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[LakeOf9]

Is it cause the Japanese love handhelds? Why has Nintendo been so dominant in Japan whereas Sony has faulted massively in their homeland?

By the way, I can see Switch 2 being a massive success. Not as big as the Switch but still a 100 Million plus seller.

Three primary reasons:

• Japan loves portables, and portables fit better into the Japanese lifestyle than stationary consoles. This obviously helps Nintendo, who are the king of the portable.
• Nintendo has constantly worked at securing games that are appealing in Japan for their systems. This has not only meant developing in house IPs for domestic appeal like Pokemon or Animal Crossing or Splatoon, but they have also been very aggressive in going after big and popular third party IPs in Japan - Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest are both the most famous examples, but they also insistently went after smaller, more mid tier stuff (in terms of Japanese sales specifically) such as Persona, Yakuza, Final Fantasy, Atelier, Dark Souls, shit like that. This means the sum total of Nintendo's lineup is always more appealing to Japan than Sony's, who have made no efforts to compensate for the loss of exclusivity on third party titles, nor developed any Japan appealing properties of their own (in fact, they have systematically shut down projects and developers that could have done that).
• Sony has de-emphasized Japan in its marketing and branding strategy severely – whether this reflects in their pricing strategy, adherence to local customs/practices, the aforementioned game output, or even the actual design of the console (The original Xbox being big and bulky was a key reason as to why it failed in Japan, which prefers smaller machines, even for home consoles – guess what Sony's design for their consoles have been), they at best ignore the Japanese market, and at worst actively antagonize it (such as the repeated price increases there). Nintendo is almost the opposite, where they favour Japan almost more than the entire rest of the world, so obviously that, combined with all the other points, leads to them doing strongly there.

 

[LakeOf9]

I'm sure he would have made this thread himself, were he still allowed to.

Wait, what did I miss?

 

[Woopah]

The switch was 50-70 cheaper than the PS4 in 2017 at 299 with deals around 279. While the PS4 was 349-399. Not to mention the switch only being on the market less than a year and these prices were with the PS4 price cuts.

The Switch launched at 299, at which point the PS4 and Xbox One were also 299. There were several points in 2017/2018 when PS4/Xbox One were cheaper than Switch. So it didn't have a price advantage over other consoles.

If it's success was driven by being a cheap handheld, the Lite would be the most popular instead of the least popular.

Is it cause the Japanese love handhelds? Why has Nintendo been so dominant in Japan whereas Sony has faulted massively in their homeland?

By the way, I can see Switch 2 being a massive success. Not as big as the Switch but still a 100 Million plus seller.

Its mainly software. Almost all the biggest franchises in Japan are published by Nintendo which obviously gives them a big advantage..

PS1 was was successful because lots of the biggest exclusives moved from Nintendo to Sony. That can't happen when the markets biggest games are first party.

 

[GigaBowser]

By 2030 Sony will have had more than 100 million PS5 and PS6 units combined and both significantly more powerful than the Switch 2. Sony will remain the prime partner for third party publishers.

its all true my friends playstation will gets most AAA supports buuuuut switch 2 will gets MANY AAA i am known for my predictions confirmed

 

[blacktout]

Wait, what did I miss?

His thread creation privileges were revoked:

Post in thread 'Back with more Bad Switch 2 news.'

May 14, 2025

Oh look they actually closed it! Amazing job! That's sure to stop him from making anymore of them!

In addition to closing that thread, we have also revoked that users ability to make new threads going forward.

• Palliasso

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[LakeOf9]

His thread creation privileges were revoked:

Post in thread 'Back with more Bad Switch 2 news.'

May 14, 2025

Oh look they actually closed it! Amazing job! That's sure to stop him from making anymore of them!

In addition to closing that thread, we have also revoked that users ability to make new threads going forward.

• Palliasso

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[yurinka]

Concord also broke all time records for the most rapid descent from hyped release to graveyard, proving even peak performance can't guarantee live-service success.

Hyped release? The hype generated by knowing they were mostly ex-Bungie and top tier devs from top shooters and the burger teaser died when we saw the woke cast of the game.

 

[coachmcguirk91]

The article states the PS5 won't be at 100mil units by 2029? Are they on crack? PS5 Will reach 100mil easily next year, probably a week after GTA 6 releases. The PS5 console will be selling for the next 5 years, at least, even after the PS6 comes out. The cross-gen period is going to be crazy long

 

[Woopah]

The article states the PS5 won't be at 100mil units by 2029? Are they on crack? PS5 Will reach 100mil easily next year, probably a week after GTA 6 releases. The PS5 console will be selling for the next 5 years, at least, even after the PS6 comes out. The cross-gen period is going to be crazy long

They mean PS6 won't be at 100 million.

