Support NeoGAF

[NewLib]

you said nothing in this post. why do you think VI is not in play?

Virgina has consistently been one of the reddest states in the Union. It hasnt voted Democrat since Lyndon Johnson/Barry Goldwater. Bush had every reason not to hold Virgina and still won it by a significant margin. Plus, its African American population is relatively low compared to other Southern states.
If Obama wins Virgina, it doesnt matter. He already destoyed McCain in the election.

Edit: I could be wrong but I actually believe Virgina is the longest running state to vote Republican in Presidential elections. One of the Western sparsely populated states might have it beat though.

 

[KilledByBill]

I hope his campaign really believes in this map and spends accordingly

I love the fact that McCain's home state of Arizona is only "leaning" GOP.

Virgina has consistently been one of the reddest states in the Union. It hasnt voted Democrat since Lyndon Johnson/Barry Goldwater. Bush had every reason not to hold Virgina and still won it by a significant margin. Plus, its African American population is relatively low compared to other Southern states.
If Obama wins Virgina, it doesnt matter. He already destoyed McCain in the election.

Edit: I could be wrong but I actually believe Virgina is the longest running state to vote Republican in Presidential elections. One of the Western sparsely populated states might have it beat though.

It seems like you're putting too much weight in the fact that VA has voted Republican in the past, while ignoring that the demographics there are shifting. I thought Bush "only" won Virginia over Kerry by a 5% margin. That can be reversed in 4 years, especially if Obama puts a Virginian on the ticket.

 

[Raxus]

Ever since Hillary dropped out this thread really quieted down.

 

[Zeed]

And you guys thought 2000 was bad? Imagine a Democrat Congress deciding between a tie in favor of Obama. FUN!

Much better than having a President appointed by the Supreme Court.

 

[Gaborn]

you said nothing in this post. why do you think VI is not in play?

just so you know, Virginia is properly abbreviated VA, not VI.

 

[Frank the Great]

just so you know, Virginia is properly abbreviated VA, not VI.

i knew that

 

[CowboyAstronaut]

Ever since Hillary dropped out this thread really quieted down.

Waiting for some interesting things to start happening.

Part of me just knows deep down in my gut they have that Michelle Obama tape and plan to drop it really close to the election.

I mean, look how much that Reverend Wright thing blew up and a large part of the controversy was him quoting someone else.

 

[TDG]

Much better than having a President appointed by the Supreme Court.

How about a 269-269 tie, with McCain winning the popular vote, and the democrat congress putting Obama in power. That'd be fun.

Waiting for some interesting things to start happening.

Part of me just knows deep down in my gut they have that Michelle Obama tape and plan to drop it really close to the election.

I mean, look how much that Reverend Wright thing blew up and a large part of the controversy was him quoting someone else.

Sigh.

 

[NewLib]

I love the fact that McCain's home state of Arizona is only "leaning" GOP.



It seems like you're putting too much weight in the fact that VA has voted Republican in the past, while ignoring that the demographics there are shifting. I thought Bush "only" won Virginia over Kerry by a 5% margin. That can be reversed in 4 years, especially if Obama puts a Virginian on the ticket.

Over 8% actually.

Honestly I will never admit to know 100% about anything because politics change so quickly. It would REALLY REALLY surprise me if Obama won Virgina as if he gets an 8% shift in VA then I would assume he get about the same shift nationally. In that case, the election is a blowout so VA doesnt matter.

 

[sangreal]

Virginia has a Democratic Governor and soon to be 2 Democratic Senators; I think its safe to say that it is not one of the reddest states in the union

There is also the possibility of a running mate from VA

Ever since Hillary dropped out this thread really quieted down.

Obama is on vacation

 

[Zeed]

Part of me just knows deep down in my gut they have that Michelle Obama tape and plan to drop it really close to the election.

You mean the rumor copy and pasted from a political thriller novel?

 

[Y2Kev]

How about a 269-269 tie, with McCain winning the popular vote, and the democrat congress putting Obama in power. That'd be fun.


Sigh.

I'm 99% convinced McCain will not win the popular vote, stipulating no scandals, gaffes, etc. I think the McCain campaign has to know by this point they are playing electoral math.

