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[Melchiah]

If you look at WiiU vs PS4 in West. People are not buying PS4 because it has better library or launch games. It is for the games coming in rest of 2014, 2015....

It was the same case with PS2 launch. It had a great list of announced titles, with every studio in Japan making games for PS2.

For PS4.. there is nothing in the pipe line.. it is worse than WiiU for Japan. No monster hunter, mario, zelda.. nothing.

I agree with the idea of people buying launch systems partly for the promise. That's always been one of the reasons I've bought a system at launch myself as well, and with the PS2 and PS4, if I hadn't pre-ordered I would have had problems of getting the console for a long time.

I'm pretty sure most of the bigger studios in Japan have announced their support for the PS4. Here's the developer list from the last year's unveiling event:

However, I very much disagree with the idea, that there would be nothing in the horizon. As for Mario & Zelda, they didn't manage to gather interest for the Wii U in the west either. Perhaps people are just getting tired of Nintendo's habit of milking Mario?

 

[coldone]

You seem to think that Japanese people only play Japanese games.

2012 best sellers. This is very similar in 2009, 2010, 2011 too.

01. Pokémon Black/White 2 2,919,977
02. Animal Crossing: New Leaf 1,969,955
03. New Super Mario Bros. 2 1,743,791
04. Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry’s Wonderland 3D 919,870
05. Resident Evil 6 833,012
06. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 828,150
07. Mario Kart 7 748,797
08. Super Mario 3D Land 689,374
09. Mario Party 9 641,348
10. Dragon Quest X 609,783
11. Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate 602,058
12. Yakuza 5 518,224
13. Dragon’s Dogma 467,375
14. Fire Emblem: Awakening 455,268
15. Tales of Xillia 2 428,913
16. Paper Mario: Sticker Star 402,133
17. Pro Evolution Soccer 2013 399,340
18. Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Gates of Infinity 373,699
19. New Super Mario Bros. U 369,392
20. Wii Sports Resort (w/ MotionPlus pack-in) 358,627

 

[Mandoric]

I find you guys' faith in the Japanese market disturbing. 700k sales opening weekend.

Spoiler

I am ready to be oh so wrong

It's not faith in the Japanese market. It's faith in Sony's production capabilities. Japan is around 1/6th of the world market, so presumably they're getting around 1/6th of the hardware, and that means 250-300k units a month by our best presumptions - which is about in between PS2 and PS3, matches most other predictions for JP launch, and falls in line with 3.5x PS3 allocations (PS3 launched with 80k).

You could argue that they've been stockpiling, but since ROW numbers have been steady basically since launch, the only possible conclusion there would be that they've deliberately held back since before launch - that would add up to around a million units, which isn't crazy in terms of Japan's peak potential but IS crazy in terms of starving the US.

On the flip side, it's far easier to serve Japan first when supply is ramped up. Their facilities at Kisarazu -exist- primarily to research better production techniques, and sea shipping from China is around a week rather than around a month.

 

[Nightengale]

GTAV... 700k+
GTAIV sold over 200k
CoD sells somewhere around 200k+
Battlefield sells over 100k
Sony first-party games from SSM and ND also sells over 100k

True, many gamers already purchased said games for the PS3, so next-gen sales will be extremely soft for these titles that were already released months in advance.

But the acceptance of western developed games are growing in Japan. It's slow, but it's a good thing that Japan is partially decoupling itself from only being attuned to Japanese-developed games. Of course, it's still a long journey. I'd be interested to see if GTAVI could break the 1million wall in Japan.

So while the short-term prospects are quite soft, the long-term prospects are better. The great current-gen sales should compell western devs to be more agile in abandoning last-gen, which when happens, should elevate Japan's hardware sales, since games previously playable on their PS3 will be next-gen only then.

That should hopefully happen by 2015. And I'd expect 2015 to also be the year where Japan finally starts releasing a steady stream of content for PS4.

I can imagine that Sony is desperately hoping that FFXV is a 2015 title. That, alongside the prospects of games leaving previous-gen by 2015 is arguably the boost that PS4 will need to lead the charge.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

What would cause that massive spike?

A combination of momentum, marketing, and a big japanese exclusive announcement.


Im basing this soley on my own feelings though. Im probably wrong.

 

[travisbickle]

Sony did not design that did they? because I seriously doubt that they would put a Rising Sun logo on their controller.

It's a photoshop, I can tell by it looking like a photoshop.

 

[Melchiah]

It's a photoshop, I can tell by it looking like a photoshop.

I would take one in black and white.

