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From First Read:

*** Off the radar: While many folks are wondering how the GOP ticket is going to break through Gustav, it appears they'll get more attention than Obama-Biden right now. Attention to the Dem ticket is nearly nil. They are getting plenty of local coverage during their initial tour and will get some major play on "60 Minutes" tonight. But since the announcement of Palin and the strengthening of Gustav, coverage of Obama-Biden has slowed to a trickle. What this means for any convention bounce is unclear. There was always going to be a weird vibe to the post-convention trip for Obama-Biden simply because attention was going to go to McCain so quickly. With the naming of Palin, it accelerated the drying up of Obama-Biden national coverage.

I gotta say I think this is intentional and brilliant. Barack Obama doesn't need attention from the national media. The last big media image emblazoned in people's minds was his big speech. Meanwhile, McCain's choice is getting scrutinized and picked apart. The CW among Republicans has always been that if the election is about Obama, then Obama loses. Chuck Todd has outlined that the Obama campaign's is best at controlling the image. It's almost a perfect situation. Meanwhile, Obama has a great image on the national stage and continues to run his targeted local negative ads on McCain and depends on his on-the-ground people to push the message when he's not campaigning there.

The media still hasn't figured out that the Obama campaign doesn't need to depend on them to get their message out. McCain's, on the other hand, is desperate for media attention.

 

[Tyrone Slothrop]

lol @ kerry

"she's back there with the flat-earth caucus"

go get 'em

 

[gkryhewy]

lol @ kerry

"she's back there with the flat earth caucus"

Oh, perfect! :lol

 

[Freedom = $1.05]

I've heard more talk about McCain's age and health in the past 2 days from major media outlets than I have in the past 3 months. What was once a near-taboo subject has become a serious issue.

The longer this goes on the worse this looks. She'd better have one hell of a speech at the convention.

If her voice is anything to go by "hell" is the best way to put it. Especially it its +15 minutes.

 

[Kolgar]

You're acting is it if were a god thing when uninformed people vote style over substance. >_<

Huh? I think you meant: "You're acting as if it were a good thing when uninformed people vote style over substance."

Hardly. I'm just saying that's quite often the way it is. I think there are too many dummies on the road, too, but at least you need a license to drive.

But that's the way it is with elections. You think everyone who will vote for Obama will do so because they agree with all of his policies? I think he's going to get a hell of a lot of Americans off their couches and into the voting booth simply because he's a charismatic character with such an attractive message of hope and optimism. (Oh, and the fact that everybody hates Bush will help, too.)

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Heh, you just watch. This race may just be more about psychology and marketing than what we're used to. The issues are always important, but this race is a lot about personality, too.

If Palin handles herself right, she may just make people fall in love.

...And she has just over 2 months to do that.

Let's be real here. She's a VP nominee, to the already faltering McCain. Have we ever seen a campaign turn the tables based on a VP before? Much less a VP that doesn't know anything about the most pertinent campaign issues?

 

[ronito]

lol @ kerry

"she's back there with the flat-earth caucus"

go get 'em

This is why Kerry lost. While he's very good at speaking to democratic sensibilities he doesn't know how to bring over the middle ground. Democrats hear something like that and they're like "That's too true!"

Middle ground voters hear that and they're like: "No one really believes that the earth is flat do they?

Republicans: "Hells yeah she is!"

 

[Haunted]

Huh? I think you meant: "You're acting as if it were a good thing when uninformed people vote style over substance."

Hardly. I'm just saying that's quite often the way it is. I think there are too many dummies on the road, too, but at least you need a license to drive.

But that's the way it is with elections. You think everyone who will vote for Obama will do so because they agree with all of his policies? I think he's going to get a hell of a lot of Americans off their couches and into the voting booth simply because he's a charismatic character with such an attractive message of hope and optimism. (Oh, and the fact that everybody hates Bush will help, too.)

Yes, those were typos on my part, I'm sorry. I'm multi-tasking here and not doing a good job of it. >_<


But hey, so we essentially agree. I don't want people to vote for Obama without knowing what he stands for and what his plans are, same as with McCain. I think what's important is that everyone tries to cut down on these numbers as much as possible (by getting the word on 'the substance' out), instead of relying on them to get them elected.


A naive view, I know. :/

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

If it weren't for the hurricane, what the hell would the Republicans even talk about at the convention?

