Politico: Sanders Consistently Beats Donald Trump; It's Getting Harder To Overlook

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HUELEN10

HUELEN10

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I was just about to participate when the prior thread got locked. Mod Christine gave her blessing though, so let's try again; no funny business this time.


http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/bernies-not-so-secret-weapon-223492#ixzz49acvuVyI

Politco Summary said:
For months, Bernie Sanders and his supporters have pointed to polls that show him running comfortably ahead of Donald Trump in November. But now that Hillary Clinton’s lead over Trump has disappeared — and the two likely nominees are now running neck-and-neck in national polls — his argument is gaining new resonance.
Clinton and her campaign argue that the Vermont senator hasn’t undergone the kind of scrutiny that Clinton and Trump have — and that his poll numbers are over-inflated compared to candidates who have faced intense political attacks from the other party.
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The data remain unequivocal, however: The latest averages from HuffPost Pollster give Clinton a just less-than-2-point advantage over Trump, while Sanders — who is virtually certain to finish well behind Clinton in pledged delegates — leads Trump by 10 points. Trump has narrowed Clinton’s lead by 5 points since the end of April, while he’s only chipped 2 points off Sanders’ edge.
Moreover, there’s evidence that Clinton will face challenges uniting Democrats the way Trump has brought Republicans together since eliminating his opponents. Sanders’ backers appear increasingly hostile to Clinton, polls show — especially those voters who currently favor Sanders over Trump but say they would defect to the Republican if Clinton is the Democratic nominee.

Three polls conducted last week confirm Sanders’ advantage in the general election: An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released on Sunday showed Clinton leading Trump by 3 points, 46 percent to 43 percent. Sanders, on the other hand, had a commanding 15-point advantage, 54 percent to 39 percent.

Last week, a Fox News poll showed Clinton trailing Trump by 3 points, but Sanders ahead by 4 points. A CBS News/New York Times poll was better for Clinton, showing her leading Trump by 6 points. But Sanders was 13 points clear of Trump, that survey showed.

Some pollsters, in fact, aren’t even asking about a potential Sanders-Trump matchup. An ABC News/Washington Post poll out this weekend didn’t include Sanders in the general-election trial heats. The poll matched Clinton against Trump — showing Trump leading Clinton among registered voters, 46 percent to 44 percent — then added a hypothetical three-way race including 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney as an independent candidate.

The ballot test isn’t the only survey data point pointing to Sanders’ strong position — and the shortcomings of both Trump and Clinton. According to HuffPost Pollster, Sanders’ average image rating stands at 50 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable. That’s far better than the historically poor ratings for Trump (39 percent favorable/57 percent unfavorable) and Clinton (41 percent favorable/55 percent unfavorable).
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As for me, this kinda echoes what some people have been saying for for some time. I personally believe he has more of a chance in the end game in a general to get more independents/NPAs (like myself) and even republicans as opposed to his same-party competition. That is one of the things that some of us think makes him a case for a more likely victory over Trump.
 
Cross posting once more

Well, mostly because it's Sanders supporters that are the reason that Hillary does worse versus Trump than Sanders does.

One is that Bernie Sanders’s supporters are a big reason Clinton is doing worse in her polling against Trump. In the recent YouGov poll, Clinton had just a 40-point lead against Trump among Sanders voters, while Sanders had a 70-point lead. Trump was getting virtually the same share of the vote against both candidates — 40 percent against Clinton, 39 percent against Sanders. Presumably most Sanders supporters will ultimately get behind Clinton, and, on the flip side, Clinton supporters would have been much more negative on Sanders if he had posed a more serious threat to her victory.

The second thing is that Sanders just hasn’t faced any major attacks on his record. The Republicans have cheered him on against Clinton, whom they realize they’re inevitably going to face. Clinton never really attacked him, either — no big negative television ad buys, for example — in no small part because she didn’t want to alienate his supporters.