 

[Neofire]

The Switch Lite (the only model that is $200) sold 25.5 million units. That's under a fifth of all Switch systems sold.

Meaning 125 million units were sold at $300 or above.

So now 25 million units is nothing? Even if I did believe the vgchartz numbers(because Nintendo has yet to give a break down of exactly which skus sold what). The PS4 slim sold much less then that and according Sony the base PS4 was 87% of the total sales.

The switch clearly had a pricing advantage and I know plenty of parents who bought it for that reason(in addition to others).

 

[coachmcguirk91]

They mean PS6 won't be at 100 million.

Fair, but who gives a shit about the PS6 when every 3rd party game will be available on PS5? The Playstation ecosystem will be huge by then

Also, the gamers that play on the Nintendo Switch are very different than the majority of gamers on PC, Xbox, and Playstation. They enjoy family friendly games, which is the majority of Nintendo's catalogue. That may change a bit this generation, but the majority of hardcore console players have already bought a PS5 or Xbox. They are not going to trade them in for an underpowered Switch 2. The whole premise is asinine

 

[LakeOf9]

So now 25 million units is nothing?

I did not say that. I said it is the lowest portion of Switch sales, and that the bulk of Switch sales - more than PS4's total lifetime sales, in fact - came from the $199 model, which was explicitly in response to your claim that the Switch sold 150 million off of a $199 price point.

Even if I did believe the vgchartz numbers(because Nintendo has yet to give a break down of exactly which skus sold what). The PS4 slim sold much less then that and according Sony the base PS4 was 87% of the total sales.

The switch clearly had a pricing advantage and I know plenty of parents who bought it for that reason(in addition to others).

Wrong again, Nintendo gave the breakdown themselves (and do every quarter).

Page 27, in case you actually are interested in verifying the breakdown for yourself.

So your claim is - again - incorrect. Numbers disprove it.

 

[lh032]

Sounds Bs to me

 

[fersnake]

Patcher is that you?

 

[Syphon Filter]

Its 4.5 years.

They overestimated the 360 and PS3, but there weren't wrong about 360 beating Wii in the US.

360 outsold wii in the u.s?

 

[Woopah]

So now 25 million units is nothing? Even if I did believe the vgchartz numbers(because Nintendo has yet to give a break down of exactly which skus sold what). The PS4 slim sold much less then that and according Sony the base PS4 was 87% of the total sales.

The switch clearly had a pricing advantage and I know plenty of parents who bought it for that reason(in addition to others).

Could you share the source for this? Was it Sony or are you thinking of the US stat we got from Circana?

 

[SHAKEZ]

I believe japanese developers will certainly favor it. The rest? Not really.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

The general expectation I have seen is not that the Switch 2 will sell as much as the Switch, but that it will sell ~100 million units. Which I thin is reasonable (and still represents a 33% contraction in user base)

I think it'll do 125-130 million lifetime, but I base that on the percentage drop from NES to SNES, which was ~ 20%.

And if anything, Switch 2 will likely closely mirror SNES, in terms of being a refinement over the previous iteration. Because similar to the NES, the Switch did in fact break open a stagnant part of the gaming market with a well-conceived effort that felt refreshing.

I don't agree with the analysts that Switch 2 will hit 100 million by 2029 though; maybe closer to 75-80 million. So, they'll likely hit what PS5 is at right now, but beat it by 1 year, and I'd expect a 7.5-8 year cycle for Switch 2 similar to the original.

But also, hopefully, there's a Switch 2 Pro alongside a Switch 2 Lite midway through, which would be around Summer 2029, incidentally.

 

[Woopah]

Fair, but who gives a shit about the PS6 when every 3rd party game will be available on PS5? The Playstation ecosystem will be huge by then

Also, the gamers that play on the Nintendo Switch are very different than the majority of gamers on PC, Xbox, and Playstation. They enjoy family friendly games, which is the majority of Nintendo's catalogue. That may change a bit this generation, but the majority of hardcore console players have already bought a PS5 or Xbox. They are not going to trade them in for an underpowered Switch 2. The whole premise is asinine

There's large crossover between Switch owners and PS owners, so the gamers aren't that different.

But yes, looking purely at the PS6 userbase vs. Switch 2 userbase is a flawed approach.

360 outsold wii in the u.s?

Yes, final results were:

360: 42.7 million
Wii: 41.7 million

 

[Neofire]

I did not say that. I said it is the lowest portion of Switch sales, and that the bulk of Switch sales - more than PS4's total lifetime sales, in fact - came from the $199 model, which was explicitly in response to your claim that the Switch sold 150 million off of a $199 price point.


