Nintendo likely to become "primary partner for third-party game publishers" over next gen, Switch 2 will sell 100 million by 2030 - DFC Intelligence

Yes, and Nintendo is more than happy to have that "problem", they have the absolute control of the Japanese market, they can keep selling the Switch 1 for years.
They could but I'd imagine they want to put that behind to focus solely on pumping out the S2 where they'll see their largest gains. High costs along with good game support hampers that a bit.
 
They could but I'd imagine they want to put that behind to focus solely on pumping out the S2 where they'll see their largest gains. High costs along with good game support hampers that a bit.
Yes, but they have the control to do a smooth transition and they secure ~35Million sales without any issue.
 
They could but I'd imagine they want to put that behind to focus solely on pumping out the S2 where they'll see their largest gains. High costs along with good game support hampers that a bit.
Its going to be an important balacing act for them. You want to grow the Switch 2 userbase quite quickly, but also not all the 129 million will move over in the first couple of years. So you want to keep those Switch owners engaged until they are ready to move over. Hence why they still have major Switch games in 2026.
 
I'd agree. It's able to reach an interesting marker: PC gamers who appreciate the console-itude of it with the new joycon features, and casual phone gamers. My wife is an avid phone gamer. Mostly word games, but she buys every Mario and Mario adjacent title that comes out.

Walls are closing in on Sony. PS5 is banking on PS4 inertia, covid bump and Microsoft having the worst luck of all time with their developer employees. I still standby the notion that they made a lot of good decisions and got let down by very poor quality of work from the developers they hired. No one on GAF would have balked on this list of projects pre-launch.

- Brand new Halo title with ton of money behind it.
- Bethesda making a brand new Elder Scrolls-like IP but it takes place in outer space
- Arkane making an FPS where you hunt vampires in the modern era
- Obsidian making Skyrim New Vegas
- Brand new Gears installment

And the devs shat the bed on each and every one. Not to mention getting fucked by the business side of things where you don't retain your exclusives and aren't allowed to leverage the COD ownership and making the rule that every feature of every game had to be available on Series S. Plus negative inertia from the Xbone.

If Switch 2 can avoid a curse like this, I think they're in good shape. The hardware spec looks good. I'm reliably informed by GAF that slop scalers are actually better than native res, and they're the only console with an Nvidia chip.
 
By 2030 Sony will have had more than 100 million PS5 and PS6 units combined and both significantly more powerful than the Switch 2. Sony will remain the prime partner for third party publishers.
 
Nintendo is in a great position with third parties, you can see the console splits in the Europe weekly games sales reports, games available on the 3 platforms, the Switch version outperforms the Xbox version every single time and sometimes the PS5 version. When the Switch 2 start receiving the big third parties games is going to be interesting.
What big 3rd party games you expect to see on SW2? Any big ones announced already?
 
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Primary in Japan maybe but that is it. They will get a few more ports because of it being a decent leap in power(headheld wise) but to say that devs will just make it the primary platform out of the blue is conjecture at best.

If anything the analyst are low key promoting the switch 2.
 
Primary in Japan maybe but that is it. They will get a few more ports because of it being a decent leap in power(headheld wise) but to say that devs will just make it the primary platform out of the blue is conjecture at best.

If anything the analyst are low key promoting the switch 2.
It's as if people forget Nintendo sold 152 million and counting Switches WITHOUT Call of Duty or Madden.
 
I'd agree. It's able to reach an interesting marker: PC gamers who appreciate the console-itude of it with the new joycon features, and casual phone gamers. My wife is an avid phone gamer. Mostly word games, but she buys every Mario and Mario adjacent title that comes out.

Walls are closing in on Sony. PS5 is banking on PS4 inertia, covid bump and Microsoft having the worst luck of all time with their developer employees. I still standby the notion that they made a lot of good decisions and got let down by very poor quality of work from the developers they hired. No one on GAF would have balked on this list of projects pre-launch.

- Brand new Halo title with ton of money behind it.
- Bethesda making a brand new Elder Scrolls-like IP but it takes place in outer space
- Arkane making an FPS where you hunt vampires in the modern era
- Obsidian making Skyrim New Vegas
- Brand new Gears installment

And the devs shat the bed on each and every one. Not to mention getting fucked by the business side of things where you don't retain your exclusives and aren't allowed to leverage the COD ownership and making the rule that every feature of every game had to be available on Series S. Plus negative inertia from the Xbone.