 

[sangreal]

You mean the rumor copy and pasted from a political thriller novel?

We call him Chicken Little for a reason.

 

[NewLib]

I'm 99% convinced McCain will not win the popular vote, stipulating no scandals, gaffes, etc. I think the McCain campaign has to know by this point they are playing electoral math.

Let me first state that Im voting for Obama and thinks he should and will win the election before I say this.

I think McCain has a better chance to win the Popular vote than the Electoral Vote. Why? Racism. The South is going to anti-vote Obama in droves. I be surprised if he hits 30% in Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, or West Virgina.

 

[TDG]

I'm 99% convinced McCain will not win the popular vote, stipulating no scandals, gaffes, etc. I think the McCain campaign has to know by this point they are playing electoral math.

Oh, i don't think he will either, bt still... that scenario would be exciting.

 

[User 10639]

I love the fact that McCain's home state of Arizona is only "leaning" GOP.

Unless he anticipates Phoenix abandoning him completely (and Tucson doing anything better for Obama than splitting down the middle, which is what I'm guessing will happen) I really have no idea why he'd do such a thing, as I still think a (D) AZ is an impossibility at this point. It makes me wonder what their internal polling is telling them.

I think McCain has a better chance to win the Popular vote than the Electoral Vote. Why? Racism. The South is going to anti-vote Obama in droves. I be surprised if he hits 30% in Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, or West Virgina.

I think (or hope, mebbe) this will be counteracted by a very large turnout of AAs in high-concentration states like GA, Miss, LA, etc. although I'm not optimistic enough to say that that (plus Babar votes? ha!) will actually turn those states' electoral votes, of course, unless Louisiana is exceedingly (and rightly) bitter about Katrina. Mississippi will be fun to observe, at the very least.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Let me first state that Im voting for Obama and thinks he should and will win the election before I say this.

I think McCain has a better chance to win the Popular vote than the Electoral Vote. Why? Racism. The South is going to anti-vote Obama in droves. I be surprised if he hits 30% in Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, or West Virgina.

You under-estimate the youth and black vote which will out in historic proportions. As will all the non-racist white vote (the vast majority). I was initially worried about the racist vote as well, and it will be a factor, but it will be dwarfed by Obama's voter registration and GOTV efforts.

 

[ratcliffja]

Let me first state that Im voting for Obama and thinks he should and will win the election before I say this.

I think McCain has a better chance to win the Popular vote than the Electoral Vote. Why? Racism. The South is going to anti-vote Obama in droves. I be surprised if he hits 30% in Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, or West Virgina.

In a poll from the local news, Obama came in at around 15% against McCain. There were more people who would vote for neither candidate than for Obama, and that's after he locked up the nomination. Sometimes I'm ashamed to be an Arkansan.

 

[Mumei]

I just watched the "strategy briefing" on McCain's website.

I realize who that was made for and why it was made, but... that's just hilarious. :lol

 

[Mumei]

You under-estimate the youth and black vote which will out in historic proportions. As will all the non-racist white vote (the vast majority). I was initially worried about the racist vote as well, and it will be a factor, but it will be dwarfed by Obama's voter registration and GOTV efforts.

FiveThirtyEight did a really interesting thing on that, on what could happen in various scenarios of increased turnout among African-Americans, youth, and Hispanics based on the current margins Obama enjoyed in those groups.

 

[avaya]

Let me first state that Im voting for Obama and thinks he should and will win the election before I say this.

I think McCain has a better chance to win the Popular vote than the Electoral Vote. Why? Racism. The South is going to anti-vote Obama in droves. I be surprised if he hits 30% in Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, or West Virgina.

Energise the base gains in California, New York and Illinois will make any horrific losses in the south pale into comparison.

 

[Diablos]

Latest Electoral . This is what matters now, NOT GALLUPS. why? because gallups gauge the entire US population, while the electoral vote gauges the actual results in fall

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

As it stands on June 8th
Obama 287 McCain 227 Ties 24

Senate: Dem 58 GOP 42

House: Dem 238 GOP 197


Current Battleground states

New Mexico
Montana
Indiana
Michigan
South Carolina
Connecticut
Virginia
Ohio


Map in LInk

Heh. I agreed with your comments on electoral-vote back in 2004. They had Kerry into the 300's for EV's at one point. Although, this was before Kerry got swiftboated and the GOP put his voting record under a microscope.

