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[The Librarian]

Great, now you can tell me who's in your avatar.

Check your PM.

Oh and all of you have fun reading this (three page article from Politico):
McCain takes aim at Obama's character.

 

[reilo]

Time for Gregory! This is gonna be fun*!

*

Spoiler

Political slander and facepalms

EDIT: Did Gregory just spin Obama being surrounded by the likes of Warren Buffet as his economic advisers as a bad thing?

 

[Tamanon]

Time for Gregory! This is gonna be fun*!

*

Spoiler

Political slander and facepalms

Right off the bat too.

"John, this meeting seemed more like an analyst meeting for a company, not something to reassure the sheeple!"

 

[PhoenixDark]

hmm

As Senator Barack Obama turns to the choice of his running mate, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine has emerged as one of the campaign’s potential finalists, sources familiar with conversations in Richmond and in Chicago said.

Kaine, an early Obama supporter whose biography nicely dovetails with the Illinois senator’s, "ranks very, very high on the short list," said a source who has spoken recently to senior Obama aides about Kaine.

Kaine "is getting a critical examination," the source said.

The 50-year old Virginia governor is among a handful of logical, and much-discussed, choices to join Obama on the campaign trail. Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, former Georgia Sen, Sam Nunn, and Delawawre Senator Joe Biden are among others frequently mentioned.

Obama and his top advisors met Monday afternoon at the Washington, D.C. law office of Eric Holder, one of the leaders of his vice presidential vetting team.

Kaine's position as governor of a state the Obama campaign hopes to make a key battleground and his background as a Spanish-speaking former Catholic missionary and civil rights lawyer make him a strong potential pick.

Kaine could serve as ambassador, his proponents say, to four key groups: Virginians, Catholics, working-class white voters, and Hispanics. (Kaine can be seen in one YouTube video endorsing Obama in proficient Spanish.

The obvious stumbling block: a lack of foreign policy and Washington experience.

But Kaine’s political base of operations – some 100 miles south of Washington – seems to fit Obama's hint, in an NBC interview taped Saturday, that he'd prefer a Beltway outsider.

"I'm going to want somebody with independence — who's willing to tell me where he thinks, or she thinks, I'm wrong," he said. "And I'm going to want somebody who shares a vision of the country: where we need to go — that we've got to fundamentally change not only our policies, but how politics work, how business is done in Washington."

Obama spokesman Bill Burton declined to comment on any aspect of the vice presidential selection process.

"When the governor agreed to be the national co-chair for the campaign obviously he made a commitment to do whatever he can to help Obama get elected," said Kaine communications director Delacey Skinner. "He's always flattered to be mentioned, but he also made a pledge at that point that any strategic conversations he was going to have with the campaign he would keep private."

Two Virginia Democrats close to Kaine, however, said Kaine and his staff believe that he is being very seriously considered, and that he and his staff had met with lawyers and submitted piles of documents to the campaign.

Another source familiar with Kaine's vetting said, however, that he hasn't personally spoken to Caroline Kennedy who, with Holder, heads Obama's search team.

Kaine's circle is "under the impression that he's being looked at very, very seriously but he's not the only one," said one of the two Democrats close to Kaine.

"The third floor is definitely focused on this in a real way," said the other Virginia Democrat, referring to Kaine's Capitol offices. "They've been talking about what would happen if he had to leave, they're very keyed up on it."

Beyond Kaine's demographic appeal and his early support – dating back to February of 2007 – he and Obama are "simpatico" said Larry Sabato, a professor of political science at the University of Virginia. "They are two of a kind."

"He would arguably add a point or two" in Virginia, Sabato said, adding that Kaine's downside is his relatively short tenure in a state that limits governors to one term.

"He's been governor of Virginia for two and half years and putting him on the ticket reinforces the argument of lack of experience," he said.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/12115.html

 

[reilo]

Right off the bat too.

"John, this meeting seemed more like an analyst meeting for a company, not something to reassure the sheeple!"

Jesus. See my edit above.

He literally spun Obama having Warren FUCKING Buffet as his economic adviser as a BAD thing.

 

[The Librarian]

hmm


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/12115.html

So I Kaine and Sebelius are the two most likely candidates I figure?

 

[maynerd]

 

[maximum360]

Jesus. See my edit above.

He literally spun Obama having Warren FUCKING Buffet as his economic adviser as a BAD thing.

This is the Gregory daily special.

Nothing to see here. Move along, move along...

 

[Door2Dawn]

Hillary

 

[reilo]

Gregory is not sold on Obama yet? Who would have thunk.

 

[reilo]

I finally figured out who Maddow reminds me of with the hairstyle she's got going:

 

[KilledByBill]

This is the Gregory daily special.

Nothing to see here. Move along, move along...

