Pre-November NPD Discussion - How many titles will sell over 100k?

S

sonycowboy

Member
... and what are they? Last year, there were 33 skus over 100k and this year I'm thinking it could be over 40.

1) Halo 2 (limited edition & regular - 2 skus)
2) GTA:SA
3) Metal Gear Solid: Snake Eater
4) Metroid Prime 2
5) Jak 3
6) R&C:UYA
7) Goldeneye (PS2)
8) Goldeneye (Xbox)
9) NFSU2 (PS2)
10) NFSU2 (Xbox)
11) THUG2 (PS2)
12) Mortal Kombat: Deception (PS2)
13) Pokemon Fire Red
14) Pokemon Leaf Green
15) Mario 64DS
16) Killzone
17) ATV: OF3
18) Ghost Recon 2 (Xbox)
19) Madden NFL 2005 (PS2)
20) Madden NFL 2005 (Xbox)
21) ESPN NFL2k5 (PS2)
22) ESPN NFL2k5 (Xbox)
23) NBA Live 2005 (PS2)
24) NBA 2k5 (PS2)
25) Call of Duty: Finest Hour (PS2)
26) Call of Duty: Finest Hour (Xbox)
27) WWE: Smackdown vs Raw
28) Dragonball Z: Budokai 3
29) The Incredibles (GBA)
30) The Incredibles (PS2)
31) The Sims: Urbz (PS2)
32) Sponge Bob Square Pants: The Movie (GBA)
33) Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door
34) Halo

...???
 
you might have fable on that list, it cleared 100,000 last month but then again, the buzz of the game has gone down too.
 
DopeyFish said:
you might have fable on that list, it cleared 100,000 last month but then again, the buzz of the game has gone down too.
Click to expand...

Well, November is certainly a huge month, but going from 600k in Sept to 100k in October, I think seals it for << 100k
 
I've got to be missing a good number of GBA games, and I forgot LOTR: The Third Age, but I feel that game has gotten lost in the shuffle. Still it's a big franchise by EA, so I don't know.

When ATV:OF 2 came out, it got 440k it's first month :O, but this one I'm also not sure can actually crack 100k.
 
"When ATV:OF 2 came out, it got 440k it's first month :O, but this one I'm also not sure can actually crack 100k."

It will. It's that game that no hardcore gamer really talks about but the casuals just eat it up. Sony created 3 different commercials for that game.
 
The interesting conversation is how the "big" guys affect the others. I mean, there is a finite amount of money and between the heavy hitters:

1) Halo 2
2) GTA:SA
3) MGS 3
4) Metriod Prime
5) Call of Duty: Finest Hour (PS2 & Xbox)
6) Smackdown
7) Need for Speed: Underground (PS2 & Xbox)

How much money can actually be left for the others? Somebody's going to have to pay for these guys success'. I'm thinking Sony's first party might be first in line (Jak 3, R&C:UYA, Killzone, ATV: OF3, Eye-Toy: Antigrav)
 
I think a lot of the budget titles will have a legitimate chance of hitting 100k....

Midway Arcade Treasures 2
PoP: SoT
KotOR
PGR2
Crimson Skies

(I'm not intentionally leaving out the Sony/Nintendo stuff, I just don't know their budget lines very well)


Some of the late/missed October releases can make a November comeback.

Outrun 2
Pikmin 2

Basically, I think Hliday shoppers are looking for a way to stretch that dollar.
 
EA said:
while Need for Speed Underground 2 is selling 60% faster than its predecessor in North America and three times as quickly in Europe.
Click to expand...

This is scary. Last year, NFSU sold 550k units across PS2, Xbox, GCN. a 60% increase would put it at almost 900k for the month combined. Of course, NFSU didn't really explode until December at retail.
 
jedimike said:
I think a lot of the budget titles will have a legitimate chance of hitting 100k....

Midway Arcade Treasures 2
PoP: SoT
KotOR
PGR2
Crimson Skies

(I'm not intentionally leaving out the Sony/Nintendo stuff, I just don't know their budget lines very well)


Some of the late/missed October releases can make a November comeback.

Outrun 2
Pikmin 2

Basically, I think Hliday shoppers are looking for a way to stretch that dollar.
Click to expand...


Anything can happen, but I would be absolutely shocked if ANY of those could hit 100k. 100k is not really all that easy to hit.
 
SantaCruZer said:
Maybe. The only gamecube title that is a lock over 100,000k is Metroid Prime 2.
Click to expand...
Dare I say NFS:U2 for GC also has a chance? That's stretching it, but LoTR might. The last in the series sold 71K last November.
 
AirBrian said:
Dare I say NFS:U2 for GC also has a chance?
Click to expand...

NONE.

First number LTD, second is Nov 03 sales.