So Sanders is set to lose, but in a way that leaves him unscathed and therefore appearing very strong in the general. There was something similar with John Kasich. Maybe Sanders really would have survived all of the attacks from Clinton that would have come if he had been a bigger threat to win the nomination. But as it is, it’s just a question mark.
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It's also wouldn't be correct that he's not winning true independents.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/734831467256287233

CjKlUz_UkAAdChc.jpg:large


Given that he's been attacked with kids's gloves and Republicans are frothing at the thought of running against him, and almost every single attack against Hillary has already been used, it'd be fair to assume those are close to Bernie's ceiling with swing voters and Hillary's floor.
 
Well yeah we have the data that he performs better in the general, but what does this data really do? Do the super-delegates all of a sudden vote to shift sides?
 
He's not going to be the nominee, so who cares?

If he was the nominee, he would wither under the constant barrage of Republican attacks. Why? Because he has had radical and bizarre stances and views in the past.
 
catmincer said:
It doesn't matter though? She's going to be the nominee,more people voted for her.
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Measley said:
He's not going to be the nominee, so who cares?

If he was the nominee, he would wither under the constant barrage of Republican attacks. Why? Because he has had radical and bizarre stances and views in the past.
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Truth be told, we don't know until ti's over. Still many weeks to the DNC. Please don't just say who cares or it doesn't matter, at least read the points raised.
 
I think that unfortunately for a lot of average Americans, a Clinton-Trump ticket looks like 'an outsider' vs. 'the system', whether reality reflects that or not. And this year a lot of people, who aren't necessarily the parties bases, want an outsider.
 
As someone who campaigns for Bernie, and ran to be a delegate, I can say that I'm not a fanatic.

Come the general, I'll actually campaign for Clinton by phone banking and canvassing across state lines, would any of you Clinton supporters do that if Bernie managed to get the nomination? I have a feeling it's safe to say hell no.

Bottom line, a Democrat has to win at all cost if only for the supreme Court picks.

All the polls dome over the last few months indicate that Bernie wins by a larger margin. The last couple weeks of polls show Clintons lead diminishing. Is there not something to be said for that?
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I had a big thing responding to this that got eaten by the lock but basically: yes, there were a few (there always are) legitimate fuckups made that affected Bernie, yes there were things that could have been done better, and yes there are changes that need to be made. That said, yes Bernie didn't help himself with his rough start ignoring the potential of the South early on, yes he didn't help himself with the victim playing and cries of foul play from all aspects both real and imaginary in the last month when it became clear he couldn't win, yes he looks bad dragging this on, and yes, like caucuses, polls are irrelevant.

The same polls he's winning now said he was winning a lot of states against Hillary. Clearly that's not the case. The same polls said Romney was winning a lot of states against Obama. Clearly that was not the case.

More people showed up to his rallies. More people voted for her. That's always going to be the biggest takeaway. Show up to the rallies, and show up to the vote.
 
Otakumegane said:
Well yeah we have the data that he performs better in the general, but what does this data really do? Do the super-delegates all of a sudden vote to shift sides?
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The superdelegates disregard the polls because they realize he wouldn't be up on Trump if he was being attacked like Hillary is by the GOP and Sanders folks. People like to hand wave the commie stuff but you're bananas if you think a flurry of ads with Bernie praising Fidel Castro, the Sandinistas, wanting to raise taxes, etc, etc. wouldn't hurt him.
 
I'll just say what i already said in the locked thread: no amount of polling is going to change the reality that he is not going to be the nominee.
 
I think another aspect is that the Trump campaign is holding back on all the Clinton email benghazi shit until after she is set as the nominee, but they don't want to do it while Sanders is still running cause that would blow their load too soon and possibly help him out.
 
excelsiorlef said:
He's got skeletons trailing from California to Vermont that haven't even had as much as a single ray of light shone on them.
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Exactly. He hasn't been vetted on the national stage, whereas Hillary has been vetted for decades; everyone has an opinion on her and knows her baggage. Sanders' negatives would be driven up too under similar pressure, and I'd argue it would make him toxic. The USSR stuff alone...

