're using that as an out, because I don't know where it hits 50 with that abortion stuff still in the bill. The FC has made it clear that is a hard stance for them.
Autodidact
Banned
Yeah, and the amended bill would have to pass the House again, where the FC would definitely raise a stink. Maybe they've given themselves multiple outs!
balladofwindfishes
Member
Now I guess we know why Cruz was a no, despite being on the team creating the bill.
And yea, the house is certainly not going to like this. It's way too moderate. The FC specifically said if they made it any more moderate and "watered down" they would kill it. I trust the FC to be stupid enough to actually go ahead with killing it...
Aaron Strife
Banned
I hope so. I'd rather it die in the Senate.
I understand the possibility of repealing Obamacare is extraordinarily tempting, but what's the victory in doing so when the new system is clearly worse and doesn't actually repeal any of the framework of the law.
I'm starting to wonder if there is actual truth to McConnell's plan of letting it die and moving on to tax reform. I have assumed it is BS (and that they have the majorities they need), but hell, maybe not.
Also, hi! I'm glad things have finally calmed down about the primary...<looks at OT> I see some things have not changed.
If it is, it's because the Senate isn't really up for election in '18 on the GOP end. They have different incentives than the house.I'm starting to wonder if there is actual truth to McConnell's plan of letting it die and moving on to tax reform. I have assumed it is BS (and that they have the majorities they need), but hell, maybe not.
Also, hi! I'm glad things have finally calmed down about the primary...<looks at OT> I see some things have not changed.
Given the UK's status on the periphery of the EU anyway (due to keeping out of the Eurozone as well as their geography), i'd argue that a supersoft Brexit is no real harm. If the UK stays in the Schengen Zone, then there's no fault to them actually leaving the EU. It's the question of how "hard" May wants Brexit to be, and she has no room to maneuver now. She loses four or five backbenchers on something and the motion fails to pass.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Making it sound like its not going to pass, so why are they having a vote? This stuff is so confusing to me.
Cool article on some concrete proposals Democrats can try that might find broad, bipartisan appeal
Also I understand all the arguments of why it might be a bad idea but I still think Warren would run a good campaign and be a good president.
Also I understand all the arguments of why it might be a bad idea but I still think Warren would run a good campaign and be a good president.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Maybe he thinks they can pick off some of the red state senators by letting AHCA die? Like a "want Obamacare gone, we need more Republican senators" kind of thing.I'm starting to wonder if there is actual truth to McConnell's plan of letting it die and moving on to tax reform. I have assumed it is BS (and that they have the majorities they need), but hell, maybe not.
Also, hi! I'm glad things have finally calmed down about the primary...<looks at OT> I see some things have not changed.
Of course even if they gain Senate seats they could still lose the House majority which would make this pretty pointless! And I don't think McConnell would play for that. Just trying to find some logic here.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
UK isn't in the Schengen Zone
excelsiorlef
Member
I always end up going back to my statement that the worst parts of OWS are the only things that lasted... which is fucking annoying.
balladofwindfishes
Member
I'm very confused by McConnell's gameplan
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
Single payer seems like a good idea for the Dems to work on, but it will ultimately fail because the Republicans are still a thing.
I think the fear is that if they don't do tax reform by 2018, they won't get another opportunity to do so because they will lose the House. So I suspect the logic here is "we can't get hung up on ACA and waste a year on it".
FWIW, I think Warren or Brown could absolutely wreck Trump. Kamala would also do way better in the Midwest than people think; she comes off as very authentic and comfortable in her own skin. But 2020 is a long damn time away, and lots can change.
neurosisxeno
Member
Basically, we need a 2008 scenario in 2020 if we want Single Payer. Need Republicans to do so poorly in 2018 and 2020, that we end up with a Democratic majority in the House, and 60+ Democrats in the Senate. And I mean 60+ actual Democrats, none of this swing voting Independents shit.
Yea, because the Midwest loves minority women. She might do great in Minnesota, and maybe Michigan, but she won't get anywhere in Iowa.
TestOfTide
Banned
To win back the voters who like the fact that Trump "tells it like it is", you don't need democrats to start being racist. You just need democrats to start being more politically incorrect in their language. Gillibrand understands this well. Democrats need to stop being so goddamn timid when it comes to talking about stuff they believe in.
And the whole problem with democrats in general is that we don't have any real ground game network whatsoever. Our fucked up idea of a ground game is to make races into "high profile" races and then convince people to focus on giving all their money to those high profile races. It's not only a waste of money, but looking at last night it clearly is counterproductive to nationalize every single race.
Instead we need to discourage all this "high profile" bullshit and instead encourage democrats to help democrats nearby. Jon Ossof should have spent less time trying to nationalize his race and more time trying to boost other Georgia democrats. Same with Quist. Same with every democrat that has run a state or local race, because the voters are there, but we can't be announcing to the rooftops that we are putting all our eggs into these few baskets or the GOP will just respond by making sure to focus on those few races as well.
Also, liberals and progressives need to be willing to play more dirty tactics at this point. I don't necessarily mean violence, but we can't be playing by a ruleset that the GOP refuses to follow.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
We need to keep it that way because once the GOP get into power again, they will dismantle it.
Aaron Strife
Banned
The thing with tax reform is who knows if they'll even be able to agree on anything, especially anything resembling Ryan's dystopian world. I wouldn't be surprised if they end up just passing a tax cut and calling it a day.
I'm not confident Warren wouldn't be dragged down by a smear campaign a la Hillary. And while Hillary spent years in the spotlight making her an easier target... eh. I think a Brown/Harris ticket is the best bet.
neurosisxeno
Member
All we need is like 2 years of full implementation for people to see how effective it can be. Once you go Single Payer there is no going back. You'd basically be trying to sell people on "remember back when you had to jump through hoops for health care? wasn't that great!?" Also at that point it's not "Republican Plan will leave 24m people without insurance" it's "Republican Plan to cost 80m+ insurance".
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