PS2 NEED SPEED: UNDERGRND ELECTRONIC ARTS Nov-03 2,068,064 370,450
XBX NEED SPEED: UNDERGRND ELECTRONIC ARTS Nov-03 640,425 115,165
GCN NEED SPEED: UNDERGRND ELECTRONIC ARTS Nov-03 282,695 41,176
 
Well, I think for the amount of people that are buying new consoles this season, budget titles could have a good showing. No garauntee that they'll crack 100k, but it's definitely a possibility.
 
fallout said:
Well, I think for the amount of people that are buying new consoles this season, budget titles could have a good showing. No garauntee that they'll crack 100k, but it's definitely a possibility.
Click to expand...

Historically, that's not true. Certainly people buy budget titles, but there are literally hundreds of options and people have such a choice that the odds of enough factors coming together to make a handful of them jump over 100k is very unlikely

(minus some obvious choices like Halo or previous GTA's)
 
sonycowboy said:
Historically, that's not true. Certainly people buy budget titles, but there are literally hundreds of options and people have such a choice that the odds of enough factors coming together to make a handful of them jump over 100k is very unlikely

(minus some obvious choices like Halo or previous GTA's)
Click to expand...
Ah, true true. Guess I'm just speaking from my own shopping plans, heh.
 
sonycowboy said:
fixed

and I'll go on record saying it'll be lucky to reach a million worldwide :p
Click to expand...

are you being sarcastic? just yesterday it was announced as having sold 1.2 million units worldwide.
 
sonycowboy said:
fixed

and I'll go on record saying it'll be lucky to reach a million worldwide :p
Click to expand...

Interesting, because Microsoft went on record yesterday that it already had:

“Fable,” the ground-breaking Xbox role-playing adventure game from Lionhead Studios and Microsoft Game Studios has reached new heights, racking sales of more than one million units worldwide in only two months since its availability at retail.
Click to expand...

http://www.majornelson.com/blog/2004/12/halo-2-passes-5m-milestone.html
 
Flatbread said:
are you being sarcastic? just yesterday it was announced as having sold 1.2 million units worldwide.
Click to expand...

:lol What I really meant was there is no way in the world Halo 2 passes 5 million :p

Obviously, both you and Ghaelon missed my sarcasm. It was more a fact of, if I'm wrong about Fable hitting 100k in November, I'll probably get continued crap for saying that Fable "would be lucky to crack 200k in it's first month".
 
sonycowboy said:
:lol What I really meant was there is no way in the world Halo 2 passes 5 million :p

Obviously, both you and Ghaelon missed my sarcasm. It was more a fact of, if I'm wrong about Fable hitting 100k in November, I'll probably get continued crap for saying that Fable "would be lucky to crack 200k in it's first month".
Click to expand...

Okay, I get the reference now - I'll give you the benefit of the doubt because you're usually on top of sales data (but not forecasts!)
 
sonycowboy said:
:lol What I really meant was there is no way in the world Halo 2 passes 5 million :p

Obviously, both you and Ghaelon missed my sarcasm. It was more a fact of, if I'm wrong about Fable hitting 100k in November, I'll probably get continued crap for saying that Fable "would be lucky to crack 200k in it's first month".
Click to expand...


I thought you might be, thats why I said "your being sarcastic"

Its hard to get sarcasm on the boards sometimes,
 
What are people seeing in NFSU2?

It's the epitome of the 'game factory' approach of EA. Abysmal, shitty game with crap graphics...it takes a special kind of no-talent to make the Xbox looks like a PSONE.
 
COCKLES said:
What are people seeing in NFSU2?

It's the epitome of the 'game factory' approach of EA. Abysmal, shitty game with crap graphics...it takes a special kind of no-talent to make the Xbox looks like a PSONE.
Click to expand...

EA + Causal gamers = teh win
 
COCKLES said:
What are people seeing in NFSU2?

It's the epitome of the 'game factory' approach of EA. Abysmal, shitty game with crap graphics...it takes a special kind of no-talent to make the Xbox looks like a PSONE.
Click to expand...
Black Box is actually pretty talented. The problem is that after the first one sold like hotcakes, EA wanted to get this one out within a year. If they had another year to polish the sizable open city, the graphics would be much, much better.
 
I can't see Halo passing 100k with Halo 2 out really.

Smash Bros Melee has a good chance in the run up to Xmas, as does Mario Power Tennis.

I think Halo 2 will be around 2.5 million, and GTA3 on about 1.2m, with MGS3 on 700k and Metroid Prime on 500k. NFSU2 on PS2 at 350k.
 
sonycowboy said:
The interesting conversation is how the "big" guys affect the others. I mean, there is a finite amount of money and between the heavy hitters:

1) Halo 2
2) GTA:SA
3) MGS 3
4) Metriod Prime
5) Call of Duty: Finest Hour (PS2 & Xbox)
6) Smackdown
7) Need for Speed: Underground (PS2 & Xbox)

How much money can actually be left for the others? Somebody's going to have to pay for these guys success'. I'm thinking Sony's first party might be first in line (Jak 3, R&C:UYA, Killzone, ATV: OF3, Eye-Toy: Antigrav)
Click to expand...

Doubtful. The only one of those Sony first-party games that I think might suffer is EyeToy: AntiGrav, primarily because they don't have a software-only package (it's only sold with the camera).