He is so stupefyingly bland I find it hard to get riled up about him. Like when Scarborough or Tucker Carlson get going you know it. I'm just constantly wondering why Gergory even has a show, he can't even control his panel half the time.

Glad to hear that Tim Kaine is still in the thick of it for VP. I've been on his bandwagon for a while since he fits in with the message of change and picking a Washington outsider (though someone who still has executive experience). He apparently has some personal misgivings about abortion rights and supports abstinence which could hold him back.

 

[APF]

Why do you guys live-blog the political gossip shows every night?

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

I finally figured out who Maddow reminds me of with the hairstyle she's got going:

Forget the hairstyle! They both look like each other PERIOD!

And I don't get David's problem with Buffet. The man feels like he should be paying more taxes and has studied our tax system.

 

[Tamanon]

Eh, Rachel looks more manly than Elvis

 

[reilo]

Why do you guys live-blog the political gossip shows every night?

Someone has to counter-act your posts proclaiming that the media is in love with Obama. Actually watching the shows gives me a better perspective than some arbitrary percentages.

 

[The Librarian]

Someone has to counter-act your posts proclaiming that the media is in love with Obama. Actually watching the shows gives me a better perspective than some arbitrary percentages.

Why do you guys live-blog the political gossip shows every night?

Oh you two give it a rest.

 

[TDG]

Why do you guys live-blog the political gossip shows every night?

So we can hate all of the shows simultaneously, and together. Instead of Two Minute's Hate, it's more like Entire Night's Outrage.

 

[Hootie]

Oh you two give it a rest.

This war of words shall never end so long as APF roams the lands of PoliGAF.

 

[reilo]

Oh you two give it a rest.

We've been live blogging for months now. I don't know why he is bringing it up now. Some people are at work during this time and they like being kept in touch what goes down on the major political talk shows.

 

[StoOgE]

I have a serious question: Why in the hell is Gallup trying to predict likely voters at this point and what is it based on, because all other polls show that Obama has more "strong Obama" than "leaning Obama" and McCain has more "leaning McCain than Strong McCain".

My gut says they are basing it off of past voter turnout, which Obama has already shown isnt going to be the case this year. Because the smell test says likely voters *should* favor Obama at this point.

 

[The Librarian]

We've been live blogging for months now. I don't know why he is bring it up now. Some people are at work during this time and they like being kept in touch what goes down on the major political talk shows.

I personally don't mind it (would actually like to be apart of it if it weren't for Civ Rev), and you're right, but just try to ignore him if he says something like that.

 

[maximum360]

David Gregory has always been passionate about the damage done to the country by the Bush administration and Karl Rove: http://ijustdontfinddavidgregoryimpressive.blogspot.com/

 

[KRS7]

I have a serious question: Why in the hell is Gallup trying to predict likely voters at this point and what is it based on, because all other polls show that Obama has more "strong Obama" than "leaning Obama" and McCain has more "leaning McCain than Strong McCain".

My gut says they are basing it off of past voter turnout, which Obama has already shown isnt going to be the case this year. Because the smell test says likely voters *should* favor Obama at this point.

I have to agree with that sentiment. Nothing I've seen leads me to believe that McCain has his based fired up and enthusiastic. In the past two days I've spoken with 3 people that are anti-Obama and are leaning towards McCain. But then one of them (in his late 30's) admitted he has never voted in his life and probably won't vote this election either. The others aren't exactly the voting type either. It just seems counter-intuitive that McCain will be ahead when you factor in likely voters. If the religious right doesn't get excited, I predict really low turnout on the republican side.

 

[maximum360]

What I would give to get Harwood to shut up. He keeps on interrupting to insert a lame joke most times to crickets....several times in one show.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I have a serious question: Why in the hell is Gallup trying to predict likely voters at this point and what is it based on, because all other polls show that Obama has more "strong Obama" than "leaning Obama" and McCain has more "leaning McCain than Strong McCain".

My gut says they are basing it off of past voter turnout, which Obama has already shown isnt going to be the case this year. Because the smell test says likely voters *should* favor Obama at this point.

Gallup addressed that on their site today. (I just went looking for the answer in response to your post): http://www.gallup.com/poll/109135/Who-Likely-Voters-When-They-Matter.aspx

There's a lot of detail explaining - and caveatting - the use of "likely voter" models, but here is how they filtered them out in the poll:

Gallup has a general set of ways of determining likely voters, which have proved to be quite accurate in past congressional and presidential elections. Voters are asked a series of questions about their interest in the election, their plans to vote, and their previous history in voting. The total sample is then divided into two groups: One group is made up of the 60% of voters who score the highest on these measures and are therefore considered most likely to vote, and the other group is composed of voters who are less likely to vote. (The 60% estimate can vary depending on information about likely turnout.)

