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PoliGAF Thread of First Debate Election 2008 - GAF doesn't know shit

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A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
2ahh4bb.gif
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
These results, from Sept. 25-27, span the time period since John McCain made the announcement that he was temporarily suspending his campaign and returning to Washington to work for a bipartisan solution to the financial crisis, and since Congressional leaders first announced progress towards the resolution of a financial bailout bill. The results also include one complete day (Saturday) after the first presidential debate on Friday night. McCain had reached a point where he was tied with Obama earlier in the week, but Obama has gained steadily in each of the last three days' reports. Overall, Obama has gained four percentage points over the last three days, while McCain has lost four points, for an eight-point swing in the "gap" or margin.

The full impact of the debate and its aftermath will not be reflected in the tracking data until Tuesday's report, which will be based on interviewing conducted Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Still, Gallup's one-day read on the standing of the two candidates on Saturday suggests that Obama held the lead over McCain among registered voters that night, just as he had for the two previous nights.

Obama reached an eight-point lead or higher twice before, once after his highly publicized foreign tour to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Europe in July, and once after the Democratic National Convention. In both of these instances, Obama's relatively large lead was short-lived; McCain came charging back to tie the race in both cases. Thus history would suggest the potential for future shifts in voter preferences and for McCain to bounce back once again.

Additionally, major news events relating to the campaign will be forthcoming over the next several weeks -- including the final resolution of Congress' efforts to pass a financial bailout bill and three more debates (two presidential, and one vice presidential), all of which could have the potential for future shifts in voter preferences. Obama has held at least a moderate edge over McCain for the vast majority of the days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking since June, and overall has led by an average of about three points in the over 100,000 interviews conducted by Gallup during this time period. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Frank Newport
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.
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Rur0ni said:
And Kerry closed the GAP in one debate. :O McCain must not do the same!
Click to expand...

If McCain gets a net gain in Obama over the course of the next 3 debates (VP, town hall, domestic issues) I will be shocked.

The town hall will likely be a good one for McCain, but Obama holds a ton of town halls on the campaign as well. The VP debate should be Lulz worth and Obama should tear up the domestic debate, which will be the last taste in the voters mouths.
 
Haunted

Haunted

Member
Fuck the polls. Continue the good ground game, get people energised, make them realise that it's important everyone goes out to vote, regardless whether Obama is ahead by 1, 5, or 10 points in the polls.

Don't get complacent.





That said, fuckyeah.gif
 
R

Rur0ni

Member
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama leads John McCain, 50% to 42% among registered voters in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday -- just one point shy of his strongest showing of the year.

These results, from Sept. 25-27, span the time period since John McCain made the announcement that he was temporarily suspending his campaign and returning to Washington to work for a bipartisan solution to the financial crisis, and since Congressional leaders first announced progress towards the resolution of a financial bailout bill. The results also include one complete day (Saturday) after the first presidential debate on Friday night. McCain had reached a point where he was tied with Obama earlier in the week, but Obama has gained steadily in each of the last three days' reports. Overall, Obama has gained four percentage points over the last three days, while McCain has lost four points, for an eight-point swing in the "gap" or margin.

The full impact of the debate and its aftermath will not be reflected in the tracking data until Tuesday's report, which will be based on interviewing conducted Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Still, Gallup's one-day read on the standing of the two candidates on Saturday suggests that Obama held the lead over McCain among registered voters that night, just as he had for the two previous nights.

Obama reached an eight-point lead or higher twice before, once after his highly publicized foreign tour to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Europe in July, and once after the Democratic National Convention. In both of these instances, Obama's relatively large lead was short-lived; McCain came charging back to tie the race in both cases. Thus history would suggest the potential for future shifts in voter preferences and for McCain to bounce back once again.

Additionally, major news events relating to the campaign will be forthcoming over the next several weeks -- including the final resolution of Congress' efforts to pass a financial bailout bill and three more debates (two presidential, and one vice presidential), all of which could have the potential for future shifts in voter preferences. Obama has held at least a moderate edge over McCain for the vast majority of the days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking since June, and overall has led by an average of about three points in the over 100,000 interviews conducted by Gallup during this time period. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Frank Newport

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from Sept. 25-27, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,719 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Click to expand...

For Stoney.
 
S

Sharp

Member
StoOgE said:
I think he had a plus 9 during the convention bump, but yes, this is his largest "real" lead that wasnt affected by an event like that.
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Well, it was affected by the debate. This large a lead is probably temporary.
 
