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[GhaleonEB]

fivethirtyeight dissects that Gallup poll:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/about-that-mccain-4.html

How do you get from a 47-44 Obama lead among RVs to a 49-45 McCain lead among LVs?

A few quick calculations shows how. You have 900 RVs and 791 LVs, so that means that among your 109 UVs (that's unlikely voters according to Gallup) Obama leads McCain by a whopping 61% to 7%.

Putting it another way, according to Gallup 16% of registered Obama supporters are unlikely to vote compared with only 2% of registered McCain supporters.

Whatever one thinks about likely voter models in general, the mathematics of this particular implementation defy credulity. Although, we should probably wait for USA Today to release its crosstabs so we can make sure there wasn't a typographical error of some kind in the write-up.

 

[reilo]

Oh, Brad Blakeman just said on Verdict that the right-wing 527s are nowhere near as vicious as MoveOn.org.

Yeah...

 

[DrForester]

Oh, Brad Blakeman just said on Verdict that the right-wing 527s are nowhere near as vicious as MoveOn.org.

Yeah...

I loved the comment John Stewart made a few months ago how Moveon.org is the one group out there that can make even the people who agree with them feel uncomfortable.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

Oh, Brad Blakeman just said on Verdict that the right-wing 527s are nowhere near as vicious as MoveOn.org.

Yeah...

I'm not watching it now, but if they talk about the Jerusalem Post and Obama looking better to them, I sent that question in to them over the weekend.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Larry King Headline:

"OBAMA, MCCAIN SLAM EACH OTHER"

 

[reilo]

Oh my.

Brad Blakeman = APF!

It all makes sense.

I kid. Sortof. But it's funny hearing Blakeman dismissing the Rasmussen report. Brad says that people believing the media is biased for Obama is reality, and this Rasmussen report is perception.

 

[maximum360]

Oh my.

Brad Blakeman = APF!

It all makes sense.

I kid. Sortof. But it's funny hearing Blakeman dismissing the Rasmussen report. Brad says that people believing the media is biased for Obama is reality, and this Rasmussen report is perception.

Brad Blakeman = a funny APF. There is no hope for him. I don't think he has the ability to reason beyond talking points.

 

[maximum360]

I fully expect this to be the next McCain Ad (or something very similar):

 

[ZealousD]

Oh, Brad Blakeman just said on Verdict that the right-wing 527s are nowhere near as vicious as MoveOn.org.

Yeah...

When I think of blind spin-masters in the media, the first person I think of is Brad Blakeman.

I seriously have no idea why Abrams puts him on. Every single time on Win, Lose, or Draw, Blakeman calls every situation a Lose for Obama and a Win for McCain, regardless of circumstances or issue.

To steal a somewhat famous scenario, McCain could punch a baby and Blakeman would go "Win for McCain, that baby was a real dick. That punch shows McCain's still has it and age isn't a factor."

 

[Tamanon]

When I think of blindness spin-masters in the media, the first person I think of is Brad Blakeman.

I seriously have no idea why Abrams puts him on. Every single time on Win, Lose, or Draw, Blakeman calls every situation a Lose for Obama and a Win for McCain, regardless of circumstances or issue.

To steal a somewhat famous scenario, McCain could punch a baby and Blakeman would go "Win for McCain, that baby was a real dick. That punch shows McCain's still has it and age isn't a factor."

I'm pretty sure it's the same reason that Hannity has Colmes and Lanny Davis. Take the most ineffective and transparent member of the rival party. Basically you kinda create your own straw man every time they talk.

 

[way more]

It also allows for them to say their coverage was fair and balanced. Even if one of the two debating is a fucking idiot or righteous zealot.