 

[freefornow]

I'm pretty sure most of the bigger studios in Japan have announced their support for the PS4. Here's the developer list from the last year's unveiling event:

Looking forward to Lucas Arts PS4 game! Hyped!!!

 

[le.phat]

xD

holy shit lol

 

[Melchiah]

Looking forward to Lucas Arts PS4 game! Hyped!!!

The studio was ended after the February event.

#ThingsChange

 

[Deadly Joker]

The studio was ended after the February event.

#ThingsChange

#Sarcasm

 

[travisbickle]

I would take one in black and white.

ok:/?

 

[Coxy]

I think it'll sell however many units they ship week 1

to maintain hype and sales they're going to have to announce some stuff to tide them over til TGS

FF14, Yakuza, Natural Doctrine etc might not seem like enough on their own but certainly enough for people to feel like they might as well get it now instead of suffering lower framerates and resolution IF they think they're going to buy it eventually anyway for future games

 

[RexNovis]

I can personally attest to significant hype in my area of Japan. Many of my students in Fukushima have been talking non stop about the release since the start of February. They're excited!

That said I'm thinking all shipped units will sell quickly and I expect supply to be somewhere between 450k and 475k. Just an educated guess

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

Man, I just have a bad feeling about Japan, just can't shake it. Maybe PS4 will break the console sales dry spell, though I don't have high hopes.

Still, even if it gets ho-hum numbers like last gen, it really says something when out of the 80 million both PS3 and 360 sold, only about 10 million were from Japan for PS3 and around 1 million for 360. The rest of the world out of Japan was really fueling the duo consoles pretty hard.

Honestly, I think PS4 will sell admirably well the first few weeks or even months but what concerns me is the long term. It will probably perform better than Wii U, but not as good as PS3 imo. I don't think there will be near as many Japanese games carrying the system as it was in the PS3 era. Imo, for it to stand a sold chance in Japan for the long term, Japanese developers better pick up the pace with the releases and development time frame.

 

[Shengar]

What sucks, is that Japan has huge historical importance to the console industry, it would be a shame to "lose" them completely, but hey, the market speaks and you have to listen. Exciting times ahead for the next 4-5 weeks to see how it does, where it looks to stabilize and what the reaction is.

It'll take more than weeks to fix the damage that have been done by Kutaragi's krazyness. If Sony can consistently gain 3rd party support from mid tier developer in Japan, then perhaps Japanese console market will be revitalized again. If the PS4 game that Falcom currently in development is truly a Ys game, that indeed a good sign since Falcom as I know mostly developed game for handheld last gen.

GTA V sold 700k is a sign that Japanese isn't lose interest in console, but rather because the game isn't there, nearly all moving to handhelds.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Honestly, I think PS4 will sell admirably well the first few weeks or even months but what concerns me is the long term. It will probably perform better than Wii U, but not as good as PS3 imo. I don't think there will be near as many Japanese games carrying the system as it was in the PS3 era. Imo, for it to stand a sold chance in Japan for the long term, Japanese developers better pick up the pace with the releases and development time frame.

Well it can't be worst than the PS3 early years .
Not only it did not have any games it was very expensive , hoping PS4 being easy to develop for helps .
Still certain games being cross gen would help like DS2 , Tales , P5 etc etc .

 

[Wotanik]

I find you guys' faith in the Japanese market disturbing. 700k sales opening weekend.

Spoiler

I am ready to be oh so wrong

Wow! I'd buy that DS4! Amazing.

 

[Steroyd]

Honestly, I think PS4 will sell admirably well the first few weeks or even months but what concerns me is the long term. It will probably perform better than Wii U, but not as good as PS3 imo. I don't think there will be near as many Japanese games carrying the system as it was in the PS3 era. Imo, for it to stand a sold chance in Japan for the long term, Japanese developers better pick up the pace with the releases and development time frame.

PS4 is getting cross platform titles from the off which is more than can be said of the PS3 launch plus it's not at a price where gamers would say that they'd buy it if it was cheaper, which made the PS3's situation in Japan even worse.

From a Japaneese developing point of view I hope the PS3 is the worse that it got for the PlayStation brand* in Japan.

*Vita excluded -whistles-

 

[Melchiah]

ok:/?

Not bad, but I meant totally black with white stripes on it. =)

 

[Wotanik]

Not bad, but I meant totally black with white stripes on it. =)

 

[Skeff]

If you look at WiiU vs PS4 in West. People are not buying PS4 because it has better library or launch games. It is for the games coming in rest of 2014, 2015....

