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[teiresias]

Early polls suggest Sanders having surprisingly great support don't count according to the numerous threads we had, but now that they indicate Clinton is on a streak it does? Make up your mind.

Who exactly are you talking to? Most that follow polling with any regular basis in Poligaf and in any real political conversations on the forum have always said to look at aggregates.

Regardless, that hasn't stopped every individual poll showing Sanders gaining some percentage, no matter how minuscule, being deemed worthy of having a thread created for it the past month or so. I don't see why anyone should complain when the shoe is on the other foot.

 

[gutter_trash]

Hillary will nab the nomination as soon as the Primairies move away from cityless 90% white small states.

As soon as it moves into more diverse States with big cities and moves South. It's game over for Bernie

Bernie can't compete in the South and the South West.

 

[brainchild]

It's not so much shitting on Bernie... It's just that the enthusiasm exhibited by youth and the internet doesn't translate in the polls... They just don't get out and vote like they should.

It doesn't show up in the polls... until it does. This poll does not exist in a vacuum. There have been many preceding it that HAVE showed the kind of enthusiasm you're referring to. Of course, the topic of conversation then was that the enthusiasm wouldn't translate into actual votes, which is probably true, but the point still stands. People can't seem to agree on whether Bernie has had some moderate level of success in the polls or not.

Bernie is accomplishing what he intended to. I'm sure he has always thought he might win, but I am also sure his goal was to influence the discussion just as much.

He's not a power-hungry guy. The fact that he's pushed Hilary to support a lot of the same issues more publicly is already a win.

These are pretty much my thoughts as well.

Early polls suggest Sanders having surprisingly great support don't count according to the numerous threads we had, but now that they indicate Clinton is on a streak it does? Make up your mind.

I find it quite fascinating, tbh.

 

[massoluk]

Please vote for Hillary, I want Bill Clinton back in the WH.

 

[Zultan]

Uh-huh. She either wins, or has a stroke.

Or an indictment.

 

[M0nochromatic]

I wonder how his campaign will change. I hope the polls continue to flucuate and we get some good discourse.

Still voting for him in the primary. #BerningUp

 

[Lord Fagan]

Or an indictment.

Oh, right. The smoking gun from her email server, that her team of lawyers missed on a line by line combing before turning it over to the feds. Something about an issue that came up while she was under Obama, in Benghazi, that while unable to completely derail his reelection almost three years ago, will assuredly bring her whole campaign to its knees.

But, seriously, she wins or has a stroke. That's about 99% of your plausible conclusions, right there, junior.

 

[brianmcdoogle]

Or an indictment.

Or all those murders she and Bill have committed over the years.

 

[User 463088]

Or an indictment.

You spelled Vince Foster, BENGHAZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZI!!!!one!!!11, e-mails and Whitewater wrong.

2016 is not 2008. Bernie Sanders is not President Obama, as the later was a Democrat and the former isn't. The movement around Obama simply will never materialize around Sanders. There is no Ted Kennedy going to come out and shake up the endorsement race. There is literally no evidence whatsoever that minorities are flocking to Sanders (which propelled President Obama's candidacy.)

Also, and this is my opinion, I don't see the conflict that we saw in 2008. For a lot of us, it was a damn hard choice to choose between Hillary and Obama. I don't see that this time.

Anyway, I agree that a lot of this movement is just because she's actually campaigning now. Her plan was, I think, to announce and ride out the summer. Sanders getting in the race shook things up, but I think her plan is still in place. She's making the rounds on the networks and late night shows. She'll also do well at the debates, as she usually outperformed Obama. (As evidenced by the 2012 debates, his debate performances are hit or miss. Hillary's on point when she can debate.) She's a policy wonk at heart, and you let her get into it, good luck. I do think Sanders will trip up a bit at the debates, only because he won't be able to talk about economic inequality for two and a half hours. When he has to start staking out a position on other issues, especially non-domestic ones, then it's going to get a bit shaky for some voters.

 

[Red]

Early polls suggest Sanders having surprisingly great support don't count according to the numerous threads we had, but now that they indicate Clinton is on a streak it does? Make up your mind.

Yup. Confirmation bias at its finest.

Looking forward to the debates. Will continue monthly donations toward his campaign.

 

[shinra-bansho]

If I'm reading this correctly, and I may not be, non-whites are a larger portion of the sample this time, with whom she still has a commanding lead.
In the last poll, despite a larger sample size of registered Democrats, the non-white portion was insufficient to generate crosstab information. This sample does provide that.