 

[Apharmd]

Waiting for some interesting things to start happening.

Part of me just knows deep down in my gut they have that Michelle Obama tape and plan to drop it really close to the election.

I mean, look how much that Reverend Wright thing blew up and a large part of the controversy was him quoting someone else.

this is why you have your avatar

 

[Diablos]

He's not. He's not going to lose Ohio or Pennslyvania, either. The McCain "strategy briefing" is simply an exercise in delusions of grandeur. They also have Oregon and Washington as "tossups". They're either willfully ignorant or this is a desperate attempt to reel in some $$ from gullible rainmakers.

haha, I know. They think Oregon and especially Washington are tossups? Are they delusional? :lol

electoral-vote giving McCain a four point lead in MI is also pretty hilarious

 

[Incognito]

 

[DrForester]

anxiously awaiting photoshops of obama towing things on his bike.

 

[Zeed]

Where's this from, and when was it taken?

 

[Frank the Great]

rockin' the jeans

for comparison's sake:

 

[Incognito]

Where's this from, and when was it taken?

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5isOFwdbq0tsqatW6vJpkDRTI1gMgD9162UB80

 

[Tamanon]

Good lord, Bush even had his bike picture taken with a flag?:lol

 

[WedgeX]

D'oh.

 

[GenericPseudonym]

What a tool. Obama is a much, much better candidate. If Kerry was so close to winning (Ohio) then Obama should be able to coast to victory.

 

[sangreal]

Good lord, Bush even had his bike picture taken with a flag?:lol

Check out his helmet.

 

[Zeed]

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5isOFwdbq0tsqatW6vJpkDRTI1gMgD9162UB80

I hope all that press and secret service didn't ruin his ride.

"Holy shit it's Barack Obama!"

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

I love the fact that McCain's home state of Arizona is only "leaning" GOP.



.

It's like Al Gore all over again. :lol

 

[The Librarian]

So awesome. :lol :lol

 

[Diablos]

Cool bike pics (minus Bush).

I wonder if McCain's campaign trying to take advantage of pissed off Clinton supporters could perhaps make Sarah Palin his VP choice?

 

[Kusagari]

No they aren't, and it is entirely too soon to be paying attention to such things

:lol

McCain's camp has to be on drugs if they seriously believe Washington has any chance of going to McCain.

 

[Sharp]

Wait, is Obama in Hyde Park right now? If so, damn, didn't realize he was so nearby.

 

[GhaleonEB]

McCain's camp has to be on drugs if they seriously believe Washington has any chance of going to McCain.

Huff Post has deconstructed their map a bit.

Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, has posted a PowerPoint study asserting that McCain currently hold slight leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, Missouri and Nevada, and that Ohio is "a dead heat" and that Pennsylvania could go Republican. "This is a very good position for our campaign to be in," Davis contends

In fact, the survey data is not as favorable as Davis claims - Obama leads in all five of the most recent Pennsylvania polls by an average of 5.8 points, and he leads in Wisconsin by 2 points. Polling in the 19 states identified by RealClearPolitics as battlegrounds shows Obama in a better position than McCain, ahead in such Bush '04 states as Colorado and Iowa, and running very close in Virginia, New Mexico and Nevada.

In addition, the data on RealClearPolitics dispute another of Davis' claims --- that McCain has stronger favorable/unfavorable ratings than Obama. Instead, the recent average for McCain is 47.3 favorable to 40.8 unfavorable, or a +6.5; for Obama, it's 50.3 to 38.5, or +11.8 .

In not-for-attribution interviews, a number of Republicans were neither optimistic about his chances nor positive in their assessment of his campaign so far.

"I think we've got a world of problems," said one Republican strategist with extensive experience in presidential campaigns. He said this came home to him with a thud when he watched Obama and McCain give speeches last Tuesday, with the Democrat speaking before "20,000 screaming fans, while John McCain looked every bit of his 72 years" in a speech televised from New Orleans. This Republican cited the liberal blogger Atrios' description of McCain's speech with a green backdrop that made McCain "look like the cottage cheese in a lime Jell-O salad."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/08/gop-insiders-worry-about_n_105946.html

 

[sangreal]

Wait, is Obama in Hyde Park right now? If so, damn, didn't realize he was so nearby.