 

[Deus Ex Machina]

Pics Of Obama Meeting Some Of His Top Economic Advisors

Mon Jul 28, 1:41 PM ET
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. shakes hands prior to a meeting with his economic advisors, Monday, July 28, 2008, in Washington.(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Mon Jul 28, 1:53 PM ET
US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)(2nd L) meets with top economic advisors at a hotel in Washington July 28, 2008. REUTERS/Jason Reed (UNITED STATES)(US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008 USA)

Mon Jul 28, 1:54 PM ET
Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., center, speaks during a meeting with his economic advisors, Monday, July 28, 2008, in Washington, Monday. Form left are, former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, AFL-CIO President John Sweeney, former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker, Obama, Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Chair Anna Burger, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine.(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Mon Jul 28, 1:59 PM ET
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., second from left, speaks during a meeting with his economic advisers, Monday, July 28, 2008, in Washington. From left are, former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker, Obama, Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Chair Anna Burger, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine.(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Mon Jul 28, 2:02 PM ET
Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., center, meets with his economic advisers, from left, former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker, Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Chair Anna Burger, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, and others, Monday, July 28, 2008, in Washington.(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Mon Jul 28, 2:06 PM ET
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., second from right, shakes hands with former Commerce Secretary William Daley as Howard University Economic Professor William Spriggs, left, and former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, right, look on, prior to a meeting with his economic advisers, Monday, July 28, 2008, in Washington.(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Mon Jul 28, 2:08 PM ET
Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., center, back, speaks during a meeting with his economic advisors, Monday, July 28, 2008, in Washington, Monday. Form left are, former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, AFL-CIO President John Sweeney, former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker, Obama, Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Chair Anna Burger, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine.(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Mon Jul 28, 2:08 PM ET
US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) speaks with some of his top economic advisors at a hotel in Washington, July 28, 2008. REUTERS/Jason Reed (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008(USA)

Mon Jul 28, 2:11 PM ET
Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., second from left, speaks during a meeting with his economic advisors, Monday, July 28, 2008, in Washington, Monday. Form left are, former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker, Obama, Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Chair Anna Burger, and former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong) Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., center, is flanked by his economic advisors Paul Volcker, left, Anna Burger, and Robert Rubin, right, as he speaks at a meeting with his advisors in Washington, Monday, July 28, 2008.(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Mon Jul 28, 2:11 PM ET
US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) takes a seat with some of his top economic advisors during a roundtable meeting at a hotel in Washington, July 28, 2008. REUTERS/Jason Reed (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008(USA)

Mon Jul 28, 2:15 PM ET
US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) (2nd L) speaks alongside some of his top economic advisors during a roundtable meeting at a hotel in Washington, July 28, 2008. REUTERS/Jason Reed (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008(USA)

Mon Jul 28, 2:16 PM ET
US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)(C) meets with some of his top economic advisors at a hotel in Washington, July 28, 2008. REUTERS/Jason Reed (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008(USA)

Mon Jul 28, 2:18 PM ET
US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)(C) meets with some of his top economic advisors at a hotel in Washington, July 28, 2008. REUTERS/Jason Reed (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008(USA)

Mon Jul 28, 2:18 PM ET
US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) (2nd L) meets with some of his top economic advisors during a roundtable meeting at a hotel in Washington, July 28, 2008. REUTERS/Jason Reed (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008(USA)

Mon Jul 28, 2:18 PM ET
US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)(C) meets with some of his top economic advisors during a roundtable meeting at a hotel in Washington, July 28, 2008. REUTERS/Jason Reed (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008(USA)

Mon Jul 28, 2:19 PM ET
US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) (3rd L) meets with some of his top economic advisors during a roundtable meeting at a hotel in Washington, July 28, 2008. REUTERS/Jason Reed (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008(USA)

Mon Jul 28, 2:20 PM ET
US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) speaks alongside his top economic advisors during a roundtable meeting at a hotel in Washington, July 28, 2008. REUTERS/Jason Reed (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008(USA)

Mon Jul 28, 2:21 PM ET
Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., center, arrives for a meeting with his economic advisors, Monday, July 28, 2008, in Washington, Monday. Seated, from left are, former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker, Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Chair Anna Burger, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine.(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Mon Jul 28, 2:22 PM ET
US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) arrives at a roundtable meeting with some of his top economic advisors at a hotel in Washington, July 28, 2008. REUTERS/Jason Reed (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008(USA)