So the idea that Clinton's fortunes have waned and waxed so dramatically in the course of three weeks may just be a function of the practicalities of polling.

The only other notable thing I can see is that Biden may be peeling away male voters from Sanders. But it's all within margins of error.

Conclusion, it's fucking nothing/early polling still doesn't tell us much?

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Or all those murders she and Bill have committed over the years.

http://www.dcclothesline.com/2013/1...on-associate-says-killed-people-bill-hillary/

PS asks LN what kept him alive.

LN: “I’m a Green Beret. I’m trained … I’m skilled in staying alive. We have one rule: Kill back first. So if they send people to me, I’ll just kill them back first. I don’t ask questions. I deal with it.”

seems legit

quick, someone post that youtube copy-pasta of the navy seal

 

[Inuhanyou]

"People don't know who Bernie Sanders or what his positions are" the thread.

Its not as if the DNC's slimy tactics with the debates is any real help either.

Things are turning out how the Democrats want, Bernie really needs to go into double time somehow, even though he doesn't have as much money to spread his message.

 

[Einhander]

These polls don't really matter at this stage because the Democratic candidates haven't had their first debate yet. Hell, even then it's too early to tell. Give it two or three debates and then we can talk who is getting the bigger percentage of votes. Depending on what they say during the debates can hurt or help their ratings after some debates have passed by. That said, I'm getting so tired of this "socialism is evil and should never be implemented into our government!" bullshit. A lot of Americans have this arrogance when they criticize other types of government systems. I say that as an American myself.

 

[weekev]

Imagine if Sanders rallied and got in in the USA.and Corbyn got in in the UK. Socialism would be thriving and might stop being less thought of in the political world.

 

[wildfire]

Who exactly are you talking to? Most that follow polling with any regular basis in Poligaf and in any real political conversations on the forum have always said to look at aggregates.

You're talking about people who actually use the community thread. He's talking about the random people in off topic general who are in this thread and were definitely in the previous threads. I shouldn't need to say this but you're willingly being defensive when you specifically don't have to (never recalled seeing your avatar while decrying early polls).

 

[Africanus]

Imagine if Sanders rallied and got in in the USA.and Corbyn got in in the UK. Socialism would be thriving and might stop being less thought of in the political world.

All I see is a man who would be opposed at every step by both Republicans and some of the more centrist (relatively) democrats.

And he definitely would not be re-elected if he survives his term.

I say this as someone who rather enjoys him.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Bernie is accomplishing what he intended to. I'm sure he has always thought he might win, but I am also sure his goal was to influence the discussion just as much.

He's not a power-hungry guy. The fact that he's pushed Hilary to support a lot of the same issues more publicly is already a win.

No offense to Bernie because I appreciate what he is doing but Hillary was already moving to the left on many issues before Bernie's run even had any effect on the race.

 

[brainchild]

If I'm reading this correctly, and I may not be, non-whites are a larger portion of the sample this time, with whom she still has a commanding lead.
In the last poll, despite a larger sample size of registered Democrats, the non-white portion was insufficient to generate crosstab information. This sample does provide that.

So the idea that Clinton's fortunes have waned and waxed so dramatically in the course of three weeks may just be a function of the practicalities of polling.

The only other notable thing I can see is that Biden may be peeling away male voters from Sanders. But it's all within margins of error.

Conclusion, it's fucking nothing/early polling still doesn't tell us much?

A single poll never, EVER tells us much this early in the game.

No offense to Bernie because I appreciate what he is doing but Hillary was already moving to the left on many issues before Bernie's run even had any effect on the race.

This is besides the point. She still has room to be pushed further, which is a good thing.

 

[weekev]

All I see is a man who would be opposed at every step by both Republicans and some of the more centrist (relatively) democrats.

And he definitely would not be re-elected if he survives his term.

I say this as someone who rather enjoys him.

I think realistically, hes never gonna beat Hilary. A bigger budget and being closer to the centre will mean she resonates with more people and has the budget to push that point across.

I think Bernie would be great for America in the long term because he would shake things up, but I dont think its gonna happen.

 

[Elfforkusu]

If I'm reading this correctly, and I may not be, non-whites are a larger portion of the sample this time, with whom she still has a commanding lead.
In the last poll, despite a larger sample size of registered Democrats, the non-white portion was insufficient to generate crosstab information. This sample does provide that.

So the idea that Clinton's fortunes have waned and waxed so dramatically in the course of three weeks may just be a function of the practicalities of polling.