 

[echoshifting]

Eh, I don't think it's going to matter in the end, but the more I read about her the more I think the dems are going to drop the ball with Palin. The corruption accusations are serious, but the information seems extremely difficult to present to anyone who isn't already skeptical of her record. The inexperience thing is also tough, because it reminds people that they've been hearing (from the McCain camp) that this Obama guy doesn't have the experience he needs either, and Obama's on top of the ticket. And, as has already been beaten into the ground, she mutes some of Biden's best traits substantially.

Obama's still going to win - by a lot - but I think it's a mistake to line Palin up in the crosshairs. I agree that sending Clinton after her would be great, but that's assuming she's willing to compromise her own position in '12 or '16 by leaving some of her female voters feeling like she "went after one of their own."

 

[PS2 KID]

If it weren't for the hurricane, what the hell would the Republicans even talk about at the convention?

Anything but the current President and Vice President. Those two are major liabilities. They should thank their lucky stars they won't be there. :lol

 

[syllogism]

If it weren't for the hurricane, what the hell would the Republicans even talk about at the convention?

Obama, POW, surge

 

[The Librarian]

Obama

Yep.

 

[Kolgar]

...And she has just over 2 months to do that.

Let's be real here. She's a VP nominee, to the already faltering McCain. Have we ever seen a campaign turn the tables based on a VP before? Much less a VP that doesn't know anything about the most pertinent campaign issues?

Frankly, I think Obama should have a slam dunk. He's a fresh face, a new brand, the Democratic party's knight in shining armor. That plus George W. Bush's atrocious approval rating should make Obama a sure bet this November.

But hey, we don't know everything yet (as you said, we still have two months to go), and stranger things have probably happened.

I'm just enjoying it because this is the first presidential election I can remember that's been this fun to watch.

 

[Revengeance]

John Kerry: McCain is a prisoner of the right wing, not a maverick (says it at end of video)

Holy shit, Kerry on the attack. I love it.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

lol @ kerry

"she's back there with the flat-earth caucus"

go get 'em

Does she really believe that the earth is flat?

 

[echoshifting]

I'm just enjoying it because this is the first presidential election I can remember that's been this fun to watch.

Couldn't agree more. Palin is a dopey, irresponsible risk but it sure makes for damn good television.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Obama, POW, surge

What would they say? McCain fucked up his biggest message about Obama by picking Palin. Republican pundits all over have been saying that they have to rethink their attack for the convention here.

I'm just enjoying it because this is the first presidential election I can remember that's been this fun to watch.

Can't argue there.

 

[demon]

Does she really believe that the earth is flat?

she believes creationism is a science, so she might as well.

 

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Does she really believe that the earth is flat?

he was referring to her disbelief in global warming. which is pretty much the modern day version of "the world is flat"

 

[gkryhewy]

Does she really believe that the earth is flat?

She's a creationist, which is equivalent.

 

[Trakdown]

Eh, I don't think it's going to matter in the end, but the more I read about her the more I think the dems are going to drop the ball with Palin. The corruption accusations are serious, but the information seems extremely difficult to present to anyone who isn't already skeptical of her record. The inexperience thing is also tough, because it reminds people that they've been hearing (from the McCain camp) that this Obama guy doesn't have the experience he needs either, and Obama's on top of the ticket. And, as has already been beaten into the ground, she mutes some of Biden's best traits substantially.

Obama's still going to win - by a lot - but I think it's a mistake to line Palin up in the crosshairs. I agree that sending Clinton after her would be great, but that's assuming she's willing to compromise her own position in '12 or '16 by leaving some of her female voters feeling like she "went after one of their own."

Except it's not like she went after one of their own. Not even close. Hillary supporters aren't just for her because of her biology, it's because she worked hard to get where she is, and they feel slighted because the job was given to somebody with less experience. Kinda like Palin was. If she does get in, it's going to put less motion behind Clinton's '12 or '16 run because somebody would've already accomplished something like what she wants to do- it's in Hillary's interest to shut her down so that's available for her later. Besides, don't you remember the whole "Obama is an asshole if he picks any woman other than Hillary" nonsense we just got through?

And if Terry McAuliffe is really serious about helping, I'd love to see him and his group start the "accept no substitutes" tour. If Hillary gets on board for this, the other problems Palin creates are going to take center stage and nullify any benefits it may have given McCain.

