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PoliGAF Thread of Republican's Turn at Conventions (Palin VP - READ OP)

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K

Karma Kramer

Banned
Door2Dawn said:
[IM]http://userserve-ak.last.fm/serve/_/227479.jpg[/IMG]
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Ugh... someone please just give me a summary...

I was traveling all day... I really want to know!

Tamanon said:
Karma: A good day. Nothing bad happened, just the second day analysis of the Palin pick which has been pretty negative so far. For the day, Obama/Biden just did some palling around in Ohio.
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Thanks! Sounds good.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
typhonsentra said:
It should also be pointed out that he hasn't held the position in over a decade either. How did Redstate even get this footage?
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Some guy's cameraphone on a plane of their conversation. I dunno what Kilo wants us to do, we all agree he's an asshole, he has no position of power to relinquish, no public office to assail!
 
K

King_Slender

Banned
Fragamemnon said:
lol@zogby interactive
Click to expand...

I actually have no idea as to the reputation of Zogby.

But, according to Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...al_election/general_election_match_up_history

Traditionally, candidates get a 10-13% bump out of a convention, and Obama got 4-8% (depending on the source). To boot, the speech that liberals are falling all over for (honestly, a fantastic SHOW, but a pretty typical convention speech with all the Democratic talking points), only gave him a 1% bump from 8/29 to 8/30 when pitted up against the Palin selection.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
UltimaKilo said:
what poll was Obama up 4-9 points on? I heard it in the background yesterday.
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Gallup.

538s Pollster rankings:

2529867241_28d60ff95a_o.png
 
L

laserbeam

Banned
Karma Kramer said:
Ugh... someone please just give me a summary...

I was traveling all day... I really want to know!
Click to expand...

The day overall was really quiet. McCain and Palin campaigned in PA, Obama and Biden in OH
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
King_Slender said:
I actually have no idea as to the reputation of Zogby.

But, according to Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...al_election/general_election_match_up_history

Traditionally, candidates get a 10-13% bump out of a convention, and Obama got 4-8% (depending on the source). To boot, the speech that liberals are falling all over for (honestly, a fantastic SHOW, but a pretty typical convention speech with all the Democratic talking points), only gave him a 1% bump from 8/29 to 8/30 when pitted up against the Palin selection.
Click to expand...


where do you see that candidates get a 10-13% bump? there was a post here earlier with graphs and numbers showing that traditionally, its a 6% bump! bill clinton had one of the largest with a 13-14% bump .. obama had, what? 8% ? which is above the norm.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
quadriplegicjon said:
where do you see that candidates get a 10-13% bump? there was a post here earlier with graphs and numbers showing that traditionally, its a 6% bump! bill clinton had one of the largest with a 13-14% bump .. obama had, what? 8% ? which is above the norm.
Click to expand...

Obama had a +10 in Gallup and a +5 with Rasmussen.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
quadriplegicjon said:
where do you see that candidates get a 10-13% bump? there was a post here earlier with graphs and numbers showing that traditionally, its a 6% bump! bill clinton had one of the largest with a 13-14% bump .. obama had, what? 8% ? which is above the norm.
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I'd wager he got the figure from where he normally does.;)
 
A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
King_Slender said:
I actually have no idea as to the reputation of Zogby.

But, according to Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...al_election/general_election_match_up_history

Traditionally, candidates get a 10-13% bump out of a convention, and Obama got 4-8% (depending on the source). To boot, the speech that liberals are falling all over for (honestly, a fantastic SHOW, but a pretty typical convention speech with all the Democratic talking points), only gave him a 1% bump from 8/29 to 8/30 when pitted up against the Palin selection.
Click to expand...


http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html

Note that we find the average peak bounce to be about 6 points. This is highly consistent with Tom Holbrook's research, where he found the average bounce to be 5.9 points in conventions conducted since 1964. A 6-point convention bounce represents par. If a candidate gets a bounce larger than 6 points, that can be considered to be a good sign. If the bounce is smaller than 6 points, that can be considered to be a bad sign.
Click to expand...
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
King_Slender said:
I actually have no idea as to the reputation of Zogby.
Click to expand...

total shit

But, according to Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...al_election/general_election_match_up_history

Traditionally, candidates get a 10-13% bump out of a convention, and Obama got 4-8% (depending on the source). To boot, the speech that liberals are falling all over for (honestly, a fantastic SHOW, but a pretty typical convention speech with all the Democratic talking points), only gave him a 1% bump from 8/29 to 8/30 when pitted up against the Palin selection.
Click to expand...

Actually the average "bounce" is six points. Big post, but worth reading:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html

And more data:

http://election08data.blogspot.com/2008/08/convention-bumps.html

Obama's getting an average bounce-however, in the age of later and later conventions and less interest overall in the conventions (though Obama did seem to change that this year, ratings were overall excellent), it's important to note that convention bounces aren't what they used to be.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
King_Slender said:
I actually have no idea as to the reputation of Zogby.

But, according to Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...al_election/general_election_match_up_history

Traditionally, candidates get a 10-13% bump out of a convention, and Obama got 4-8% (depending on the source). To boot, the speech that liberals are falling all over for (honestly, a fantastic SHOW, but a pretty typical convention speech with all the Democratic talking points), only gave him a 1% bump from 8/29 to 8/30 when pitted up against the Palin selection.
Click to expand...


Rasmussen is wrong. They normally do not get a 10-13% bump. At this point I wonder if Rasmussen knows what the fuck they are talking about. I see him on FoxNews like every other week.
 