At this point, the USA Today/Gallup poll is using a set of three questions to determine likely voters:

1. How much thought have you given to the upcoming election for president -- quite a lot, or only a little?

1 Quite a lot

2 SOME (vol.)

3 Only a little

4 NONE (vol.)

5 DON'T KNOW

6 REFUSED

2. How often would you say you vote -- always, nearly always, part of the time, or seldom?

1 Always

2 Nearly always

3 Part of the time

4 Seldom

5 NEVER(vol.)

6 DON'T KNOW

7 REFUSED

3. Do you, yourself, plan to vote in the presidential election this November, or not?

1 Yes

2 No

3 DON'T KNOW

4 REFUSED

Closer to Election Day, Gallup will expand this list of questions to the traditional seven-question likely voter model.

That resulted in them tossing a big chunk of Obama's supporters.

 

[TDG]

I have to agree with that sentiment. Nothing I've seen leads me to believe that McCain has his based fired up and enthusiastic. In the past two days I've spoken with 3 people that are anti-Obama and are leaning towards McCain. But then one of them (in his late 30's) admitted he has never voted in his life and probably won't vote this election either. The others aren't exactly the voting type either. It just seems counter-intuitive that McCain will be ahead when you factor in likely voters. If the religious right doesn't get excited, I predict really low turnout on the republican side.

I wouldn't get too confident. Enthusiasm for the candidates is not really a big deal... college students can yell and scream for Obama while older people nap in the presence of McCain, but in the end if the college students forget about the election, as many do, it's not going to matter how loudly they cheered at rallies.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I wouldn't get too confident. Enthusiasm for the candidates is not really a big deal... college students can yell and scream for Obama while older people nap in the presence of McCain, but in the end if the college students forget about the election, as many do, it's not going to matter how loudly they cheered at rallies.

And old people are among the most dependable voter block. Us young'uns? Not so much.

But this election may well be different. I hope it's different.

 

[The Librarian]

And old people are among the most dependable voter block. Us young'uns? Not so much.

But this election may well be different. I hope it's different.

Ghal, what are you talking about? You're old.

 

[WickedAngel]

I wouldn't get too confident. Enthusiasm for the candidates is not really a big deal... college students can yell and scream for Obama while older people nap in the presence of McCain, but in the end if the college students forget about the election, as many do, it's not going to matter how loudly they cheered at rallies.

The fact of the matter is that the grassroots movement has been unlike any other in the history of a presidential election. If you think that all those people who are so invested in this are going to sit it out, you have another thing coming. It seems like the primaries would have laid these types of questions to rest already.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Ghal, what are you talking about? You're old.

And you're not even old enough to vote!

Guess who's voting this fall?

Spoiler

Me!

 

[Particle Physicist]

Gallup addressed that on their site today. (I just went looking for the answer in response to your post): http://www.gallup.com/poll/109135/Who-Likely-Voters-When-They-Matter.aspx

There's a lot of detail explaining - and caveatting - the use of "likely voter" models, but here is how they filtered them out in the poll:



That resulted in them tossing a big chunk of Obama's supporters.

:lol well.. a large chunk of obama supporters are first time voters.. so i can see why: "2. How often would you say you vote -- always, nearly always, part of the time, or seldom?" would toss them off..

so stupid.

 

[The Librarian]

And you're not even old enough to vote!

Grrrrr.

Guess who's voting this fall?

Spoiler

Me!

Jeez! Thanks for giving me the answer! My first choice was going to be Santa Claus, but oh well.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

Hillary Clinton supporters donated $11,000 to McCain's campaign last month!? :lol

 

[TDG]

And you're not even old enough to vote!

Guess who's voting this fall?

Spoiler

Me!

:lol :lol :lol

 

[KRS7]

:lol well.. a large chunk of obama supporters are first time voters.. so i can see why: "2. How often would you say you vote -- always, nearly always, part of the time, or seldom?" would toss them off..

so stupid.

This election will be my first time voting for president. But I did vote in the 2006 elections as well as a couple smaller ones. I think I will do more than just vote though. I plan on volunteering my car on election day to give people rides to the polls. Every little bit help and winning Ohio will likely be crucial come November.

 

[APF]

We've been live blogging for months now. I don't know why he is bringing it up now.

And the election's been going on for months now, but we're all still talking. The liveblogging (dk if you hyphenate this word) just seems kinda creepy, even moreso than the obsessive focus on the daily polls. Saying "OMG I can't believe that guy said that thing he's such a crow" seems completely meaningless and uh... perspectiveless. I know you have to fill up your evenings with something, but these talk shows are intellectual garbage.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Grrrrr.

Being old has its advantages.

 

[Hootie]

Hillary Clinton supporters donated $11,000 to McCain's campaign last month!? :lol

Looks like he won't have to pay for getting that mole removed! Good job clinton supporters!