Sony's been advertising the heck out of Jak 3, Ratchet & Clank 3: Up Your Arsenal, and Killzone, and they'll all sell pretty well considering the strong competition. I'm predicting that at least two of those games (perhaps even all three) will outsell WWE Smackdown vs. Raw and possibly even Metroid Prime 2: Echoes (/me ducks for cover).

GoldenEye: Rogue Agent will probably do OK, maybe reaching 200,000 on all three platforms, but it won't be a runaway success. The Lord of the Rings: The Third Age might not be a huge hit either, particularly since there's no direct movie tie-in like EA's earlier LotR games. On the other hand, The Urbz: Sims in the City will probably sell better than a lot of people expect.

Prince of Persia: Warrior Within doesn't stand a chance of breaking 100,000 for November, since it came out right at the end. I think it should do pretty well for itself in December, though.

The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie (er, the video game based on the movie) could rack up decent sales on all the console systems, not just GBA.
 
Broshnat said:
I can't see Halo passing 100k with Halo 2 out really.

Smash Bros Melee has a good chance in the run up to Xmas, as does Mario Power Tennis.

I think Halo 2 will be around 2.5 million, and GTA3 on about 1.2m, with MGS3 on 700k and Metroid Prime on 500k. NFSU2 on PS2 at 350k.
Click to expand...

halo 2 did 2.2m on day 1
 
GhaleonEB said:
halo 2 did 2.2m on day 1
Click to expand...


According to Microsoft, NOT NPD.
I'm gonna laugh very hard!

NPD numbers are only usually about 90% of actual North American numbers anyway. Add some bullish Microsoft PR and I think 2.5m for November according to NPD is being quite generous.

And we need to start getting bundle numbers from somwhere, since Mario Sunshine has done about 600k in the bundle, Metroid Prime bundle would have done a few hundred k, Mario Kart one will do half a million easily. These numbers should be taken into account...
 
Broshnat said:
NPD numbers are only usually about 90% of actual North American numbers anyway. Add some bullish Microsoft PR and I think 2.5m for November according to NPD is being quite generous.
Click to expand...

I think Halo 2 will be at around 2.9 in the Nov. NPD.
 
COCKLES said:
What are people seeing in NFSU2?

It's the epitome of the 'game factory' approach of EA. Abysmal, shitty game with crap graphics...it takes a special kind of no-talent to make the Xbox looks like a PSONE.
Click to expand...

Hmm, a 40+ hour racer with great graphics, great upgradeable cars, and great gameplay? I play the PC version, so I can't vouch for the xbox version, but the graphics are quite nice. Do you bitch about the way GTA looks as well?
 
Grubdog said:
Mario Kart: Double Dash? Are the sales from the bundle going to be included?
Click to expand...

Nope. It's packed inside the system box, so that will only be one sku for the bundle, so it won't be reported as MK:DD sales. Although, if we're really nice and really lucky, when the hardware numbers are leaked, maybe they'll give us the breakdown of hardware sales as NPD reports all hardware skus seperately.
 
Broshnat said:
According to Microsoft, NOT NPD.
I'm gonna laugh very hard!

NPD numbers are only usually about 90% of actual North American numbers anyway. Add some bullish Microsoft PR and I think 2.5m for November according to NPD is being quite generous.

And we need to start getting bundle numbers from somwhere, since Mario Sunshine has done about 600k in the bundle, Metroid Prime bundle would have done a few hundred k, Mario Kart one will do half a million easily. These numbers should be taken into account...
Click to expand...


Good point. And let's add the JSRF/SegaGT sales while we're at it. Should really upset the Nbots when the Sega charts have Xbox with the only million sellers. Of course, Clone Wars by LucasArts would be a million + seller and Tetris will be one of the top selling games this gen.
 
Broshnat said:
According to Microsoft, NOT NPD.
I'm gonna laugh very hard!

NPD numbers are only usually about 90% of actual North American numbers anyway. Add some bullish Microsoft PR and I think 2.5m for November according to NPD is being quite generous.

And we need to start getting bundle numbers from somwhere, since Mario Sunshine has done about 600k in the bundle, Metroid Prime bundle would have done a few hundred k, Mario Kart one will do half a million easily. These numbers should be taken into account...
Click to expand...

It's the only data available right now. If it turns out that Halo 2 did less, or even slightly more, than 2.38m for all of November then I'll be the first to chuck egg at MS's face.

But no one seems to question when, say, Nintendo boasts that they sold over 500k DS units in Japan in four days. In both cases we'll have independant numbers shortly after, but in the meantime that's the only data around.
 
GhaleonEB said:
It's the only data available right now. If it turns out that Halo 2 did less, or even slightly more, than 2.38m for all of November then I'll be the first to chuck egg at MS's face.

But no one seems to question when, say, Nintendo boasts that they sold over 500k DS units in Japan in four days. In both cases we'll have independant numbers shortly after, but in the meantime that's the only data around.
Click to expand...

I think alot of people are questioning Nintendo's numbers given that Media Create reported numbers of 350k for the same period.
 
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