K

King_Slender

Banned
Fragamemnon said:
total shit



Actually the average "bounce" is six points. Big post, but worth reading:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html

And more data:

http://election08data.blogspot.com/2008/08/convention-bumps.html

Obama's getting an average bounce-however, in the age of later and later conventions and less interest overall in the conventions (though Obama did seem to change that this year, ratings were overall excellent), it's important to note that convention bounces aren't what they used to be.
Click to expand...

True - probably due to the instant availability of information on the net - everything is pretty much known before the conventions - which is what makes Palin such a wild card. If she even comes out even with Biden in the VP debate, it will be a total embarassment for him.
 
UltimaKilo

UltimaKilo

Gold Member
Shit this hurricane is going to be very bad. It reminds me of Hurricane Andrew here in the 90s. And we have Hanna on the way so it looks like I'll be helping the whole neighborhood put up their shutters again! :(
 
A

AniHawk

Member
King_Slender said:
True - probably due to the instant availability of information on the net - everything is pretty much known before the conventions - which is what makes Palin such a wild card. If she even comes out even with Biden in the VP debate, it will be a total embarassment for him.
Click to expand...

Considering that absolutely won't happen, they're gonna play the sexism card a lot.
 
T

Tommie Hu$tle

Member
NLB2 said:
The LA NG is currently being mobilized to help relief efforts. They're not in Iraq atm.

The Blackwater roll call looks like a good oportunity for some GAFers to make good money.
Click to expand...

NO wouldn't pay anywhere near what a trip to Southwest Asia would pay for a mid-level operator. The plus side for Blackwater is positive media on providing additional support for the affected areas. The negative is that unless they were clearly marked (had uniforms) which is typically not done in southwest Asia you could see some ok-corral type shootouts going on in some local area.

Overall I think that most organizations would most likely use Blackwater in the most dire of circumstances an even at that it would be as close to under the radar as everyone could keep it (aka overflights & surveillance)
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
True - probably due to the instant availability of information on the net - everything is pretty much known before the conventions - which is what makes Palin such a wild card. If she even comes out even with Biden in the VP debate, it will be a total embarassment for him.
Click to expand...

every time someone mentions that she might "come out even" with biden in a debate I'm reminded of that Cheers episode where Cliff goes on Jeopardy and the categories are like "beer", "postal stamps", and "boston red sox".
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
King_Slender said:
True - probably due to the instant availability of information on the net - everything is pretty much known before the conventions - which is what makes Palin such a wild card. If she even comes out even with Biden in the VP debate, it will be a total embarassment for him.
Click to expand...


It's TOTALLY impossible for her to come out even with Biden. Again completely impossible!
 
B

BrokenFiction

Member
Fragamemnon said:
every time someone mentions that she might "come out even" with biden in a debate I'm reminded of that Cheers episode where Cliff goes on Jeopardy and the categories are like "beer", "postal stamps", and "boston red sox".
Click to expand...

:lol Classic!
 
A

AniHawk

Member
King_Slender said:
I guarantee that won't happen - Republicans are not ones to play the victim card.
Click to expand...
One word: Checkers.

Thunder Monkey said:
They play the accusation card a lot and well.
Click to expand...

Yeah, and this. McCain's campaign's having no problem repeating pretty much everything Hillary threw at Obama during the primaries and then some. Expect it to come up, and to bring race back into it at the end to throw doubt into the minds of voters and scare them into staying home.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
King_Slender said:
I guarantee that won't happen - Republicans are not ones to play the victim card.
Click to expand...

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

Now that's a points-worthy post!
 
K

King_Slender

Banned
Fragamemnon said:
every time someone mentions that she might "come out even" with biden in a debate I'm reminded of that Cheers episode where Cliff goes on Jeopardy and the categories are like "beer", "postal stamps", and "boston red sox".
Click to expand...

Who are 3 people that have never been in my kitchen?
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
I can't wait to see what Palin's response will be when asked "Do you believe that oral contraceptives should be available to American women?".

Even better: I'd love to see McCain answer if he would support judges that would overturn Griswold v. Connecticut. I do so wish our media would ask interesting questions of our candidates instead of figuring out what shitty music they keep in their ipods.

Edit2: Here's another question to ask Sarah Palin-name three Supreme Court cases-any cases, any year-besides Roe vs. Wade.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
King_Slender said:
I guarantee that won't happen - Republicans are not ones to play the victim card.
Click to expand...


I'm not a betting guy, but how much would you put up on that statement of yours?
 
J

Jak140

Member
King_Slender said:
I guarantee that won't happen - Republicans are not ones to play the victim card.
Click to expand...
Haha. Obviously you didn't see the female talking head that the Repubs put on CNN yesterday. She was blatantly threatening the sexism card. Not to mention that every criticism of McCain inevitably devolves into "how dare you! he was a POW."
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Agent Icebeezy said:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html
Click to expand...
FWIW, Gallup has been measuring convention bounces for decades (and is one of the data points in fivethirtyeight's analysis) and also found a 5-6 point to be typical.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109702/Conventions-Typically-Result-FivePoint-Bounce.aspx

They measure the bounce as the first tracking poll to cover the three days after the convention ends against the polling from the day before the convention started. So they will compare this past Monday's tracker against this coming Monday (which will cover Fri-Sun). Expect some talking heads to chew on Obama's convention bounce Monday night for far too long.
 
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