At the end of the day national polling doesn't matter right now. Show me a path to 270 for Donald Trump. I haven't seen one.
 
It's also hard to ignore that he loses in every actual democratic metric. Open primaries, closed primaries, caucuses, popular.
 
I'd be curious to see him in the general just to see how bad the attacks got and how poorly he'd do once they got rolling. The few times he's been called out and asked for specifics or treated poorly in any way he ducks in his shell and tries to change the subject. It would be interesting to see the full extent of the characterization slaughter the GOP would use against him. I honestly think just his tax plan alone would be enough to destroy him if used in ads.

Bernard has been roaming the forests fighting slimes and you suddenly want to thrust him into battle with the final boss dragon. It's not going to be pretty.
 
Was going to respond to the OP of the last thread that he's desperately wrong if he actually thinks I as a Hillary supporter would not campaign for Sanders if he had won the nomination. Trump makes this the easiest General ever for me. I'd campaign for a shaved walrus against Trump.
 
Fine Ham Abounds said:
Was going to respond to the OP of the last thread that he's desperately wrong if he actually thinks I as a Hillary supporter would not campaign for Sanders if he had won the nomination. Trump makes this the easiest General ever for me. I'd campaign for a shaved walrus against Trump.
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Yup.

I think Bernie has run a dishonorable, cowardly campaign.. but I'd have my ass over in Florida working for him if he were the nominee. I'm not going to let my fee-fees override what must be a logical decision in November.

Bottom line: This vote is a vote for the judicial viability of progressivism for the next 25 years. Anyone claiming to support progressive causes while also being willing to allow the GOP to smother the movement via judicial action over the next few decades is full of malarkey. In order for Bernie or Hillary's vision to remain possible, it must be able to survive the inevitable court challenges that will arise with every legislative or executive victory. There's no tap-dancing around this reality of our system, and the #___OrBust folks know it.
 
catmincer said:
It doesn't matter though? She's going to be the nominee,more people voted for her.
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I dunno man, the Trumpers will surely be saying this when Trump wins to silence the progressives. Lets just say I am less than confident in the voting public that gave the world people like Bush and Nixon.
 
Ziltoidia 9 said:
Oh yeah, because this fall they are going to go so easy on Hillary...
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Republicans have been going hard on Hilary (and the Clintons) for 30 years, people have already formed their opinions on her through a barrage of attacks about her past already, Sanders hasn't had 1% of the scrutiny shes had and he has some pretty easy to find skeletons in his closet.
 
But really Hildawg has been coasting for awhile now. All Bernie is doing is making it harder for her to win the general instead of what everyone before did was trying to make it hard for her to win the nomination
 
kitschykitty said:
Republicans have been going hard on Hilary (and the Clintons) for 30 years, people have already formed their opinions on her through a barrage of attacks about her past already, Sanders hasn't had 1% of the scrutiny shes had and he has some pretty easy to find skeletons in his closet.
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Clinton's haven't been up against a national GOP campaign since 1996. Her winning senate in NY is to be expected. Its freaking NY.
 
Ziltoidia 9 said:
Clinton's haven't been up against a national GOP campaign since 1996. Her winning senate in NY is to be expected. Its freaking NY.
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And Bernie has never been up against one, you're just proving my point.

Also more recently have you been ignoring the GOP attacks on her for the past year? The right don't really run attack ads on Bernie but anti-Clinton ads have been running for a while in this election.

edit: because i'm sure there are anti-Bernie ads somewhere I'll clarify that it's nowhere even close to the scale of anti-Hilary ad campaigns
 
kitschykitty said:
And Bernie has never been up against one, you're just proving my point.

Also more recently have you been ignoring the GOP attacks on her for the past year? The right don't even run attack ads on Bernie but anti-Clinton ads have been running for a while in this election.
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Why should they waste the money, he was knocked out over a month ago, basically.
 
And I doubt these polls are gonna change. Or even matter.

No one really cares about Bernie anymore aside from his supporters. He lost.

