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v1cious · Mar 17, 2008

lol, anyone watching CNN? how embarrassing.

Zeed · Mar 17, 2008

APF said:
If I were in a state where my vote mattered, I'd vote for Obama.

What the fuck?

Amir0x · Mar 17, 2008

harSon said:
There are 9 states outside of Pennsylvania as well

well yes, exactly! I mean in the current run not many states have the type of votes she would need to make a big turnaround, barring big wins in North Carolina and Indiana - that would really make things nail biting.

gcubed · Mar 17, 2008

Cheebs said:
IMO I think it helps Obama in the long run for his negatives to go up and this to be dragged out. Why? Because that would happen anyway. The media is digging up his dirty laundry and smacking him around now.

Would you rather have the Rezko story pop up in the middle of March or the weekend before the general election? Gotta look at this with some perspective.

i agree that it actually makes him a stronger candidate as they are dragging anything and everything out now. Right now, unless something catastropic happens, Obama is the Dem Nominee. The more they get all this shit out of the way now, the less the Republicans have come Novemeber.

I'm trying to look on the bright side.

Clevinger · Mar 17, 2008

v1cious said:
lol, anyone watching CNN? how embarrassing.

what happened?

siamesedreamer · Mar 17, 2008

GhaleonEB said:
From what I've read today he's been defending Wright and the church.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

Its gonna be really interesting to see what he says tomorrow. The idea that he's co-opting his church's excuse is...interesting.

What time is it scheduled?

siamesedreamer · Mar 17, 2008

gcubed said:
The more they get all this shit out of the way now, the less the Republicans have come Novemeber.

Not really. The Swiftboaters came out in April and were largely forgot about until they resurfaced in September.

Obama and Wright have provided more than enough footage to keep the 527s very busy this fall. The commercials that will run are gonna be very harsh I imagine.

v1cious · Mar 17, 2008

Clevinger said:
what happened?

they were going around New York asking people about Omama's relgion, and like 9 ot of 10 said he was muslim.

gcubed · Mar 17, 2008

siamesedreamer said:
Not really. The Swiftboaters came out in April and were largely forgot about until they resurfaced in September.

Obama and Wright have provided more than enough footage to keep the 527s very busy this fall. The commercials that will run are gonna be very harsh I imagine.

maybe my words were mistaken, but i agree that if he cant handle whats coming now, he wont be able to handle the GE

grandjedi6 · Mar 17, 2008

v1cious said:
they were going around New York asking people about Omama's relgion, and like 9 ot of 10 said he was muslim.

thekad · Mar 17, 2008

v1cious said:
they were going around New York asking people about Omama's relgion, and like 9 ot of 10 said he was muslim.

13% actually.

lopaz · Mar 17, 2008

gcubed said:
i agree that it actually makes him a stronger candidate as they are dragging anything and everything out now. Right now, unless something catastropic happens, Obama is the Dem Nominee. The more they get all this shit out of the way now, the less the Republicans have come Novemeber.

I'm trying to look on the bright side.

Psh. I think the Iraq thing is going to bite the Dem's assways. Methinks opinion is turning against withdrawal

human5892 · Mar 17, 2008

Inspired by Chuck Todd's comment, I decided to write this letter to NPR. Normally, I'm satisfied with their political coverage, but they have been lapping up Hillary's distorted narrative right along with most of the other major outlets.

I am extremely disappointed with NPR's -- along with most of the rest of the media's -- coverage of the remaining two Democratic Presidential candidates.

Despite it being almost impossible for Hillary Clinton to pull ahead now in either popular vote or delegate count, the majority of the media continues to buy into her narrative that it's anyone's race, and happily follows along each time she moves the goalposts to redefine how to measure her success.

I'm inclined to side with MSNBC's Chuck Todd, one of the few who is paying attention to the delegate and popular vote math in this race, when he said, "There is a media obsession with the idea that this is a 50/50 race." I suspect that in the interests of perpetuating the alluring story that the race is still up in the air, many in the media are deliberately choosing to ignore the almost insurmountable math against Clinton. Unfortunately, by continuing to shape this story in a fashion that is not faithful to reality, NPR is not only doing its listeners a grave disservice, but the Democratic Party as a whole.

