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PoliGAF 2nd Pres. Debate 2008 Thread (DOW dropping, Biden is off to Home Depot)

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C

CharlieDigital

Banned
MaddenNFL64 said:
On this issue, what proposals do republicans want to enact that make you support them?

To be frank, do you expect a change in the status quo if we have a repub congress, president, and at least a majority conservative supreme court?
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More importantly: do you think that will actually stop abortions from taking place. What happens to fertility clinics which help many couples conceive, but destroy fertilized embryos in the process? I think you'll just see a flight of these jobs and the patients to foreign countries (Canada?).
 
S

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
pxleyes said:
The whole townhall format has been hyped by the McCain campaign and he has done well in that format in the past. That does not mean he has any sort of advantage over Obama though.
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Just like the Straight Talk Express it's marketing that's based on a McCain that doesn't exist anymore.
 
P

pxleyes

Banned
beermonkey@tehbias said:
Does anybody know if CNN is doing realtime tracking of responses from Ohio undecideds tonight? That shit was like crack.
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The CNN tracking stuff has been based on where the debate is held. I expect the same will be true tonight.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Cheebs said:
Another factor is after the 2 minute answers in the first debate they got 5 minutes for back and forth discussion which helped Obama since he is not a fan of soundbites. The back and forth response in this debate is only 1 minute.

Also the audience members nor brokaw can ask follow up questions.
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Yeah that's what I was referring to. I posted those rules on the first page, lamenting them. Obama's gotten snappier as time goes on, so I'm optimistic. And McCain is sure to be fuming and nasty, and he's bad at hiding that. Body language will be scrutinized.
Cheebs said:
The houtline poll is out...yeah:

Obama 46 (-1)
McCain 44 (+3)
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Fuck. Hopefully just a weird one-day sample.
 
G

gcubed

Member
pxleyes said:
The whole townhall format has been hyped by the McCain campaign and he has done well in that format in the past. That does not mean he has any sort of advantage over Obama though.
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i believe McCain's townhalls that he wanted Obama to attend are a "little" different then this debate townhall.

The only thing that makes this even remotely resemble a townhall is that people ask questions... which are screened to high heaven. A campaign trail townhall lets the candidate relate to a person, and speak on even terms. Having someone ask a question, then the mic shut off and the camera gone, with only 2 minutes to answer, doesnt afford the "personal" time McCain excels in
 
C

Cheebs

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Fuck. Hopefully just a weird one-day sample.
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With the fact his lead in the R2K in the internals has been slowly decreasing as well I am getting the feeling his "economy" boost is starting to wear off. We'll see.
 
P

pxleyes

Banned
gcubed said:
i believe McCain's townhalls that he wanted Obama to attend are a "little" different then this debate townhall.

The only thing that makes this even remotely resemble a townhall is that people ask questions... which are screened to high heaven. A campaign trail townhall lets the candidate relate to a person, and speak on even terms. Having someone ask a question, then the mic shut off and the camera gone, with only 2 minutes to answer, doesnt afford the "personal" time McCain excels in
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No doubt, but it will be really easy for Obama to nullify that old talking point about the townhalls should he win tonight. It's kind of a half-truth but people will buy it.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
BenjaminBirdie said:
R2K?
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Research 2000/Daily Kos. He went down -2 yesterday in it and then down another -2 today in their internals. A net drop of -4 over 2 days. Like I said I am getting the feeling his high point during the bailout crisis is wearing off.

scorcho said:
Newsflash: daily tracking polls with small sample sizes are volatile
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Uh they don't have a small sample size. 900~ is the norm for national polls. And the internals of R2K are sensing the same shift. It could be nothing but so far it is starting to creep up.

And we here at gaf always praised this poll whenever Obama got a boost in it or any poll for that matter. Randomly dismissing polls is hypocritical for PoliGAF.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Cheebs said:
With the fact his lead in the R2K in the internals has been slowly decreasing as well I am getting the feeling his "economy" boost is starting to wear off. We'll see.
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Could be. Rasmussen held steady at Obama's largest lead to date. Large one-day moves like that are very unusual; I always look at changes in the aggregate trackers over a few days over one of them during a one-day swing. Besides, today is all about the debate. But two polls dipping could be an early sign to watch.
 
D

DrEvil

not a medical professional
The Lamonster said:
I need a favor.

Can somebody watch this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsX2Gx9jl_o


and transcribe McCain's quote? I don't have headphones at work but I need to add this quote to my communicator profile :lol
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"I just have to rely on the good judgement of the voters not to buy into these negative attack ads. Sooner or later people are going to figure out that if all you run is negative attack ads, you don't have much of a vision of the future, or you're not ready to articulate" - John McCain
 
T

Touchdown

Banned
McCain has the 3 T's going into the debate tonight.