Wrong again, Nintendo gave the breakdown themselves (and do every quarter).

Page 27, in case you actually are interested in verifying the breakdown for yourself.

So your claim is - again - incorrect. Numbers disprove it.

That breakdown does not state that lite units only sold 25 million units. Also please give me this source were Sony has stated that the bulk of the PS4 sales were from the slim because I've yet to find it.

And I never said what all of the switch's sales came from 199 price point. I said that it was one of the main reasons it was able to reach the 155 million units sold. The same way the PS4 slim contributed to its total sales but it was nowhere near the largest percentage out of the base and pro model.

 

[Woopah]

That breakdown does not state that lite units only sold 25 million units. Also please give me this source were Sony has stated that the bulk of the PS4 sales were from the slim because I've yet to find it.

And I never said what all of the switch's sales came from 199 price point. I said that it was one of the main reasons it was able to reach the 155 million units sold. The same way the PS4 slim contributed to its total sales but it was nowhere near the largest percentage out of the base and pro model.

1. That's exactly what the breakdown states
2. They are not saying Slim is the bulk of PS4 sales. They are saying that you can remove the Lite numbers from the Switch total and it's still higher than the PS4.

 

[mayham2199]

It will depend entirely on the game. Some will lead on Playstation, some on PC and some on Switch.

Exactly. It's a different audience.

 

[LakeOf9]

That breakdown does not state that lite units only sold 25 million units.

It does. I have highlighted it for you.

Also please give me this source were Sony has stated that the bulk of the PS4 sales were from the slim because I've yet to find it.

?

I never said this? Did you get mixed up?

And I never said what all of the switch's sales came from 199 price point. I said that it was one of the main reasons it was able to reach the 155 million units sold.

Man you gotta stop saying stuff that is so easily disproven, because this is getting old now.

This is, in fact, what you said:

It sold 152 units because it was a 300 dollar headheld(which now you can get it for dirt cheap these days). I could say the same that people forgot that the original switch is 200-250 cheaper than any other system(even more if you compare it to pc handhelds). People aren't buying a Nintendo platform to play a waterd down Madden and CoD. The switch 2 does not have the price advantage that the original switch had. Which what was the biggest driver of it selling that 152 million units.

You said the Switch sold 152 million units because of a $200-$250 differential with other consoles. The only model of the Switch that has that price differential with other consoles is the Switch Lite, and that, only for PS5 and Xbox Series, which, as a reminder, are consoles that released three and a half years after the original Switch, which until then had competed against the PS4 and Xbox One, which were very often sold for cheaper than the $300 price for the Switch.

The focus on Switch Lite is because of your claim about the $250 price differential. The only way that is possible to have contributed to the bulk of the 152 million unit sales is if the Lite was the biggest seller of the Switch line, which it was not. Every other model is $300 or above, and those are the ones that sold more.

 

[Deerock71]

Is it cause the Japanese love handhelds? Why has Nintendo been so dominant in Japan whereas Sony has faulted massively in their homeland?

By the way, I can see Switch 2 being a massive success. Not as big as the Switch but still a 100 Million plus seller.

I'm predicting PS4-ish numbers.

 

[EverydayBeast]

100 million is what people expect from any Nintendo console going forward.

 

[Buggy Loop]

His thread creation privileges were revoked:

Post in thread 'Back with more Bad Switch 2 news.'

May 14, 2025

Oh look they actually closed it! Amazing job! That's sure to stop him from making anymore of them!

In addition to closing that thread, we have also revoked that users ability to make new threads going forward.

• Palliasso

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[KenaiPhoenix]

Ufff... I dont think this will become a reality.

First, the Switch 2 is not even on par with current gen consoles/PC, so porting stuff is still going to require more effort. The Switch 2 is not going to be as big as the first one: people are moving on from video games, mobile market is still increasing (and people already have game capable phones) and the existence of PC-Steam-Deck (even if I must admit they run in their own path). Game prices will dissuade many too. You dont only have to pay the console, you also need to get the games.

And once the PS6/X1080 arrives, they will be even more outmatched in terms of specs (again).

Now, on the defense on Nintendo, they dont care that much. A while ago they entered the mobile market and most of their revenue comes from mobile games.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

This keeps getting repeated. Developers are already looking to adjust for a simultaneous Switch 2 release. This wasn't the case with the Switch 1.

Nintendo is now a direct competition.

I know, I was being sarcastic.

 

[Deerock71]

Ufff... I dont think this will become a reality.