F

Future PhaZe

Member
A lot can change, but hasn't the worst threat to Obama already come and went?

Wasn't this to be his hardest debate? And he actually went +8 after that. Assuming that Obama cleans up in the next debates and Palin gets struck down by Biden in the VP debates, the polls should favor Obama...
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Thanks for the pics, Dax. Good stuff.

So for today:

Hotline: +5 (both down a point, margin unchanged)
Rasmussen: +6 (unchanged)
Kos/R2k: +7 (Obama +1)
Gallup: +8 (Obama +1, McCain -2)

And yet another set of data showing Obama won the debate. McCain is in trouble....

Also, I suggest people link to not just the Gallup graph, but also the article about the day as it often provides details or context. It answers the question you guys have been asking.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110740/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Moves-50-42-Lead.aspx

*snip*

Beaten twice.
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
artredis1980 said:
But I thought McCain was going to get a bump for suspending his campaign because he cared SO much for the economy
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This is the important thing. Regardless of the debates, it shows McCain's stunt gained him absolutely nothing.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
StoOgE said:
yeah, but those two +8s were the results of Obama dominating media coverage..

this is after two weeks of pretty even coverage.
Click to expand...

I don't think the coverage was 'even'. Sure, they both got equal play... but McCain's was largely negative. And Palin too. and the economy loomed large.

This was just good shit for Obama.
 
R

Rur0ni

Member
Dark FaZe said:
A lot can change, but hasn't the worst threat to Obama already come and went?

Wasn't this to be his hardest debate? And he actually went +8 after that. Assuming that Obama cleans up in the next debates and Palin gets struck down by Biden in the VP debates, the polls should favor Obama...
Click to expand...
Depending on the kind of ads that air, and any gaffes.

Debate wise, the first should've been Obama's hardest... and he did well. More voters think he did better. Next is VP, which shouldn't come out as a net positive, other than maybe people saying "well she isn't completely stupid". Then town hall debate, should be a wash I think. Then final debate Obama teams knows it has to zing and seal the deal. Electoral Blowout. 350+ ;D
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Sharp said:
Well, it was affected by the debate. This large a lead is probably temporary.
Click to expand...

There is a debate bump, but debate bumps are more natural and less a result of free media coverage. Its not like the dem convention where it was Obama 24/7 on the news, or Obama's overseas trip which was largely all Obama all the time.

This is after two weeks of fairly even media coverage, perhaps with McCain getting more coverage than Obama. McCains was largely negative coverage, especially RE: Palin. But this week is probably going to be bad for McCain too. VP debate + the fallout from Obama winning the debate.

Its also getting very late in the game, the indpendents are starting to move into more static positons.

This is the time where polls start to matter.

Kerry got a bump out of the debates, but he was way behind before that. Obama had a sizable lead before the debates and is building on that lead.

I know we are all being pessimists because we got fucked in 2000 and beat in 2004... but imagine a situation where Bush came out of the first 2004 debate as the winner. Kerry's campaign would have been completely crushed. I think that is pretty much what just happened, but for the good guys.

Do I think that Obama wins by +8? No, I dont think that is realistic at all. But the fact is whatever gains McCain winds up making will be the result of a very very hard uphill climb. He probably wins the late deciders (people who make up their mind the last weekend) to make this a bit closer, but he needs to be within 2-3 going into the last two weeks to have a chance. He's got less than 3 weeks to turn it around, and it looks like next week is going to be bad for him again.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Amir0x said:
I don't think the coverage was 'even'. Sure, they both got equal play... but McCain's was largely negative. And Palin too. and the economy loomed large.

This was just good shit for Obama.
Click to expand...
After a certain point, the tipping point just becomes too large to overcome.
 
A

artredis1980

Banned
Amir0x said:
I don't think the coverage was 'even'. Sure, they both got equal play... but McCain's was largely negative. And Palin too. and the economy loomed large.

This was just good shit for Obama.
Click to expand...

but McCain got 2 days of FULL coverage when he suspended his campaign and he got more during the hill meeting where obama also went. when Obama was in his foreign trip, McCain got 0 coverage
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
artredis1980 said:
but McCain got 2 days of FULL coverage when he suspended his campaign and he got more during the hill meeting where obama also went. when Obama was in his foreign trip, McCain got 0 coverage
Click to expand...

Not all coverage is created equal, in other words.
 