Mon Jul 28, 2:33 PM ET
Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., second from left, speaks during a meeting with his economic advisers, Monday, July 28, 2008, in Washington, Monday. Form left are, former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker, Obama, Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Chair Anna Burger, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Mon Jul 28, 2:40 PM ET
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., right, reads a document as he arrives for a meeting with his economic advisers in Washington, Monday, July 28, 2008.(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Mon Jul 28, 2:44 PM ET
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., right, is joined by one of his economic advisers, former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker, Monday, July 28, 2008, during a meeting in Washington.(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Mon Jul 28, 2:46 PM ET
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., center, walks with his campaign aide as he arrives in Washington, Monday, July 28, 2008.(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Mon Jul 28, 2:48 PM ET
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., arrives in Washington, Monday, July 28, 2008.(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Mon Jul 28, 2:48 PM ET
Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama meets with some of his top economic advisors during a roundtable meeting at a hotel in Washington, July 28, 2008.REUTERS/Jason Reed

Mon Jul 28, 4:17 PM ET
A Secret Service agent, right, stands guard as Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., background center, arrives for a meeting in Washington, Monday, July 28, 2008.(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

 

[mckmas8808]

CNN is talking about McCain and lobbyist.

 

[Joe]

jon corzine is one of this top economic advisors? ugh.

On May 2, Corzine signed a bill — only the third in the nation — giving all New Jersey workers the same flexibility his children had. The new law requires employers to give workers up to six weeks a year of paid leave to look after family members, including newborns and adopted children.

facepalm


he might be good, but that bill never sat well with me.

 

[WickedAngel]

I just heard a replay of a speech that McCain made earlier in the day where he utilized his "Dr. No" insult. Is it just me or does anyone else imagine the walls of nursing homes across the nation ringing with the impress chortles of their inhabitants?

Really McCain, really? That's the very best you can come up with?

 

[scorcho]

oft times before i enter this thread i wonder to myself, 'oh henny penny, i've only seen 14 pictures of Obama today, not my usual 15! how sad!'

now, though, i can sleep a happy man.

 

[Stinkles]

SWEAR TO ME!

 

[mj1108]

What a badass. President Badass.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

What a badass. President Badass.

now that motherfucker is ILL

 

[sprsk]

I don't remember Kerry doing any of this kinda stuff during his run.

 

[Stinkles]

I don't remember Kerry doing any of this kinda stuff during his run.

He was too busy practicing Flip-Floppery with his elitist, patrician friends.

 

[reilo]

Here is a rundown of McCain's voting record in the senate when it comes to the military:

April 2003: McCain tables an amendment to provide $1bil in funding for the National Guard in reserve equipment.
October 2003: McCain tables an amendment to provide $322mil in funding for safety equipment.
March 2004: Votes against eliminating a tax loop hole that would have increased veteran's medical care by $1.8bil.
March 2006: Votes against corporate tax loop holes that would have increased veteran's medical service by $1.5bil.
April 2006: Votes against for providing $430mil in funding for veteran's outpatient care.
March 2007: Didn't even bother to vote for a resolution that would redeploy more troops from Iraq by March 2008.
September 2007: Votes against Jim Webb's amendment that would specify a minimum rest for troops inbetween deployment.
May 2008: Speaks out against Senator Webb's GI Bill, then doesn't bother to show up for the vote.

Let's see how veterans rank McCain's voting record in regards to the military:

http://www.iava.org/full-ratings-list - Iraq and Afghanistan veterans graded him a D
http://capwiz.com/vva/e4/cinfo/?id=157301 - Vietnam Veteran's: Voted 17 out of 26 times against them
http://capwiz.com/dav/scorecard.xc - Disabled American Veterans graded him a 20%

 

[Tyrone Slothrop]

mccain seems to resemble emperor palpatine more and more every day

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

Here is a rundown of McCain's voting record in the senate when it comes to the military:

April 2003: McCain tables an amendment to provide $1bil in funding for the National Guard in reserve equipment.
October 2003: McCain tables an amendment to provide $322mil in funding for safety equipment.
March 2004: Votes against eliminating a tax loop hole that would have increased veteran's medical care by $1.8bil.
March 2006: Votes against corporate tax loop holes that would have increased veteran's medical service by $1.5bil.
April 2006: Votes against for providing $430mil in funding for veteran's outpatient care.
March 2007: Didn't even bother to vote for a resolution that would redeploy more troops from Iraq by March 2008.
September 2007: Votes against Jim Webb's amendment that would specify a minimum rest for troops inbetween deployment.
May 2008: Speaks out against Senator Webb's GI Bill, then doesn't bother to show up for the vote.

Let's see how veterans rank McCain's voting record in regards to the military:

http://www.iava.org/full-ratings-list - Iraq and Afghanistan veterans graded him a D
http://capwiz.com/vva/e4/cinfo/?id=157301 - Vietnam Veteran's: Voted 17 out of 26 times against them
http://capwiz.com/dav/scorecard.xc - Disabled American Veterans graded him a 20%

It's like Rachel said on Countdown. There is a difference in being a veteran and being there for veterans. The McCain camp is hoping people don't know the difference.

 

[harSon]

mccain seems to resemble emperor palpatine more and more every day

Joe Lieberman is Senator Palpatine, they're back stories are near identical!

 

[GhaleonEB]

It's like Rachel said on Countdown. There is a difference in being a veteran and being there for veterans. The McCain camp is hoping people don't know the difference.

I really hope Obama/someone highlights this gap, big time.

 

[reilo]

I really hope Obama/someone highlights this gap, big time.

And in strict GOP fashion, they will twist this around and proclaim that Obama is attacking McCain's patriotism, when in fact, he's attacking his senate voting record.

 

[GhaleonEB]

http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/07/28/poll-position.aspx

Is McCain in the Lead?

Newsweek: Polls show Barack Obama leading John McCain among registered voters but trailing McCain among likely voters. Just how close is the race?

Top politcal story, front page, on MSNBC.com

:facepalm

 

[reilo]

http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/07/28/poll-position.aspx



Top politcal story, front page, on MSNBC.com

:facepalm

I hope my generation comes out in droves this November to shut these people the hell up.

 

[DEO3]

our generation is the best generation

 

[StopMakingSense]

our generation is the best generation

That line is so worrying when paired with your avatar.

 

[The Chosen One]

http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/07/28/poll-position.aspx



Top politcal story, front page, on MSNBC.com

:facepalm

The media loves a close race. It's great for ratings. They said so as much during the Hilary/Obama battle in the primaries. It's why they kept giving Hilary a fighting chance even when she was mathematically out of it.

Casting doubt on Obama stirs up interest. It pisses off Obama fans and it gives Republicans a glimmer of hope. All great for ratings.

You better believe Joe Scars is going to go on and and on and and on and on about the Gallop/USA Today poll.

 

[KRS7]

So if McCain takes the lead in these national polls will he come under the same scrutiny that Obama is getting from the press? It might no be a bad thing.

 

[reilo]

That post I just made about McCain's senate voting record in regards to military personnel, I posted it on another message board, with the same sources cited and all.

Some guy said I was omitting facts and just using DNC propaganda machine and telling lies.

/head-scratch

 

[Hootie]

You know, as much as everyone hates on Joe Scarborough, I like the guy. I mean, I completely disagree with him politically speaking, but the man is fucking hilarious to watch at 6 in the morning. It always seems like he's so out of it, what with his hair and overall look. Plus it almost feels like he's....high while hosting the show. No joke, every time the camera focuses on his blank face I can't help but laugh. The people on the panel with him also approach him like he's a joke character, which only adds to the hilarity because I'm not sure he realizes it. The entire Morning Joe program comes off as such a joke to me that I don't even take it seriously and just watch it for the pure entertainment.

 

[Joe]

he reminds me of jughead for some reason. it was pretty funny when he had bill maher on and it was like 3am on the west coast.

 

[LuCkymoON]

SWEAR TO ME!