First, the Switch 2 is not even on par with current gen consoles/PC, so porting stuff is still going to require more effort. The Switch 2 is not going to be as big as the first one: people are moving on from video games, mobile market is still increasing (and people already have game capable phones) and the existence of PC-Steam-Deck (even if I must admit they run in their own path). Game prices will dissuade many too. You dont only have to pay the console, you also need to get the games.

And once the PS6/X1080 arrives, they will be even more outmatched in terms of specs (again).

Now, on the defense on Nintendo, they dont care that much. A while ago they entered the mobile market and most of their revenue comes from mobile games.

Mario Kart World > System Seller.

 

[Woopah]

Ufff... I dont think this will become a reality.

First, the Switch 2 is not even on par with current gen consoles/PC, so porting stuff is still going to require more effort. The Switch 2 is not going to be as big as the first one: people are moving on from video games, mobile market is still increasing (and people already have game capable phones) and the existence of PC-Steam-Deck (even if I must admit they run in their own path). Game prices will dissuade many too. You dont only have to pay the console, you also need to get the games.

And once the PS6/X1080 arrives, they will be even more outmatched in terms of specs (again).

Now, on the defense on Nintendo, they dont care that much. A while ago they entered the mobile market and most of their revenue comes from mobile games.

They entered the mobile market last decade when they were struggling, but ever since the Switch took off they've hardly done any mobile activity at all (except the Pokémon Company).

 

[Neofire]

1. That's exactly what the breakdown states
2. They are not saying Slim is the bulk of PS4 sales. They are saying that you can remove the Lite numbers from the Switch total and it's still higher than the PS4.

I never said the switch lite was the bulk of the switch's sales either I said that the switch releasing at a cheaper price than when the PS4(and Xbox one) released was when an advantage for the original switch. I stand corrected on the 25 million lite units breakdown though.

Other than that I disagree wholeheartedly with the assertions because in the real world the parents who bought these for their kids had price and portability highest on their decision making. While the switch 2 still has the portability still there, price and uniqueness do not have coming out the gate like the original switch did. There are so many other cheaper options in the PC handheld space.

I could get into the price hikes and game keys and all that crap but at the end of the day casual gamers either don't know or don't care.

 

[Woopah]

I never said the switch lite was the bulk of the switch's sales either

I know you didn't say that, I never said you said that.

I said that the switch releasing at a cheaper price than when the PS4(and Xbox one) released was when an advantage for the original switch. I stand corrected on the 25 million lite units breakdown though.

You said "The switch was 50-70 cheaper than the PS4 in 2017 at 299 with deals around 279. While the PS4 was 349-399."

This is false.

Switch had an advantage over the launch prices of PS4 /XBO, but it had no price advantage over those platforms when the Switch actually came out in the US. There were several times in 2017 when the PS4 or XBO could be bought at cheaper prices than the Switch.

Other than that I disagree wholeheartedly with the assertions because in the real world the parents who bought these for their kids had price and portability highest on their decision making. While the switch 2 still has the portability still there, price and uniqueness do not have coming out the gate like the original switch did. There are so many other cheaper options in the PC handheld space.

Price is a factor, but it's not as important as value.

The reason people were buying a 299 Switch over a 299 PS4, or a 299 Xbox One or a 299 Series S wasn't price, but because it offered unique value.

Throughout the Switch's life, the popularity of each model has always been connected to value, not price. The cheaper the model, the less popular it is.

Switch 2 does have a higher price than its predecessor, and that's a challenge. But just like with the PS5, you can mostly overcome the price barrier through value. The Switch was priced competitively with PS4 and Xbox One when it came out. The Switch 2 has competitive pricing too. Now it's up to Nintendo to deliver the value.

Think about it this way. Your original claim was that the Switch crossed 150 million "because it was a $200 handheld". So why didn't that happen for the 3DS?

 

[PatientGamer]

"primary partner for third-party game publishers"

Yes, 3rd-parties are chomping at the bit to develop cutting-edge games for what is essentially a PS4 Pro in 2025 and beyond.

lol

 

[Horseganador]

In 2029, the main focus of developers will be PS6-Steam and Playstation will have the largest market share with PS5-PS6, thinking that Switch 2 will be the focus is absurd.

 

[GoldenEye98]

The logic doesn't really hold because if it was just about the install base then Switch 1 would be a primary platform for third party publishers.

The only way I could see Switch 2 becoming a primary platform for third party is if the Playstation and Xbox handhelds somehow end up more popular than their traditional consoles and that pulls the industry towards that spec target. Very skeptical that is what happens though.

 

[Neofire]

I know you didn't say that, I never said you said that.


You said "The switch was 50-70 cheaper than the PS4 in 2017 at 299 with deals around 279. While the PS4 was 349-399."

