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PoliGAF Thread of Republican's Turn at Conventions (Palin VP - READ OP)

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GhaleonEB

Member
esbern said:
i know everybody loves this website, but the fact that they dont attempt to increase the statistical significance of their already poor sample group by removing the outliers confuses me.
While they don't exclude them entirely, pollsters with poor records are given a much lower weighting in their model than pollsters with good records.
 
Cheebs said:
Obama is far more charismatic at town halls than McCain is at his. I have watched many from both. McCain answers the questions and moves on. Obama spends half the time being sarcastic going back and forth with the asker like about what they are wearing...etc. He talks on a much more personal and far more sarcastic manner with his audience at Q & A's than McCain who tends to be very straight laced.

Ah OK, so McCain answers the questions, while Obama throws out some rhetoric and all the questioner goes home thinking is "Holy shit! Obama said he liked my shirt! fap fap fap"

I got it.
 
I see that CNN is actually covering Ron Paul's convention. I really hope that Paul and Barr can cause enough of a rift in a state or two to swing them Obama's way. I'm looking at you Georgia.
 

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
GhaleonEB said:
While they don't exclude them entirely, pollsters with poor records are given a much lower weighting in their model than pollsters with good records.

They've excluded Zogby Interactive completely from their latest simulation.

King_Slender said:
Ah OK, so McCain answers the questions, while Obama throws out some rhetoric and all the questioner goes home thinking is "Holy shit! Obama said he liked my shirt! fap fap fap"

I got it.

DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT THE PHRASE "SPENDS HALF THE TIME..." MEANS?!
 

Hootie

Member
harSon said:
Thank you Mccain, this Vice President pick was perfect.

Yeah, it was a slam dunk.

29y2fzo.jpg
 
PhoenixDark said:
I'm starting to believe Hannity/Fox/Rush/etc did Obama a favor by hammering the Wright/Ayers stuff nonstop the minute he entered the race. Voters were exposed to those various stories and smears for more than a year, a long enough time to get to know the candidate and determine whether his past associations were worth taking into account inside the voting booth. I'm sure the right will have some October smear - especially when you consider the free fall McCain is currently in - but overall the public and media has digested nearly everything there is to know about Obama. He was vetted by the American people for all to see.

Unfortunately for Palin, she was dropped into this race out of nowhere. The public and media didn't know who she was, and now she is being publically vetted. If she had entered the primaries all of this stuff would have been known about more than a year ago. I'm kinda starting to feel sorry for her. But more importantly this is perhaps the ultimate example of McCain's poor judgment. This is turning out to be a disaster. We know the McCain camp is currently in Alaska trying to "investigate" all of this stuff, but in reality they're merely trying to ensure the leaks stop. He's on thin ice right now. If a cover up gets exposed, McCain is done.
I've thought along these lines before too. In a round about way, Sean Hannity was Barack (HUSSEIN) Obama's biggest asset in this election.
 

Tamanon

Banned
ToyMachine228 said:
I see that CNN is actually covering Ron Paul's convention. I really hope that Paul and Barr can cause enough of a rift in a state or two to swing them Obama's way. I'm looking at you Georgia.

Apparently there are negotiations for Paul's support of McCain, but it would involve his delegates getting time on the floor. I don't see that getting through.
 

sangreal

Member
laserbeam said:
His acceptance speech was delibertly done on the day it was to drive home the racial identity fact while trying to say racial politics is not being done at all.

What? The date was set before Obama even announced he was running
 

GhaleonEB

Member
reilo said:
They've excluded Zogby Interactive completely from their latest simulation.
The wording made it sound like it wasn't in their summary, but was included in their model. Either way, they account for Zogby Iteractive being utter crap.

It's worth noting that I do think Palin rallied the GOP base - McCain's numbers have drifted up. She's just driven away more than she's attracted.

08USPresGEMvO600.png


Similar trend at RCP.
 

laserbeam

Banned
Tamanon said:
Apparently there are negotiations for Paul's support of McCain, but it would involve his delegates getting time on the floor. I don't see that getting through.
Ron Paul for VP confirmed.
 

Fatalah

Member
FiveThirtyEight is the only reason I'm able to sleep at night.

If there were an numbers to trust, it's a guy from the Baseball Prospectus. I just have to!

But is there another FiveThirtyEight out there?
 

Gaborn

Member
Tamanon said:
Apparently there are negotiations for Paul's support of McCain, but it would involve his delegates getting time on the floor. I don't see that getting through.