He has been there since Friday I believe

 

[camineet]

in 2024


:lol :lol

 

[Stumpokapow]

I wonder if McCain's campaign trying to take advantage of pissed off Clinton supporters could perhaps make Sarah Palin his VP choice?

Palin is not a bad choice, but she's got some downsides.

First, no one gives a fuck about Alaska politically and there's no spillover bonus to nearby or simlar states. She's also not even guaranteed to get Alaska since Stevens has a pretty close race this year that could encourage Democratic turnout.

The biggest flaw she has, though, is the fact that she's relatively inexperienced. City councillor, mayor, and two years being a Governor? And McCain is going to attack Obama for being a longtime community organizer, a decade in the state senate, a professor, and a two year Senator?

McCain will obviously pick a young(er) VP candidate because people are going to ask "If McCain dies in office, what happens?" If Obama's inexperience makes him unfit to be President, why does the McCain campaign stand behind Palin being President?

Obviously her record on spending, her young age, and her very conservative positions help her, though. She also has a relatively clean electoral record with no major losses, and won a healthy margin in her last election... and she's easy enough on the eyes, especially compared to McCain.

I don't imagine she'd garner many Clinton supporters, though. If Clintonistas don't get behind Obama, he'll have to trot out the abortion card, and that does not play well to Palin.

 

[reilo]

in 2024


:lol :lol

WTF?

Didn't know who that was, so I google imaged, first result:

NSFW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.wonkette.com/assets/resources/2006/06/Pierce Bush 4.jpg
NSFW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Zeed]

He has been there since Friday I believe

I love how he went golfing while Clinton was giving her concession speech.

 

[Zeed]

Palin is not a bad choice, but she's got some downsides.

If McCain tries to steal some of Hillary's fanbase with a "Conservative-Hillary-Lite", then Obama can just pick the real thing. Hillary would totally slaughter a wannabe in the VP debate.

 

[Stumpokapow]

If you haven't seen the Politifact Truth-o-Meter by Congressional Quarterly, check it the fuck out. It goes through statements by all candidates and grades them True, Mostly True, Kinda True, Mostly False, False, or Pants on Fire. It also goes through attacks against all the candidates--and it sorts them by source (blogger, chain email, other candidates, non-candidate politicians or workers, etc).

Very very cool little site. It's still up to you to look at the statements they determine were false and ask whether or not they were said maliciously or not--only the most grievous falsehoods are given "Pants on Fire" status.

If McCain tries to steal some of Hillary's fanbase with a "Conservative-Hillary-Lite", then Obama can just pick the real thing. Hillary would totally slaughter a wannabe in the VP debate.

You're assuming McCain fires first. He doesn't have to; his convention is a week after the Democratic convention so theoretically he could shortlist until the Dem convention and play the numbers game based on the final Dem ticket.

Now, whether or not strategically he feels it right to fire first is another matter entirely. In most cases, early-mid July is when the VP is announced.

 

[StoOgE]

WTF?

Didn't know who that was, so I google imaged, first result:

NSFW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.wonkette.com/assets/resources/2006/06/Pierce Bush 4.jpg
NSFW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That photo to you linked to is Leslie, a local celebrity. He's our lovable homeless tranny. He got 15% of the vote in a mayoral election a few years ago.

 

[CowboyAstronaut]

You mean the rumor copy and pasted from a political thriller novel?

That's just where people THINK it came from. There is no proof of that nor is there any proof of this michelle obama tape, but the whole "why'd he" "whitey" confusion sounds totally plausible and exactly the type of thing that the Republicans would try in hopes of hurting Obama.

 

[Zeed]

That's just where people THINK it came from. There is no proof of that nor is there any proof of this michelle obama tape, but the whole "why'd he" "whitey" confusion sounds totally plausible and exactly the type of thing that the Republicans would try in hopes of hurting Obama.

Tell us the truth - are you shitting us right now? I'm pretty sure you're shitting us right now.