It was the same case with PS2 launch. It had a great list of announced titles, with every studio in Japan making games for PS2.

For PS4.. there is nothing in the pipe line.. it is worse than WiiU for Japan. No monster hunter, mario, zelda.. nothing.

I thought FF15 and KH3 were in the pipeline....they sound like they'd do well in Japan.

Also Using your own list of top selling games in Japan, you know Yakuza Ishin is a launch title right?

 

[Melchiah]

Haha, not as good as I thought it would be.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

2012 best sellers. This is very similar in 2009, 2010, 2011 too.

01. Pokémon Black/White 2 2,919,977
02. Animal Crossing: New Leaf 1,969,955
03. New Super Mario Bros. 2 1,743,791
04. Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry’s Wonderland 3D 919,870
05. Resident Evil 6 833,012
06. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 828,150
07. Mario Kart 7 748,797
08. Super Mario 3D Land 689,374
09. Mario Party 9 641,348
10. Dragon Quest X 609,783
11. Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate 602,058
12. Yakuza 5 518,224
13. Dragon’s Dogma 467,375
14. Fire Emblem: Awakening 455,268
15. Tales of Xillia 2 428,913
16. Paper Mario: Sticker Star 402,133
17. Pro Evolution Soccer 2013 399,340
18. Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Gates of Infinity 373,699
19. New Super Mario Bros. U 369,392
20. Wii Sports Resort (w/ MotionPlus pack-in) 358,627

Its just like the West where western games are usually the best selling with a few notable exceptions albeit to a less extreme extent.

GTA V : 705k and still selling
COD BO2: 450k
BF3 : 167k
ND games usually do 150-200k

Not to mention there are a lot of new IP's coming out this year. Japan is getting more accustomed to Western games and they are selling batter on the PS3 than the PS2 despite the latter having twice the user base.

If you look at WiiU vs PS4 in West. People are not buying PS4 because it has better library or launch games. It is for the games coming in rest of 2014, 2015....

It was the same case with PS2 launch. It had a great list of announced titles, with every studio in Japan making games for PS2.

For PS4.. there is nothing in the pipe line.. it is worse than WiiU for Japan. No monster hunter, mario, zelda.. nothing.

Firstly MH is a portable franchise. WiiU MH3 port did like 300k iirc. Secondly Zelda is in steep decline on consoles in Japan. WWHD did 30k and SS did like 200k.

Lastly, oy yes PS4 has nothing in the pipeline.....except the biggest console games like FF15, KH3, MGSV and probably RE as well.

 

[Pricken]

http://www.sankeibiz.jp/business/news/140219/bsc1402192217007-n1.htm

Doesn't necessarily mean much, but the Executive Vice President of Namco Bandai Games, Unosawa Shin, said during a gathering of industry people on the 19th of February that "I could see the PS4 selling 300 000 - 500 000 units in Japan before the end of march, and 6 million in the rest of the world."

The fact that he only predicted 6 million units across the world before the fiscal year ends feels a bit off, which made me doubt my translation a few times, but I think I got it right.

The regular threads I've seen over on 2ch on the subject also shows a general consensus that anything above 300 000 in the current console climate would match expectations, taking into consideration that both the WiiU and the Vita managed to pass 300k.

I think that one of the reasons that both of the next-gen consoles sold so well (even including the WiiU at the very start of its release) was the long span between generations, and a lot of people thus jumped on the new ones as soon as they came out. But these things are always hard to predict, and the fact that the PS4 is selling gangbusters overseas probably will have a small impact on the Japanese release as well, but to what degree we can only wait and see.

One small "concern" that often comes up on 2ch is that it's still possible, or at least was until recently, to pre-order the PS4 this late and so close to release. That's hard to put into perspective though, as we don't have any clear numbers on how many units they have stockpiled for their launch.

 

[JPHJ]

I can personally attest to significant hype in my area of Japan. Many of my students in Fukushima have been talking non stop about the release since the start of February. They're excited!

That said I'm thinking all shipped units will sell quickly and I expect supply to be somewhere between 450k and 475k. Just an educated guess

So yes heres why it will do very well imo. Young people in the internet age cannot ignore a world craze (ps4) the hype gets in and it spreads. It becomes the cool thing. I don't see why japan would be much different to anywhere else.

Their countries product is again sweeping the world, gaining much praise. Must help create a bit of a buzz inside Japan where some news and events over recent times hasn't been great.

 

[crinale]

Are they even making games for the PS4?