This is false.

Switch had an advantage over the launch prices of PS4 /XBO, but it had no price advantage over those platforms when the Switch actually came out in the US. There were several times in 2017 when the PS4 or XBO could be bought at cheaper prices than the Switch.



Price is a factor, but it's not as important as value.

The reason people were buying a 299 Switch over a 299 PS4, or a 299 Xbox One or a 299 Series S wasn't price, but because it offered unique value.

Throughout the Switch's life, the popularity of each model has always been connected to value, not price. The cheaper the model, the less popular it is.

Switch 2 does have a higher price than its predecessor, and that's a challenge. But just like with the PS5, you can mostly overcome the price barrier through value. The Switch was priced competitively with PS4 and Xbox One when it came out. The Switch 2 has competitive pricing too. Now it's up to Nintendo to deliver the value.

Think about it this way. Your original claim was that the Switch crossed 150 million "because it was a $200 handheld". So why didn't that happen for the 3DS?

Comparing the 3DS, a decade and a half handheld (with a host of problems) to modern day consoles is not why I posted on this topic.

"Price is a factor, but it's not as important as value."

This is subjective, not everyone feels or thinks this way.

I disagree with the statement of the switch 2 being "priced competitively" I think Nintendo honestly wanting to release it at 399 but decided against it due to the unstable markets so they took the maximum price point they could get away with without more backlash. Looking at the shift in game prices with some of their 1st party titles being 80 dollars(when none of the other console manufacturer are doing yet). This means, to me, that Nintendo is trying to make up for the loss they are taking on switch 2 itself at 450 because throughout Nintendo's history I've never seen them increase software like this. I don't think Mario cart world had a 300 million dollar budget lol

 

[noshten]

100 million is certainly possible if financial systems are stable but with current tariff and trade war situation we cannot really count on stability.
At least in Japan things are looking very positive for the Switch 2 with Mario Kart World being the perfect game to drive demand launch year, combined with cross-gen Pokémon Legends: Z-A and a bunch of other titles that are likely going to hit over 0.5 million.

Japan
Switch (2017-2021)

• sold-through around ~23 million units
• launch CY sell through >3.2 million units(three additional months compared to Switch 2)
• launch month sell through >0.5 million units
• shortages & lottery to purchase Switch until 2019
• peak year 2020 sell through >5.9 million units(New Horizon + COVID)
• Three multi-million selling third party titles Minecraft(2017), Momotaro Dentetsu(2020), Monster Hunter Rise(2021)
• revisions Lite(2019) & OLED(2021)

Switch 2 (2025-2029)
My expectations

• sold-through around ~27 million units
• launch CY sell through >4.5 million units
• launch month sell through ~1.5 million units
• due to region lock and Nintendo stockpiling more units for the launch and having a larger and more mature supply chain I don't foresee any big shortages launch year
• peak year 2027 sell through >6.5 million units
• At least five multi-million selling third party titles
• Similar revisions time-frame - cheaper Lite model in 2027 which leads to the peak year in combination with mass appeal game(prob new Animal Crossing), more expensive OLED in 2029

I think final sell-through in Japan will be only slighter higher than Switch in the same time-frame(minus three months). Mainly because much fewer units will be exported to other markets due to region lock. At least 5 million Switch units ended up exported to China and other markets due to favorable currency conditions(weak yen). This will not happen with the Switch 2 and vast majority of units will end up in the hands of Japanese consumers so although sell-through is similar the actual amount of units in Japan will be much greater.

Launch year will be much greater with launch month sell-through of around 1.5 million, I expect that it will break the launch week record PS2 holds(600K+) with over 700K units sold through to retailers and an additional over 300K sold via the MyNintendo Store. Switch did have huge shortages at launch as there were question marks if after the Wii U Nintendo could turn things around and it took a long time for stock situation to normalize. There were lotteries for years and that was topped off with Nintendo having trouble to scale up production.

By the end of the year I think sell-through across retail and MyNintendo Store will be over 4.5 million with an additional 0.5 million units shipped but not sold for January.

Peak Year for the Switch 2 will be earlier due to lack of Global Event like COVID, so I'm thinking 2027 is actually the peak due to Switch 2 Lite launch in combination with a new Animal Crossing game and a new mainline Pokemon title exclusive to the system.


