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President Trump's Approval Ratings Just Hit Another Low

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U

UnemployedVillain

Member
White voters disapproved 48%, compared to 43%
Non-white voters disapproved 77%, compared to 16%
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B

br3wnor

Member
Hobbestetrician said:
And to stay president. Nearly two-thirds of the country think he is doing a terrible job and yet he and his administration get to keep making decisions that fuck over millions of people for years to come. It's not right.
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That's how elections work. You can't have a running tally of the President's approval rating determine whether or not they can run the country. America chose him to serve as President for 4 years, which barring impeachment or resignation, he has every right to serve.

Our check on his power outside of the courts is Congress which has elections every 2 years. If Democrats can win the house and/or Senate next year we'll be able to curb his power a GREAT deal.

I agree that he's an embarrasment and it's saddening that he's our President, but I also understand you can't have effective leadership if they're subject to the whims of public opinion. The office of the Presidency would be useless if run like that.
 
H

HTupolev

Member
Mr. Blonde said:
Hillary won the popular vote by 3 million because she won california by 4.7 million, but the polls had her winning a plurality of swing states, which did not happen.

So, no.
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The polling data itself wasn't bad. LV variance and its potential effects were misjudged by most aggregators. Part of the issue is that the swing states aren't independent. If two states are both 50-50, and voting data comes in and says which candidate won one of them, the other state is no longer 50-50 but rather likely to swing in favor of the candidate who won the first state.

What swung the swing states was an LV surge that was relatively minor on a national scale, but systematically tipped all close races in the same direction.
 
K

kess

Member
Those are catastrophic numbers with independents. Remember, even when Bush was at sub-30% in 2007-2008, he still had support from 70% of Republicans.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
And look at the shift in Gallup's poll. Remember it's a 3-day moving average, so the shift in the last day must have been pretty big?

f0mE9C1.jpg
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Edit: Gap was -24 points on 28 March 2017. Now only -10 points.
 
E

Earthstrike

Member
Mr. Blonde said:
Hillary won the popular vote by 3 million because she won california by 4.7 million, but the polls had her winning a plurality of swing states, which did not happen.

So, no.
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I know if I was a republican, I would be absolutely ecstatic that my president managed to fail on delivering and achieving any of his major campaign promises multiples times in his first three months while controlling all three branches of government.

These numbers are fake news, and definitely are explained away by looking at the polling numbers for 2016 presidential election.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
306 electoral college votes. Highest number since Reagan, I don't know if any of you know that. Big, landslide victory. And did you come to the inauguration? Most of you did. I saw you there. Literally all of America was standing in the mall that day.
 
Whompa02

Whompa02

Member
Blader said:
At the risk of disappointing you, national polling and state polling are two different sets of polling. At the risk of upsetting you even further, polling approval ratings =/= calculating a candidate's percentage for victory.

Donald Trump was a significantly unpopular candidate last year, so him being a significantly unpopular president this year seems pretty consistent to me.
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Funny to see him stop commenting after you said this lol. Truth hurts.
 
M

Mr. Blonde

Member
Blader said:
At the risk of disappointing you, national polling and state polling are two different sets of polling.
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Never said they weren't. My points were that

1)the average national poll had hillary winning by 3-5pts. She only won by 2, and that is because she wildly exceeded expectations in California(she lost the other 49 states collectively by almost 2 million votes)

and

2)the state polls had her winning more than enough swing states to get to 270, possibly 300+

Blader said:
At the risk of upsetting you even further, polling approval ratings =/= calculating a candidate's percentage for victory.
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Never said it does, all I said was that these approval polls remind me of the election polls, insofar that seemingly everyday we see a "new low" for Trump

Blader said:
Donald Trump was a significantly unpopular candidate last year, so him being a significantly unpopular president this year seems pretty consistent to me.
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He was so significantly unpopular last year that he won 30 states and over 300 EVs. He did lose the national popular vote by 2 points, but in the 49 states that aren't california he came ahead by almost 2 milion votes. By contrast, Obama won the nat. pop by 5 million, and the "non-california" 49 by 2 million.

gcubed said:
That's not how it works though, so... Yay for ignorance?
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Mahonay said:
Keep trying. It's entertaining.
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If you have something of substance to say I'll give you a real reply. Until then, I'll just say that the only intellectually honest way to debate is to point out errors or admissions in someone's facts or logic. Calling me ignorant instead of debating my statements and laughing at me are intellectually dishonest debate tacticts numbers 39 and 23, respectively, on the list linked below:

See https://johntreed.com/blogs/john-t-...t-and-intellectually-dishonest-debate-tactics

Wolfgunblood Garopa said:
Right, because in the post mortem of a Republican loss, conservatives reflect on how unwise it was to call liberals names.
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The republicans at least learned from romneys 47% gaffe and didnt "double down" on it, to borrow ya'll's word, in 2016
 
E

Electric Eye

Banned
Ac30 said:
How did he mismanage that?
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He didn't they did exactly what they had to do to save the doctors that where in the thick of it in Africa and saved thousands of lives but the media had nothing better to do than shit on the attempts to save life's and causing unnecessary panic in America. Yeah.
 
