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Prediction: Microsoft will become third party by the end of next gen.

RCU005

Member
While the deal for Activition is still not closed yet, it’s extremely likely it will. Microsoft now owns more than half of the gaming industry (something many people predicted when they announced they would enter the gaming industry with the Xbox).

Microsoft doesn’t know how to compete, they only know hot to buy and remove the competition. However, that’s what’s going to affect them in the not-so-long-term.

They claim that they want all of the industry to have content for GamePass (although it’s was clear that they only wanted to fuck up the competition), but GamePass is a service that is going to be very hard to maintain profitable.

Just look at streaming services. Disney+ is bleeding money, Netflix keeps raising prices, HBO Max had to combine with Doscovery, other smaller services are irrelevant.

Video games streaming is on another level of complexity. They are not just a file that you upload to the servers. Games need to be constantly updated, add content, etc and everything needs resources. A movie just needs a license.

Then, the most important part: Comsumers!

Why do people like Game Pass? They say the games are practically free. Well, many users got their subscription for $1 so I guess that part is true. The normal price is $150 a year, I believe, which is just the cost of 2 games!

However, that won’t last long, specially now that Microsoft is in a “monopoly” position for now. They will start raising prices, let’s just see how fast and how soon.

The other important thing: Content!
Well, Microsoft now owns a shitload of studios, but is that enough? They have proven time and time again that they have a huge management problem when ot comes to their studios since before Xbox One. Will they be able to deliver great content from all (most) of them?

Another issue is their Market share. They removed Starfield from PlayStation, which is to be expected. Will the game sell enough to be successful for GamePass? How much will it sell physically/digitally vs GamePass?

Games like Call of Duty will probably remain on PlayStation, and maybe others too, but that only means that they sell more on the competition. In order for Microsoft to be successful with GamePass, they need to increase their Market Share ASAP and by a lot!

This is where I think they’ll fail. They don’t have the patience, otherwise, they would’ve used the 70 billion to build studios, not buying them. They are like how DC and WB wanted to have Marvel’s success from the first movie, and of course they crashed and burned.

I believe they will add GamePass everywhere, Smart TVs, Mobile, etc. that could help them, but they still need reasons for people to use it. There’s a reason why Mario Mart sells 50 million, or Spider Man game sold more then 20 million. People want to play those games, and they buy the platform they are in to play them.

Do you believe that Microsoft could sell even half of what Call of Duty is selling if they make it exclusive right now and put it just on GamePass and Xbox?

If Microsoft don’t increase consumers, will publishers and developers want their game on GamePass? Will Microsoft be able to pay them huge amounts of money every time just for the sake of it? They have a lot of money, but it’s still a business.

In that regard, the moment they add GamePass to a PlayStation or Nintendo console, they effectively became third party. However, I still believe they could become a full third party by next gen.

If Microsoft had sold 100 million + consoles like the PS4 or Switch is doing, then this would be another story entirely.

TL : DR: Microsoft will become third party because they won’t be able to reach enough consumers to make GamePass as successful as they want, therefore having to either put it on PlayStation and Nintendo consoles, or become full third party. Xbox will not explode next gen to become as big as PlayStation or Nintendo and will begin to have issues with developers and publishers to put content on GamePass.
 
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Damigos

Member
I dislike monopolys, therefore i dislike MS. It started with windows, then office, now to gaming with gamepass and buying out everything.
If the deal goes through it opens the gates for even more buyouts and the last winner is the one with the most money.
This will have extreme consequences to us as the price of games will rise and the quality will fall. Like in every monopoly.
I cant understand people that are happy regarding this, but i guess not everyone thinks the same
 
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Dream-Knife

Banned
I dislike monopolys, therefore i dislike MS. It started with windows, then office, now to gaming with gamepass and buying out everything.
If the deal goes through it opens the gates for even more buyouts and the last winner is the one with the most money.
This will have extreme consequences to us as the price of games will rise and the quality will fall. Like in every monopoly.
I cant understand people that are happy regarding this, but i gurss not everyone thinks the same
AAA gaming is largely trash anymore anyway.

Blame consumers for buying the same games every year.
 

HeisenbergFX4

Gold Member
John Candy No GIF by Laff
 

Robb

Gold Member
I doubt it.

Who knows, maybe they’ll manage to sell >100M NextBox systems. Having CoD will definitely be a huge advantage going in to the next generation.

If they didn’t stop with consoles after Xbox One when things were looking grim, I doubt they’d stop when they have just made huge acquisitions and things are looking brighter then ever for the brand.
 
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Killer8

Gold Member
We have been hearing this since 2001

It also very nearly happened after the Xbox One. Say what you want about Phil in the last few years, under his stewardship the Xbox brand went from being on the verge of death to aggressively competitive.

It would take another major blunder on the level of the Xbox One again to even think about them going third party. Pending any major fuck ups, it's now really just up to the bean counters at MS to ensure things like Game Pass keep reliably making them money.
 

Dis

Member
I dont want my games to be digital only and locked behind a subscription only service that they control the price over and me ending up with a streaming box a la google stadia.

This by the corporation who lost the gaming competition and proceeds to cheat/buy everything.

Thats just disgusting.
 

DryvBy

Member
I dislike monopolys, therefore i dislike MS. It started with windows, then office, now to gaming with gamepass and buying out everything.
If the deal goes through it opens the gates for even more buyouts and the last winner is the one with the most money.
This will have extreme consequences to us as the price of games will rise and the quality will fall. Like in every monopoly.
I cant understand people that are happy regarding this, but i gurss not everyone thinks the same
Very underperforming individuals in school, that's who. They think a corporation is their buddy.
 

Loxus

Member
Seems legit.
Microsoft has plans to release COD on Nintendo.