Now the main difference I foresee is the difference in Japanese third party support compared to the Switch (2017-2021) period,

• It took a long time for Japanese AAA third party games to arrive on the Switch, and even when they did it was a handful or late/half arsed ports
• AA also took sometime to adapt to the new reality due to a lot of them being aligned to PS ecosystem in the prior gen
• In Japan there were very few indie publishers at the start of the Switch life so that niche was largely filled by Western Indies who had a string of huge hits on the system - Stardew, Human Fall Flat, Overcooked 1&2 are three Western Indies that have surpassed 2 million units in Japan on the Switch

Nintendo & PC pretty much eliminated PS from Japan, Sony are getting fewer and fewer Japanese console exclusives. Right now we can still count on Capcom & Bandai's AAA efforts but for the rest the writing is on the wall as they all changed strategy in the past two years and Switch 2 will be central part of it. Square, Sega, Koei Tecmo & Kadokawa are all publishers I expect to have Switch 2 in their pipeline for their next major unannounced titles.

Pretty much all Japanese AA and indie publishers there are targeting Switch 2 as the lead platform - this wasn't the case when the Switch launched when PS4 was still selling decent amount of software in the country and many smaller publishers were aligned with PS for years and in some cases decades. However when PS killed the Vita and their local gaming branch they killed off a lot of the relationships with smaller publishers and Nintendo stepped in with the Switch. Right now if you are a smaller publisher with limited resources Switch 2 is likely the first time we see majority of new AA titles be console exclusives because with the amount of sales games achieve on the PS5 in Japan it just doesn't make financial sense to target the platform at launch.

Japanese indies are also finding their feet Aladin (Suika Game) Edelweiss (Sakuna), Hakababunko (Urban Myth Dissolution Center), Kotake Create (Exit 8), Too Kyo Games (Hundred Line) are just a few Japanese indies that have had major success on the Switch in recent years and as AAA becomes more and more risky and risk averse - a lot of experienced developers in Japan might be pushed towards making their own studios with lower budget/# of employees etc where they can take more risks while targeting Switch and PC as lead platforms.


I expect most of the growth for the Switch to come via "Other" region now, due to the region locking of Japan - places like Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand etc will be critical as the units sold there are likely to end up being exported into China's gray market which is unlikely to get an official launch of the Switch 2 anytime soon. Switch sold around 12 million units in "Other" region by the end of 2021 I expect that by the end of 2029 Switch 2 to be around 20 million in "Other" region with South East Asia making up 2/3 of sales.

Europe also has space for growth as does the US main thing is getting sports games with parity and some of the major Western AAA games like CoD but again especially in the US a lot depends on the economic situation and trade wars - if Switch 2 is hit with a price hike due to tariffs we are more likely to see a decline there

 

[Woopah]

Comparing the 3DS, a decade and a half handheld (with a host of problems) to modern day consoles is not why I posted on this topic.

"Price is a factor, but it's not as important as value."

This is subjective, not everyone feels or thinks this way.

Value being more important than price isn't subjective. It's an objective fact proved by the data.

If Switch audience cared more about price than value, the Lite would be the most popular model. They choose higher value over a cheaper price, and that has been the case every single year.

Same reason the Switch is much more successful than the chesper, mote portable 3DS because it offers more value

The two biggest factors in Switch's success are its games and the hybrid form factor

I disagree with the statement of the switch 2 being "priced competitively" I think Nintendo honestly wanting to release it at 399 but decided against it due to the unstable markets so they took the maximum price point they could get away with without more backlash.

Switch 2 is still going to be cheaper than the Series X and standard PS5. So that's competitive no?

I do agree they would have liked to be at 399, but I think they couldn't make a profit at that price but could at 450.

Looking at the shift in game prices with some of their 1st party titles being 80 dollars(when none of the other console manufacturer are doing yet). This means, to me, that Nintendo is trying to make up for the loss they are taking on switch 2 itself at 450 because throughout Nintendo's history I've never seen them increase software like this. I don't think Mario cart world had a 300 million dollar budget lol

Its not just Nintendo going to 80, Microsoft will go to 80 this year too. We'll see if Sony follows suit.

The main issue for Nintendo is less the cost of development (though that is also rising) but the cost of the format. Disks are fairly cheap, but cartridges are not. That's why Nintendo is only offering/using 64gb cartridges, to ramp up demand and try to push down prices for large cartridges.

 

[Neofire]

Value being more important than price isn't subjective. It's an objective fact proved by the data.

If Switch audience cared more about price than value, the Lite would be the most popular model. They choose higher value over a cheaper price, and that has been the case every single year.

Same reason the Switch is much more successful than the chesper, mote portable 3DS because it offers more value

The two biggest factors in Switch's success are its games and the hybrid form factor


Switch 2 is still going to be cheaper than the Series X and standard PS5. So that's competitive no?

I do agree they would have liked to be at 399, but I think they couldn't make a profit at that price but could at 450.