S

Sharp

Member
Amir0x said:
I don't think the coverage was 'even'. Sure, they both got equal play... but McCain's was largely negative. And Palin too. and the economy loomed large.

This was just good shit for Obama.
Click to expand...
The Palin choice is going to haunt McCain for the rest of the campaign, and I think it may dampen some of the gains he makes within the next few weeks at least. No matter how she does in the debates, the media coverage of her is going to be predominantly negative from here on out. The economy issue will in the long term hurt both candidates, I think, since last Friday's debate didn't really clarify a lot to most American voters about why the bailout is necessary. However, people seem to be predisposed towards believing that Obama has the edge on economic issues, so that too may end up being a long-term negative for McCain. Those are the only two things that I think will last much beyond this week, though. The debate is ultimately not going to affect very much.
 
T

Tobor

Member
BenjaminBirdie said:
This is the important thing. Regardless of the debates, it shows McCain's stunt gained him absolutely nothing.
Click to expand...

McCain should jumped over Snake River Canyon in a jet car.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Sharp said:
The Palin choice is going to haunt McCain for the rest of the campaign, and I think it may dampen some of the gains he makes within the next few weeks at least. No matter how she does in the debates, the media coverage of her is going to be predominantly negative from here on out. The economy issue will in the long term hurt both candidates, I think, since last Friday's debate didn't really clarify a lot to most American voters about why the bailout is necessary. However, people seem to be predisposed towards believing that Obama has the edge on economic issues, so that too may end up being a long-term negative for McCain. Those are the only two things that I think will last much beyond this week, though. The debate is ultimately not going to affect very much.
Click to expand...

I think the only thing that can change things is if she -really- performs well at the debates. If Biden goes TOO easy on her and the perception is she managed to 'go toe-to-toe', it could be a big boost for her despite the interviews.

She has to really, really be on point. It's a LOOOONG shot, but if she pulls it off then it would not be surprising to see McCain come back from the brink.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Amir0x said:
I don't think the coverage was 'even'. Sure, they both got equal play... but McCain's was largely negative. And Palin too. and the economy loomed large.

This was just good shit for Obama.
Click to expand...
I think the crucial part here is that Obama is rising on what is becoming a likely theme of the final sprint - McCain, the erratic hot head. (The Newsweek cover is gold.) His favorability took a sizable hit, in front of nearly 60 million people, as opposed to a one-time event like Obama's overseas adventure or the conventions.

Also as you pointed out - today's swing is not because Obama went up today, it's because a good day for McCain - the one that cause a three point swing FOR him on Wednesday - dropped off and created a three point swing AGAINST him. Per the Gallup write-up, Obama was even to the previous day.

Which, since Bams is ahead, is just as good. :D
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
Tobor said:
McCain should jumped over Snake River Canyon in a jet car.
Click to expand...

:lol

"Steve Schmidt has just announced that John McCain will not only suspend his campaign, but suspend HIMSELF in mid air for SEVENTY HOURS, starting Monday."

(Sometimes I really amaze myself.)
 
M

MoxManiac

Member
If Obama can perform so well during his arguably weakest area (foreign policy) then i'm confident the next debates will be a slam dunk for him.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
The Lamonster said:
Woah. They did a Palin skit and a debate skit? Last night I thought it was only the Palin/Couric skit!
Click to expand...

That's in 2000
 
E

EMBee99

all that he wants is another baby
BenjaminBirdie said:
:lol

"Steve Schmidt has just announced that John McCain will not only suspend his campaign, but suspend HIMSELF in mid air for SEVENTY HOURS, starting Monday."

(Sometimes I really amaze myself.)
Click to expand...

"To show the people and his friends in this great country that it is he who is Mr. Cool, not Senator Obama, JOHN MCCAIN will FREEZE HIMSELF IN A BLOCK OF ICE on the STEPS OF THE CAPITOL BUILDING for ONE WEEK!"

(Really, it should be Sarah Palin, so she could miss the debate)
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
EMBee99 said:
"To show the people and his friends in this great country that it is he who is Mr. Cool, not Senator Obama, JOHN MCCAIN will FREEZE HIMSELF IN A BLOCK OF ICE on the STEPS OF THE CAPITOL BUILDING for ONE WEEK!"

(Really, it should be Sarah Palin, so she could miss the debate)
Click to expand...

Ooh damn, that's a good one.
 