After acquiring EA, Take-Two and a few more developers/publishers and making those games not release on PlayStation, Microsoft would become the market leader and force PlayStation out of the console market due to Sony only selling 6 million PS6s at the end of the gen.
 
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Fabieter

Member
I dislike monopolys, therefore i dislike MS. It started with windows, then office, now to gaming with gamepass and buying out everything.
If the deal goes through it opens the gates for even more buyouts and the last winner is the one with the most money.
This will have extreme consequences to us as the price of games will rise and the quality will fall. Like in every monopoly.
I cant understand people that are happy regarding this, but i gurss not everyone thinks the same

People think everything will stay the same but they will get a few more games on gamepass. They will learn it the hard way.
 

Red5

Member
Not even if Sony and Nintendo agree to allow Gamepass and Xcloud on their platforms, because MS pulls much more profit from funneling customers into their ecosystem through an Xbox console rather than through Sony or Nintendo where they have to pay royalties.
 

aries_71

Junior Member
Very original take from the OP. Never heard it before in the last 20 years. We‘ll keep hoping it happens in the future so our console acquisition will be easier, devoid of any buyer‘s remorse.
 

Neo_game

Member
It is possible they do not seem comitted to Xbox IMO. Obviously they do not have big market share with Xbox. But since Microsoft has so much cash anyways and the CEO is ok with it. They could buy all these studios and then lock their game to only Xbox and watch gamers come to them if they wanted :devilish:
 

shamoomoo

Member
We have been hearing this since 2001
If I recall correctly, part of the transcript about the case that caused Microsoft to purchase Activision had little to do with them growing in the console space to be more competitive like Netflix and similar streaming/content services.


Also, Microsoft had enough time and money to grow Xbox as a brand.
 

Dane

Member
Michael Patcher finally getting right on a prediction, the largest gaming acquisition, yet there are many people in this forum who tought it was dead because of CMA back in April.

At this rate, whatever they said, i'd take the opposite.
 
I wonder if that would potentially be more profitable in the long run for MS? I mean, does it really matter if an XBOX console exists if the games are available everywhere else? It's already like that for PC gamers. Same applies if the roles were reversed and Sony bought ABK and stopped making consoles. Who cares about the console if the games are eventually everywhere to play?

Here's a thought. XBOX stops making consoles and goes for a Steamdeck device, one with storage, one purely streaming 😱. I'd be interested in that. I have no use for a second current gen console but I'd be open for more steamdeck style devices.
 
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That's one smoking hot take right there!

Xbox cant compete? They launched the xbox brand into thin air, turned that into the smash hit 360. This gen has been pure recovery for the worst console release since dreamcast(xbox1/kinect).

As usual ppl conflate not being first place with not be being successful.

Becoming 3rd party is a step backwards. You dont spend 70B and become an unholy monopoly to then not leverage your position.

Gamepass is irrelevant longterm. It's not core to their overall identity and if it's bad they can drop it. It's great value and PR right now and is frankly thier saving grace this gen. It could easily act as a band aaid this gen while they build IP for the next gen (which finally seems to be happening? 2024 good?). If not they can keep sinking money into it until it works.

Ppl are way too concerned about winning. Fact is, MS can afford to lose 100 X what Sony and Nintendo can, that matters. Sony built thier brand off 10/10 sp games and are now banking hard on mtx MP games. I'd argue that's a much bigger gamble than gamepass, as Playstations brand is what carries them and losing that would be a huge blow. What will MS lose? Money? Like they give a fuck. Let's not be so short sighted.
 

Stuart360

Member
Well imo there is only 2 more full generations left anyway before one, or all of them, drop hardware and go full service route. So its not just MS, it will be Sony too. Nintendo live in their own little bubble, and do what they want, so you can never say for certain with them.

I said this in another thread that 2 more full generations from now we are talking another 20 years or so. Can you honestly imagine consoles being around 20 yeas from now?, and by consoles i mean like Playstation and Xbox, multi millions selling hardware. There may still be small consoles by thrid party companies, meant to only sell a small amount. I just can imagine how fast and widespread internet will be 20 years from now, and with consumers ALWAYS ending up going the quick and easy route, i just cant imagine consoles will make sense when tens of millions of gamers will be more than happy to stream everything.

Imo PC is the only hardware that will survive long term, mainly because PC's obviously do a hell of a lot more than just gaming, and obviously the likes of Intel, AMD,, and Nvidia wont be pushing for a streaming only future when there main business is PC hardware.
And obviously no one 'owns' PC like Sony and MS, so what PC users want is what they get.
 

Clear

CliffyB's Cock Holster
Gamepass is irrelevant longterm. It's not core to their overall identity and if it's bad they can drop it. It's great value and PR right now and is frankly thier saving grace this gen. It could easily act as a band aaid this gen while they build IP for the next gen (which finally seems to be happening? 2024 good?). If not they can keep sinking money into it until it works.

This is entirely untrue. GamePass which is basically just the front-facing brand for XCloud, which in turn is the consumer monetization arm of Azure, is MS' future.

They are buying IP at extreme cost, purely to create the content pipeline needed for all the above to succeed.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
If they didn't get ABK, I would subscribe to this.

With, nah. They're cornering the market and wanting to funnel people into their Netflix of Gaming™

You will need a vehicle to for that. Once the vehicles are irrelevant, you stand on top with the cloud only infrastructure. Owning most of the once 3rd party IPs along the way.

This is entirely untrue. GamePass which is basically just the front-facing brand for XCloud, which in turn is the consumer monetization arm of Azure, is MS' future.

They are buying IP at extreme cost, purely to create the content pipeline needed for all the above to succeed.
Yep.
 
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