I don't think they annoucned anything yet. All I know is that they are doing PS4 giveaway campaign at official Tales series website but I'm not sure that's an indication of something.

 

[Dragon]

Honestly, I think PS4 will sell admirably well the first few weeks or even months but what concerns me is the long term. It will probably perform better than Wii U, but not as good as PS3 imo. I don't think there will be near as many Japanese games carrying the system as it was in the PS3 era. Imo, for it to stand a sold chance in Japan for the long term, Japanese developers better pick up the pace with the releases and development time frame.

If it doesn't sell better than the WiiU Sony might as well not sell it in Japan.

 

[SuicidalSteve]

I prefer a green and purple colour myself

 

[mattiewheels]

Anyone know how many Wii's sold in its first quarter back in '07?

 

[SwiftDeath]

when exactly is the Japan launch in EST

Will we have an official ps4 Japanese launch thread?

Already created

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=770342

 

[Waaghals]

I'm LTTP on this thread, but I have a comment regarding TF helping the Xbone.

I think it will stabilize the Bone, keeping it in the game. With the most marked improvement being in the US.

I think at best we will have a Halo situation; that is it will sell tons get quite a few new users to the console, but it won't weigh up for Sony's dominance in the rest of the world.

 

[SolidSnakex]

If you look at WiiU vs PS4 in West. People are not buying PS4 because it has better library or launch games. It is for the games coming in rest of 2014, 2015....

FIFA PS4 is sitting at or near the top of nearly every European chart. Ghosts and Battlefield 4 are also doing well. I'm not sure why some continue to try to downplay the importance of multiplatform games.

 

[Cat]

Already created

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=770342

Thanks, I've been wondering about that.

 

[S¡mon]

FIFA PS4 is sitting at or near the top of nearly every European chart. Ghosts and Battlefield 4 are also doing well. I'm not sure why some continue to try to downplay the importance of multiplatform games.

This. Sure, for a lot of people exclusives are important... but the vast majority of 'casual gamers' are looking for FIFA, Call of Duty, Need For Speed, Battlefield, etc.

 

[Nirolak]

FIFA PS4 is sitting at or near the top of nearly every European chart. Ghosts and Battlefield 4 are also doing well. I'm not sure why some continue to try to downplay the importance of multiplatform games.

Judging by sales at this point third parties are actually a lot more relevant than first parties.

I'd argue that most of the PS4's advantage over the Xbox One comes from being $100 cheaper and running every game either the same or (quite often) better, making it the preferred place for multiplatform games, except for consumers who don't find performance or price relevant factors.

If all things are equal the exclusives start becoming the deciding factor, but we don't even need to get that far this generation.

Now, sometimes exclusives can totally sway someone one way or the other even if performance and price are major factors for them, but for the bulk of consumers this isn't really the case these days.

 

[Dead Prince]

http://www.sankeibiz.jp/business/news/140219/bsc1402192217007-n1.htm

Doesn't necessarily mean much, but the Executive Vice President of Namco Bandai Games, Unosawa Shin, said during a gathering of industry people on the 19th of February that "I could see the PS4 selling 300 000 - 500 000 units in Japan before the end of march, and 6 million in the rest of the world."

The fact that he only predicted 6 million units across the world before the fiscal year ends feels a bit off, which made me doubt my translation a few times, but I think I got it right.

The regular threads I've seen over on 2ch on the subject also shows a general consensus that anything above 300 000 in the current console climate would match expectations, taking into consideration that both the WiiU and the Vita managed to pass 300k.

I think that one of the reasons that both of the next-gen consoles sold so well (even including the WiiU at the very start of its release) was the long span between generations, and a lot of people thus jumped on the new ones as soon as they came out. But these things are always hard to predict, and the fact that the PS4 is selling gangbusters overseas probably will have a small impact on the Japanese release as well, but to what degree we can only wait and see.

One small "concern" that often comes up on 2ch is that it's still possible, or at least was until recently, to pre-order the PS4 this late and so close to release. That's hard to put into perspective though, as we don't have any clear numbers on how many units they have stockpiled for their launch.

he's obviously reposting my numbers

300K
6 million WW

 

[Loudninja]

FIFA PS4 is sitting at or near the top of nearly every European chart. Ghosts and Battlefield 4 are also doing well. I'm not sure why some continue to try to downplay the importance of multiplatform games.

Yeah those games are the best sellers.

The best selling exclusive is most likely KZ which shipped 2.1 million.

 

[Metalingus5150]

PS4 is going to do in between PS2 and PS3 number, somewhere in between. Bookmark this so you can laugh at me when I'm wrong.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Thanks, I've been wondering about that.