 

[GhaleonEB]

she believes creationism is a science, so she might as well.

In general a lot of her positions are anti-science; Global warming, stem cell research and creationism jump to mind.

 

[JohnTinker]

mmm...

 

[PhoenixDark]

If I was Obama I'd use this opportunity to start doing what he should have been doing the minute Hillary lost: press women issues like there's no tomorrow. This equal pay/equal work issue has gained traction recently, and was mentioned often during the DNC. It's time to hit that hard from now until November, at every stump, speech, debate, etc. Why not make a 100 Days pledge: to pass legislation guaranteeing equal pay/equal work. I bet Hillary would love to write that bill

Plus it's good to see the dem surrogates hitting Palin hard without doing it directly. The vice president should be ready to step in on day one, and is a heart beat away from the presidency

 

[echoshifting]

Except it's not like she went after one of their own. Not even close. Hillary supporters aren't just for her because of her biology, it's because she worked hard to get where she is, and they feel slighted because the job was given to somebody with less experience. Kinda like Palin was. If she does get in, it's going to put less motion behind Clinton's '12 or '16 run because somebody would've already accomplished something like what she wants to do- it's in Hillary's interest to shut her down so that's available for her later. Besides, don't you remember the whole "Obama is an asshole if he picks any woman other than Hillary" nonsense we just got through?

And if Terry McAuliffe is really serious about helping, I'd love to see him and his group start the "accept no substitutes" tour. If Hillary gets on board for this, the other problems Palin creates are going to take center stage and nullify any benefits it may have given McCain.

Good points. I can't wait to see what Clinton is going to do.

 

[Cheebs]

mmm...

Being able to hold a gun is an excuse to being 100% ignorant on all foreign policy matters?

 

[Frank the Great]

I really hope the "reform" and "anti-corruption" message is followed thru with at the RNC. It would be hilarious. Not only would it have to compete with Obama's message of change, but all Democrats would have to do is bring up Keating and Trooper-gate, and then tie it again to Bush to destroy that argument.

I have no idea what the McCain campaign is thinking. They better come up with something soon.

By the way, I don't think the Obama campaign or Clinton should do ANYTHING about Palin until at least after the convention.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

mmm...

How the South was won.

 

[ViperVisor]

:lol

Oh god someone has to make a gif of him at the end going Alaska Mother Fucker?

If anyone's gonna have sex with my sister, its gonna be ME!

 

[lexdysia]

Palin's mother-in-law isn't sure about her as VP either.

Well, she's a better speaker than McCain," Faye Palin said with a laugh. "People will say she hasn't been on the national scene long enough. But I believe she's a quick study."

Wow.

 

[Trakdown]

I really hope the "reform" and "anti-corruption" message is followed thru with at the RNC. It would be hilarious. Not only would it have to compete with Obama's message of change, but all Democrats would have to do is bring up Keating and Trooper-gate, and then tie it again to Bush to destroy that argument.

I have no idea what the McCain campaign is thinking. They better come up with something soon.

By the way, I don't think the Obama campaign or Clinton should do ANYTHING about Palin until at least after the convention.

There wouldn't be any point, since it'd get lost in the fold anyways. The news cycle is firmly attached to Gustav and that's easily going to be week long coverage.

 

[Ether_Snake]

mmm...

Wow, another one. I'll say it again; ONLY IN AMERICA!

That shit would be unthinkable in Europe. Except maybe Eastern Europe.

How uncivilized.

 

[giga]

Wow, another one. I'll say it again; ONLY IN AMERICA!

That shit would be unthinkable in Europe. Except maybe Eastern Europe.

How uncivilized.

 

[The Librarian]

John Olive yelling out: "Osama! Osama! Osama! Osama!" :lol :lol

 

[numble]

From First Read:

*** Off the radar: While many folks are wondering how the GOP ticket is going to break through Gustav, it appears they'll get more attention than Obama-Biden right now. Attention to the Dem ticket is nearly nil. They are getting plenty of local coverage during their initial tour and will get some major play on "60 Minutes" tonight. But since the announcement of Palin and the strengthening of Gustav, coverage of Obama-Biden has slowed to a trickle. What this means for any convention bounce is unclear. There was always going to be a weird vibe to the post-convention trip for Obama-Biden simply because attention was going to go to McCain so quickly. With the naming of Palin, it accelerated the drying up of Obama-Biden national coverage.