S

Sharp

Member
MoxManiac said:
If Obama can perform so well during his arguably weakest area (foreign policy) then i'm confident the next debates will be a slam dunk for him.
Click to expand...
It won't be. McCain is an excellent debater, and I honestly thought he did better during the economic part of the debate than Obama did. Of course, I thought McCain won the debate overall, so I may just be talking out of my ass here, but McCain's rhetoric about cutting government spending fits better with the image that the government has to do something to deal with this bailout, while Obama's in general does not. The actual impact of the policies or the truth of the rhetoric aside, it sounds better in a debate. Plus, if the reason people think Obama won was because he proved that he could stand toe-to-toe with McCain on foreign policy, that makes the next debate all the tougher--Obama is now the expected winner, not McCain, and McCain will benefit from the underdog status just as Obama did unless he can pull off a very decisive victory.
 
T

Tobor

Member
Sharp said:
It won't be. McCain is an excellent debater, and I honestly thought he did better during the economic part of the debate than Obama did. Of course, I thought McCain won the debate overall, so I may just be talking out of my ass here, but McCain's rhetoric about cutting government spending fits better with the image that the government has to do something to deal with this bailout, while Obama's in general does not. The actual impact of the policies or the truth of the rhetoric aside, it sounds better in a debate. Plus, if the reason people think Obama won was because he proved that he could stand toe-to-toe with McCain on foreign policy, that makes the next debate all the tougher--Obama is now the expected winner, not McCain, and McCain will benefit from the underdog status just as Obama did unless he can pull off a very decisive victory.
Click to expand...

I think you need to go back and look at the polling data from the first debate.
 
S

Sharp

Member
Door2Dawn said:
Cutting spending alone isn't going to get this economy back on track. That argument is weak as hell,and everyone knows it.
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No. But it sounds better in conjunction with a bailout bill, because it seems like the government is at least trying to do something about what is perceived by many as a huge amount of excess bloat. How many people do you know who don't complain about how their tax dollars are used? The bailout thing is just the latest, most egregious example, and people want to hear that things are being cut even if the actual cuts are dwarfed by the size of the bill and the tax breaks that they get. At least, I think they want to hear that. I was totally wrong about the debate so I may be totally wrong about this too.
Tobor said:
I think you need to go back and look at the polling data from the first debate.
Click to expand...
I know the polling data from the first debate, I know what the American people in general thought about it. I just don't really know why. Like I said, I thought McCain won the debate overall.
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Sharp said:
It won't be. McCain is an excellent debater, and I honestly thought he did better during the economic part of the debate than Obama did. Of course, I thought McCain won the debate overall, so I may just be talking out of my ass here, but McCain's rhetoric about cutting government spending fits better with the image that the government has to do something to deal with this bailout, while Obama's in general does not. The actual impact of the policies or the truth of the rhetoric aside, it sounds better in a debate. Plus, if the reason people think Obama won was because he proved that he could stand toe-to-toe with McCain on foreign policy, that makes the next debate all the tougher--Obama is now the expected winner, not McCain, and McCain will benefit from the underdog status just as Obama did unless he can pull off a very decisive victory.
Click to expand...

Sharp, you are quickly becoming the new Cheebs
 
T

Tim-E

Member
BenjaminBirdie said:
Damn, why does the Live Obama feed keep cutting out after every speaker?
Click to expand...

I noticed this, too.

Also, how many people are supposed to be at this event today? I figured since both Obama and Biden will be there along with their spouses it's probably a large scale event.

Rur0ni said:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neiYzaiXHpY

New (finalized) Thank John McCain ad going on air in Colorado. Guy wants to put it in another state if possible. MO, VA, and NC would be nice. ;)
Click to expand...

:D I love it.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Door2Dawn said:
Cutting spending alone isn't going to get this economy back on track. That argument is weak as hell,and everyone knows it.
Click to expand...
And who was he talking to? Where is this big contingent of voters who think government pork spending is the big problem right now? People want the government to get off their ass on healthcare, housing and energy and do something. So railing on and on about earmarks is speaking to an audience that doesn't exist. It's McCain's big signature stand, but he doesn't seem to realize people don't give a shit.
Rur0ni said:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neiYzaiXHpY

New (finalized) Thank John McCain ad going on air in Colorado. Guy wants to put it in another state if possible. MO, VA, and NC would be nice. ;)
Click to expand...
McCain defending lobbyists and being so passionate about how hard he worked to elect and re-elect Bush are just damning. I hope they get it funded for a few good runs.
 
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