Town Hall Style= +1 for McCain
Tennessee= +1 for McCain
Tom Brokaw= +1 for McCain.

The only reason I would give the town hall style as a positive for McCain is not because I think he is better at town hall's, (which I don't) it's because he has more confidence in town halls.
 
S

Sharp

Member
Cheebs said:
With the fact his lead in the R2K in the internals has been slowly decreasing as well I am getting the feeling his "economy" boost is starting to wear off. We'll see.
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Even after yesterday? I'm a bit skeptical. But we'll see.
 
S

syllogism

Member
Cheebs said:
Research 2000/Daily Kos. He went down -2 yesterday in it and then down another -2 today in their internals. A net drop of -4 over 2 days. Like I said I am getting the feeling his high point during the bailout crisis is wearing off.


Uh they don't have a small sample size. 900~ is the norm for national polls. And the internals of R2K are sensing the same shift. It could be nothing but so far it is starting to creep up.

And we here at gaf always praised this poll whenever Obama got a boost in it or any poll for that matter. Randomly dismissing polls is hypocritical for PoliGAF.
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Rasmussen and battleground tracking didn't move. There's very little reason to suspect there's anything going on besides standard fluctuation.
 
G

gcubed

Member
XxenobladerxX said:
The daily tracking polls are nice and all,but I'm pay attention to the battle ground state polls.
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1) if ALL the national tracking polls start trending downward, then we worry

2) if ALL the national tracking polls start trending downward, the battleground state polls are usually about a week behind.


Ras didnt move, lets see what Gallup did at noon.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
syllogism said:
Rasmussen and battleground tracking didn't move. There's very little reason to suspect there's anything going on besides standard fluctuation.
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Battleground is a week long poll, it'd take a whole lot to move it over night. Like I said it is just a gut feeling based on 2 of the 3 polls this morning. We'll see what gallup says. But regardless the hotline poll is a bit worrisome.
 
S

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
Cheebs said:
Uh they don't have a small sample size. 900~ is the norm for national polls. And the internals of R2K are sensing the same shift. It could be nothing but so far it is starting to creep up.

And we here at gaf always praised this poll whenever Obama got a boost in it or any poll for that matter. Randomly dismissing polls is hypocritical for PoliGAF.
Click to expand...
Smarter man than me or you makes this point -

20080919-rekpwdjtcbsrppc4yn8xjjpyty.jpg


It's a simulation of what statistical sampling error alone would do to the percentage margin between Obama and McCain in the Diageo/Hotline/National Journal/Atlantic Monthly daily tracking poll if the race were tied and if there was no motion at all in underlying voter preferences.
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It's a simulation of what statistical sampling error alone would do to the percentage margin between Obama and McCain in the Diageo/Hotline/National Journal/Atlantic Monthly daily tracking poll if the race were tied and if there was no motion at all in underlying voter preferences.
Click to expand...
It's a simulation of what statistical sampling error alone would do to the percentage margin between Obama and McCain in the Diageo/Hotline/National Journal/Atlantic Monthly daily tracking poll if the race were tied and if there was no motion at all in underlying voter preferences.
Click to expand...

Do I need to repeat it? A daily focus on polls and trying to parse what could essentially be static is meaningless. And for the record, a few posts ago I said that Election Day would likely be a lot closer than these polls indicate, so get your straw man elsewhere.
 
P

pxleyes

Banned
Palin is spewing the same shit on day 2 of her sunshine state trip. This woman needs to get out of my state NOW.
 
Z

Zeliard

Member
Cheebs said:
Research 2000/Daily Kos. He went down -2 yesterday in it and then down another -2 today in their internals. A net drop of -4 over 2 days. Like I said I am getting the feeling his high point during the bailout crisis is wearing off.


Uh they don't have a small sample size. 900~ is the norm for national polls. And the internals of R2K are sensing the same shift. It could be nothing but so far it is starting to creep up.

And we here at gaf always praised this poll whenever Obama got a boost in it or any poll for that matter. Randomly dismissing polls is hypocritical for PoliGAF.
Click to expand...

I don't think it's being randomly dismissed. It's being dismissed because other polls are not showing any real movement.
 