Its not just Nintendo going to 80, Microsoft will go to 80 this year too. We'll see if Sony follows suit.

The main issue for Nintendo is less the cost of development (though that is also rising) but the cost of the format. Disks are fairly cheap, but cartridges are not. That's why Nintendo is only offering/using 64gb cartridges, to ramp up demand and try to push down prices for large cartridges.

You know good and well Microsoft raised their prices(across the board) after the fact not because they knew Nintendo was going to do it lol. According to Microsoft it's due the market and tariffs, which I call bs on Microsoft's part.

Also post this data that people care more about this received value (which is subjective from person to person in itself)than price and I will show you that for every price cut on any system have almost always boosted sales. Most times a substantial boost and some fewer cases a moderate boost. The 3DS you keep bringing up had a price cut a few months after it's release and it spurred sales. Sadly the system was plagued with problems from a physical standpoint and practicality.

Hince why the PS5 currently is showing slowing sales and it's tied to its persistently high price relative to when it launched over 5 years ago. No one in their right mind is going to say the PS5's value has diminished. If we go by your logic.

But I've enjoyed the discussion, it's been a while since I've talked anything Nintendo because while I do not play the switch personally, my son likes his switch and my GF but they do not like the performance of the games outside of Mario kart lol.

 

[Spyxos]

Dont think so, hardware is just too weak. There would be no Monster Hunter Wilds no Gta 6, Space Marine2 or any hardware hungry games for it.

 

[Woopah]

You know good and well Microsoft raised their prices(across the board) after the fact not because they knew Nintendo was going to do it lol. According to Microsoft it's due the market and tariffs, which I call bs on Microsoft's part.

I'm not sure what you mean here. You said "Looking at the shift in game prices with some of their 1st party titles being 80 dollars(when none of the other console manufacturer are doing yet)."

I was pointing out that Microsoft will also start charging $80 for games in 2025. So there is another console manufacturer that will be doing it.

Looking at the shift in game prices with some of their 1st party titles being 80 dollars(when none of the other console manufacturer are doing yet).

The data is in the model sales. If someone's two main reasons for getting a Switch are price and portability, why would they pay $299 for a standard model instead of $199 for a more portable Lite?

The decision for each individual is subjective. But it's an objective fact that most Switch buyers would rather pay more and get more value, than pay less and get less value.

Same with Xbox Series vs. PS5. People aren't buying the platform that offers the lowest price, they are buying the one they think offers the best value for money.

A price cut has a positive impact on sales because it means someone can get the same amount of value for a lower price.

Hince why the PS5 currently is showing slowing sales and it's tied to its persistently high price relative to when it launched over 5 years ago. No one in their right mind is going to say the PS5's value has diminished. If we go by your logic.

The success of PS5 shows what I'm saying. It has a noticeably higher price than the PS4 did at this point in its life, but has sold pretty similar numbers so far because it offers fantastic value.

The success of both PS4 and Switch was driven more by their games than their price point. That's why it's possible for their successors to also be successful, even with higher prices.

But I've enjoyed the discussion, it's been a while since I've talked anything Nintendo because while I do not play the switch personally, my son likes his switch and my GF but they do not like the performance of the games outside of Mario kart lol.

I'm enjoying it too

 

[Mister Wolf]

Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy should be designed with the Switch 2 as the primary platform.

 

[MoreJRPG]

2021 tech will not be the primary platform in 2030 unless studios want to have an endless dev shortage.

 

[HerjansEagleFeeder]

If user count was the only metric relevant to this, Steam would be the "primary" partner for the publishers every console gen.

 

[LakeOf9]

If user count was the only metric relevant to this, Steam would be the "primary" partner for the publishers every console gen.

The difference being no one expected Switch to do well, and by the time it was clear it was doing well, it was way too late to integrate it into the pipeline.

 

[Woopah]

100 million is certainly possible if financial systems are stable but with current tariff and trade war situation we cannot really count on stability.
At least in Japan things are looking very positive for the Switch 2 with Mario Kart World being the perfect game to drive demand launch year, combined with cross-gen Pokémon Legends: Z-A and a bunch of other titles that are likely going to hit over 0.5 million.

