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[GhaleonEB]

Party id breakdown for hotline's sample today:

40%D, 38%R, 18%I.

Wait, they don't control for party ID? That's the problem with today's sample, right there. :lol

 

[gcubed]

Er...the day he gave his speech at the DNC in 2004 I claimed to everyone I know that if Kerry loses I want Obama to run in 2008 and constantly stated on gaf in that time span that I hope Obama runs, I can even find you tons of posts from before 2007 where people here mocked me for thinking Obama would run. I don't think it is possible to support him at all earlier than I did. :lol



Really? Ok, obviously they did something really weird with their numbers then. There is NO WAY its a 2% id gap.

edit...

god damn it NewLib

 

[Sharp]

Wait, they don't control for party ID? That's the problem with today's sample, right there. :lol

Well if they take a large enough random sample it should get the party ID proportions roughly correct, at least from day to day. I mean, that's the whole point of random sampling.

 

[syllogism]

Well if they take a large enough random sample it should get the party ID proportions roughly correct, at least from day to day. I mean, that's the whole point of random sampling.

Only with 95% confidence and even then it moves within the margin of error, assuming we are talking about reasonable sample sizes here

 

[Barrett2]

So what do you guys think about Palin wanting to appear on SNL's Thursday show? Apparently she wants to do an impersonation of Tina Fey, or something.

I hope SNL goes the Oprah route, tell the Fundie princess to take a hike.

Link

 

[Cheebs]

Wait, they don't control for party ID? That's the problem with today's sample, right there. :lol

That is pretty shocking since Hotline/National Journal is VERY respected. Really weird. Even shitty pollsters like Zogby control party ID.

 

[scorcho]

// rubs forehead //

 

[Sharp]

Only with 95% confidence (assuming reasonable sample sizes) and even then it moves within the margin of error

What's the MoE for the Hotline poll? I know they don't use a huge sample but I always thought electoral polls got around that by controlling for demographics like party ID

 

[Cloudy]

I just saw Palin's stump speech for today. She seemed to lay off the Bill Ayer's crap. I guess the reaction's been bad for them or they've accomplished what they wanted to...

 

[scorcho]

I can't imagine them not controlling for party ID in their statistical models. Just because there is a slightly higher number of self-identified Republicans in the poll doesn't make it shit.

It's shit regardless.

 

[beelzebozo]

So what do you guys think about Palin wanting to appear on SNL's Thursday show? Apparently she wants to do an impersonation of Tina Fey, or something.

I hope SNL goes the Oprah route, tell the Fundie princess to take a hike.

Link

i wondered about this, and whether or not turning her down would be seen as s.n.l. having a political agenda

 

[DancingJesus]

Is there a place online where you can watch the entire debate?

I'd like to go to the football home game here but it's at the same time as the debate. :/

 

[Sharp]

i wondered about this, and whether or not turning her down would be seen as s.n.l. having a political agenda

You don't deserve that tag.

 

[bud]

Is there a place online where you can watch the entire debate?

I'd like to go to the football home game here but it's at the same time as the debate. :/

hulu will probably upload it, just like they did with the previous two debates.

 

[Mason]

I know a couple people who work for SNL and they're happy Sarah Palin is in the news. She kind of writes the skits herself. I'm sure they'd like to have her on (good for ratings) but there might be other circumstances preventing it.

 

[beelzebozo]

You don't deserve that tag.

elaborate

 

[syllogism]

I can't imagine them not controlling for party ID in their statistical models. Just because there is a slightly higher number of self-identified Republicans in the poll doesn't make it shit.

It's shit regardless.

SurveyUSA and Gallup don't control party id either, I don't see what's the big deal here. The party id variation doesn't make it shit, it just makes it more suspicious, especially when we can compare it to their typical spread.

 

[Barrett2]

i wondered about this, and whether or not turning her down would be seen as s.n.l. having a political agenda

Or maybe they should have her appear, but at the last minute pull the cue cards, forcing her to do her schtick from memory. The crash & burnage would be awesome.

 

[scorcho]

i wondered about this, and whether or not turning her down would be seen as s.n.l. having a political agenda

It's not in SNL's interest to turn her down - it'll help ratings further and give Fey more fodder to work with.

 

[Sharp]

elaborate

Well okay, maybe you do. It just didn't seem to fit you well. I was originally going to respond that it was weird that some people could just demand a place on SNL and be expected to get it, while if you or I tried that they would laugh at us, but the tag confused me.

 

[The Lamonster]

So at what point is Sarah Palin going to start campaigning for 2012?

If the polls look like this in two weeks, I'd say that's a good time to start.

 

[Barrett2]

It's not in SNL's interest to turn her down - it'll help ratings further and give Fey more fodder to work with.

Remember when Dana Carvey impersonated Dennis Miller side-by-side with Dennis Miller? That was classic SNL. Having Fey & Palin both as Palin side-by-side could be very memorable, and a ratings bonanza.

I know a couple people who work for SNL and they're happy Sarah Palin is in the news. She kind of writes the skits herself. I'm sure they'd like to have her on (good for ratings) but there might be other circumstances preventing it.

Is one of those people Keenan? If so, punch him in the face for not being funny.