The only other notable thing I can see is that Biden may be peeling away male voters from Sanders. But it's all within margins of error.

Conclusion, it's fucking nothing/early polling still doesn't tell us much?

That's where I'm at.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

No offense to Bernie because I appreciate what he is doing but Hillary was already moving to the left on many issues before Bernie's run even had any effect on the race.

Perhaps. He's keeping it going that way.

 

[RE_Player]

Did people actually think Sanders was going to make it?

 

[ryseing]

Did people actually think Sanders was going to make it?

The people over at /r/Sandersforpresident did.

 

[watershed]

The truth is simple. Right now Bernie is leading in Iowa and New Hampshire where he has spent a lot of time and dem voters like to really get to know the candidates and their positions. Clinton is winning this national poll because she has higher name recognition and has a lot of legacy support among democrats. Also, Hillary's campaign is also just getting started whereas Bernie has been very active from day 1.

 

[Byakuya769]

I'll wait for the debates.

 

[steveovig]

Sanders seems really good to me, honestly, but I can't stand behind him for the primaries. Going against a guy like Trump, he'll get murdered for being a socialist. This has probably been said a million times but he will never get right leaning swing voters to vote for him, being a socialist. It stinks because he seems like a pretty genuine guy who wants to make a real change in Washington.

 

[Einhander]

Did people actually think Sanders was going to make it?

I don't know. There holds some weight to many people shying away from candidates with a legacy behind their last name. Jeb Bush being a shining example. Granted, the Clinton name doesn't represent a toxic history like the Bush name does, but people aren't exactly thrilled by her either. She lacks character and energy. If Bernie can up his game being fired up in the first debate, then he might be able to overtake Hillary in popularity. It's up to him. We know he has it in him to get passionate during his speeches.

 

[boiled goose]

and what happens when Bernie inevitably loses the primary? Are you gonna vote for Hillary or are you going to stay home?

Also where were you in 2014 for the mid-terms? You haven't voted in 4 years? What's up with that?

If people are not excited to vote perhaps you should look at the people running and their policies.

2014 was a landslide because dems were running as Republic lite.

 

[Baron Doggystyle von Woof]

Wasn't she leading Obama also for most of the time?

 

[B-Dubs]

The truth is simple. Right now Bernie is leading in Iowa and New Hampshire where he has spent a lot of time and dem voters like to really get to know the candidates and their positions. Clinton is winning this national poll because she has higher name recognition and has a lot of legacy support among democrats. Also, Hillary's campaign is also just getting started whereas Bernie has been very active from day 1.

Demographics and location also play a big role in those leads. Both are extremely white states, a lot of Hillary's support comes from the African-American community, and New Hampshire is right next to Vermont, if Sanders wasn't doing well there it would be deeply embarrassing. Unless he can manage to change the dynamic of the race, he'll win the first two races and lose everything else.

 

[Spider from Mars]

Wasn't she leading Obama also for most of the time?

Until Edwards dropped out.

Also, stop trying to make Bernie happen, it's not going to happen.

 

[Dude Abides]

If people are not excited to vote perhaps you should look at the people running and their policies.

2014 was a landslide because dems were running as Republic lite.

No, it was because it was a midterm and a Dem was in the White House.

 

[Eidan]

He brings nothing to the ticket.

I think the concept that the veep "brings something to the ticket" is antiquated. No one votes for the VP.

 

[gutter_trash]

Wasn't she leading Obama also for most of the time?

apples and oranges

Obama was the rising star and was a good campaigner

I don't feel that Sanders can do the same outside of small states that don't have cities

I think the concept that the veep "brings something to the ticket" is antiquated. No one votes for the VP.

I bad Veep can do more harm that a good Veep can do good.

best going with something boring for Veep than base catering nutters like Dan Quayle or Sarah Pailin.

I always disliked Gore's choice of Lieberman (not a true Liberal)

 

[Raxus]

Don't discount momentum either B-Dubs. Obama's grass roots campaign is what tripped Clinton's support last time. That said Clinton does have a money machine behind her with Sanders as her only (likely) opponent. I still give Clinton the edge just because of this. I am just glad to see the Democratic Candidacy shake up for the better.

 

[Goodstyle]

This isn't even her final form.

Dammit, beat me to it.

Everyone thought Sanders was the Goku of this story, when really he was the Krillin from the start. We admire his tenacity, but he will be effortlessly swept aside when things really get rolling.