S

syllogism

Member
Cheebs said:
Battleground is a week long poll, it'd take a whole lot to move it over night. Like I said it is just a gut feeling based on 2 of the 3 polls this morning. We'll see what gallup says. But regardless the hotline poll is a bit worrisome.
Click to expand...
In fact even if Gallup shows "movement" (and it almost certainly will as Obama's dailies are probably around 49 and 50 while Mccain's 42-43) toward Mccain, there's still no reason to believe there's anything going on
 
C

Confidence Man

Member
Palin: Our opponents are looking to the past! OMFG :lol

How could she say that with a straight face after all the bs she's been spewing. :lol
 
H

harSon

Banned
Cheebs said:
Battleground is a week long poll, it'd take a whole lot to move it over night. Like I said it is just a gut feeling based on 2 of the 3 polls this morning. We'll see what gallup says. But regardless the hotline poll is a bit worrisome.
Click to expand...

You do this every week...
 
S

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
Confidence Man said:
Palin: Our opponents are looking to the past! OMFG :lol

How could she say that with a straight face after all the bs she's been spewing. :lol
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Ignorance and really partisan speech writers.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
harSon said:
You do this every week...
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Er no I don't. The last two weeks I don't think Obama went down in ANYTHING. I am 10000000% positive Obama will win, and by a sizable margin due to his ground game. That is beside the point and separate from my views on the polls. I have been with Obama far longer than you so calm down. ;)
 
X

XxenobladerxX

Member
gcubed said:
1) if ALL the national tracking polls start trending downward, then we worry

2) if ALL the national tracking polls start trending downward, the battleground state polls are usually about a week behind.


Ras didnt move, lets see what Gallup did at noon.
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Gallup is guaranteed is tighten up again,no way in hell obama can be at 50% for three days straight.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
syllogism said:
In fact even if Gallup shows "movement" (and it almost certainly will as Obama's dailies are probably around 49 and 50 while Mccain's 42-43) toward Mccain, there's still no reason to believe there's anything going on
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I have the feeling Obama's lead has peaked a bit, but Cheebs' getting worked up over one tracker's one-day sample is overdone. Take in a couple of day's polls in aggregate and let's see what we see.
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
DrEvil said:
"I just have to rely on the good judgement of the voters not to buy into these negative attack ads. Sooner or later people are going to figure out that if all you run is negative attack ads, you don't have much of a vision of the future, or you're not ready to articulate" - John McCain
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Thank you sir!
 
H

harSon

Banned
Cheebs said:
Er no I don't. The last two weeks I don't think Obama went down in ANYTHING. I am 10000000% positive Obama will win, and by a sizable margin due to his ground game. That is beside the point and separate from my views on the polls. I have been with Obama far longer than you so calm down. ;)
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Whatever helps you sleep at night :lol
 
S

Sharp

Member
Cheebs said:
Er no I don't. The last two weeks I don't think Obama went down in ANYTHING. I am 10000000% positive Obama will win, and by a sizable margin. That is beside the point. I have been with Obama far longer than you so calm down. ;)
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What's confusing me is, is the Hotline poll from yesterday? Because I can't really think of anything that happened yesterday that would have gotten at least 2% of voters, part of a previously undecided pool, to vote for him. A decrease by one percentage point for Obama makes some sense, but not +3 for McCain, not on a day when the Dow dropped precipitously, there were no debates, and Palin's speeches didn't have time to make an impact anywhere but Florida even if they were beneficial to the campaign. Thus I'm sort of inclined to treat this as statistical noise, at least for now. If ensuing polls over the next few days suggest a shift back towards McCain I'll be the first to agree with you.

Edit: So the poll had 6% of independents breaking for Obama, 6% for McCain, and 6% undecided? I mean yeah give or take a percent for people voting for the other party's candidate.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
harSon said:
Whatever helps you sleep at night :lol
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Er...the day he gave his speech at the DNC in 2004 I claimed to everyone I know that if Kerry loses I want Obama to run in 2008 and constantly stated on gaf in that time span that I hope Obama runs, I can even find you tons of posts from before 2007 where people here mocked me for thinking Obama would run. I don't think it is possible to support him at all earlier than I did. :lol


syllogism said:
Party id breakdown for hotline's sample today:

40%D, 38%R, 18%I.
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Really? Ok, obviously they did something really weird with their numbers then. There is NO WAY its a 2% id gap.
 
N

NewLib

Banned
Cheebs said:
Er...the day he gave his speech at the DNC in 2004 I claimed to everyone I know that if Kerry loses I want Obama to run in 2008 and constantly stated on gaf in that time span that I hope Obama runs. I don't think it is possible to support him at all earlier than I did. :lol
Click to expand...

Harson was the the delivering doctor. He KNEW.
 
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