Japan
Switch (2017-2021)

• sold-through around ~23 million units
• launch CY sell through >3.2 million units(three additional months compared to Switch 2)
• launch month sell through >0.5 million units
• shortages & lottery to purchase Switch until 2019
• peak year 2020 sell through >5.9 million units(New Horizon + COVID)
• Three multi-million selling third party titles Minecraft(2017), Momotaro Dentetsu(2020), Monster Hunter Rise(2021)
• revisions Lite(2019) & OLED(2021)

Switch 2 (2025-2029)
My expectations

• sold-through around ~27 million units
• launch CY sell through >4.5 million units
• launch month sell through ~1.5 million units
• due to region lock and Nintendo stockpiling more units for the launch and having a larger and more mature supply chain I don't foresee any big shortages launch year
• peak year 2027 sell through >6.5 million units
• At least five multi-million selling third party titles
• Similar revisions time-frame - cheaper Lite model in 2027 which leads to the peak year in combination with mass appeal game(prob new Animal Crossing), more expensive OLED in 2029

I think final sell-through in Japan will be only slighter higher than Switch in the same time-frame(minus three months). Mainly because much fewer units will be exported to other markets due to region lock. At least 5 million Switch units ended up exported to China and other markets due to favorable currency conditions(weak yen). This will not happen with the Switch 2 and vast majority of units will end up in the hands of Japanese consumers so although sell-through is similar the actual amount of units in Japan will be much greater.

Launch year will be much greater with launch month sell-through of around 1.5 million, I expect that it will break the launch week record PS2 holds(600K+) with over 700K units sold through to retailers and an additional over 300K sold via the MyNintendo Store. Switch did have huge shortages at launch as there were question marks if after the Wii U Nintendo could turn things around and it took a long time for stock situation to normalize. There were lotteries for years and that was topped off with Nintendo having trouble to scale up production.

By the end of the year I think sell-through across retail and MyNintendo Store will be over 4.5 million with an additional 0.5 million units shipped but not sold for January.

Peak Year for the Switch 2 will be earlier due to lack of Global Event like COVID, so I'm thinking 2027 is actually the peak due to Switch 2 Lite launch in combination with a new Animal Crossing game and a new mainline Pokemon title exclusive to the system.


Now the main difference I foresee is the difference in Japanese third party support compared to the Switch (2017-2021) period,

• It took a long time for Japanese AAA third party games to arrive on the Switch, and even when they did it was a handful or late/half arsed ports
• AA also took sometime to adapt to the new reality due to a lot of them being aligned to PS ecosystem in the prior gen
• In Japan there were very few indie publishers at the start of the Switch life so that niche was largely filled by Western Indies who had a string of huge hits on the system - Stardew, Human Fall Flat, Overcooked 1&2 are three Western Indies that have surpassed 2 million units in Japan on the Switch

Nintendo & PC pretty much eliminated PS from Japan, Sony are getting fewer and fewer Japanese console exclusives. Right now we can still count on Capcom & Bandai's AAA efforts but for the rest the writing is on the wall as they all changed strategy in the past two years and Switch 2 will be central part of it. Square, Sega, Koei Tecmo & Kadokawa are all publishers I expect to have Switch 2 in their pipeline for their next major unannounced titles.

Pretty much all Japanese AA and indie publishers there are targeting Switch 2 as the lead platform - this wasn't the case when the Switch launched when PS4 was still selling decent amount of software in the country and many smaller publishers were aligned with PS for years and in some cases decades. However when PS killed the Vita and their local gaming branch they killed off a lot of the relationships with smaller publishers and Nintendo stepped in with the Switch. Right now if you are a smaller publisher with limited resources Switch 2 is likely the first time we see majority of new AA titles be console exclusives because with the amount of sales games achieve on the PS5 in Japan it just doesn't make financial sense to target the platform at launch.

Japanese indies are also finding their feet Aladin (Suika Game) Edelweiss (Sakuna), Hakababunko (Urban Myth Dissolution Center), Kotake Create (Exit 8), Too Kyo Games (Hundred Line) are just a few Japanese indies that have had major success on the Switch in recent years and as AAA becomes more and more risky and risk averse - a lot of experienced developers in Japan might be pushed towards making their own studios with lower budget/# of employees etc where they can take more risks while targeting Switch and PC as lead platforms.


I expect most of the growth for the Switch to come via "Other" region now, due to the region locking of Japan - places like Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand etc will be critical as the units sold there are likely to end up being exported into China's gray market which is unlikely to get an official launch of the Switch 2 anytime soon. Switch sold around 12 million units in "Other" region by the end of 2021 I expect that by the end of 2029 Switch 2 to be around 20 million in "Other" region with South East Asia making up 2/3 of sales.

Europe also has space for growth as does the US main thing is getting sports games with parity and some of the major Western AAA games like CoD but again especially in the US a lot depends on the economic situation and trade wars - if Switch 2 is hit with a price hike due to tariffs we are more likely to see a decline there

I agree with most of what you wrote but I think you're over optimistic about Japan. I can't see Switch 2 doing over 6.5 million in a single year.