If Switch 2 can avoid a curse like this, I think they're in good shape. The hardware spec looks good. I'm reliably informed by GAF that slop scalers are actually better than native res, and they're the only console with an Nvidia chip.
Nintendo won't suffer the same issues as Microsoft, but at the same time the walls are not closing in on Sony.
What big 3rd party games you expect to see on SW2? Any big ones announced already?
In terms of sales, Madden, FIFA and COD would be thrilled biggest this year, even though Nintendo doesn't have that big an audience for traditional sports games.

I also expect to see Assassin's Creed Shadows, DB Sparking Zero, DQ III. and MGS Delta to be announced this year. And a couple more games from MS but I'm not sure what
 
About the only hold out after that would be R*. Who knows if that's actually the case?
There are tons of more big 3rd party games. Are most of them going to Switch2? Even the not so big ones, don't you figure they shouldn't skip it?
 
There are tons of more big 3rd party games. Are most of them going to Switch2? Even the not so big ones, don't you figure they shouldn't skip it?
No official announcements yet, but I expect that Expedition 33 game to make the jump.
 
Nintendo won't suffer the same issues as Microsoft, but at the same time the walls are not closing in on Sony.

In terms of sales, Madden, FIFA and COD would be thrilled biggest this year, even though Nintendo doesn't have that big an audience for traditional sports games.

I also expect to see Assassin's Creed Shadows, DB Sparking Zero, DQ III. and MGS Delta to be announced this year. And a couple more games from MS but I'm not sure what
Tall order. Is any UE5 game known for SW2?
 
No official announcements yet, but I expect that Expedition 33 game to make the jump.
an UE5 game from a small dev that runs sub-HD on current consoles?

Liam Neeson Good Luck GIF
 
That 15k is not a flex though. A big part of the switch's library is shovelware trash and just navigating through them on the store can be a chore. Sometimes less is more.
Lol trust me, I know about the shovelware. Just making a point that 3rd party support isn't an issue on Switch.
 
Nice, if this happens it should ensure games perform nicely on PS5 and low/mid tier PCs for the foreseeable future.
 
Tall order. Is any UE5 game known for SW2?
Borderlands 4 and Split Fiction are the ones I can think of. Plus Fortnite.

It's going to see a fair amount of big ports that next gen only, things like Rebirth and BG3.
 
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It's as if people forget Nintendo sold 152 million and counting Switches WITHOUT Call of Duty or Madden.
It sold 152 units because it was a 300 dollar headheld(which now you can get it for dirt cheap these days). I could say the same that people forgot that the original switch is 200-250 cheaper than any other system(even more if you compare it to pc handhelds). People aren't buying a Nintendo platform to play a waterd down Madden and CoD. The switch 2 does not have the price advantage that the original switch had. Which what was the biggest driver of it selling that 152 million units.
 
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Too bad that Sony won't have any competition. It could've been Nintendo if they were to become primary partner for third-party game publishers.🤷🏾‍♂️
This keeps getting repeated. Developers are already looking to adjust for a simultaneous Switch 2 release. This wasn't the case with the Switch 1.

Nintendo is now a direct competition.
 
It sold 152 units because it was a 200 dollar headheld. I could say the same that people forgot that the original switch is 200-250 cheaper than any other system(even more if you compare it to pc handhelds). People aren't buying a Nintendo platform to play a waterd down Madden and CoD. The switch 2 does not have the price advantage that the original switch had. Which what was the biggest driver of it selling that 152 million units.
The Switch Lite is the worse selling version of the console 🤣 What are you talking about?
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It sold 152 units because it was a 200 dollar headheld.
The Switch Lite (the only model that is $200) sold 25.5 million units. That's under a fifth of all Switch systems sold.

Meaning 125 million units were sold at $300 or above.

I could say the same that people forgot that the original switch is 200-250 cheaper than any other system
Except no it was not. At launch, the Switch cost $300, which was the same price as PS4 and Xbox One. In fact, in Holiday 2017, the PS4 Slim was available for $200, to the Switch's $300 price.