Meanwhile Hillary has been attacked on various issues for a long time now.
 
Primethius said:
And I doubt these polls are gonna change. Or even matter.

No one really cares about Bernie anymore aside from his supporters. He lost.

Meanwhile Hillary has been attacked on various issues for a long time now.
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And the attacks are only going to intensify, and the reason I mentioned that the last time they were attacked during a national election was in 1996, when they barely had anything at all to grill them on. Now 20 years after that, they have all this built up stuff to send her way. The country is stupid, I fear they could get just enough to some how swing it. And to say that the general attacks on her hasn't worked, isn't accurate. Why else would her approval numbers and trustworthy numbers be so bad.
 
Ziltoidia 9 said:
Why should they waste the money, he was knocked out over a month ago, basically.
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Are we disagreeing about anything? It really seems like you're agreeing with me that he hasn't had the same amount of scrutiny and attacks shes had which would explain why she'd be polling worse than Sanders.
 
kitschykitty said:
Are we disagreeing about anything? It really seems like you're agreeing with me that he hasn't had the same amount of scrutiny and attacks shes had which would explain why she'd be polling worse than Sanders.
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I don't know if its a disagreement, what ever it is, I just feel that the ad onslaught is going to be really bad this fall for her. There has been a weird shift in the country this year, but I don't know if its exclusively for the GOP or if its in the Dem party also. I think Democrats in general are happy with Sanders or Clinton, I think in some exit polls it said 70% would be fine with either. But, lol, exit polls.

Regardless, I feel that when the shit hits the fan this fall, cooler head will prevail and we will elect the better person, regardless if it isnt the optimal person for Sanders supporters.

But again...this country re-elected bush 12 years ago.

I think my biggest fear is Trump getting some people to stay home while bringing in some of the 40% of the country that doesn't vote. It might be easier to do this in a popular vote situation, but I think in an electoral college system, he won't be able to pull it off.
 
Clinton has the minority vote at least. Trump has done a great job alienating Hispanic and non Christian voters. If Trump keeps trashing Hillary because of Bill's escapades 20 years ago, she's going to have the woman vote as well. If she wins white women (a segment Obama lost in 2012), its over for Trump.
 
Sanders has been realistically out of contention for the nomination for awhile (since March 15 IMO), and 13 days from now he'll be officially eliminated from the election when that last big group of states votes. So, like, there's not much you can do with his general election polls other than to dismiss them.

People point out every single day the reasons why looking at hypothetical general election polls of Sanders as compared to Clinton doesn't really make sense and wouldn't necessarily reflect the reality of the vote after a long general campaign, and yet people keep bringing it up again and again and again and again and again.
 
Republicans just need to play this in the commercial over and over again and Bernie would have no chance.

"Bernie Sander will raise your taxes by XYZ amount and make America uncompetitive to businesses."

His tax plan is too easy to attack with simple and effective messages like that.
 
HUELEN10 said:
Truth be told, we don't know until ti's over. Still many weeks to the DNC. Please don't just say who cares or it doesn't matter, at least read the points raised.
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The points raised don't amount to a hill of beans if Sanders hasn't been properly vetted. Remember when Obama obtained the lead from Clinton and suddenly Jeremiah Wright and birth certificates popped up all over the news? The only reason Obama got out of that was because of his speech on race which was one of his best speeches ever. Sanders is no where near the level of orator or as charismatic as Obama is.

That's how this works. If Sanders suddenly became the front runner and potential nominee, all of that dirty laundry would start pouring out. For Obama, most of that communist/secret muslim/anti-American/un-American stuff was innuendo, racism, and conspiracy theories. Sanders actually had those leanings as well as other questionable things that can turn off independent voters and liberals.
 
MadraptorMan said:
I think another aspect is that the Trump campaign is holding back on all the Clinton email benghazi shit until after she is set as the nominee, but they don't want to do it while Sanders is still running cause that would blow their load too soon and possibly help him out.
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They don't have an email load and they literally forced her to get interrogated by republican congressman and it failed
 
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