The media can and does have a significant impact in when this contest will finally be laid to rest. I implore NPR to hasten its end by reporting the facts, which are simple: even a big Hilary win in PA -- which would undoubtedly be branded as yet another "Clinton Comeback" -- would not be enough to overcome her ever-growing deficits in the popular vote and the delegate count.

harSon · Mar 17, 2008

Clevinger said:
what happened?

13% of the people they interviewed on the streets thought Obama was Muslim.

gcubed · Mar 17, 2008

harSon said:
13% of the people they interviewed on the streets thought Obama was Muslim.

9 out of 10 is the new 13%

gcubed · Mar 17, 2008

lopaz said:
Psh. I think the Iraq thing is going to bite the Dem's assways. Methinks opinion is turning against withdrawal

i dont buy it.

Right now the economy is the #1 topic. Want to steer the convo back to withdrawl?

"The war is costing us 12 billion dollars a DAY"

The general population isnt very smart. The only reason why the opinion is even remotely getting close to turning against a withdrawl is because you have no competitor to a republican candidate that keeps spouting off about staying in Iraq forever.

Triumph · Mar 17, 2008

I don't think Hillary is going to do as well in PA as many people think. She'll probably win but it will be single digits. Factor in the fact that she forgot to submit a full slate of delegates and they might split the delegates out of the state.

Of course, the media will portray this as a "big win" for Hilldog.

lopaz · Mar 17, 2008

gcubed said:
i dont buy it.

Right now the economy is the #1 topic. Want to steer the convo back to withdrawl?

"The war is costing us 12 billion dollars a DAY"

The general population isnt very smart. The only reason why the opinion is even remotely getting close to turning against a withdrawl is because you have no competitor to a republican candidate that keeps spouting off about staying in Iraq forever.

BUT TEH SURGE

AniHawk · Mar 17, 2008

Triumph said:
I don't think Hillary is going to do as well in PA as many people think. She'll probably win but it will be single digits. Factor in the fact that she forgot to submit a full slate of delegates and they might split the delegates out of the state.

Of course, the media will portray this as a "big win" for Hilldog.

If she "wins big" here (not in reality, but in media-land), what else do they have to pimp for her? Michigan revote? Puerto Rico? Seems that reality will have to catch up to them eventually.

human5892 · Mar 17, 2008

AniHawk said:
If she "wins big" here (not in reality, but in media-land), what else do they have to pimp for her? Michigan revote? Puerto Rico? Seems that reality will have to catch up to them eventually.

Her campaign will try and frame whatever the next contest is that she is expected to win as the next "big test"...and they will probably succeed.

gkryhewy · Mar 17, 2008

AniHawk said:
If she "wins big" here (not in reality, but in media-land), what else do they have to pimp for her? Michigan revote? Puerto Rico? Seems that reality will have to catch up to them eventually.

They will be stunned - stunned - when she eventually has to concede. None of them will have seen it coming, and they'll be scrambling like hell.

Cheebs · Mar 17, 2008

Triumph said:
I don't think Hillary is going to do as well in PA as many people think. She'll probably win but it will be single digits. Factor in the fact that she forgot to submit a full slate of delegates and they might split the delegates out of the state.

Of course, the media will portray this as a "big win" for Hilldog.

After your texas and ohio predictions I am willing to bet the opposite of what you predict will happen sir.

GhaleonEB · Mar 17, 2008

human5892 said:
Her campaign will try and frame whatever the next contest is that she is expected to win as the next "big test"...and they will probably succeed.

I'm not sure what that is. The ones she's favored in after PA are all pretty small. I expect them to try, but still.

KRS7 · Mar 17, 2008

Does she need to even win big in PA? I have a feeling that if she wins by even a small margin, and nets less than 10 delegates, the media will play it as a huge win for her. They don't seem to understand the proportional system.

thekad · Mar 17, 2008

Yeah, the PA aftermath will be interesting to watch. Once the media realizes after the "Third Clinton Comeback" that she is still largely behind in votes, delegates, and states, I really have no idea how they'll spin it.

Cheebs · Mar 17, 2008

GhaleonEB said:
I'm not sure what that is. The ones she's favored in after PA are all pretty small. I expect them to try, but still.