The Switch is cheaper than PS5, which launched three and a half years after it ($50 for OLED, $100 for standard), and was priced the same as Series S (standard), or $50 more (OLED).

even more if you compare it to pc handhelds
Why should we? These are boutique products sold to order. They literally do not register for the mass market

People aren't buying a Nintendo platform to play a waterd down Madden and CoD.
52% of all software sales on Switch are third party sales

The switch 2 does not have the price advantage that the original switch had.
As mentioned, the original Switch had no price advantage

Which what was the biggest driver of it selling that 152 million units.
As mentioned, this is false
 
It sold 152 units because it was a 300 dollar headheld(which now you can get it for dirt cheap these days). I could say the same that people forgot that the original switch is 200-250 cheaper than any other system(even more if you compare it to pc handhelds). People aren't buying a Nintendo platform to play a waterd down Madden and CoD. The switch 2 does not have the price advantage that the original switch had. Which what was the biggest driver of it selling that 152 million units.
How much do you think the PS4 cost in 2017? Hint: it was very close to the Switch.
 
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It sold 152 units because it was a 300 dollar headheld(which now you can get it for dirt cheap these days). I could say the same that people forgot that the original switch is 200-250 cheaper than any other system(even more if you compare it to pc handhelds). People aren't buying a Nintendo platform to play a waterd down Madden and CoD. The switch 2 does not have the price advantage that the original switch had. Which what was the biggest driver of it selling that 152 million units.
I don't have numbers (except weekly Famitsu), but the OLED Switch was the #1 driver of Switch units since it launched, and it was $350 bones. $100 more for a true generational leap (seems like Switch 2 leapfrogged the PS4/Xbox One generation ENTIRELY) isn't asking too much.
 
I don't have numbers (except weekly Famitsu), but the OLED Switch was the #1 driver of Switch units since it launched, and it was $350 bones. $100 more for a true generational leap (seems like Switch 2 leapfrogged the PS4/Xbox One generation ENTIRELY) isn't asking too much.
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The OLED has been the best-selling model for every full year after its introduction. The only year after being introduced where it DIDN'T sell the most was 2021, and that was because it was released in the last quarter of that year to begin with
 
Sony just posted all time records for revenue, profit and active userbase but hey, according to some they are doomed because of potatoes.
Concord also broke all time records for the most rapid descent from hyped release to graveyard, proving even peak performance can't guarantee live-service success.
 
This is where I believe DLSS and a shit-ton of RAM is going to be the Switch 2's black magic.
Unfortunately while DLSS can help with GPU shortcomings, and RAM certainly tends to be the biggest bottleneck usually, in this case, neither the RAM nor DLSS address CPU weaknesses. Theoretically I can see Rockstar attempting to use the Series S build as a base, turn down resolution and rendering, offload some CPU calculations to the GPU, and use DLSS to patch up the downgraded image quality. So it can be done.

it just requires so much work that I can't see them bothering. GTA4/5 and RDR2, probably, in fact at least 2/3 of those are a near certainty. GTA6, I don't see it.
 
How much do you think the PS4 cost in 2017? Hint: it was very close to the Switch.
The switch was 50-70 cheaper than the PS4 in 2017 at 299 with deals around 279. While the PS4 was 349-399. Not to mention the switch only being on the market less than a year and these prices were with the PS4 price cuts.
 
The switch was 50-70 cheaper than the PS4 in 2017 at 299 with deals around 279. While the PS4 was 349-399. Not to mention the switch only being on the market less than a year and these prices were with the PS4 price cuts.
The PS4 was $299 in March 2017. It cost $199 in Holiday 2017.

Switch cost $299 at launch.

Your numbers are all wrong.

EDIT: OMG, Switch was actually more expensive than PS4 at the time of release lol


And while I hate to use opportunities like this to talk about the Switch, I can't quite help myself. This a $250 modern console with a game, as opposed to a $300 console with a game. Nintendo is entering into a mature generation against some very tough competitors, and it's bringing a limited library and an expensive price point to the table. This is a difficult position to be in.
Almost word for word what some skeptics have been saying about the Switch 2, in fact.
 
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In Japan, absolutely. I'd say they already are
Is it cause the Japanese love handhelds? Why has Nintendo been so dominant in Japan whereas Sony has faulted massively in their homeland?

By the way, I can see Switch 2 being a massive success. Not as big as the Switch but still a 100 Million plus seller.
 
Is it cause the Japanese love handhelds? Why has Nintendo been so dominant in Japan whereas Sony has faulted massively in their homeland?

By the way, I can see Switch 2 being a massive success. Not as big as the Switch but still a 100 Million plus seller.
Exactly. Japanese lifestyle has almost always favored handhelds and smaller sized home consoles. Also, despite the lack of popularity of some Nintendo IP (Metroid, Zelda, etc.) in Japan compared to US, Japan loves many other Nintendo IP.

Then there's the cost factor where Switch is easily the cheapest option...but yeah, Nintendo has steadily dominated Japan since 2018.
 
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