Obama to ask his donors to help storm victims

LIMA, Ohio - Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama said Sunday he will tap his huge political network of donors and volunteers to help U.S. victims of Hurricane Gustav after it comes inland.

"I think we can get tons of volunteers to travel down there, if it becomes necessary," Obama told reporters after attending St. Luke's Lutheran Church in Lima, Ohio.

"I think we can activate an e-mail list of a couple of million people who want to give back," he said. Donations could include cash, goods and individual labor, he said.

 

[reilo]

 

[Ether_Snake]

Fuck polls man.

 

[echoshifting]

What poll is that

 

[The Librarian]

"That's it? You just vote for whoever has a, uh..."
"A fun pouch."

:lol

 

[Tyrone Slothrop]

polls.gif

electoral vote for obama was 290 yesterday. quite a drop, but expected. and i thought the popular vote for mccain would be higher once palin was announced. surprised to see it still at the wire.

seems pretty good.

 

[Trakdown]

Is this factoring for anybody else running (Nader, Barr)?

 

[GhaleonEB]

Dude. CONTEXT.

Both daily tracking polls now show Barack Obama moving slightly off his convention peaks. Gallup now has his lead at 6 points -- down from 8 points yesterday -- whereas Rasmussen has it at 3 points, down from 4 points yesterday.

Under typical conditions, we would expect the convention bounce to slightly increase, rather than decrease, as we headed into the weekend after the convention. As such, our model now regards Obama as having a slightly-below-average convention bounce. Obama now leads in the Gallup and Rasmussen trackers by an average of 4.5 points. In the week before the convention began, he had led in those polls by an average of 1.2 points. So, that represents a convention bounce of 3.3 points -- below the over-under number of 6.

On the other hand, there has never before been a circumstance in which the opposing party's VP has been named immediately after the convention, an event which often produces a bounce of its own. If a typical VP bounce is 5 points, and McCain has received that VP bounce by having named Sarah Palin to his ticket, Obama can be regarded as having had an above-average convention bounce (an 8.3-point convention bounce, counteracted by a 5-point McCain VP bounce).

All of this is academic, really, since all of these bounces will fade. I just wanted to emphasize the point that, because our model adjusts for the convention bounce but not the VP bounce, it is probably lowballing Obama's numers a bit at this point. By this time next week, when the GOP has had a convention of its own, we will be in a better position to evaluate the state of the race. I would recommend that you take our numbers with a grain of salt in the interim.

As he said - polls between now and the end of the GOP convention will be kind of moot. And really don't have any historical reference point, for multiple reasons (back to back conventions, veep announcement timing, Gustav).

 

[reilo]

It's not a "poll." It's a statistical analysis on a candidate's chances to win the election. This site was built by the same stat gurus that keep predicting who is going to win the World Series each year. They know their shit.

And yes, context.

 

[Tyrone Slothrop]

yeah i only take fivethirtyeight seriously when it comes to projections, nothing else

 

[The Librarian]

It's not a "poll." It's a statistical analysis on a candidate's chances to win the election. This site was built by the same stat gurus that keep predicting who is going to win the World Series each year. They know their shit.

And yes, context.

So why did you not post the context?

HMMMMMM?

 

[Formless]

Is this factoring for anybody else running (Nader, Barr)?

Little green part in popular vote. Notice the lack of electoral votes.

 

[Toothpick]

So Bush and Cheney won't be able to make it to the RNC

 

[reilo]

Posted?

“We must redirect our efforts from the really celebratory event of the nomination of president and vice president of our party to acting as all Americans," McCain said. "We’ll change our program and I’ll be announcing details of it in the next few hours. But there’s very little doubt that we have to go from a party event to a call to the nation for action, action to help our fellow citizens in this time of tragedy and disaster, action in the form of volunteering, donations, reaching out our hands and our hearts and our wallets to the people who are under such great threat from this great natural disaster. I pledge that tomorrow night, and if necessary, throughout our convention if necessary, to act as Americans not Republicans, because America needs us now no matter whether we are Republican or Democrat."

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/08/31/1315560.aspx

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

The Republican campaign, in a nutshell.