Considering they actually gave Rudy "I got fewer votes and control fewer delegates but I was there on 9/11" Giuliani the KEYNOTE speech but wouldn't allow Paul a spot at the convention to speak I don't see it happening.
 

laserbeam

Banned
Tobor said:
Is there any chance whatsoever Palin drops out and McCain somehow recovers? It would be checkmate, right?
It would majorly depend on the circumstances.It would cause harm but what amount is hard to guess.
 

ronito

Member
Tamanon said:
Apparently there are negotiations for Paul's support of McCain, but it would involve his delegates getting time on the floor. I don't see that getting through.
Oh yeah. I don't agree with Ron Paul a lot, but he has my respect in sticking to his guns. I'd be shocked if that went through.
 
VanMardigan said:
With all the focus on the "celebrity" garbage, negative ads that distort positions, and the Palin pregnancy non-sense, I'd have to agree. But who do we blame?
He's not saying, "Unfortunately, this campaign has stopped being about issues." He's saying, "Issues don't matter. Once people get to know 'the real' John McCain, they'll choose him over Obama."
 

Fatalah

Member
Tobor said:
Is there any chance whatsoever Palin drops out and McCain somehow recovers? It would be checkmate, right?

In my eyes, no. If McCain's running on the fact that he's decisive and experienced, changing his VP pick would be a huge contradiction of that.

But I'm no political guru.
 

syllogism

Member
Tobor said:
Is there any chance whatsoever Palin drops out and McCain somehow recovers? It would be checkmate, right?
Obviously she will not drop out unless there's a [major] scandal, but McCain can still recover. Wouldn't be all that shocking if the race was tied next week, and certainly he could do well in debates. While to use it appears Palin is a disaster, it's quite possible and even likely none of these stories matter will matter in the end. Her radical positions should however.
 
Tobor said:
Is there any chance whatsoever Palin drops out and McCain somehow recovers? It would be checkmate, right?

She'd have to do it before accepting the nomination in a couple days iirc. I don't see it happening, although I'm wondering if McCain wishes he picked his vp before Obama afterall :lol
 
Tobor said:
Is there any chance whatsoever Palin drops out and McCain somehow recovers? It would be checkmate, right?

I don't think he'd ever be able to live it down. "Can't even decide a Vice President," et al, ad nauseum.
 
Tobor said:
Is there any chance whatsoever Palin drops out and McCain somehow recovers? It would be checkmate, right?
Does anyone seriously think she's going to get dumped? I mean it's not THAT bad, is it? Is it?
 

Gaborn

Member
PhoenixDark said:
She'd have to do it before accepting the nomination in a couple days iirc. I don't see it happening, although I'm wondering if McCain wishes he picked his vp before Obama afterall :lol

It's traditional that the incumbent party has their convention last and it doesn't make a lot of sense to blow your load on your vp choice when it's impact will be negated with the other party's convention.

Gary - Only on GAF and a few liberal blogs. Most people don't view the scandals as major.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
BenjaminBirdie said:
I don't think he'd ever be able to live it down. "Can't even decide a Vice President," et al, ad nauseum.
In his first real presidential decision - who should be vice president - he failed miserably. Dropping her would just make it worse.

Plus, the second choice would live in her shadow. How would you like to come in second place, behind Sarah Palin?
 

TDG

Banned
To be honest, I almost feel sorry for the Republicans at this point. They likely had grand plans for the conventions, with entire days devoted to glorifying Republican leadership, and making sure everyone in the USA knows that McCain is a war hero. But he tried to be risky (I don't know what the reason for panic was... was he intimidated by the Democratic Convention?) and go with the game changing pick, but he rushed it, and now the convention is being over shadowed by us "getting to know" Palin, and by Hurricane Gustav.

When you look at the pre-convention polls, McCain was right in this thing. He had no reason to panic. If he had gone with a safe pick, Obama would've had a big convention bounced, which would've been minimized by the RNC, as the election got closer McCain could just keep making himself out to be the safest choice, avoid gaffes, and hope to get the win. I have no clue why McCain made the knee-jerk VP pick he made, but he's paying the price now.
 

Tobor

Member
Gary Whitta said:
Does anyone seriously think she's going to get dumped? I mean it's not THAT bad, is it? Is it?

To be fair, no I don't. For the very reason I asked the question. I wanted to see what everyone else thought. Palin is a big deal to the mainstream though, in either camp.

I'll tell you one thing though, Pro-choice beliefs aside, Carville was right. He should have picked Snowe.
 