Puerto Rico has over 4 million registered voters, and the state is basically 99.9% democrats (the puerto rico verision of them). A big win there would flip the popular vote totals.

But will supers really go with the popular vote if the popular vote is decided by a country that isn't even a state and thus cant vote in a general? It's arguable to go with the popular vote winner, but the popular vote winner purely due to an outside country? Haha.

Triumph · Mar 17, 2008

Cheebs said:
After your texas and ohio predictions I am willing to bet the opposite of what you predict will happen sir.

I still maintain that Obama would have won Texas outright if the Limbaugh thing hadn't happened. Also would have netted 11 delegates out of Mississippi instead of 5.

Piper Az · Mar 17, 2008

While I don't buy Hillary's rhetoric, I find Obama's inability to win big states a bit troubling. I didn't mind CA and NY since those were still the days when Obama was a bit unknown. But now, he's the frontrunner...why isn't he gaining popularity in PA?

Cheebs · Mar 17, 2008

Triumph said:
I still maintain that Obama would have won Texas outright if the Limbaugh thing hadn't happened.

I blame the 3 AM ad more than Limbaugh. But both were the main factors. the only good thing about PA is that PA is closed from republican tampering. But PA is still Ohio on steriods in terms of white blue collar voters and party machine control...

Tamanon · Mar 17, 2008

Piper Az said:
While I don't buy Hillary's rhetoric, I find Obama's inability to win big states a bit troubling. I didn't mind CA and NY since those were still the days when Obama was a bit unknown. But now, he's the frontrunner...why isn't he gaining popularity in PA?

Um, because he just started campaigning there this weekend?

Piper Az · Mar 17, 2008

Tamanon said:
Um, because he just started campaigning there this weekend?

He campaigned hard in OHIO and he still lost by a large margin (nevermind the Republican switchovers). I can blame TX at latinos...

If he can't win PA after giving his all, I would be scratching my head in confusion.

GhaleonEB · Mar 17, 2008

Piper Az said:
He campaigned hard in OHIO and he still lost by a large margin (nevermind the Republican switchovers). I can blame TX at latinos...

If he can't win PA after giving his all, I would be scratching my head in confusion.

Huge blue collar working class. They remember the Clinton years as good ones, and need a reason to change their view from a known commodity to someone new.

gcubed · Mar 17, 2008

Piper Az said:
He campaigned hard in OHIO and he still lost by a large margin (nevermind the Republican switchovers). I can blame TX at latinos...

If he can't win PA after giving his all, I would be scratching my head in confusion.

why? i still dont get this shit that Primary wins = GE wins. PA is a blue state, Obama will win it in the GE.

Piper Az · Mar 18, 2008

gcubed said:
why? i still dont get this shit that Primary wins = GE wins. PA is a blue state, Obama will win it in the GE.

Who said anything about Primary = GE? The fact that Obama may not win over PA means he can't close the deal. Sure, he may end up with the edge in delegates and win the nomination, but it doesn't mean he is a sure favorite among Democrats.

Lefty42o · Mar 18, 2008

grandjedi6 said:
APF: Not voting gets bundled with the apathetic vote too easily. It's better to vote for a 3rd party or write in a nonsense candidate to show your displeasure

exactly. all staying home does is make you not part of the process. saying otherwise is a lie to yourself.

electricpirate · Mar 18, 2008

gcubed said:
why? i still dont get this shit that Primary wins = GE wins. PA is a blue state, Obama will win it in the GE.

This.

Primaries aren't just to establish electability, it's also to establish the person you want to actually be president.

In PA also has an impressive dem. machine, which is all pulling for Hilary at this point. Dem. establishment has been pulling for hilary since the start, so this helps her in the state.

grandjedi6 · Mar 18, 2008

Piper Az said:
Who said anything about Primary = GE? The fact that Obama may not win over PA means he can't close the deal. Sure, he may end up with the edge in delegates and win the nomination, but it doesn't mean he is a sure favorite among Democrats.

Just because Hillary is doing better, does not mean Obama can't do well. Most of the states have been close between the two so far, and yet they are both doing better than McCain in every state. What does that tell you?

Atrus · Mar 18, 2008

Piper Az said:
Who said anything about Primary = GE? The fact that Obama may not win over PA means he can't close the deal. Sure, he may end up with the edge in delegates and win the nomination, but it doesn't mean he is a sure favorite among Democrats.