 

[scorcho]

Heard this on the local AM station and holy crap it's true -

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20081006150152.aspx

LULz

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

So at what point is Sarah Palin going to start campaigning for 2012?

If the polls look like this in two weeks, I'd say that's a good time to start.

"No matter what happens, I will always fight for you." etc blah blah blah.

 

[Haunted]

You guys see this political ad yet? Obama really got his ass tore up in this one.

:lol

 

[ManDudeChild]

Or maybe they should have her appear, but at the last minute pull the cue cards, forcing her to do her schtick from memory. The crash & burnage would be awesome.

Yeah, that would shut anyone up that says snl has a political agenda

So lemme throw this one at you. Tina Fey pulls off a really good Palin impression ... but Tina Fey is hot and Palin is not. Does this not blow anyone's mind?

 

[scorcho]

Tina Fey is also 503 years younger than Palin.

 

[Deku]

Bad morning of polls?

 

[typhonsentra]

Bad morning of polls?

Nah, it was just Hotline which we've discussed used bizarre sampling. R2000 is still 8 points ahead although it was higher two days ago and Rasmussen has him tied for his all-time best.

 

[XxenobladerxX]

Go back to bed Deku.

 

[The Lamonster]

FYI - the lead will shrink eventually, and McCain might even take the lead again before it's all over. So, you know, relax when it happens.

 

[Barrett2]

FYI - the lead will shrink eventually, and McCain might even take the lead again before it's all over. So, you know, relax when it happens.

What are you, the Hopium police? You're killing my buzz with that kind of talk.

 

[gcubed]

FYI - the lead will shrink eventually, and McCain might even take the lead again before it's all over. So, you know, relax when it happens.

If McCain takes the lead in all the daily tracking polls before election day, Obama, and GAF, are in trouble

 

[Particle Physicist]

Can McCain Pull Off an October Surprise?


http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5968910&page=1

anyone else reminded of how everyone said 'if it weren't Clinton fighting Obama, this race would be over', 'never count out a clinton', etc?

sounds quite familiar

i think its more like, if obama werent black, this thing would be over.. never count out the racists in this country!

 

[Shig]

I hope Fey, Poehler, and Palin do a skit in a pool and then a light fixture falls in.

 

[Imm0rt4l]

I just saw Palin's stump speech for today. She seemed to lay off the Bill Ayer's crap. I guess the reaction's been bad for them or they've accomplished what they wanted to...

I love how she said her opponent continues to talk about the past

 

[Beer Monkey]

Ohio voter registration up 485,000

Doesn't include stuff that hasn't been processed yet. Registrations postmarked by yesterday's deadline will be accepted.

Cuyahoga County (Democrat central) is up 88,000 over 2004.

This is good.

 

[Kipz]

I almost hope McCain wins just to see how bad things can get.

 

[Tobor]

I almost hope McCain wins just to see how bad things can get.

I can't stand this kind of statement. It's defeatism. Nothing personal.

 

[Particle Physicist]

I almost hope McCain wins just to see how bad things can get.

:/ why the hell would you want that?

 

[Steve Youngblood]

So at what point is Sarah Palin going to start campaigning for 2012?

If the polls look like this in two weeks, I'd say that's a good time to start.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: if the McCain Palin ticket does indeed lose, expect Palin to return to Alaska and never be heard from again. Either that, or she becomes a commentator. She won't run successfully for president in 2012.

 

[snacknuts]

Goddamnit. A (normally) very rational friend of mine is trying to bring up the Rev. Wright stuff as a concern about Obama. What's the most comprehensive link I can send her to debunk any of those concerns?

 

[SCReuter]

Elisabeth Hasselbeck is at it again, and Sherri Shepherd of all people is owning her.

Edit: Owning her bad.

 

[ViperVisor]

Sherri is getting feisty.

JOYGASM!

 

[Cianalas]

:/ why the hell would you want that?

I think he's Australian. It's not his country that would be electing McCain.

 

[Particle Physicist]

I think he's Australian. It's not his country that would be electing McCain.

well, he's an idiot if he doesnt think this would affect the whole world.

 

[SCReuter]

Behar to Hasselbeck, "You listen to Sean Hannity too much."

 

[OmniGamer]

Elisabeth Hasselbeck is at it again, and Sherri Shepherd of all people is owning her.

Edit: Owning her bad.

Yep yep...i'm glad she bought up McCain dumping his first wife and running off with Cindy. Elisabeth is just...i mean...damn, is she running for Ann Coulter or something?

 

[MaddenNFL64]

I can't stand this kind of statement. It's defeatism. Nothing personal.

Thought it was detached nihilism.

Do it for the lulz kinda deal.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Goddamnit. A (normally) very rational friend of mine is trying to bring up the Rev. Wright stuff as a concern about Obama. What's the most comprehensive link I can send her to debunk any of those concerns?

I don't think there is a comprehensive link. Really, I think the best argument is just to remind anyone concerned about Wright that this issue was in the headlines for weeks during the primaries, and it failed to be a definitive game-changer for Clinton then. Why is it going to matter now? Is this what they're expecting: "I'm terrified about the economy, and don't think McCain has a plan to fix it. That makes me lean Obama. However, I had completely forgotten about that angry and divisive former pastor of Obama's, so I'm voting McCain!"