Or do senators get free health care? Either way 11k ain't shit in the GE. Failed political statement has failed.

 

[KRS7]

Hillary Clinton supporters donated $11,000 to McCain's campaign last month!? :lol

Shouldn't they be spending that money helping her pay off her campaign debt?

 

[The Librarian]

And the election's been going on for months now, but we're all still talking. The liveblogging (dk if you hyphenate this word) just seems kinda creepy, even moreso than the obsessive focus on the daily polls. Saying "OMG I can't believe that guy said that thing he's such a crow" seems completely meaningless and uh... perspectiveless. I know you have to fill up your evenings with something, but these talk shows are intellectual garbage.

bububububu it's fun!

 

[KRS7]

And the election's been going on for months now, but we're all still talking. The liveblogging (dk if you hyphenate this word) just seems kinda creepy, even moreso than the obsessive focus on the daily polls. Saying "OMG I can't believe that guy said that thing he's such a crow" seems completely meaningless and uh... perspectiveless. I know you have to fill up your evenings with something, but these talk shows are intellectual garbage.

I agree, but there is very little else to watch at this time. Local news is boring. Prime time shows don't start till 7 or 8. I like the Daily Show and Colbert report better than any of these punditry shows.

 

[esbern]

just get an old white guy ffs. the only thing mccain has going for him is that he is not the black guy.

 

[Clevinger]

And the election's been going on for months now, but we're all still talking. The liveblogging (dk if you hyphenate this word) just seems kinda creepy, even moreso than the obsessive focus on the daily polls. Saying "OMG I can't believe that guy said that thing he's such a crow" seems completely meaningless and uh... perspectiveless. I know you have to fill up your evenings with something, but these talk shows are intellectual garbage.

Yeah, intellectual garbage. Not like debating the validity of using a tabloid for a source.




Wait...

 

[GhaleonEB]

The more I read about Kaine, the more l like him.

 

[The Librarian]

The more I read about Kaine, the more l like him.

I have been browsing his governor website since early this morning. He seems like a pretty good guy.

 

[maynerd]

And the election's been going on for months now, but we're all still talking. The liveblogging (dk if you hyphenate this word) just seems kinda creepy, even moreso than the obsessive focus on the daily polls. Saying "OMG I can't believe that guy said that thing he's such a crow" seems completely meaningless and uh... perspectiveless. I know you have to fill up your evenings with something, but these talk shows are intellectual garbage.

Nothing wrong with doing something you like as long as it doesn't hurt others right? Why you gotta be a hater?

 

[Mumei]

The bar for "propagandizing" is extremely low. It's everywhere: look at the RS cover posted above, look at this thread, etc. It's hard not to propagandize when you have an opinion-based show that is focused on one person's populist-nationalist-traditionalist views and how he interprets world events. Still, I think you've strayed far enough from whatever it was you were trying to counter when you first posted that link, that this conversation is at best, digression.

When I first posted the link, I was not countering anything at all. I had already read the study you'd linked to, and while waiting for a reply, I'd found an old study I had seen before.

You then said that you believed that it stated nothing useful, because O'Reilly's job is to entertain and provide commentary; I disagreed because it is clear based on their insistence that he is a "journalist" that he is used as a primary news source. In other words, I simply posted a link; this entire discussion has been a result of your attempts to downplay the study by deriding its relevance.

And I realize that it is not hard to propagandize when you have an opinion-based show, but it takes a special talent or zeal to, over the course of 100+ segments, to engage in 8.88 incidents of name-calling and 2.96 incidents of glittering generalities a minute, I think.

 

[Mandark]

Mandark: interesting. have to do some more reading on Blair's reign before i comment further. it was on my mind since i read a piece over the weekend that Obama's (and McCain, i guess) senatorial roots will likely lead him to govern left-of-center and value procedure over partisanship to get things done. it also goes hand-in-hand with my previous concerns on his economic platform (partially mollified by the WSJ interview) and foreign policy (Israel).

and another cute link to my half-hearated, jocular and jocktastic belief that U of C wants to take over the world, with Obama as the spearhead - http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/jul/12/economy.conservatives

The good news for us bleeding hearts is that Obama seems to gravitate towards behavioral economics, which challenges some of the major assumptions of the traditional Chicago School (that everyone is or should be a hyperrational profit maximizer). It's usually seen as friendlier towards a liberal outlook, in contrast to crap like the efficient market hypothesis.

It jibes with my view of Obama: a progressive in how he views social and economic justice and a pragmatist on how to reach those goals. He's also running for president of the United States of America, which means he's going to be to my right on a lot of issues.

Which sucks, but me coming to terms with being out of sync with most of my country is a whole 'nother rant. Which would get pretty emo, in a procedural liberal way.

 

[The Librarian]

I'm watching the Colbert Report. This Starbucks skit is hilarious.:lol