As on CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/17/poll.democrats/index.html

typhonsentra · Mar 18, 2008

O'Reilly devoted nearly the full hour to Wright.... again. I wonder how Hannity will cover his.

Tamanon · Mar 18, 2008

typhonsentra said:
O'Reilly devoted nearly the full hour to Wright.... again. I wonder how Hannity will cover his.

Hannity spent most of the radio show today on it.

Piper Az · Mar 18, 2008

Atrus said:
As on CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/17/poll.democrats/index.html

If, as the poll indicates, that the majority of democrats prefer Obama, tell me why he will have such hard time winning voters in PA? Why is the party still so evenly divided? He will win the nomination, but he will do it no so convincingly. He is the frontrunner but not a strong one. The party is still evenly split between the two camps. Look at John McCain when he became the GOP frontrunner - he had easier time winning states. Same thing cannot be said of Obama - he's still fighting with all he's got. Don't get me wrong; I voted for the dude and suppport him.

typhonsentra · Mar 18, 2008

Tamanon said:
Hannity spent most of the radio show today on it.

:lol OMG, they have the ineffective Powers in for Colmes. This is going to be a massacre.

AniHawk · Mar 18, 2008

Piper Az said:
If, as the poll indicates, that the majority of democrats prefer Obama, tell me why he will have such hard time winning voters in PA? Why is the party still so evenly divided? He will win the nomination, but he will do it no so convincingly. He is the frontrunner but not a strong one. The party is still evenly split between the two camps. Look at John McCain when he became the GOP frontrunner - he had easier time winning states. Same thing cannot be said of Obama - he's still fighting with all he's got. Don't get me wrong; I voted for the dude and suppport him.

John McCain didn't have an opponent with the name recognition Hillary Clinton has. She was the frontrunner for a long time until people actually started voting.

Piper Az · Mar 18, 2008

AniHawk said:
John McCain didn't have an opponent with the name recognition Hillary Clinton has. She was the frontrunner for a long time until people actually started voting.

Exactly - the democrats are pretty evenly split between two strong candidates. Not one of them is dominant over the other.

siamesedreamer · Mar 18, 2008

FOX:

56% of people are less likely to vote for Obama now including 44% of DEMs

I have no idea if that is their own poll or if they are quoting another one...

Tamanon · Mar 18, 2008

siamesedreamer said:
FOX:

56% of people are less likely to vote for Obama now including 44% of DEMs

I have no idea if that is their own poll or if they are quoting another one...

That's kinda a weird sounding poll. That's not saying that they won't vote for him, but are less likely.....odd.

siamesedreamer · Mar 18, 2008

Atrus · Mar 18, 2008

Piper Az said:
If, as the poll indicates, that the majority of democrats prefer Obama, tell me why he will have such hard time winning voters in PA? Why is the party still so evenly divided? He will win the nomination, but he will do it no so convincingly. He is the frontrunner but not a strong one. The party is still evenly split between the two camps. Look at John McCain when he became the GOP frontrunner - he had easier time winning states. Same thing cannot be said of Obama - he's still fighting with all he's got. Don't get me wrong; I voted for the dude and suppport him.

Because he worked for it and wasn't anointed the inevitable candidate last fall. He makes huge gains in states when he starts to campaign there but obviously he can't always win upsets.

Obama has to make in-roads while Clinton wants it to be a royal appointment, and their strategies right now play into that. It's just that there's a lot of people who agree with her mentality. I'd say the vast majority of her supporters will argue the following points:

- She is more "experienced".
- She's a woman.
- Things were great in the late 90's/ Bill will be back.

They are not points Obama could run on, nor any of the other democratic candidates for that matter. I'm sure having a competitive race runs counter to their thinking to begin with.

harSon · Mar 18, 2008

siamesedreamer said:
http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/031708DailyUpdateGraph1.gif

Was posted this morning, 3 pages back. Thanks for the daily Obama doom and gloom though.

Slurpy · Mar 18, 2008

harSon said:
Was posted this morning, 3 pages back. Thanks for the daily Obama doom and gloom though.

Yeah, but this morning was a long time ago. Siamese needed to post it to blow his wad again.

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