You're welcome

It's worth noting my countdowns are until 10:30 PM Japan Time when the festivities start, not when it goes on sale [goes on sale an hour and a half later at midnight]

 

[Anticitizen One]

The studio was ended after the February event.

#ThingsChange

Lucasarts is still alive though. They manage the Lucas IPs. So even though Dice is making Battlefront 3 it will still be labeled a Lucasarts title.

 

[Blackage]

GTAV... 700k+
GTAIV sold over 200k
CoD sells somewhere around 200k+
Battlefield sells over 100k
Sony first-party games from SSM and ND also sells over 100k

True, many gamers already purchased said games for the PS3, so next-gen sales will be extremely soft for these titles that were already released months in advance.

But the acceptance of western developed games are growing in Japan. It's slow, but it's a good thing that Japan is partially decoupling itself from only being attuned to Japanese-developed games. Of course, it's still a long journey. I'd be interested to see if GTAVI could break the 1million wall in Japan.

So while the short-term prospects are quite soft, the long-term prospects are better. The great current-gen sales should compell western devs to be more agile in abandoning last-gen, which when happens, should elevate Japan's hardware sales, since games previously playable on their PS3 will be next-gen only then.

That should hopefully happen by 2015. And I'd expect 2015 to also be the year where Japan finally starts releasing a steady stream of content for PS4.

I can imagine that Sony is desperately hoping that FFXV is a 2015 title. That, alongside the prospects of games leaving previous-gen by 2015 is arguably the boost that PS4 will need to lead the charge.

Does localization of Western games still suck in Japan? If a Japanese game comes to the US, we typically get English dub voice acting and full translation. Last I heard alot of Western devs don't bother using any Japanese voices and just sub the English.

 

[jiggle]

If it doesn't sell better than the WiiU Sony might as well not sell it in Japan.

Don't be silly
They still have an old trick to fall back on
Relaunching with a slim PS4
They've been relying on that since psp
Shame they can't just launch something right to begin with

 

[Lady Gaia]

Doesn't necessarily mean much, but the Executive Vice President of Namco Bandai Games, Unosawa Shin, said during a gathering of industry people on the 19th of February that "I could see the PS4 selling 300 000 - 500 000 units in Japan before the end of march, and 6 million in the rest of the world."

The fact that he only predicted 6 million units across the world before the fiscal year ends feels a bit off, which made me doubt my translation a few times, but I think I got it right.

Presuming your translation is correct, your interpretation may still be wrong. What is stated above is that by the end of March expected sales are 6 million for the rest of the world plus whatever sells in Japan. That feels utterly realistic to me. I expect around 6.5 million is achievable, but 7 is likely a big stretch.

 

[serversurfer]

I can personally attest to significant hype in my area of Japan. Many of my students in Fukushima have been talking non stop about the release since the start of February. They're excited!

How would you say hype compares to recent launches, such as Wii U, PS3, and Wii?

 

[Melchiah]

Lucasarts is still alive though. They manage the Lucas IPs. So even though Dice is making Battlefront 3 it will still be labeled a Lucasarts title.

I didn't know that.

 

[Rogue_Ledr]

Lucasarts is still alive though. They manage the Lucas IPs. So even though Dice is making Battlefront 3 it will still be labeled a Lucasarts title.

That's not really "alive" dude.

ITs more like a charlatan who assumes a dead man's identity.

 

[RedAssedApe]

I think I'm going to go conservative and go with the 250-300K predictions. Also might depend on how many Sony has even been able to stockpile for the launch.

 

[DrM]

In Croatia (and Slovenia AFAIK) pre-orders were not 100% fulfilled and complete March allocation is already soldout in advance. No idea about contigent after March, but since the new PS4 games will arrive in March/April, demand should continue.
.

Slovenia got bigger shipment than expected, but consoles were sold out on day one. Even the biggest supermarket store promoted PS4 in TV ads - for the first time in our history

Stores are selling X1, but nobody will buy it for 500+ €, diehard MS fans already got theirs from Austria...

 

[admartian]

My worry on PS4 & Xbox One is their sales might be too front-loaded due to the hype and the long wait from last gen.

Considering the gaming industry is shrunk (as per many analysts), their sales trends might have a huge drop when all hardcore gamers get their consoles. The main stream may not pick PS4 or Xbox One anytime soon.

So how high of PS4 and Xbox One LTD can reach is still a big question.

Yeah this has creeped up in my mind too.