I came >_<

 

[Hootie]

he reminds me of jughead for some reason. it was pretty funny when he had bill maher on and it was like 3am on the west coast.

I don't smoke weed or drink, but I've always wanted to watch Morning Joe either extremely high or drunk. I have a feeling it would be epic beyond measure. I'd probably just sit there zoning out like Joe, pissing my pants laughing at his face. :lol

 

[KRS7]

I don't smoke weed or drink, but I've always wanted to watch Morning Joe either extremely high or drunk. I have a feeling it would be epic beyond measure. I'd probably just sit there zoning out like Joe, pissing my pants laughing at his face. :lol

Does Joe really mean all the stuff he says? Maybe he is like colbert and it is all an act. This morning he was telling Mika how the McCain is on record or something against the war in Iraq and reporters shouldn't ask him if it was a sign of bad judgment to invade. But Obama on the other hand was out of touch with the surge and should be hammered by the press until he admits he was wrong.

 

[Tyrone Slothrop]

You know, as much as everyone hates on Joe Scarborough, I like the guy. I mean, I completely disagree with him politically speaking,...

for a guy that served in congress as a republican, i don't find him all THAT far to the right. you'd think he'd use cable news as an instrument for being a blow-hard but he seems pretty moderate. for one, he pretty much acknowledges that bush is a fuck up. won't see sean hannity or o'reilly do that

 

[Hootie]

Does Joe really mean all the stuff he says? Maybe he is like colbert and it is all an act. This morning he was telling Mika how the McCain is on record or something against the war in Iraq and reporters shouldn't ask him if it was a sign of bad judgment to invade. But Obama on the other hand was out of touch with the surge and should be hammered by the press until he admits he was wrong.

That's what I'm wondering. He's comes off as such a satirical character that I just can't take him seriously. It makes the show a lot better knowing this guy is probably just babbling on about stuff while he's still in the long process of waking up.

:lol

Actually, though this is off-topic, can anyone make this avatar-sized? And possibly put "This is NeoGAF, dude." on it? Strange request but I might want it as my new avatar.

 

[KRS7]

Actually, though this is off-topic, can anyone make this avatar-sized? And possibly put "This is NeoGAF, dude." on it? Strange request but I might want it as my new avatar.

I had photoshop open so here:

 

[Hootie]

I had photoshop open so here:

Thanks! Any possibility of putting "This is NeoGAF, dude." Or even some :lol smileys on it? I don't mean to impose but the guy is just asking for it.

 

[KRS7]

Thanks! Any possibility of putting "This is NeoGAF, dude." Or even some :lol smileys on it? I don't mean to impose but the guy is just asking for it.

Here's the best I can do:

 

[Hootie]

Here's the best I can do:

It'll do for now! Thanks :lol

And now I'm done with the off-topic stuff.

EDIT: Who am I kidding, I miss my Hotel Dusk avatar. Sorry for wasting your time; maybe I'll use it on Election Day though.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

Rachel

http://www.jedreport.com/2008/07/your-liberal-me.html

 

[Hootie]

Rachel

http://www.jedreport.com/2008/07/your-liberal-me.html

Wow, just imagine the amount of scrutiny Obama would get if he was called out on something like this. Jesus.

 

[The Chosen One]

Joe Scars has definitely become more of a moderate Republican (at least when he's on television). It makes him tolerable half the time. But the other half of the time it seems like he's fighting his inner partisan demons and closes himself off to the facts in favor of Republican talking points. Like yesterday when he was going on and on about the Obama/Injured Troop story.

But yeah, he has a funny face. His mouth is way too small for his face, which makes him look like one of those Conan O'Brian talking head sketches.

Anyway, I usually watch Morning Joe when there isn't a manufactured story in the news. On those days, I want to pull my hair out. But otherwise it can be pretty good.

 

[The Chosen One]

Is the weather girl on Morning Joe pregnant?

 

[Smiles and Cries]

I'm still thinking of Obama's half brother I read about last week the one that lives in China, speaks good chinese has a chinese girlfriend... damn you drudgereport and your crazy linked news