B

BoogieWoogie

Banned
Everyone needs to be recognizing that this is really the best Trump is ever going to get. This is the honeymoon phase. He's going to sink like a fucking stone.
 
E

Einchy

semen stains the mountaintops
Even if you were a Trump supporter, what has he done that would make you approve of him?
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Keep trying to use last year's favorability ratings to say why this doesn't matter. Its one for people not to lik3 you especially when they hate your opponent. It's another when they think you are doing a shit job

Mr blonde I'm sure you are part of the 35% so I would be interested to know what he has done right. As far as I can tell the only thing conservatives should like us the gorsuch nomination
 
S

Stop It

Perfectly able to grasp the inherent value of the fishing game.
Stinkles said:
There was this ONE thing he was, I mean, did...
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Tasked with bailing out the banks and having to manage a double recession? 2013 was a bad point full stop in the world economy and the GOP was itching to shut down the govt so he along with all govt took a hit.

His approval ratings basically tracked the economy, as is usual with presidential ratings outside of external crises and of course he's now more popular than Trump by an order of magnitude.

If the economy slips under Trump, he's toast.
 
L

Lorcain

Member
dankir said:
ONLY 52% OF YOU ARE EMBARASSED? Come on America!
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I know...how can there be 48% that are NOT embarrassed? I'm assuming out of the 48% there is a % of the wonderfully disengaged "Don't care either way" or "Don't Know" responses. Gotta love those people. /s
 
Z

Zeus Molecules

illegal immigrants are stealing our air
Mr. Blonde said:
Keep calling everyone that votes for trump or other republicans stupid and racist and see how far it gets you.
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I am waiting for republicans to give people a reason not to. Like please show all of us evidence that they are as a group not stupid and racist?
 
M

Mahonay

Banned
Mr. Blonde said:
besides gorsuch and attempts to strengthen our immigration vetting, heres a decent list, keeping in mind hes only been in office 2 1/2 months: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/89a...ing Obama/id-c4fa9fa659394514aa645a7cfd3c31ed. but i dont think hes anywhere near perfect by any means, i'm not a fanboy(i didnt even vote for him in the general election, although i was ecstatic that hillary lost)
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You are for the gutting of internet privacy and getting rid of environmental protection. Makes sense.
 
W

Wolfgunblood Garopa

Member
Mr. Blonde said:
The republicans at least learned from romneys 47% gaffe and didnt "double down" on it, to borrow ya'll's word, in 2016
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Republicans gain votes with 'gaffes' like that nowadays.

As long as there's this double standard where liberals are hamstrung by being expected to play by a different set of rules, it's going to be tough. Maybe people will find their sense of right and wrong and judgement of character over the next few years after witnessing the shit show we have currently, that's about our only hope.
 
B

Blader

Member
Mr. Blonde said:
Never said they weren't. My points were that

1)the average national poll had hillary winning by 3-5pts. She only won by 2, and that is because she wildly exceeded expectations in California(she lost the other 49 states collectively by almost 2 million votes)
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Hillary winning the popular vote by 2 points when the average national poll had her winning by 3-5 is well within the margin of error. Hell, Hillary could've lost the popular vote and still been within the margin of error. The national polls here were more accurate than they were in 2012, in any event.

and

2)the state polls had her winning more than enough swing states to get to 270, possibly 300+
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No disagreement from me here. There was something seriously wrong with a number of crucial state polls last year. We know there was a big late-game shift toward Trump following the Comey letter, which prompted a too-little, too-late push from the Clinton campaign into states like Wisconsin and Michigan. State polls are usually slower to respond to these trends, so it stands to reason that there just wasn't enough time left in the election cycle for some of the state polling to pick up that shift before election day. But others were just plainly way off.

Luckily, for the topic at hand, we're talking about nationally-polled approval ratings.

Never said it does, all I said was that these approval polls remind me of the election polls, insofar that seemingly everyday we see a "new low" for Trump
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Okay, well if just the words "new low" are enough for you, then sure. As long as you agree that approval ratings and chances of electoral victory are two completely different sets of data.

He was so significantly unpopular last year that he won 30 states and over 300 EVs. He did lose the national popular vote by 2 points, but in the 49 states that aren't california he came ahead by almost 2 milion votes. By contrast, Obama won the nat. pop by 5 million, and the "non-california" 49 by 2 million.
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Hey, what I can tell ya, Hillary Clinton was super unpopular too. I'm not saying Trump being unpopular precludes him from winning an election. Obviously only one of two people can win, and if the two are similarly disliked, then it stands to reason that small things at the right times -- like an 11th hour change in the narrative that hurt Clinton and benefited Trump -- could get one of those two over the finish line. Trump can remain at 35 percent approval for the next 3.5 years, but if he runs against someone with equally bad or nearly as bad approvals in 2020, he'd still have a good chance of winning re-election.

But, you're again implying here that one has to do with the other. It doesn't. I am not arguing that Trump was too unpopular to win the election (he wasn't, because Hillary's approvals were similarly and, obviously, he ended up winning). I'm just saying Trump having dismal approvals last year and Trump having dismal approvals this year has been pretty consistent. What that means for his past or future electoral chances is beside the point.
 
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