Fatalah

Member
Gary Whitta said:
Does anyone seriously think she's going to get dumped? I mean it's not THAT bad, is it? Is it?

Actually, you're right. We might be living in our little political bubble here where Palin is a nightmare choice.

But, for the rest of America...

Palin is only a big deal if CNN/MSNBC/ABCnews/CBSnews do their jobs.
 
TDG said:
To be honest, I almost feel sorry for the Republicans at this point. They likely had grand plans for the conventions, with entire days devoted to glorifying Republican leadership, and making sure everyone in the USA knows that McCain is a war hero. But he tried to be risky (I don't know what the reason for panic was... was he intimidated by the Democratic Convention?) and go with the game changing pick, but he rushed it, and now the convention is being over shadowed by us "getting to know" Palin, and by Hurricane Gustav.

When you look at the pre-convention polls, McCain was right in this thing. He had no reason to panic. If he had gone with a safe pick, Obama would've had a big convention bounced, which would've been minimized by the RNC, as the election got closer McCain could just keep making himself out to be the safest choice, avoid gaffes, and hope to get the win. I have no clue why McCain made the knee-jerk VP pick he made, but he's paying the price now.

I can understand feeling sorry for Palin, but not the republican party. McCain has put them in a horrible position though
 

140.85

Cognitive Dissonance, Distilled
Hate to break it to you guys, but to most Americans that church speech is going to be anything but a liability.
 
Gaborn said:
Gary - Only on GAF and a few liberal blogs. Most people don't view the scandals as major.

From what I can tell, it's all the pundits are talking about. It's sucking up all the air in the room. Even if someone can't agree that the pick was bad, I think everyone can agree that the rollout strategy by the GOP was completely awful.
 
Gary Whitta said:
Does anyone seriously think she's going to get dumped? I mean it's not THAT bad, is it? Is it?

I'm still trying to figure out what the BIG deal is.

1) Her daughter is pregnant - OK, so she isn't saddling her daughter with guilt by turning down the VP nod because of it - this is bad how?

2) The AIP thing. She was an Alaskan politician and is no longer a part of the group. I'll start following this story as soon as we see some more William Ayers coverage and the 3 years Obama headed a foundation with him. Both are non-issues, IMO.

3) Troopergate. Is it any more seedy than Obama funneling $14M to Tony Rezko and getting a $300K break on his home loan? Both are abuses of power if true.


Really, what the media hates is that Palin is not one of the 'elite' who they have hob-nobbed with and has any interest in serving their needs. More than anything, I think the MSM is just pissed they had all this ammunition against Romney and Pawlenty, and they are now scrambling for things on Palin and they can't come up with anything major.
 
Tamanon said:
Apparently there are negotiations for Paul's support of McCain, but it would involve his delegates getting time on the floor. I don't see that getting through.

If Paul has any scruples he won't support McCain. They are complete opposites. He actually believes in fiscal conservatism, McCain doesn't. They're complete opposites on foreign policy. Honestly, if anything I see more in common with Obama and Paul than McCain and Paul. I don't think he'll end up supporting anyone. Well, besides maybe Bob Barr.
 

Barrett2

Member
BenjaminBirdie said:
Except it's on the front page of every paper I've seen here in the city.

The average person hasn't even learned of the scandals yet. Just wait a few more days for the information to disseminate amongst the masses, I could see it turning very fast.

Just wait til this hits.

Once the typical undecided voter gets wind of all of this, they will sour on her.
 
Fatalah said:
Actually, you're right. We might be living in our little political bubble here where Palin is a nightmare choice.

But, for the rest of America...

Palin is only a big deal if CNN/MSNBC/ABCnews/CBSnews do their hit-jobs.

fixed
 

TDG

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I can understand feeling sorry for Palin, but not the republican party. McCain has put them in a horrible position though
I do feel sorry for Palin, she's really been thrust into this position that she's not ready for. However, I only almost feel sorry for the GOP.
 
TDG said:
I do feel sorry for Palin, she's really been thrust into this position that she's not ready for. However, I only almost feel sorry for the GOP.
Well, she should have thought this thing through before accepting the position.
 

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
You know the most baffling thing? McCain's campaign decide to go into this radical new direction (and away from the experience angle) JUST as polls were showing a tightening race. Which would indicate, to me at least, that their message was actually working. A safer pick for him (Pawlenty) would've allowed him to continue that seemingly successful route, but maybe they figured they couldn't use that same tactic once Obama picked Biden for VP? Someone help me out here.
 
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