 

[HylianTom]

Don't discount momentum either B-Dubs. Obama's grass roots campaign is what tripped Clinton's support last time. That said Clinton does have a money machine behind her with Sanders as her only (likely) opponent. I still give Clinton the edge just because of this. I am just glad to see the Democratic Candidacy shake up for the better.

I hope that as they start paying more attention, voters notice the difference in the quality of discourse on each respective side of the aisle. Hillary and Bernie have been rather genteel with each other, sticking mainly to the issues, occasionally scolding the GOP candidates for goofiness.. while the other side looks like the chimp enclosure at the zoo after Taco Tuesday. The contrast can help.

 

[NoblesseOblige]

The youth/internet is behind sanders, but they don't vote.

The vocal are behind Sanders. Most Hillary supports don't bother announcing their champion every 5 minutes.

 

[boiled goose]

No, it was because it was a midterm and a Dem was in the White House.

Wrong. Look at states were they got crushed and those where they didn't. Democrats were campaigning against the President despite having a recovering economy.

Look at actual turnout that year. Isn't it one of the lowest in recent history?

Minimum wage ballot initiatives even passed in some Republican states.

Dems need to rally their base.

 

[~Devil Trigger~]

in Iowa and NH?

 

[Diablos]

Lies. Only Mr. Sanders cares about the American people

Spoiler

and losing the general election.

 

[noshten]

Demographics and location also play a big role in those leads. Both are extremely white states, a lot of Hillary's support comes from the African-American community, and New Hampshire is right next to Vermont, if Sanders wasn't doing well there it would be deeply embarrassing. Unless he can manage to change the dynamic of the race, he'll win the first two races and lose everything else.

That's only because she is favorite nation wide. We shall see how South Carolina changes as more and more resources are focused there. If we don't see a shift in the demographic based on the results in Iowa, NH and more organizational muscle by the Bernie campaign in other states than I would agree with you.

Considering the racist undertone last time around it would just take a blow to her favorite status for her to lose support among the African American voters. After all its about electability and that's her main selling point. Pragmatic voters will quickly change their position.

The whole discourse around Bernie Sanders is how he is unelectable - that's the whole narrative, so it all rests with the organizational effort to win those early States, stay on message during the debates and drive a wedge between himself and Clinton on the issues. If he comes out unscathed by the debates where no doubt the electability question will be asked than we might see a shift in opinion on a National level. It's pretty much up to him and his campaign - I do think there is the right kind of spirit of inclusion and discourse on his part. It's all about getting the momentum going and from there winning over the people who currently doubt him.
To me it's a fools errant - the only way the Democrats lose this election is if there is lower voter turnout that allows the Republican Base to rally around whoever wins their nomination. With higher voter turnout Repulicans don't stand a chance.

 

[AuthenticM]

I would love a Hilary vs Fiorina general election. Two women.

 

[Raxus]

As nice as it would be to have a guaranteed woman in the White House. I really really really rea....

*some time later*

REALLY don't want Fiorina anywhere near a position of power.

 

[benicillin]

All I've ever wanted was to see Bernie make it to the democratic primary debates. After seeing what it's done to the Republicans, I'd be interested to see how his message resonates with the country at large.

Demographics and location also play a big role in those leads. Both are extremely white states, a lot of Hillary's support comes from the African-American community, and New Hampshire is right next to Vermont, if Sanders wasn't doing well there it would be deeply embarrassing. Unless he can manage to change the dynamic of the race, he'll win the first two races and lose everything else.

Haha, VT and NH might both be predominately white and are geographically related but the politics of the two states in general couldn't be more opposite. I'm surprised he's doing as well in NH as he is.

 

[Red Mage]

The white youth/internet is behind sanders, but they don't vote.

FTFY.

 

[markofhavoc]

Some potent fairy dust.

I took a marketing statistics class during the election and my teacher, who worked for homeland security running focus groups and giving reports on how people felt, expressed that any real statistician could call out the election like this, he did it the last election for the class too by putting his predictions in a envelope and opening it after election. When your presenting news, saying the polls indicates this person will win never sells, so it's always a head to head race

 

[ThankYouDaletech]

The only people I know in real life who support Hillary over Bernie are people who buy into her social media presence and assume Bernie doesn't care about any women's issues because he's male.

 

[Diablos]

I would love a Hilary vs Fiorina general election. Two women.

So would the GOP. The enthusiasm that some voters (particularly female voters) would feel on having a woman in the WH could then be split between two people.